AHC: Make West Germany/Germany a part of France's sphere of influence

[Declan]

Backstory:
France's post war vision for Germany was to smash a unified German state into many smaller states and form a French sphere of influence in those German states. Those countries would be looking towards France for their economies, for culture, and for military protection. This all satisfied the French goal to make it as difficult as possible for Germans to threaten France again.

Against the backdrop of the Cold War and fading colonial power, France's plans were simply thrown away.
However France still tried to salvage what it could of its plans by trying to economically tie West Germany to itself, via economic integration. But France could not compete with the fact that West Germany was solidly in the US's sphere of influence. The idea finally died with the Élysée treaty of 1963, when German lawmakers inserted a clause referring to West Germany's good relationship with the US; the treaty was between Germany and France. This was during France's period of distancing itself from the US. De Gaulle had aimed have solid partner going against the US with him. But the treaty ended up solidifying the status of the two countries as co-equals(rather than one sub-ordinate to the other) and US influence in Germany.

So the challenge is: have West Germany be under France's influence, instead of the US's. France's influence should carry over into a reunited Germany as well. By "influence" I mean that: 1. the German government follows the French government's lead on many issues(especially international ones), 2. the German economy has a greater dependency on the French one, 3. France must be seen as main military backer/protector of Germany(in the same way the US is to Germany OTL).

Conditions:
-from the above one condition is that West(and East) Germany should still form and they should form around the same time as the OTL
-French influence over West Germany should start shortly after West Germany was formed, or from its inception
-the two Germanies must reunite, around the same time as the OTL as well
-the Saarland must also be returned to Germany
-the French colonial empire still has to fall. ASB superpower France is the easiest solution so it is preemptively ruled out.

 

[Orcbuster]

-the French colonial empire still has to fall. ASB superpower France is the easiest solution so it is preemptively ruled out.

Then you sorta ruined it there and then.

Basically your requirements are ASB unless france is a global superpower on par with the US and the USSR.

 

[Alexniko]

Then you sorta ruined it there and then.

Basically your requirements are ASB unless france is a global superpower on par with the US and the USSR.

Yeah, basically that. You'd need a way stronger France and a way weaker West Germany to make it happen. Not to speak of the obvious tensions with the US this would cause.

I find this idea very interesting, but I'm afraid that it's impossible to archieve with these requirements.

 

[ReachODST]

West Germany gets more French immigration than Turkish and others, and they become influential within society and politics. With France been seeing as a guarantor of post-war stability.

 

[brokenrobot00]

West Germany would have to be much less centralized and maybe abandons Federalism in favor of some variation on a Confederation where regional governments have more sway than the National Government. If the individual regions or states have the ability to dictate International Relations and Trade Policy on their own then France could try and influence State Level Governments with favorable terms during negotiations but certain trade offs that allow Paris to flex its muscles. Ultimately France would want to pull these States into a trade block where they are the defacto leaders of this group.

 

[Alexniko]

West Germany would have to be much less centralized and maybe abandons Federalism in favor of some variation on a Confederation where regional governments have more sway than the National Government. If the individual regions or states have the ability to dictate International Relations and Trade Policy on their own then France could try and influence State Level Governments with favorable terms during negotiations but certain trade offs that allow Paris to flex its muscles. Ultimately France would want to pull these States into a trade block where they are the defacto leaders of this group.

This would make for a great TL.

France integrates the Saarland and manages to create a permanent international commision in control of the Ruhr with itself in a prominent position. West Germany is turned into a Confederation of loosely affiliated states, which makes it easy for France to influence members like Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz. The butterflies are enormous, and even if the socialist camp still breaks apart it's unlikely that anything resembling the OTL annexation of the DDR could happen in this scenario.

French ambitions in Europe would cause tensions with the United States and probably the United Kingdom aswell. If France still pursues a rather autonomous foreign and military (leaving of NATO's integrated command structure, independent nuclear doctrine) policy, the correlation of forces in Europe could be drastically altered. Heck, the non-existence of the BRD alone would drastically alter the military and political balance of power.

If France manages to archieve this, and is possibly even able to integrate Algeria (a long shot, but still), the country could be a lot greater a power in the international arena compared to OTL.

Edit: Now, mind you, all of West Germany coming under French influence is basically impossible. West Germany, by the 1960s at the latest, was a great power itself, economically and militarily aswell. By breaking it up into smaller pieces you could get rid of this issue, but then the US and Britain will want their share aswell.

 

[Declan]

Then you sorta ruined it there and then.

Basically your requirements are ASB unless france is a global superpower on par with the US and the USSR.

When I post AHC's, I try to come with at least one ATL to meet the challenge to see if it could be done.

Same here.
I know AHC's are supposed to be for other people to brainstorm, but if you want I could post my own ATL for this challenge.

