AHC: Strong Liberal Democracy in Brazil

[John Fredrick Parker]

With PoDs preferably in the 20th Century (nothing before 1831, at the very earliest), how can liberal democratic institutions in Brazil plausibly be made by the 21st Century? How do these changes, necessary to the challenge, change Brazil's history, culture, and identity as a whole? And what is the larger effect of this upon world history?

Calling Brazil experts - @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro etc

 

[Gukpard]

With PoDs preferably in the 20th Century (nothing before 1831, at the very earliest), how can liberal democratic institutions in Brazil plausibly be made by the 21st Century? How do these changes, necessary to the challenge, change Brazil's history, culture, and identity as a whole? And what is the larger effect of this upon world history?

Calling Brazil experts - @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro etc

Aaand senpai forgot me...

Well, a possibility is by having the paulista elite to accept a federalized Brazil in 1932, many states wanted to support their revolt to overthrow the provisory government but since the paulistas wanted São Paulo to keep leading Brazil this scared them from doing that. If they adopt a more national name for the party instead of "paulistan United front" and promises a free federal republic you can expect them to win the war.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Hm, if it is possible to preserve Brazilian Democracy after the 1930 Revolution, and stop Vargas from establishing a dictatorship, that does make for some interesting possibilities. If there had been an open and (at least somewhat) honest Presidential Election in 1938, who (party or candidate) might have stood a fair chance of winning?

Aaand senpai forgot me.

Sorry; I could only think of a couple of Brazil experts off the top of my head.

 

[Gukpard]

Hm, if it is possible to preserve Brazilian Democracy after the 1930 Revolution, and stop Vargas from establishing a dictatorship, that does make for some interesting possibilities. If there had been an open and (at least somewhat) honest Presidential Election in 1938, who (party or candidate) might have stood a fair chance of winning?

Sorry; I could only think of a couple of Brazil experts off the top of my head.

The thing is that the democracy stabilished after the 1930 revolution wasn't a liberal one, it was higly interventionist and showing the beginnings of the populist influence of the mass moviments.

The main candidates for 1938 are Plínio Salgado for the far right, Armando Salles for the liberals and José Américo de Almeida as Vargas sucessor. The most likely win is José Americo or Salgado since Salles as a good member of the paulistan elite was barely known outside SP while Vargas and Salgado were known nationwide. If you got Américo you migh have a continuing republic of 1934, but if you get Salgado it is very likely that he holds some form of referendum like the portuguese 1933 referendum and make a authoritarian right wing state like the portuguese new state.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

The thing is that the democracy stabilished after the 1930 revolution wasn't a liberal one, it was higly interventionist and showing the beginnings of the populist influence of the mass movements.

Well, economic interventionism is only really in conflict with "classical liberalism", and only debatably an issue for liberal constitutional democracy as such; while Vargas' style of economic populism certainly in conflict of the latter though, at least by 1937, I would say the question becomes whether the long term health of democratic institutions would have been better served by averting OTL's 1930 Revolution altogether and preserving the Old Republic, or whether Vargas style leftism could have been absorbed into a functional, competitive multiparty republic (similar to New Deal liberalism in the US). Thoughts?

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Well, economic interventionism is only really in conflict with "classical liberalism", and only debatably an issue for liberal constitutional democracy as such; while Vargas' style of economic populism certainly in conflict of the latter though, at least by 1937, I would say the question becomes whether the long term health of democratic institutions would have been better served by averting OTL's 1930 Revolution altogether and preserving the Old Republic, or whether Vargas style leftism could have been absorbed into a functional, competitive multiparty republic (similar to New Deal liberalism in the US). Thoughts?

I think it's very unlikely because in the 1930s the liberals were completely down, as @Gukpard said, Salgado and Vargas were the main candidates, and with "main" i mean probably the only ones with the ability to win, i think that in the 20th century it is too late for this, the height of liberalism in Brazil was in the 1870s and 1880s, perhaps if Deodoro did not make the coup that took the monarchy out of power liberalism could be well introduced (since Princess Isabel even had desires of making Brazil the first country in the world until women suffrage). Because after the establishment of the Old Republic, it was much more oligarchy and when it came out of that, the fame was for the populists

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

@Talus I of Dixie So it sounds like you think the more ideal PoD (for the OP) is during the reign of Pedro II; how would you change things?

perhaps the brazilian government fulfilling the promise made to the slaves who fought in the Paraguayan War, this would ensure the support of the army in the period of abolition, and without support from the army you did not have a coup of 89, this would also indirectly, leave the brazilians more patriots probably, and the rest would be as i said, Princess Isabel becoming Queen and Brazil becoming a more liberal and democratic country, the existence of the Old Republic represented more to our history than most brazilians think

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

With PoDs preferably in the 20th Century (nothing before 1831, at the very earliest), how can liberal democratic institutions in Brazil plausibly be made by the 21st Century? How do these changes, necessary to the challenge, change Brazil's history, culture, and identity as a whole? And what is the larger effect of this upon world history?

