Hi again. So, I was thinking about a "plausible" scenario of a German victory in the Second World War. So one of the premises is that Churchill dies and the order for the BEF to withdraw comes a week or so later than OTL, which means that the Germans are able to cut off and capture the majority of the force before it is able to be evacuated. Lord Halifax comes to power in the UK and starts to explore the possibility of a treaty with Germany; ITTL, the Italian diplomatic establishment, fearful that if Britain was conquered or subjugated by the Reich, Germany's position in Europe would be too powerful, dramatically reducing Italy's freedom of action, manages to convince Mussolini to play the role of the peace broker as he had done in Munich in 1938. The terms offered (or ultimately agreed) are that:
a) normal economic and trade relations between the two countries are restored (but British assets in continental Europe and in overseas territories under the control of European governments are expropriated by the Germans, perhaps in exchange for compensation)
b) Britain returns Tankanyika and British Cameroon and Togoland to Germany
c) a ten year non-aggression pact is signed between the two governments
d) the British government recognises the territorial and regime changes in Europe since 1939. Perhaps the Germans could not include France as far as government changes are concerned, to make it more acceptable as a condition, since Vichy was to a large extent a homegrown phenomenon with a strong dose of Anglophobia. The the governments in exile aren't supported any more, but their members are given a choice between returning or staying in Britain (and losing their citizenship perhaps).
So there is peace in early July 1940, after the surrender of the French government has cast further doubt in the ability of Britain to continue the war. I think that, contrary to what is usually said, the peace wouldn't be a break before Britain reentered the conflict: the psychological and moral effects would be quite significant; the Dominions would probably be unwilling to reenter the conflict, especially if Britain was considered to have acted quite unilaterally in its efforts to exit the war; and last, but not least, India would loom large, with its nationalist leadership still agitated by the fact that they hadn't been consulted before the declaration of war in the name of India by the viceroy and a Britain not exhausted by the war but with damaged prestige from having recognised defeat and worried about the future economic prospects perhaps being unwilling to give India its independence. While Japan might not strike, if the Dutch East Indies had been restored to a German-allied Netherlands (which could allow in theory the Japanese to get access to the oil reserves of the area) and the British could perhaps agree to supply them with materials, Britain would have to deal with enough problems to keep its government preoccupied; the invasion of the Soviet Union would probably be seen as a mixed blessing, since on the one hand it would keep Germany busy, yet on the other hand, it would be considered to bring German forces closer to areas vital for Britain, such as Iran. In India, independence would probably be a more protacted, messy and bloody affair than OTL.
As far as the other colonial powers in Asia, defeat would probably have made the colonial authorities more worried as local opposition to European rule would mount; perhaps Japan, which could grow more distanced from Germany if Berlin decided that with the war in the West over, the alliance with Japan was of lesser value perhaps than attempting to restore a status quo that would allow German economic interests to reenter the Far Eastern markets, could start supporting anti-European movements in South and Southeastern Asia.
So, what do are your thoughts on these topic? I am not very well versed, so my post isn't particularly detailed; if you need further clarifications on something, I'll try to give them.
a) normal economic and trade relations between the two countries are restored (but British assets in continental Europe and in overseas territories under the control of European governments are expropriated by the Germans, perhaps in exchange for compensation)
b) Britain returns Tankanyika and British Cameroon and Togoland to Germany
c) a ten year non-aggression pact is signed between the two governments
d) the British government recognises the territorial and regime changes in Europe since 1939. Perhaps the Germans could not include France as far as government changes are concerned, to make it more acceptable as a condition, since Vichy was to a large extent a homegrown phenomenon with a strong dose of Anglophobia. The the governments in exile aren't supported any more, but their members are given a choice between returning or staying in Britain (and losing their citizenship perhaps).
So there is peace in early July 1940, after the surrender of the French government has cast further doubt in the ability of Britain to continue the war. I think that, contrary to what is usually said, the peace wouldn't be a break before Britain reentered the conflict: the psychological and moral effects would be quite significant; the Dominions would probably be unwilling to reenter the conflict, especially if Britain was considered to have acted quite unilaterally in its efforts to exit the war; and last, but not least, India would loom large, with its nationalist leadership still agitated by the fact that they hadn't been consulted before the declaration of war in the name of India by the viceroy and a Britain not exhausted by the war but with damaged prestige from having recognised defeat and worried about the future economic prospects perhaps being unwilling to give India its independence. While Japan might not strike, if the Dutch East Indies had been restored to a German-allied Netherlands (which could allow in theory the Japanese to get access to the oil reserves of the area) and the British could perhaps agree to supply them with materials, Britain would have to deal with enough problems to keep its government preoccupied; the invasion of the Soviet Union would probably be seen as a mixed blessing, since on the one hand it would keep Germany busy, yet on the other hand, it would be considered to bring German forces closer to areas vital for Britain, such as Iran. In India, independence would probably be a more protacted, messy and bloody affair than OTL.
As far as the other colonial powers in Asia, defeat would probably have made the colonial authorities more worried as local opposition to European rule would mount; perhaps Japan, which could grow more distanced from Germany if Berlin decided that with the war in the West over, the alliance with Japan was of lesser value perhaps than attempting to restore a status quo that would allow German economic interests to reenter the Far Eastern markets, could start supporting anti-European movements in South and Southeastern Asia.
So, what do are your thoughts on these topic? I am not very well versed, so my post isn't particularly detailed; if you need further clarifications on something, I'll try to give them.
