AHC: Christian Constantinople a megacity by 2020

How would a Constantinople that stays Christian (and prefererably Greek/Roman, but thats just icing on the top) have, at the very least, the same population modern Istanbul has or possibly greater?

One of the obvious answers to this of course is a survivng Eastern Roman Empire that retains Anatolia, the Balkans, and possibly Egypt to provide a population base for urbanization in this world's industrial revolution.

Alternatively, some of the 19th and 20th century independence wars in the Balkans could see Greece retake the city, fulfill the Megali Idea, but most of the population growth needed for Istanbul-levels might need to come from external migration.
 
A Greek conquest in the 19th/20th century I don't think will work, honestly the population expulsions would gut the populations and I think it would decline the city a fair bit for a while. I suspect internal and external immigration won't make up the numbers either.
 
WWI, Entente successfully captures the Dardenelles. Greeks join the Entente (either before or after) and get it, presumably along with Cyprus. Greek Christians flock there out of a sense of pride, similar to OTL Athens, except for Constantinople being bigger.
 
Maybe a scenario where Tsarist Russia gets it, makes it their capital, and lots of Russians flock South?
Maybe this Tsarist Russia unites all the Orthodox realms - Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, etc... into one empire which bases its legitimacy as Rome 2.1. Tsargrad/Constantinople becomes the dominant city of an empire of over 200 million people.
 
Keeping the ERE around and at the very least having them keep Basil II's borders (so OTL Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and parts of Albania and Armenia) is probably your best bet. The easiest way to do that IMO is reverse the outcome at Manzikert but that's far from the only way to keep the Byzantines around to the modern day.

A ERE comprised of the countries listed above is at the very least a middle power and possibly a great power depending on how the rest of the planet shakes up. As a result no reason why Constantinople won't be as populous as modern Istanbul.
 
Modern Istanbul urbanized throughout the 20th century. A greater population base than Anatolia is not necessary.

That said, Istanbul only grew as much because of the immense growth of the Turkish construction sector and because the city had been heavily depopulated after the end of the Ottoman Empire and the transferal of the capital to Ankara. A Christian Constantinople under the ERE would likely never depopulate to that level and, therefore, the ERE construction sector may not be going as strong in Constantinople as it did in Istanbul. There might be better alternatives to Constantinople, which aren't as expensive, but which still attract migration flows from the rural exodus. Constantinople will of course grow much beyond the 19th century city, but it might not grow as much if it didn't lose its population and status in the early 20th century, becoming the engine of Turkish economic growth later down the line precisely because of the former depopulation (as in, there was a lot of space to grow back, and then growth grew exponential).

It doesn't work as a city in Modern Greece because Greece doesn't have the economy or the population to sponsor a megacity like OTL Istanbul. Russia also doesn't work because Constantinople would be in the Russian periphery, rather than at the heart of its economic growth like it was for Turkey.
 
It doesn't work as a city in Modern Greece because Greece doesn't have the economy or the population to sponsor a megacity like OTL Istanbul. Russia also doesn't work because Constantinople would be in the Russian periphery, rather than at the heart of its economic growth like it was for Turkey.
Here's another idea then: maybe our Russian Orthodox Empire is a personal union of all the Orthodox nations. The Emperor sits in Constantinople to legitimize himself as the heir to the Byzantines. Constantinople becomes the cosmopolitan capital of the entire Balkans and Anatolia. Moscow (or maybe Kiev, if the Emperor wants to legitimize himself as the heir of Vladimir) becomes the largest city of the Russian part of the empire, easily with 10+ million, but with a more monocultural atmosphere.

Hence we have a Russian tsar sitting in Constantinople, the dominant city of the Eastern Orthodox world, with Moscow (or Kiev) being equal in size but more provincial in character. The court in Constantinople is dominated by Russians, which is justified by the Russians being the ones who liberated the Second Rome from the Turkish yoke.
 
It really depends on the POD. With a post-1600 POD you could make Russia more successful or maybe for some reason it puts priority on its southern front rather than fighting Sweden.
 
Keeping the ERE around and at the very least having them keep Basil II's borders (so OTL Greece, Turkey, Cyprus, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and parts of Albania and Armenia) is probably your best bet. The easiest way to do that IMO is reverse the outcome at Manzikert but that's far from the only way to keep the Byzantines around to the modern day.

