AHC: the Franco-Prussian war Escalates
- Thread starter Ellis MacVey
- Start date
I would say Slovakia is possible, but Czechia more unlikely, as it had many germans and would be part of a Grossdeutschland.
So let's consider every factor here.
In order to see Hungary become independent, Austria needs to enter the war, which likely ends with Prussia and its German allies defeating both, with Hungary likely in revolt. Russia doesn't NEED to enter the war, but it'd be in their immediate geopolitical self-interest. Them entering the war means that Austria is not going to survive. If Prussia beats Austria on their own, Bismarck (who wanted a united Germany under Prussia that did not include Austria, because he wanted a united Germany under Prussian hegemony, which Austria would be able to prevent from completely dominating the empire) might let Austria off the hook with potentially just a few minor border concessions (not that he necessarily would, but he did want good relations with Austria after the Austro-Prussian War). If Russia gets in on the action, they can be the hammer making sure Austria, arguably Russia's biggest rival on the continent sans maybe Britain, is no longer an independent empire posing a threat to Russian interests in the Balkans. In addition, this is an opportunity for territorial expansion, which is Galicia. Add in the good relations between Bismarck's Prussia and Russia, and you'd see why Russia is likely to enter this war with Prussia, because even though we can see it would go against Russia's long-term interests by strengthening Germany compared to OTL, Alexander II and other Russians can't see how this is going to come bite them in the ass. So while Russia doesn't NEED to join, if Austria is siding with France, Russia is going to side with Prussia.
I seriously doubt they could get either. Galicia is likely, but Slovakia would be considered an integral part of Hungary by many Hungarians. Thus, it probably stays Hungarian, unless Russia gets greedy (which I doubt, because they'd realize that would be asking for too much and would be handicapping themselves just by asking for it. They'd likely fail to get it and worsen their international prestige, especially in terms of relations with Hungary), so no. Czechia is 100% becoming part of Germany in this scenario. Hungary would likely be semi-independent with ties to both Russia and Germany. Initially they'd favor good relations with Russia, whereas long-term they'd likely become German allies due to Russian Pan-Slavism.
I also have a few questions of my own:
Who'd be an independent Hungary's king?
Assuming Spain joins Prussia in this war, what territories might they gain, how large an indemnity could they expect from France, and what effect would this larger indemnity have on the French economy?
Could Italy be compelled to join Prussia, what territories might they gain, how large an indemnity could they expect from France, and what effect would this larger indemnity have on the French economy?
And perhaps most importantly, how would Austria-Hungary plausibly join this fight?
If not a hohenzollern, the House of Magnates wanted to elevated the Count of Croy to kings
Even bismarck knew russia was not a true friend, so he will avoid using russia unless britain enter the war.
Well, yes, but Bismarck is not the Russian government. Russia would go into the war completely by its own initiative, with the "alliance" with Prussia being the casus belli. They'd be joining on their own out of their own self-interest, so it doesn't matter that Bismarck didn't want them to join Prussia and the German states. They'd join because they'd want to, not because Bismarck told them to do so.
Also, Bismarck would never consider Russia a true friend, but he feared nothing more than Russia as a direct enemy of Germany. A Franco-Russian alliance was a terrifying prospect to Bismarck, because fighting a war on two fronts is a bad idea (See Germany in WW1 and WW2). France was never going to align itself with Germany, so in order to prevent a Franco-Russian alliance, Germany was going to have to maintain good relations with Russia. Thus, Bismarck kissed Russia's ass in order to stay on good terms and avoid the nightmare Wilhelm II would later find himself in.
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I think you're overestimating what Bismarck do with Russia..that was like a non-aggresion treaty that an alliance, meaning russia have no CB at all, worse, russia act like you act and we would see a second crimea war with the british DOW Russia when prussia/germany was their hands all of it.
Bismarck's not doing anything with Russia, they are acting 100% independently from him. They are declaring war because they view it to be in their best geopolitical interests
Britain wouldn't declare war on Russia over this in 1870. They'd be angry, but this is the era of Splendid Isolation. The British public would be against such a war and Gladstone wouldn't declare war over this. Britain would rather this not happen, but unless Russia or Germany tries to deliberately piss them off they're not moving a finger over this.
Say hello to the British and the second crimea war.
Yet the Imperialist are not stupid, they fought crimea less a decade ago, this means a second crimea war
1st Crimea war was minor loss for Russia. Replace France whit Austria-Hungry. Russia can win this one. Maybe Italy can help.