 

[lukedalton]

It can be done in a roundbout way with the creation of the EDC (European Defense Community) with France as the principal member but you also need an USA that decide to be hand off regarding containing/facing communism at least in Europe aka still supporting economically europe and putting the continent under her nuclear umbrella

 

[rfmcdonald]

You might be able to get something like this if you have a US that disengages from Europe, leaving France as the main military of western Europe and a contender for leadership in a way that West Germany was clearly not for political reasons.

Outside of that, and even in that scenario, IMHO France is relatively speaking not large and not wealthy enough to dominate West Germany. If we exclude possibilities like, say, France keeping its empire in some form, giving it the sort of size and potential lacking in its European neighbours, I can only imagine this happening if something happens to wreck Germany.

 

[Father Maryland]

I'm wondering if it's at all possible for the nominally semi independent post war Saarland French protectorate to remain seperate from Germany and remain effectively a extension of France.

One of the few ways I can think of it working would be if say Western Germany ended up somehow falling to communism via some method while the Saar was still nominally seperate and say NATO responds by trying to seize say the Rhineland and other such border areas in order to provide more of a buffer between the Soviets and NATO.

 

[Declan]

You might be able to get something like this if you have a US that disengages from Europe, leaving France as the main military of western Europe and a contender for leadership in a way that West Germany was clearly not for political reasons.

Outside of that, and even in that scenario, IMHO France is relatively speaking not large and not wealthy enough to dominate West Germany. If we exclude possibilities like, say, France keeping its empire in some form, giving it the sort of size and potential lacking in its European neighbours, I can only imagine this happening if something happens to wreck Germany.

Well my idea, the one I hinted I made, was essentially the economic side of the Morgenthau plan gets implemented, with most of the wealth going under Paris' control.
France steps up in the early 50s to help West Germany while the US maintains the hardline; effectively ceding almost all soft power to the French.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

This is more FH but wait a generation IRL.

 

[Cryptic]

So the challenge is: have West Germany be under France's influence, instead of the US's. France's influence should carry over into a reunited Germany as well. By "influence" I mean that: 1. the German government follows the French government's lead on many issues(especially international ones), 2. the German economy has a greater dependency on the French one, 3. France must be seen as main military backer/protector of Germany(in the same way the US is to Germany OTL).

Maybe France, after having fought three wars with Germany in quick succession, insists in 1945 on having oversight of any future German military.

All senior German commanders must be approved by the French government. Approvable means not only "non Nazi", but also.... francophile. France also has a significant say in what weapons are "too offensive" for German possession.

Likewise, the French insist on oversight of "dual use" industries in Germany such as automotive and truck manufacturing. If the post war Germans want that oversight dialed down, they are going to want to use French components and engage in cooperative projects with equivalent French companies.

The French find US weapons to be "offensive" (get it, get it)- for a variety of reasons. As a result, the re arming German military is pretty much mandated to go French for major purchases. The near mandated purchase of French weapons increases economic ties and also leads to the Germans adopting the French vision of a lighter, more mobile cold war force.

Wanting to increase ties even further, the French keep the German language alive in Alsace Lorraine. The French also have deep- but quiet resentment of English becoming the global language. This means that German is presented as the alternative over English as the secondary language of choice in French schools.

 

[raharris1973]

So the challenge is: have West Germany be under France's influence, instead of the US's. France's influence should carry over into a reunited Germany as well. By "influence" I mean that: 1. the German government follows the French government's lead on many issues(especially international ones), 2. the German economy has a greater dependency on the French one, 3. France must be seen as main military backer/protector of Germany(in the same way the US is to Germany OTL).

The three elements of this challenge are not that hard. In part, that is because, especially for the first two, OTL partway or halfway meets those conditions, Germany has a good bit of diplomatic deference to Paris, and it is enormously trade interdependent with France, with a great amount of economic policy coordination, inluding a currency union. The thing it never granted France was clear supremacy, or exclusiveness or veto-power over its American relations.

Conditions:
-from the above one condition is that West(and East) Germany should still form and they should form around the same time as the OTL
-French influence over West Germany should start shortly after West Germany was formed, or from its inception
-the two Germanies must reunite, around the same time as the OTL as well
-the Saarland must also be returned to Germany
-the French colonial empire still has to fall. ASB superpower France is the easiest solution so it is preemptively ruled out.

The conditions listed above all make the challenge more difficult. @Orcbuster is right that far.

But not impossible.

I can think of a few ways to make it happen, mostly along the lines of what @rfmcodonald has suggested. And I think the harder condition to abide by is the French influence starting at the inception or right after, than France not being an ASB superpower with a non-fallen colonial empire.

