AHC/WI: Delay or prevent industrialization in the United States

[Deleted member 97083]

If the USA hadn't been a quickly industrializing power in the 19th century, how would that change its development?

What would have delayed or prevented industrialization in the US for most of the 19th century? Slowing industrial growth to that of the Russian Empire, Ottoman Empire, or lower.

The POD must be 1776 or later, and the US must still exist.

Preferably, the US does not lose any territory, and the Confederate States still lose.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

I hate to sound cliché, but the geography means that the USA can focus on the economy. So if Britain industrializes, America isn't more than 30 years behind (I think one of the improved steam turbines was essentially taken by industrial spies in Britain)

 

[Pyramus]

Make the US less attractive to immigrants or make less immigrants come in the first place, for example prevent the Great Potato Famine.

 

[Earth Judicar]

The US in the early and mid 19th century had nearly every possible advantage, every blessing. Resources, access to water power, markets both domestic and foreign, a growing population.

I'm not sure how you prevent this after 1783. Perhaps the states fail to ratify the constitution and break up perhaps even wars break out between them. Perhaps the Indians are insanely lucky and hold them from the Ohio River valley and Mississippi River until later in the 19th century.

Wasn't there some Spanish conspiracy that involved an American General or something? Maybe Aaron Burr creates that republic of his?

The only way I can see industrialization being prevented are-civil war, foreign invasion and subversion, stalwart Indian resistance, etc...

This list would of course exclude things like mega natural disasters and so on.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

The US in the early and mid 19th century had nearly every possible advantage, every blessing. Resources, access to water power, markets both domestic and foreign, a growing population.

I'm not sure how you prevent this after 1783. Perhaps the states fail to ratify the constitution and break up perhaps even wars break out between them. Perhaps the Indians are insanely lucky and hold them from the Ohio River valley and Mississippi River until later in the 19th century.

Wasn't there some Spanish conspiracy that involved an American General or something? Maybe Aaron Burr creates that republic of his?

The only way I can see industrialization being prevented are-civil war, foreign invasion and subversion, stalwart Indian resistance, etc...

This list would of course exclude things like mega natural disasters and so on.

Sad to say, an Industrial America was inevitable by 1800. This makes a lot of AH around that time frame less interesting because authors have less room to maneuver (we're strained by OTL inevitability)

 

[Deleted member 97083]

I hate to sound cliché, but the geography means that the USA can focus on the economy.

Russian Empire had great geography for industrial development but had far slower per capita industrial development than other powers.

China had great geography for industrialization too, but it took until the 1960s/70s/80s for their industrialization to get going.

Political reasons of course held them back.

So if Britain industrializes, America isn't more than 30 years behind (I think one of the improved steam turbines was essentially taken by industrial spies in Britain)

Probably. But that would be a combination of many factors, geography being only one. High population providing labor and urbanization, yet low population density over a large area providing less disease and less malnourishment, abundant natural resources (part of geography I suppose), very high literacy in the US compared to most other countries at the time, as well as ease of migration and some extent of meritocracy. And New England already being urbanized.

Make the US less attractive to immigrants or make less immigrants come in the first place, for example prevent the Great Potato Famine.

That doesn't prevent New England and New England settlers in the Great Lakes region from forming industrial urban areas. And by the time of the Great Potato Famine, the US was already rapidly industrializing.

 

[Earth Judicar]

Sad to say, an Industrial America was inevitable by 1800. This makes a lot of AH around that time frame less interesting because authors have less room to maneuver (we're strained by OTL inevitability)

I'm inclined to agree with you, in fact I'd concede everything I listed would at best delay industrialization.

 

[GullibleCynic]

Maybe if Britain wins the War of 1812 decisively, resulting in new england independence. After that the slave states would have dominance, meaning the rest of the north, NY, NJ, Penn, Ohio, would be the states likely to secede. If the North had British aid they might be able to maintain their independence, possibly as a British protectorate along with New England. In either case the remaining US would be a de facto slave state through and through. This would likely lead to a focus away from industry and towards plantation agriculture. Even experiments with slave manned factories would not be likely to compete with British or Northern industries due to the ease of sabotage.

This would leave the US in a much more difficult position re: manifest destiny. Oregon would likely be British. Railroads would be much slower to develop, steamships and the Mississippi are good enough for quite a lot. Assuming Texas still revolts from Mexico it may well stay independent. California would likely remain independent in that case too. Alternatively both Texas and California might remain Mexican.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

I'm inclined to agree with you, in fact I'd concede everything I listed would at best delay industrialization.

Even delaying industrialization would have a big effect though. If the US was industrialized at 1850 levels in 1880, they would still be "industrialized" but they would be significantly behind.

The US early industrialization was boosted significantly by high tariffs. From 1792 to 1860, the percentage of the federal budget attained from tariffs hovered at 80-95%, and did not drop below 30% until 1916. This isn't the actual tariff rate, but the amount of the federal revenue coming from tariffs.