Yes, but it is more possible than Bohemia. I agree it was far from likely to happen, and just meant that it was possible for Russia get the Panslavism(though it was be a terrible idea, like others said).
Also, this scenario is after South Germany joined, right? In that case, Austria might be seen as a traitor to the Germans(even though Prussia had pushed them out), and there might be pan-Germans annoyed in Austria for helping France against all the German states. How numerous and powerful were pan-Germans in Austria?
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Britain isn't in the mood for any war in 1870. The Crimean War was a PR nightmare for the Aberdeen ministry and led to its downfall, so I seriously doubt they could get the populace in favor of war - whoever is in charge at the moment likely gets booted out in the next election because most Brits would be anti-war. Also, the person in charge is Gladstone, who isn't going out of his way to get the British into a war with Russia neither he nor the people want. As bad as the results of this war are for Britain, the nation is just not in the mood for war and the imperialists aren't going to gain any traction for war because of politics, in that no one is particularly eager to be in office having to defend an extremely unpopular war.
Also consider that Britain can't do much in this war. By the time Britain starts thinking about maybe, maybe fighting Russia, Prussia will most likely already have overrun France. France is just about the only front on which Britain could do anything. Sending troops elsewhere would be too long a voyage and lack a clear jumping-off point. Crimea had Anatolia as a jumping-off point for an invasion of Crimea. In this war, without France, everywhere else is too far from a practical staging location to battle and/or London. If France is already overrun, they have nothing to do. So it'd just be a dumb war that would likely end with a few lost ships and the government getting replaced next election by an anti-war faction. So from analyzing British politics of the time, I honestly believe Britain wouldn't do anything, because it has neither the capacity nor political will to do anything. Britannia may rule the waves, but it doesn't rule the terra firma of Europe.
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Can this result in a sort of Spanish civil war? I mean, if the Prussians have Leopold actually claim the Spanish throne for himself, the French can try to back up other pretenders like future Alfonso XII? Aside from that, like the others have said, Austria and Denmark are possible allies for France, but it would be hard to get them on board.
I think the Spanish had already decided on Leopold. France could try, but he would have little legitimacy. Spain might fight France instead of a Civil War. Also, Napoleon would probably just use the Pyrennes mountain range as a defensive barrier with garrisons to focus on Germany. Denmark and Austria would probably join if France was winning, which seems very unlikely.
Czechoslovakia was part of Austria not Hungry. But maybe in 19 centry in was difrent.
The Ausgleich had happened, giving the Kingdom of Hungary a lot of autonomy. Czechia in the Austrian half, and Slovakia in the Hungarian one, though both ruled by the Habsburgs.
The land in the Kingdom of Hungary was the same as the medieval kingdom, so it was considered core Hungarian land.
This just about summarizes the situation in Spain. If Leopold is crowned, they're going to side with Prussia (mostly because if Leopold is actually crowned King of Spain, Napoleon III is going to declare war).
As for Austria joining, you don't need France to win. You just need for Hungarians to have less influence in the government, which would give Franz Josef the ability to declare war (as he wanted to) without knowingly pissing off the Hungarians. They'd rebel, but without their influence at the top, Franz Josef might not realize until it's too late. Does anyone how to reduce Hungarian influence in Austria circa 1870 (no/different Ausgleich?).
100% right about Denmark.
Slovakia was part of Hungary (and considered integral at that point), while Bohemia and Moravia (what we'd call Czechia) were Austrian.
Who was the Count of Croy in 1870?
Which Hohenzollern would be in consideration to take the Hungarian throne?
Talking about Hohenzollern thrones, what would Romania do? I think they had a Hohenzollern now, and if the Hohenzollerns rule Hungary after the war, the interaction would be interesting. Would a Calvinist be necessary? I know the nobles were Calvinist at some point and am unsure when/if they converted to Catholicism.
They did, Carol I, and as a matter of fact he was the younger brother of Leopold (the guy who Bismarck tried to put on the Spanish throne about this time). He didn't have any kids, which led to Leopold's younger son Ferdinand succeeding him when he died. I'd imagine something similar would happen if Leopold were to take the Spanish throne, with his older son Wilhelm becoming king of Spain and Ferdinand becoming King of Romania (with him moving to Romania once it is clear Carol will probably die childless). In the short term however, Romania is focused on their problems with the Ottomans. Not sure how they'd interact in terms of passive diplomacy, as I don't know about the brotherly relations between Leopold and Carol or Wilhelm and Ferdinand. This is largely speculative on my part, however.