AHC: Stable Haiti

[sirjackalot]

With a 1900 POD how can Haiti develop into a stable nation state with an economic living standard at minimum comparable to it's neighbor Dominican Republic? While Haiti was never really been stable it's entire existence things have recently gotten particularly bad since 2021 when their president got assassinated.

So what is the most realistic way Haiti can be more prosperous with either a democratic or authoritarian political system?

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

Abolish the military and keep a US military base there permanently as protection.

It worked for Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, and Panama, all of which are Caribbean nations that have seen an increases in HDI, Democracy Index, and GDP per capita since demilitarization.

 

[Napoleone the Kiwi]

A successful communist revolution across all of Hispaniola could work similar to Cuba. Won’t necessarily be great, but certainly a lot better than the current issues plaguing Haiti.

In all fairness, a pre-1900 POD would probably do a lot more than more US Military or
corporate imperialism. France’s hissy-fit over the enslaved pursuing freedom cost the Haitians massively in material terms.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

Abolish the military and keep a US military base there permanently as protection.

It worked for Costa Rica, Dominica, Grenada, and Panama, all of which are Caribbean nations that have seen an increases in HDI, Democracy Index, and GDP per capita since demilitarization.

The United States already tried this from 1915-1933. Said US military intervention was a complete disaster for the Haitian people. Beyond the human cost, thousands killed in the various peasant revolts against foreign occupation, thousands more were killed by US forced labour projects. It fatally destabilised the country and helped lead to the black nationalist movement of Papa Doc Duvalier, which arose in response to the invasion.
You want a stable Haiti - one decent POD would be to avert the US occupation in 1915.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

An environmental factor. Whatever TTL Haiti does it needs to prevent deforestation. The loss of Haiti’s forests has lead to soil erosion, which has severely effected agriculture, and stopped the country being food secure. Dessalines was actually trying to crack down on illegal deforestation (how woke of him…) when he was assassinated in 1804.

 

[Typho]

The United States already tried this from 1915-1930. Said US military intervention was a complete disaster for the Haitian people. Beyond the human cost, thousands killed in the various peasant revolts against foreign occupation, thousands more were killed by US forced labour projects. It fatally destabilised the country and helped lead to the black nationalist movement of Papa Doc Duvalier, which arose in response to the invasion.
You want a stable Haiti - one decent POD would be to avert the US occupation in 1915.

If there was a US intervention in 1915, doesn't that mean the country was already unstable.
Why is it US military intervention endeared stability in Dominica or Costa Rica but didn't work in Haiti?

 

[Ana Luciana II]

If there was a US intervention in 1915, doesn't that mean the country was already unstable.
Why is it US military intervention endeared stability in Dominica or Costa Rica but didn't work in Haiti?

There was instability already, due to a divide between the urban mixed race elite and black rural cultivators, and there had been a series of coups in the run-up to intervention. However the occupation fatally derailed the country due to the chaos and mass death which resulted from the Caco Wars, coupled with US forces lifting the ban on foreigners owning property in Haiti which led to US companies gobbling up all the valuable resources, and US Marines basically running multiple areas that should have been delegated to the Haitian government meant both a lack of accountability and a lack of experience in government among the Haitian political elite.
As to Dominica and Costa Rica I can’t answer why the intervention engendered stability in those countries as I know next to nothing about them. But not every intervention is the same, actions that create positive results in one situation, can create disaster in another. I don’t think it helped that Haiti was a majority black nation and the US Marines occupying the country had a reputation for violent racism.

 

[youraveragekomodo]

An environmental factor. Whatever TTL Haiti does it needs to prevent deforestation. The loss of Haiti’s forests has lead to soil erosion, which has severely effected agriculture, and stopped the country being food secure. Dessalines was actually trying to crack down on illegal deforestation (how woke of him…) when he was assassinated in 1804.

The forest loss happens _exactly_ because Haiti was poor. If Haiti at the very least reached DR-level economy, then Haiti would stop cutting down forests and start replanting them.

I've also heard somewhere that Haiti and Dominican Republic were actually equally poor (and unstable) 'till the 60's. And that it was only then that DR eclipsed economically.
Is this actually true?

 

[Lalli]

Find way to avoid dictatorship of Duvalier family.

