We know the chances of a sealion is seen, by pretty much everyone, as zilch, both in the Napoleonic Era and in WW2 (though I see the WW2 one as Hitler trying to scare the British into suing for peace than not actually attempting an Operation Sealion). However, I recently read in a thread that France's navy was at least on par with the Royal Navy up until the Revolution due to the Navy being filled with actual royalists or suspected Royalists, seeing many experienced officers in the navy be purged and executed for "betraying the revolution". So the challenge here is, without causing too many butterflies that it prevents the rise of Napoleon, keep the French navy strong, experienced, and capable enough to conduct an Operation Sealion under the Little Corporal in 1805. From there, you can discuss how a Napoleonic Sealion would go (and maybe how Egypt and Trafalgar could be different due to a better French Navy than OTL).
 
I feel that your comment that the French navy was on par with the Royal Navy until the revolution to be a slight exaggeration. That said they would have been a lot more competitive. Especially if the Spanish end up on the same side as the French.

You need to improve French results throughout the revolutionary wars to get France able to Sealion.

You need to stop the destruction of half the Mediteranean fleet in the siege of Toulon (1793). You need to reduce losses in the Irish expeditions and so on and so forth.

Egypt and Trafalgar are at the end of 13 years of unfavourable attrition of the French navy at the hands of the British. Attrition not just of ships but of skills as many sailors skills declined while sitting at port. Retiring sailors were replaced by new recruits who couldn't match their predecessors due to a lack of experience.
 
In truth, you don't need a French Navy on par with the Royal Navy to cross in this era. This was before radios, before radar, and before engines. All you truly need is to clear part of the channel of the defensive force for a day and you could get a huge army across and at that point the war is over. This was actually the plan at one point, but the British never truly took the bait. One time they actually had orders to chase a huge French Fleet which would have given Napoleon his opening but the Royal Navy lucked into good weather and a scout ship realized the fleet they were chasing was much smaller than they thought so the fleet turned around and that was it.

Give them a few different orders or scouting situations and Napoleon could have landed his army on the shores of England with no issues and he'd have gotten to London with at most one major battle.
 
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