AHC: DDR surpasses BRD economically

Then you should read the Hoover reports to Truman of the "the President's Economic Mission to Germany and Austria".
IIRC they estimated that 25% to 33% of all Germans would have to emigrate or starve if the Morgenthau plan would be implemented. Because with only the allowed light industries and agriculture Germany wouldn´t be able to export enough to pay for needed machinery, oil and fertilizer to feed its population.
And second they estimated that without the German industry the recovery of the European economies would take much longer. Europe quite simply was dependent on German industrial goods like tool machinery, heavy machinery, electrical equipment and chemical and optical goods. IIRC they thought that recreating the German tool industry in another European country would take 20-30 years and would mostly have to be paid for by the USA. Assuming of course that the effort was successful.

Personally I´d expect a quite large Communist party in West Germany in the 1950s in your scenario. And a lot more enthusiasm about the Stalin notes in 1952.
I was quite aware of most of that, save the tool industry bit. That said the US even in OTL started to implement it, now assume like my hypothetical the US population is out to make Germany pay, and implementing it to a greater degree would be possible. It would certainly fulfill the OP
 
Then you should read the Hoover reports to Truman of the "the President's Economic Mission to Germany and Austria".
IIRC they estimated that 25% to 33% of all Germans would have to emigrate or starve if the Morgenthau plan would be implemented. Because with only the allowed light industries and agriculture Germany wouldn´t be able to export enough to pay for needed machinery, oil and fertilizer to feed its population.
And second they estimated that without the German industry the recovery of the European economies would take much longer. Europe quite simply was dependent on German industrial goods like tool machinery, heavy machinery, electrical equipment and chemical and optical goods. IIRC they thought that recreating the German tool industry in another European country would take 20-30 years and would mostly have to be paid for by the USA. Assuming of course that the effort was successful.

Personally I´d expect a quite large Communist party in West Germany in the 1950s in your scenario. And a lot more enthusiasm about the Stalin notes in 1952.

The major problem with East Germany surviving as a competitive state is that it is not clear to me that the constituency existed. Austria had a long-standing history of independence and power, but East Germany started off as the conglomeration of territories that fell after 1945 under Soviet domination. Even if you had (say) a relatively successful market socialism in East Germany, it is not clear to me that this system would be able to last next to an almost certainly more dynamic social market economy in West Germany.

I think it’s more about access to relative cheap and well educated labor.

True enough, and there was that sort of potential. It was limited, IMHO, by the fact that East Germany was on the other side of the Cold War. Yugoslavia as a neutral was a relatively secure trading partner, but what western European would want to extend their supply chains into the vulnerable and militarily opposed East?
 
The reason I suggested going with Berlin being made into a independent city serving as a Hong Kong am Spree, would be that it would serve first as a capitalist industrial hub importing raw material from DDR and later as a financial hub outsourcing industries to DDR. This was heavy inspired of how China have become a major economy. Berlin would fundamental serve as a way for West German, Benelux and Nordic companies to build outsourced factories in East Germany. The access to foreign currency which DDR would get, would be enough to make USSR from banning it.
How is Berlin going to emulate Hong Kong if it's surrounded by East Germany?

For a more plausible east european Hong Kong, how about a more enterprising East German leader during the Glasnost period opens up Rostock as a Supercharged Free Port?
 
True enough, and there was that sort of potential. It was limited, IMHO, by the fact that East Germany was on the other side of the Cold War. Yugoslavia as a neutral was a relatively secure trading partner, but what western European would want to extend their supply chains into the vulnerable and militarily opposed East?

I don’t think they would do work connected to military interests, but western companies producing washing machines, cars, medicines, consumer electronics etc that wouldn’t be a problem. You could also see East German cartoon studios doing the grunt work for western companies. Of course the Free City of Berlin is not part of NATO or EEC (but likely part of EFTA), so they can transfer critical infrastructure to East Germany.

We could see a similar model as in China with a co-ownership between the East German state and the Western companies, this would result in a transfer of knowledge, in fact East German “companies” did seem to have produced some innovations, but the main problem for them was that the state forced them to focus on good enough. If this innovation happened in connection with outsourced factories, the state would stay out of it, and these innivation would spread to East German consumer goods. Improvements in car production could mean both better cars in East Germany but also a much shorter waiting list to get a car.

As the Free City of Berlin grow (I expect it to reach 5 million people by the 80ties), we will likely also see increased tourism to East Germany, likely with Baltic resorts specializing in tourists from Berlin, this would again result in transfer of money to East Germany, but also force East Germany to raise the standards in their resorts.
 
How is Berlin going to emulate Hong Kong if it's surrounded by East Germany?

For a more plausible east european Hong Kong, how about a more enterprising East German leader during the Glasnost period opens up Rostock as a Supercharged Free Port?

It wouldn’t work, Berlin would work, because it’s not run by East Germany.
 

ferdi254

Banned
Agree with the people who say Berlin would not work. And one problem is: With increased flow of goods it will be much harder to close the border and the GDR in the 60s went rather anal about this.
 
Let's say that all thing are the same for BRD.

Have DDR experience less emigration, more population growth (it is possible) aswell as keep a higher education than BRD. Bonus if DDR specialise in some sector where BRD is relativly weak. Prior to reunification keep a more competitive economy. During the reunification process maintain more of the competitive companies, aswell as rationalise them.
 
Would tricks or outright lies in the paperwork meet criteria, especially if the DDR had an equivalent of Baghdad Bob to constantly reinforce the party line?
 
What if The DDR had the states of Schleswig-Holstein, Bremen and maybe parts of Lower Saxony? Would this help?
 
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