Is there any possible way for the United States and United Kingdom to conclude a ceasefire with Nazi Germany - or are both countries irrevocably committed to defeating Nazi Germany, whatever the consequences?
For this hypothetical, the United States has to join the war against Nazi Germany at some point (so it can't be a ceasefire only concluded between the United Kingdom and Germany)
Here are the rough contours of a scenario I've been thinking of:
-Stalin dies of a stroke in his dacha shortly after the fall of Minsk to Army Group Center
-The worst case scenario for the Soviets then unfolds. With the memory of the Great Purges still fresh in the minds of many, paranoia causes the Soviet leadership to fail come to a powersharing arrangement, and a number of ambitious individuals make a play to take power and purge potential rivals. There are multiple coup attempts (often motivated by a simple desire to take power or risk being the target of someone else's purge), some of which are successful. Some elements of the Soviet military might begin to align themselves with potential claimants to power, and there might be some degree of actual infighting between soviet units
-The Soviet War effort is thrown into complete disarray - front commanders aren't sure whose orders to follow, many military leaders are stripped of command over questions of loyalty, supplies aren't getting delivered as regularly as OTL, in the chaos much of the industry that was evacuated east IOTL falls into German hands
-Barbarossa is able to proceed according to the original plan (the diversion towards Kiev could perhaps be rendered moot if the general chaos allows Army Group South to avoid getting bogged down) by the end of 1941, Army Group North holds Leningrad, Army Group Center holds at least part of Moscow, and Army Group South holds Rostov-on-Don, ready to make a push into the Caucasus
-Japan still seems like they would have been on a collision course with the United States, so Pearl Harbor still occurs as OTL. I still feel like Germany would declare war on the United States here for the same reasons as OTL - but I suppose its possible they hold off on a DOW. Regardless of what Germany does, the undeclared war in the Atlantic is bound to bring America into the war in Europe within a few months of Pearl Harbor (it might be America declaring war after a U-boat sinks American flagged shipments of aid to the United Kingdom)
-the Soviet Union is in truly dire straights here, and looks to be on the verge of complete collapse, and begs the Western Allies to establish a Western Front
-in early 1942, the Nazis use freed up soldiers to clear out any remaining Soviet salients to shorten the front in preparation for a push to the south to secure the oil of the Caucasus
-Churchill and the British are reluctant to launch a Western Front this early (particularly because British and Commonwealth forces would supply the majority of soldiers for an invasion of Europe at this point), but are coerced into accepting the plan by Marshall and FDR
-Marshall and FDR are deeply worried about an imminent Soviet collapse that could free the German army to redeploy to the west (which would render a future invasion much more costly). German units are still mostly tied down in the east, so an invasion in 1942 presents a now or never opportunity to establish a bridgehead in Europe without massive loss of life
-the Western Allies begin to assemble forces for Operation Sledgehammer. Operation Torch is cancelled, reinforcements to Africa aren't dispatched, and Guadalcanal is delayed to provide necessary soldiers and lift for the operation
-Operation Sledgehammer is launched towards the end of the summer of 1942 (I'm admittedly unsure of how quickly the operation could be launched, so I'd be partial to the idea of delaying it if an invasion that early is simply unworkable), landing in the Cotentin peninsula with the aim of securing a bridgehead, building up a force, then undertaking a breakout in 1943.
-this invasion turns into a fiasco of unprecedented proportions, a mix of Gallipoli and Dieppe x10. It takes much longer to take Cherbourg than anticipated, and the Germans manage to wreck the port facilities before surrendering. The supply situations is tenuous at best. German units in France manage to keep the allies bottled up in the Cotentin peninsula as additional units from the East are rushed to France.
-the Luftwaffe, while not in ownership of the skies, is able to seriously contest the airspace of the allied bridgehead and inflict massive losses on the ground forces. Uboats also manage to sink some of the shipping bring supplies and reinforcements.
-a few months into the invasion, the Germans have accumulated a sufficient force in France, and begin to make an effort to dislodge the allies from the bridgehead. While the Germans suffer heavy casualties, they manage to throw the allies into the sea, with the UK and USA having to evacuate their invasion force, and many Americans and British soldiers being taken POW
-this disaster has two important political ramifications, Republicans take the House in 1942 (and pressure builds for a "Japan first" strategy), and a successful no confidence vote removes Churchill from office (assuming he doesn't resign), and he is replaced with Anthony Eden (though to be clear, this no confidence vote is more about the poor conduct of the war, rather than a desire to make peace)
Given this situation, would it be possible for some sort of ceasefire to transpire in the coming years between the Allies and Nazi Germany? Lets assume the Germans manage to finish off the Soviets in Europe, force the Soviet remnant into a ceasefire, or reach a point where the opposition faced is reduced to the point where substantial forces can be moved West.
Would a formal ceasefire be possible, or would the limit of plausibly be something akin to de facto ceasefire concluded in @CalBear 's Anglo/American Nazi War?
If my scenario is insufficient to prompt a ceasefire, are there any changes that could prompt one? or are the United States and United Kingdom destined to carry out the fight against Nazi Germany until complete victory is attained?