My ideas:

1) The US uses nuclear weapons in the Korean War against China and North Korea within a several weeks of the Chinese inflicting major setbacks on US/UN/ROK forces in Korea in 1950/1951 winter. As weeks and ultimately months of atomic and conventional warfare proceed in Korea and China, the US destroys the centers of many North Korean and Chinese cities, troop concentrations and depots, but the tactical and operational results are underwhelming and far less than expected, and no vital leadership targets are struck as Kim and Mao and Peng Dehuai remain relocated or hidden targets. The Soviet Union and its allies, neutral countries and peace groups condemn US atomic warfare, especially against civilian targets. In retaliation, the Soviets further build up their forces in the Far East and all borders, and the Chinese announce the expansion of their Air Force (many of whom are 'volunteer' Asian-looking Soviet personnel flying Soviet personnel with Soviet markings. The 'Chinese' loosen their aerial rules of engagement to maximize damage to Pusan harbor and any other ports still in US/ROK hands, while suffering brutal attrition doing it.

West European publics and politicians are gripped by fear of war spreading and appalled by the destruction of East Asian cities.

The Korean War ends without the Soviet Union directly and openly engaging its forces in Asia or Europe, and without the US directly attacking the Soviets on their territory.

It ends either with a ceasefire around the 38ths parallel, or with the Communists having won on the mainland and the US/UN/ROK holding Cheju-Do/Quelpart offshore and being satisfied w/having atomically punished the Communist Koreans and Chinese and unwilling to a do another D-Day.

This all leaves a bitter taste in the mouth of US allies about US judgment and recklessness, and leaves Americans angry about Allied non-support, leading to weakened public support for NATO.

NATO and the US presence in Europe doesn't die right away, because West Germany is under some occupation restrictions through 1955. The British wait until developing their own Bomb and delivery system before parliament votes to refuse to base American atomic platforms. France tries to fast-track its nuclear platform.

But basically, by 1955, the West European and British leaders have decided on self-reliance and mutual reliance rather than reliance on the crazy Americans. For Adenauer, this means reliance on the French above all, especially once they have their nukes, probably ahead of OTL (probably enabled because of increased emphasis and an earlier quitting of Indochina because of the Korea disaster) and DeGaulle's takeover.

2. In a less acrimonious manner, looking at the obvious success of Europe in recovering from WWII by 1959 and the growth rates on the continent, and DeGaulle's signalling he's a decisive leader *and* getting out of the Algeria mess, the 2nd Eisenhower Administration calculates that the initial reasons for providing a US conventional stopgap to to keep the burden of defense spending off the Europeans will be evaporated by 1960-62. The growing US merchandize and balance of payments deficit with Western European countries is an additional argument for this.

Accordingly, the Eisenhower Administration and its Defense Department announce an 8 year plan to phase-out permanent basing of US conventional forces (troops, tactical airpower, armor) from Europe (Britain, West Germany, Italy, France, Belgium, etc.) while retaining the US nuclear deterrent shield and base-access agreements for emergency surges, on the understanding that European countries by the early and middle 60s will have the wealth to fund their own adequate conventional deterrent and defense forces. The reasoning for Ike is that subsidizing European defense beyond strategic nuclear, air and seapower is beyond the scope of what *only* the US can afford to provide, and just amounts to a subsidy of British and West European welfare states.

3. Wildcard - this one starts earlier, as asked, but mucks with the geography more -
To almost everyone's surprise, except for this forum's illustrious @Sam R.) the British Empire right after WWII has a worker's revolution led by councils of workers and soldiers and workers, in Britain and throughout the empire from Derry to Delhi to Cairo to Nairobi to Singapore to Sydney, that sets up a Socialist Union of Council States founded on the premise of repudiating the war debt to the United States and holding the Empire together in a new racially equal form led by a vanguard party representing the workers and soldiers of all parts of the empire.

The new Socialist British Empire has just torqued off the capitalists of the United States and is a perfect complementary trading partner for the USSR (cheap consumer goods and high tech for raw materials and buk commodities) and will see Moscow as the vital security partner in holding Germany down.

Assuming France does not soon folllow into Communism, France is now the main US ally in Europe, and the only reliable route to the Atlantic from the US zone. Franco-American policy over Germany will have to be tightly coordinated, West Germany, or should we say, 'South Germany' will only be more Catholic and a creature of the CDU/CSU, and oriented toward Latin Europe. France will have incontestable leverage over western-capitalist Germany.

As for the Socialist Soviet and British Zones, 'East Germany' or 'North Germany', they may be a united DDR under British and Soviet supervision gradually and carefully manuevering for more autonomy and development over time. Alternatively, London and Moscow and London may decide they "love" Germany so much, they will keep two of them around, say the Democratic Republic of Hanover-Westphalia in the west and the Democratic Republic of Brandenburg-Saxony in the east?