The actual tariff rates themselves were on average, 20-50% of the total value of imports until 1910. High tariffs in the 18th and 19th centuries allowed "infant industries" to develop in the United States without competing with the prices of British industrial goods which were much cheaper at the time.

If tariffs on manufactured goods were much lower especially in the north and it was cheaper to import British manufactured goods, it really could have delayed US industrialization; by how much, I'm not sure, but it would certainly have a significant effect.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Maybe with a pre-revolutionary war POD, we can make the whole nation ideologically tied to slavery. If it gets bad enough, America might be so low on the prestige scale that people only do trade reluctantly, which means not much place for American manufactured exports. Now, there would be zero trade (there is always someone who will buy the highest quality good and sell at a high price regardless of the source) but it might mean little capital to start up.

 

[Earth Judicar]

Even delaying industrialization would have a big effect though. If the US was industrialized at 1850 levels in 1880, they would still be "industrialized" but they would be significantly behind.

The US early industrialization was boosted significantly by high tariffs. From 1792 to 1860, the percentage of the federal budget attained from tariffs hovered at 80-95%, and did not drop below 30% until 1916. This isn't the actual tariff rate, but the amount of the federal revenue coming from tariffs.

The actual tariff rates themselves were on average, 20-50% of the total value of imports until 1910. High tariffs in the 18th and 19th centuries allowed "infant industries" to develop in the United States without competing with the prices of British industrial goods which were much cheaper at the time.

If tariffs on manufactured goods were much lower especially in the north and it was cheaper to import British manufactured goods, it really could have delayed US industrialization; by how much, I'm not sure, but it would certainly have a significant effect.

Well it makes sense the US would want to protect its industries from foreign competition, shelter and nurture its own markets and capital as was the policy of many developing economies in the 19th century.

I don't see how you could lower the tariffs.

 

[CaliGuy]

What would have delayed or prevented industrialization in the US for most of the 19th century? Slowing industrial growth to that of the Russian Empire, Ottoman Empire, or lower.

Have the Jamestown Colony fail in the early 1600s and thus have England decide not to bother with colonialism in North America. Thus, the U.S. ends up either under French or under Spanish rule and--due to the much smaller number of European migrants there--remains an economic backwater well into the 19th century and possibly beyond as well.

There--is that good enough for you?

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Changing the language of USA probably violates the OP's desirre

 

[CaliGuy]

I hate to sound cliché, but the geography means that the USA can focus on the economy. So if Britain industrializes, America isn't more than 30 years behind (I think one of the improved steam turbines was essentially taken by industrial spies in Britain)

The interesting thing is that the Southern U.S. appears to have been way behind in regards to industrialization in comparison to the Northern U.S.; at the very least, that's the impression that I get from looking at their historical urbanization rates:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urbanization_in_the_United_States

 

[Deleted member 97083]

Well it makes sense the US would want to protect its industries from foreign competition, shelter and nurture its own markets and capital as was the policy of many developing economies in the 19th century.

I don't see how you could lower the tariffs.

Slave states wanted to lower the tariffs, so give them more power and that should be enough to lower federal tariffs.

You could also have tariffs declared as illegal in the Constitution, due to anger at British tariffs that was simmering at the time of the Revolution. However, there would have to be some other method of revenue available to the federal government. Perhaps taxes on transportation, which both would be another system of revenue, and also hurt industrialization.

Or some convoluted system where individual states set their own tariffs and can tariff other states, and the federal government takes a share of each state tariffs but can't set its own federal tariff.

 

[CaliGuy]

Changing the language of USA probably violates the OP's desirre

If so, combine what I wrote above with a successful Spanish Armada in 1588. Thus, England still has colonies in North America but--as per the Spanish example--has much less European settlement there.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

Have the Jamestown Colony fail in the early 1600s and thus have England decide not to bother with colonialism in North America. Thus, the U.S. ends up either under French or under Spanish rule and--due to the much smaller number of European migrants there--remains an economic backwater well into the 19th century and possibly beyond as well.

There--is that good enough for you?

For this scenario, no PODs before 1776. The US must still exist.

 

[CaliGuy]

For this scenario, no PODs before 1776. The US must still exist.

So, have Britain win the American Revolutionary War, impose various punitive economic measures on its American colonies, and prevent its American colonies from expanding beyond the Proclamation Line of 1763.

 

[Deleted member 97083]

So, have Britain win the American Revolutionary War, impose various punitive economic measures on its American colonies, and prevent its American colonies from expanding beyond the Proclamation Line of 1763.

That would prevent the US from existing.

 

[Alex Zetsu]

Is there a reason a 1760s POD that still results in a successful revolution and all 13 splitting off into USA is not allowed?