RamscoopRaider
Donor
I was quite aware of most of that, save the tool industry bit. That said the US even in OTL started to implement it, now assume like my hypothetical the US population is out to make Germany pay, and implementing it to a greater degree would be possible. It would certainly fulfill the OPThen you should read the Hoover reports to Truman of the "the President's Economic Mission to Germany and Austria".
IIRC they estimated that 25% to 33% of all Germans would have to emigrate or starve if the Morgenthau plan would be implemented. Because with only the allowed light industries and agriculture Germany wouldn´t be able to export enough to pay for needed machinery, oil and fertilizer to feed its population.
And second they estimated that without the German industry the recovery of the European economies would take much longer. Europe quite simply was dependent on German industrial goods like tool machinery, heavy machinery, electrical equipment and chemical and optical goods. IIRC they thought that recreating the German tool industry in another European country would take 20-30 years and would mostly have to be paid for by the USA. Assuming of course that the effort was successful.
Personally I´d expect a quite large Communist party in West Germany in the 1950s in your scenario. And a lot more enthusiasm about the Stalin notes in 1952.