 

[Typho]

There was instability already, due to a divide between the urban mixed race elite and black rural cultivators, and there had been a series of coup sin the run-up to intervention. However the occupation fatally derailed the country due to the chaos and mass death which resulted from the Caco Wars, coupled with US forces lifting the ban on foreigners owning property in Haiti which led to US companies gobbling up all the valuable resources, and US Marines basically running multiple areas that should have been delegated to the Haitian government meant both a lack of accountability and a lack of experience in government among the Haitian political elite.
As to Dominica and Costa Rica I can’t answer why the intervention engendered stability in those countries as I know next to nothing about them. But not every intervention is the same, actions that create positive results in one situation, can create disaster in another. I don’t think it helped that Haiti was a majority black nation and the US Marines occupying the country had a reputation for violent racism.

What if the US occupation continued for longer, how do you think the situation would have developed?

 

[Ana Luciana II]

The forest loss happens _exactly_ because Haiti was poor. If Haiti at the very least reached DR-level economy, then Haiti would stop cutting down forests and start replanting them.

I've also heard somewhere that Haiti and Dominican Republic were actually equally poor (and unstable) 'till the 60's. And that it was only then that DR eclipsed economically.
Is this actually true?

Mhm, deforestation also leads to overcrowding in the cities, as poor soils leads to farmers abandoning their land and going to the cities for work. And since Haiti has a mountainous interior there’s no room for cities to expand.
As far as I understand it Haiti by comparison was poorer and had a lot more political conflict than the Dominican Republic. That being said there was a lot of potential wealth in Haiti. It was just very difficult to harness it due to very stark rural-urban tensions. I’ll use the rubber plantations as an example. Haiti has good land for growing rubber and in the 40s the government tried to set up a series of rubber plantations. Except this land was inhabited by subsistence farmers who militantly resisted attempts to expel them from the land their families had worked for hundreds of years for the sake of some plantations which would be owned by the urban elite, the profits of which they’d never see. So the process of building the plantations was brutal and slow, and due to an epidemic of corruption and mismanagement of these plantations, what profits there were never made it back to the Haitians themselves.

What if the US occupation continued for longer, how do you think the situation would have developed?

It’s an interesting thought. Most Haitians had turned against the occupation after the Les Cayes massacre, Presidents Hoover and Roosevelt were both against the continued occupation, and the puppet president installed by the Marines Louis Borno had alienated the population with his fascist policies. I could definitely see another Caco War breaking out if the US refuses to withdraw after 1933. I think the Marines could win such a war, but it would require them to engage in scorched Earth tactics, and I don’t know if the US really had the stomach for a prolonged colonial war that the political leadership in Washington didn’t want.

 

[Sol Zagato]

Haiti has deep problems that you can't blame on the US Marines.

My favorite POD here is Toussaint surviving and Dessalines not. 20th century PODs that work are just too painful.

 

[Infinite-Monkeys]

I think it needs a patron as early as possible who is more interested in its strategic role then as a means of economic exploitation, I wonder if perhaps you could see a soured relationship between the UK and the USA (a bit tricky in 1900 but not impossible flash points around the UK meddling in South America, or the US tries to push hard for free trade with Canada messing with the Imperial markets). Effectively get to the point where either side putting lots of ships in the Caribbean is going to be seen as an escalation, but both wanting to show what their position in it at which point some canny politicians from the Haitian end could play both sides get the desperately needed development cash, elite training etc (and also possibly pressure to either wipe out the debt to the French alternatively just have their benefactor cover it), then have the Haitians back the ultimate winner of this mini Cold War to avoid a sudden brutal regime change (most likely the US given the trends of the 1900s).

 

[durante]

France pays back the "reparations" they forced on Haiti for becoming Independent ...

 

[Polish Eagle]

Mhm, deforestation also leads to overcrowding in the cities, as poor soils leads to farmers abandoning their land and going to the cities for work. And since Haiti has a mountainous interior there’s no room for cities to expand.
As far as I understand it Haiti by comparison was poorer and had a lot more political conflict than the Dominican Republic. That being said there was a lot of potential wealth in Haiti. It was just very difficult to harness it due to very stark rural-urban tensions. I’ll use the rubber plantations as an example. Haiti has good land for growing rubber and in the 40s the government tried to set up a series of rubber plantations. Except this land was inhabited by subsistence farmers who militantly resisted attempts to expel them from the land their families had worked for hundreds of years for the sake of some plantations which would be owned by the urban elite, the profits of which they’d never see. So the process of building the plantations was brutal and slow, and due to an epidemic of corruption and mismanagement of these plantations, what profits there were never made it back to the Haitians themselves.

