Try to make a TL in which the Whites win the Russian Civil War, under the condition that the allies still win the Great War (the Whites are almost guaranteed to win with a Central Powers victory). I do not know much about the war, but I read from someone on this forum that the Whites' best chance of victory would be in October 1919, with a white General by the name of Denikin beating the Bolsheviks at the Battle of Oryol. I read that this would eventually butterfly to the Reds losing major cities and an eventual white victory. However, I don't know much about the RCW and so I ask this forum to try and create a timeline in which the White Army wins the Russian Civil War, without a Central Powers Victory in WWI.
AHC: White Victory in the Russian Civil War
- Thread starter victhemag
- Start date
I assume the massive coalition of republicans, conservatives and god-knows-what, in which case, it's going to be really hard. However, it's not impossible, and only requires the Whites to act concurrently to pressure the Reds on all front (even if they're not coordinating at all). Ideally, they need Trotsky to be removed for incompetence or in a power struggle or on permanent medical leave from a lead-induced migraine. After that, the Bolsheviks are pretty much dead.
All that said and done, the Civil War would still continue from there, because the Whites would promptly disintegrate into warring factions without a common enemy. Maybe a Russian rendition of the Chinese Warlords Era.
Why do people get the idea that the Germans would back the Whites? The latter--or at least the dominant forces among them--were violently anti-German. Consider the words of Kornilov: "The Provisional Government, under the pressure of the Bolshevik majority in the Soviets, acts in full agreement with the plans of the German General Staff . . . I cannot betray Russia into the hands of its historic enemy, the German tribe, and make the Russian people slaves of the Germans." https://books.google.com/books?id=kdQFBAAAQBAJ&pg=PA107 Denikin was "consistently anti-German as well as anti-Bolshevik." https://books.google.com/books?id=DdV3ZwaaPJoC&pg=PR19 See also a reference to Denikin's "stiff anti-German stance" at https://www.cambridge.org/core/serv...n-praeger-publishers-1970-319-pp-8-50-div.pdf To the Whites, the Bolsheviks' "sell-out" to Germany at Brest-Litovsk was one of their most heinous sins.
A Foreign Ministry memorandum from 1918 stated the German case for the Bolsheviks:
"In regard to Great Russia, we have only one overriding interest: to promote the forces of decomposition and to keep the country weak for a long time to come ... It is in our interest soon genuinely to normalize relations with Russia in order to seize the country's economy. The more we mix into this country's internal affairs, the wider will grow the chasm that already separates us from Russia.... It must not be overlooked that the Brest-Litovsk Treaty was ratified only by the Bolsheviks and not even by all of them.... It is, therefore, in our interest to have the Bolsheviks remain at the helm for the time being. In order to stay in power, they will, for now, do all they can to maintain toward us the appearance of loyalty and to respect the peace. On the other hand, their leaders, being Jewish businessmen, will before long give up their theories in favor of profitable commercial and transportation deals. Here we must proceed slowly but purposefully. Russia's transport, industry, and entire national economy must fall into our hands." https://books.google.com/books?id=5mSkxsos488C&pg=PA183 https://books.google.com/books?id=5mSkxsos488C&pg=PA184
To be sure, there were other leading Germans who thought the Bolsheviks a dangerous influence on German workers and soldiers, and wanted to overthrow them. And the Kaiser, in deciding against intervention in 1918, significantly said he was not foreclosing future opportunities. It may be that a victorious Germany would eventually try to replace the Bolsheviks with a puppet regime similar to Skoropadski's in Ukraine. Krasnov would be an obvious figurehead. But this is by no means certain, and anyway would be different from siding from the people who were the White leaders in OTL.
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Adding to this, weren't there quite a few times where the Germans actually assisted the Bolsheviks against the Whites and Allied interventions?
Consider avoiding Kornilov affair (Kerensky probably goaded Kornilov to dissolve Petrograd Soviet, but changed his mind in last moment and thrown Kornilov under the bus) - without it, Provisional Government won't ruin it's relation with military, and won't purge it out suspicion of another coup. So, even if Bolsheviks successfully storm Winter Palace, Whites will have more united front, whether they're lead by civilian socialist-liberal coalition government, or military junta under Kornilov.
Or, alternatively, have a more successful Kornilov affair. The Bolsheviks are disorganized but still around, and some of their leaders are either killed in the fighting or imprisoned. In the unrest, Kornilov attempts to pull a Yuan Shikai, declares himself Regent for the Tsar, resulting in the Bolsheviks, SRs, and Kadets forming a united front in 1918 as civil war breaks out. Ultimately, Russia resembles China a lot more than OTL, but power nominally belongs to the noncommunist Russian Republic at the end of the affair.