Calling Brazil experts - @Vinization @Guilherme Loureiro etc

On paper, the Brazilian First Republic could be that; in reality, it was an oligarchical state masquerading itself as a liberal republic. What rose after it was, as already mentioned, born in opposition to it and therefore biased towards centralization(and later authoritarianism). Thing is, I don't think you can reform the First Republic without force, and once you open that bottle, it's hard to keep the genie of centralization inside it.

Since the OP said no PODs before 1831, my options would be either changing things in the 1891 Constitution or changing the order that arose in the late 1890's. It's tempting to go for a Brazil with no "Política dos Governadores", but that was what stabilized the First Republic, and an unstable First Republic is one that can quickly become an authoritarian state.

EDIT: Fixed typo

 

[TastySpam]

Brazil did become a stable liberal democracy in the 21st century (albeit quite late into the century).

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Brazil did become a stable liberal democracy in the 21st century (albeit quite late into the century).

That... well at best, that remains to be seen. (I don't want to get too much into Chat territory talking about the election of Bolsanaro or the circumstances thereof.)

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Brazil did become a stable liberal democracy in the 21st century (albeit quite late into the century).

democracy - yes
liberal - maybe
stable - ehhhhhhhhhhhhh, no

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

perhaps the brazilian government fulfilling the promise made to the slaves who fought in the Paraguayan War, this would ensure the support of the army in the period of abolition, and without support from the army you did not have a coup of 89, this would also indirectly, leave the brazilians more patriots probably, and the rest would be as i said, Princess Isabel becoming Queen and Brazil becoming a more liberal and democratic country, the existence of the Old Republic represented more to our history than most brazilians think

Since the OP said no PODs before 1831, my options would be either changing things in the 1891 Constitution or changing the order that arose in the late 1890's. It's tempting to go for a Brazil with no "Política dos Governadores", but that was what stabilized the First Republic, and an unstable First Republic is one that can quickly become an authoritarian state.

Well, a possibility is by having the paulista elite to accept a federalized Brazil in 1932, many states wanted to support their revolt to overthrow the provisory government but since the paulistas wanted São Paulo to keep leading Brazil this scared them from doing that. If they adopt a more national name for the party instead of "paulistan United front" and promises a free federal republic you can expect them to win the war.

So far we've discussed PoDs in the Imperial Era, (the founding of) the Old Republic, and the Vargas Era.

Might as well ask then - could Brazil have managed to keep its multiparty republic after the Vargas Era (so post 1955 Election), not only averting the 1964 Coup but managing to maintain a functioning democracy long enough to be considered stable (by modern day)? We've talked here before about Quadros serving his full term as a possible PoD; would that work?

 

[Guilherme Loureiro]

So far we've discussed PoDs in the Imperial Era, (the founding of) the Old Republic, and the Vargas Era.

Might as well ask then - could Brazil have managed to keep its multiparty republic after the Vargas Era (so post 1955 Election), not only averting the 1964 Coup but managing to maintain a functioning democracy long enough to be considered stable (by modern day)? We've talked here before about Quadros serving his full term as a possible PoD; would that work?

What I've seen so far about the 1946-64 Republic doesn't give much hope for it enduring, even if you have Quadros actually staying as president for his whole term. The next presidential elections would feature JK, Lacerda and either Jango or Brizola(probably Jango, but Brizola was positioning himself for the presidential run; Jango and Brizola would have to either settle of fight for it). I don't think Lacerda would win, so it would go either to JK(IMO, likelier) or to whomever the PTB chooses as candidate. If the PTB candidate wins, we're back to what Jango's government was in OTL. If JK wins, then we push the deluge 5 years further...

... But, eventually, the PTB will win the presidential elections, and given the attitudes and passions of the era, I don't see it going well. That's why I'd go for earlier PODs; what Vargas unleashed has arguably not been... I hesitate to say 'dealt with' as this may give a wrong impression, perhaps 'digested' would be better, until today.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If [Kubitschek] wins, then we push the deluge 5 years further ... But, eventually, the PTB will win the presidential elections, and given the attitudes and passions of the era, I don't see it going well.

Well that's the thing, isn't it? The attitudes and passions of the era might die off if held at bay long enough for a new era to come about; there could well be a difference between getting a PTB President in 1971 and 1961. If Quadros staying in office allows Brazilian democratic politics to at least function until the next election, and the next president (say it is Kubitschek again, if that makes it easier) manages to get Brazil out of whatever fixes the country gets into during that time, than tensions might be cool enough by 1970 that a more left leaning, populist government are allowed some grumbling legitimacy by the nation's more conservative population and stakeholders.

 

[Workable Goblin]

On paper, the Brazilian First Republic could be that; in reality, it was an oligarchical state masquerading itself as a liberal republic. What rose after it was, as already mentioned, born in opposition to it and therefore biased towards centralization(and later authoritarianism). Thing is, I don't think you can reform the First Republic without force, and once you open that bottle, it's hard to keep the genie of centralization inside it.

Ehhhhh, centralization is orthogonal to being a liberal democracy...I mean, France is famously pretty centralized, but has been fairly consistently a reasonably liberal state since the 1870s (with the obvious exception of Vichy France). I would think a perception that liberal institutions are too favorable to the wealthy and powerful would be a bigger problem...