Is there a way to invest those smallholders in rubber planting? Maybe a cooperatively-owned plantation structure?

Or just buying the land at more attractive prices rather than confiscating? The rubber production joint venture was, after all, financed by the US--it's not like they lack the funds to just buy out Haitian subsistence farmers.

 

[Joseph890]

I actually watched a video which explains why Haiti and the Dominican republic diverged when it came to where the country is now in comparison to 1900. The biggest reason why the Dominican republic has managed to become a better place. Is that the dictator, who ran the country actually developed it which allowed for the Dominican republic to improve their standard of living. this is not to say that the dictator had altruistic reasons for his decision. He developed the country so he could become fantastically rich with him, roughly owning if I remembering correctly between 50 -60% of the entire country of economy. in direct contrast to this, the various leaders of Haiti did not develop the country. They just stole everything to fund the lavish lifestyles, which was also something that happened in the Dominican Republic.

 

[Ana Luciana II]

Is there a way to invest those smallholders in rubber planting? Maybe a cooperatively-owned plantation structure?

Or just buying the land at more attractive prices rather than confiscating? The rubber production joint venture was, after all, financed by the US--it's not like they lack the funds to just buy out Haitian subsistence farmers.

Interesting thought. I think cooperative-owned plantations are the best proposal though it would require a more accountable, less authoritarian government. In this TL perhaps Haiti could become a key part of the Allied war machine supplying rubber to America.

I think it needs a patron as early as possible who is more interested in its strategic role then as a means of economic exploitation, I wonder if perhaps you could see a soured relationship between the UK and the USA (a bit tricky in 1900 but not impossible flash points around the UK meddling in South America, or the US tries to push hard for free trade with Canada messing with the Imperial markets). Effectively get to the point where either side putting lots of ships in the Caribbean is going to be seen as an escalation, but both wanting to show what their position in it at which point some canny politicians from the Haitian end could play both sides get the desperately needed development cash, elite training etc (and also possibly pressure to either wipe out the debt to the French alternatively just have their benefactor cover it), then have the patience back to have the ultimate winner is of this mini Cold War to avoid a sudden brutal regime change (most likely the US given the trends of the 1900s).

They could also possibly spin an officer training school out of this agreement to modernise and de-politicise the army. In this way they could remove the constant risk of rural revolution and military coups which plagued Haiti throughout the 19th and 20th centuries.

 

[Jürgen]

France pays back the "reparations" they forced on Haiti for becoming Independent ...

I don’t think France giving money to Swiss banks would really help Haiti.

 

[Typho]

France pays back the "reparations" they forced on Haiti for becoming Independent ...

That would require avoiding the atrocities committed during the independence war. Which would result in better long term relations post-independence.

I actually watched a video which explains why Haiti and the Dominican republic diverged when it came to where the country is now in comparison to 1900. The biggest reason why the Dominican republic has managed to become a better place. Is that the dictator, who ran the country actually developed it which allowed for the Dominican republic to improve their standard of living. this is not to say that the dictator had altruistic reasons for his decision. He developed the country so he could become fantastically rich with him, roughly owning if I remembering correctly between 50 -60% of the entire country of economy. in direct contrast to this, the various leaders of Haiti did not develop the country. They just stole everything to fund the lavish lifestyles, which was also something that happened in the Dominican Republic.

Yeah, that is an institutional problems in some elites, they don't think ahead at all, just in the moment.

 

[durante]

That would require avoiding the atrocities committed during the independence war. Which would result in better relations post-independence.

Yeah, that is an institutional problems in some elites, they don't think ahead at all, just in the moment.

Excuse me? Not once were atrocities mentioned. France sought reparations for the "property" in enslaved persons they lost.

Do you think the "atrocities" committed in freeing oneself from an illegal status are equivalent to atrocities committed in stealing people and shipping them across an ocean to force them and their descendants to work for free in abject conditions for hundreds of years?

Like those kind of atrocities?