For this hypothetical, the United States has to join the war against Nazi Germany at some point (so it can't be a ceasefire only concluded between the United Kingdom and Germany)
Here are the rough contours of a scenario I've been thinking of:
-Stalin dies of a stroke in his dacha shortly after the fall of Minsk to Army Group Center
-The worst case scenario for the Soviets then unfolds. With the memory of the Great Purges still fresh in the minds of many, paranoia causes the Soviet leadership to fail come to a powersharing arrangement, and a number of ambitious individuals make a play to take power and purge potential rivals. There are multiple coup attempts (often motivated by a simple desire to take power or risk being the target of someone else's purge), some of which are successful. Some elements of the Soviet military might begin to align themselves with potential claimants to power, and there might be some degree of actual infighting between soviet units
-The Soviet War effort is thrown into complete disarray - front commanders aren't sure whose orders to follow, many military leaders are stripped of command over questions of loyalty, supplies aren't getting delivered as regularly as OTL, in the chaos much of the industry that was evacuated east IOTL falls into German hands
-Barbarossa is able to proceed according to the original plan (the diversion towards Kiev could perhaps be rendered moot if the general chaos allows Army Group South to avoid getting bogged down) by the end of 1941, Army Group North holds Leningrad, Army Group Center holds at least part of Moscow, and Army Group South holds Rostov-on-Don, ready to make a push into the Caucasus
-Japan still seems like they would have been on a collision course with the United States, so Pearl Harbor still occurs as OTL. I still feel like Germany would declare war on the United States here for the same reasons as OTL - but I suppose its possible they hold off on a DOW. Regardless of what Germany does, the undeclared war in the Atlantic is bound to bring America into the war in Europe within a few months of Pearl Harbor (it might be America declaring war after a U-boat sinks American flagged shipments of aid to the United Kingdom)
-the Soviet Union is in truly dire straights here, and looks to be on the verge of complete collapse, and begs the Western Allies to establish a Western Front
-in early 1942, the Nazis use freed up soldiers to clear out any remaining Soviet salients to shorten the front in preparation for a push to the south to secure the oil of the Caucasus
-Churchill and the British are reluctant to launch a Western Front this early (particularly because British and Commonwealth forces would supply the majority of soldiers for an invasion of Europe at this point), but are coerced into accepting the plan by Marshall and FDR
-Marshall and FDR are deeply worried about an imminent Soviet collapse that could free the German army to redeploy to the west (which would render a future invasion much more costly). German units are still mostly tied down in the east, so an invasion in 1942 presents a now or never opportunity to establish a bridgehead in Europe without massive loss of life
-the Western Allies begin to assemble forces for Operation Sledgehammer. Operation Torch is cancelled, reinforcements to Africa aren't dispatched, and Guadalcanal is delayed to provide necessary soldiers and lift for the operation
-Operation Sledgehammer is launched towards the end of the summer of 1942 (I'm admittedly unsure of how quickly the operation could be launched, so I'd be partial to the idea of delaying it if an invasion that early is simply unworkable), landing in the Cotentin peninsula with the aim of securing a bridgehead, building up a force, then undertaking a breakout in 1943.
-this invasion turns into a fiasco of unprecedented proportions, a mix of Gallipoli and Dieppe x10. It takes much longer to take Cherbourg than anticipated, and the Germans manage to wreck the port facilities before surrendering. The supply situations is tenuous at best. German units in France manage to keep the allies bottled up in the Cotentin peninsula as additional units from the East are rushed to France.
-the Luftwaffe, while not in ownership of the skies, is able to seriously contest the airspace of the allied bridgehead and inflict massive losses on the ground forces. Uboats also manage to sink some of the shipping bring supplies and reinforcements.
-a few months into the invasion, the Germans have accumulated a sufficient force in France, and begin to make an effort to dislodge the allies from the bridgehead. While the Germans suffer heavy casualties, they manage to throw the allies into the sea, with the UK and USA having to evacuate their invasion force, and many Americans and British soldiers being taken POW
-this disaster has two important political ramifications, Republicans take the House in 1942 (and pressure builds for a "Japan first" strategy), and a successful no confidence vote removes Churchill from office (assuming he doesn't resign), and he is replaced with Anthony Eden (though to be clear, this no confidence vote is more about the poor conduct of the war, rather than a desire to make peace)
Given this situation, would it be possible for some sort of ceasefire to transpire in the coming years between the Allies and Nazi Germany? Lets assume the Germans manage to finish off the Soviets in Europe, force the Soviet remnant into a ceasefire, or reach a point where the opposition faced is reduced to the point where substantial forces can be moved West.
Would a formal ceasefire be possible, or would the limit of plausibly be something akin to de facto ceasefire concluded in @CalBear 's Anglo/American Nazi War?
If my scenario is insufficient to prompt a ceasefire, are there any changes that could prompt one? or are the United States and United Kingdom destined to carry out the fight against Nazi Germany until complete victory is attained?