 

[Gukpard]

Well, economic interventionism is only really in conflict with "classical liberalism", and only debatably an issue for liberal constitutional democracy as such; while Vargas' style of economic populism certainly in conflict of the latter though, at least by 1937, I would say the question becomes whether the long term health of democratic institutions would have been better served by averting OTL's 1930 Revolution altogether and preserving the Old Republic, or whether Vargas style leftism could have been absorbed into a functional, competitive multiparty republic (similar to New Deal liberalism in the US). Thoughts?

If there is no 1930 then it is a question of time until democracy is extinguished in Brazil.

You have to understand that only because a country is a republic, it doesn't means that is democratic. The first democratically elected president of Brazil was Eurico Dutra in 1946, and the first elected was Vargas in 1934 in a indirect election. All the "presidents" from Deodoro (that was actually a military dictator) until Julio Prestes were appointed and their elections had completely made up results, in 1926 for example the official results claim that Washington Luís had 99,6% of the votes. If you have that completely bankrupt system to continue, on a era that democracy was down then it is almost assured that someone radical would take over, either from the far right (a junta by the army, the integralistas or a fascista group) or the far left like the Communists.

The 1946 republic can be saved, and that is my favourite pod for Brazil. To understand more please check the thread "no military regime in Brazil".

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

If there is no 1930 then it is a question of time until democracy is extinguished in Brazil.

You have to understand that only because a country is a republic, it doesn't means that is democratic...

Yeah, I did figure as much; I’m far, far less familiar with Brazilian history than other members here (like yourself), so I needed to explicitly ask to make sure. I can say certainly now we agree on a post 1930 Revolution PoD being best.

The 1946 republic can be saved, and that is my favourite pod for Brazil. To understand more please check the thread "no military regime in Brazil".

Cool! Do you have a link?

EDIT ADD: Is it the one by @AdrianoChika ?

 

[Gukpard]

Yeah, I did figure as much; I’m far, far less familiar with Brazilian history than other members here (like yourself), so I needed to explicitly ask to make sure. I can say certainly now we agree on a post 1930 Revolution PoD being best.

Cool! Do you have a link?

EDIT ADD: Is it the one by @AdrianoChika ?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...-military-dictatorship-never-happened.466545/

Here. And yes he got a to that shows the coup being aborted. The dictatorship was not even closely as popular as people usually thinks today.

 

[Miguel Lanius]

The Old Republic was a mess. No really, you guys think Brazil nowdays is unstable, but really, everything now is civilized, stable and hunky-dory compared to that mess.

Lemme see if I can remember some of the "high-lights":

- Starts from a military coup by Republican Officers.

- Positivism infests the military and many civvies

- Starts as a military dictatorship, then becomes an oligarchic fake-democracy

- The second president was a military despot who had his own concentration camps in the Amazon and crushed multiple revolts against his rule.

- The economy was destroyed by a misguided attempt to boost industry through credit emission (Encilhamento). It also had no accountability whatsoever so it just turned into a Get-Rich-Quick scheme for conjobs. Btw, RIP the stable gold-backed currency of the Empire.

- One of the presidents was the nephew of the first one. He was also a feeble-minded idiot and pretty much left a shadowy puppet master run the country.

- A shadowy puppet master pretty much controlled national politics for years. He was also killed by a random guy and was so hated that everyone, that everyone cheered and gave zero fucks.

- Every state had its own army.

- The entire electoral system was a sham.

- Rio de Janeiro at the time was more plague-infested than a nurglite daemon-world.

- Two millenarian groups founded utopian communities and got promptly slaughtered by the authorities because it was thought they were trying to restore the monarchy. It was like Waco on FEV.

- There were multiple revolts, including by the navy, which almost bombarded the capital. The Navy revolt happened because sailors were tired of being ill-paid, racially-discriminated by their officers, whose method of discipline was "The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves." With lashes. The Navy was also monarchist.

- The entire poor popullation of Rio pretty much revolted against vaccines and higienist policies of the time. They even had a canon, but that was a lamppost on a cart.

- The country spent years being dominated by a para-masonic secret society of lawyers, originated by a fraternity from a single University in São Paulo, founded by a german immigrant know for stirring shit up. Multiple presidents came from this society.

- Land owners did pretty much what the fuck they wanted in the countryside. Including fighting their own little wars for land and power.

- Lower Officers in the Military tried to take over the country. Hell, some of these guys did take over in 1964.

- The Northeast became full of criminals who often took over entire towns.

- At some point, thousands of renegade soldiers roamed all over the country in an army of thousands, trying to depose the government.

Yeah, that time was... Weird.

 

[Gukpard]

Yeah, that time was... Weird.

41 years of chaos. The dictator Floriano killed more people from 1890 until 1894 than the 1964-85 dictatorship and the New State combined, and do not forget that the capital of the state of Santa Catarina (that he butchered a lot of people there) still carries his name.

Edit: I created a route on the Red Flood mod for the oligarchs to take over total control: