A lot of the "inevitable" things about WW1 are not even probably, much less inevitable. Often they are self fulling prophecy in action. I wrote a German win ATL where I tried to handle butterflies honestly, and endup wanking the hell out of the Ottomans. The A-H ended up nice too, and ended up dominating Poland with a good military reputation. You want a different scenario, and I think you can get that. What is required is that a couple years before the war, you get a better A-H GHQ. And let us start the rest on time. So a good GHQ would
- Run War Plan Russia, not War Plan Serbia. This will keep the eastern front from collapsing. Wiking has a partially finished ATL that goes much along these lines, if memory serves me correctly.
- GHQ does not lose its nerve, and encircles the Russian 5th Army.
- We need Germany to do worse. Have Russia decide to do a Germany first strategy. We may want the UK to view Germany as the weak link, not the Ottomans.
So now we have some ideas for a better A-H with a dual POD, or a POD plus a couple of butterflies. So lets go with the ATL.
1914: War starts on time. A-H runs War Plan Russia. IOTL, the Russians had 7 armies at first, then going to 10 armies. Of the first 7, two goes against Germany, five versus A-H. Here the A-H destroy one Russian army. Due to the initial German retreat in Prussia, Tsar Nicholas decides to divert a third army to attack Prussia. One more army than OTL. So now we have three armies attacking Prussia, and three armies attacking A-H. I will leave German performance alone, so they can still win Tannenberg. Notice that the Austrians are holding their lines well, and have superior forces. Concentrating to excess on Prussia and the loss of the 5th Army leaves Poland open which A-H occupies against light resistance. We go to winter of 1914-15. Where Austria is holding its defensive lines well, and has occupied large parts of Poland.
Winter 1914/15: Russia keeps pounding Germany in the East. Race to the Sea went a lot like OTL. German is beginning to see some manpower issues, but is too proud to ask for help. Austria is good shape, and we have save their NCO cadre compared to OTL. Looking at the map, A-H wants to deal with Serbia quickly. A-H is a lot more dominant diplomatically than Germany compared to OTL. A-H gets Bulgaria to enter the war earlier by cutting some backroom deals with Bulgaria. Bulgaria enters the war early. Lets have the UK still do Gallipoli. Russia and France plan to pound Germany in 1915.
Spring 1915: The Serbian campaign goes well. Germany is taking a beating. So are the Ottomans. Since A-H is in good shape, they start taking the strategic initiative. It is Austrian artillery units (maybe using German artillery) who are transferred to help Gallipoli. These units get the glory for turning the tide. The actual battle goes much as OTL or better, or chance. The Austrians also have a couple more divisions on the Italian border compare to OTL. And we get to the moment that defines A-H greatness. Italy still enters the war, but with stronger defenses, the Italians are stopped cold. A-H is viewed as a savior of the Ottomans. The Germans are struggling in Prussia. So A-H launches a major offensive around June or July to relieve pressure. It works, and it can be different types of attacks. Maybe a major drive towards Kiev that forces the Russians to transfer troops from Prussia to the Ukraine. Or a major drive right towards Minsk.
Self fulling Prophecy: We are not where things compound. The Entente view Germany as the weak link since Germany has been the only real target of the Entente, and has struggled. A-H has been given relatively easy wins. The 1916 plan is to knock Germany out of the war. Austria is taking over more and more of the Eastern front so German forces can be used in the west. Austrian divisions are even key to holding parts of Prussia. Then just keep up this ATL. Either side can win, and you will have a situation where A-H had a great reputation. Italy is handled without need for help. Serbia falls quickly. Eastern Front is generally a win for A-H. Careful analysis will still show German divisions are better, but the masses will point to 3-4 years of A-H victories as proof the Hapsburgs run a better military.