A ERE comprised of the countries listed above is at the very least a middle power and possibly a great power depending on how the rest of the planet shakes up. As a result no reason why Constantinople won't be as populous as modern Istanbul.

No Myriokephalon (or a different, more successful version of it) could also work. The empire seemed to be on its way to regaining Anatolia when that killed its momentum. But the biggest factor of all working against the empire was the chaotic succession that encouraged pretenders to revolt regularly. The empire kept tearing itself apart, to the profit of outsiders.

Constantinople will surely be the largest city in the empire. If the empire is large enough, it can grow huge. Keep in mind that the OTL Athens area has about 35 % of Greece's population, and that is nearly all due to growth in the last two centuries. If Constantinople is always the capital, the OTL Athens growth will most likely go there instead.
 
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Osman Aga

Banned
How would a Constantinople that stays Christian (and prefererably Greek/Roman, but thats just icing on the top) have, at the very least, the same population modern Istanbul has or possibly greater?

One of the obvious answers to this of course is a survivng Eastern Roman Empire that retains Anatolia, the Balkans, and possibly Egypt to provide a population base for urbanization in this world's industrial revolution.

Alternatively, some of the 19th and 20th century independence wars in the Balkans could see Greece retake the city, fulfill the Megali Idea, but most of the population growth needed for Istanbul-levels might need to come from external migration.

Ottoman analogue for the East Roman Empire. Catholic conquest of the Balkans results in Eastern Orthodox refugees to Constantinople. Later on, other Christians migrate for work to Constantinople.

Greece cannot take Constantinople on its own. In no independence struggle will Greece take it. And if it does it hardly will become a Christian mega city as it does not have the population to reach that size. Nowadays Istanbul is barely 20% original citizens, like 3 million or something. Most are immigrants in the last 100 years.
 
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Osman Aga

Banned
Maybe this Tsarist Russia unites all the Orthodox realms - Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia, etc... into one empire which bases its legitimacy as Rome 2.1. Tsargrad/Constantinople becomes the dominant city of an empire of over 200 million people.

Not trying to be dick. In theory yes, this could work. In practice, neither the Bulgarians nor Romanians nor Serbs will accept an iron Russian Rule just because they are Eastern Orthodox. They prefer their own rule. Bulgaria had a fall out with Russia in the 1880s barely a decade after Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire. Imagine what would happen if Russia tried to annex it. This is still without considering what other Great powers will do with such an expansionist Russia.
 
Not trying to be dick. In theory yes, this could work. In practice, neither the Bulgarians nor Romanians nor Serbs will accept an iron Russian Rule just because they are Eastern Orthodox. They prefer their own rule. Bulgaria had a fall out with Russia in the 1880s barely a decade after Russia defeated the Ottoman Empire. Imagine what would happen if Russia tried to annex it. This is still without considering what other Great powers will do with such an expansionist Russia.

Yeah, there's no way the rest of Europe (especially the British) won't do whatever it takes to prevent this Super Russia from forming.
 
I wrote an answer touching upon this idea for Quora last year, concentrating on a POD in the 1920s.


I concluded that, although this Greek Constantinople might well be as prosperous as OTL, there is simply no way it can become anything like as large as today's megacity. More people live in Istanbul's metropolitan now than in Greece and Cyprus combined, and between the likely expulsion of the city's Muslim populations and the political borders that would be put up afterwards I am hard-pressed to imagined me where or how it could get anything like OTL's numbers of immigrants. I would further guess that Athens might well stay ahead of this Constantinople, especially if Athens keeps its status as capital.

I am not at all sure how you could have a Christian megacity Constantinople with a POD within the past couple of centuries. Perhaps if this city becomes the capital of a Christian successor-statr to the Ottomans, encompassing the Balkans and the nearest and most demographically Christian provinces of Anatolia? But then, how does such a state form?
 
I think that paradoxically, you need the Ottoman Empire to be a part of early industrialization to get the Greeks demographically capable of making Constantinople a megacity.

Rough sketch here, but let's imagine a scenario where the Dutch, English, or Spanish Netherlander merchants set up ambitious trade routes to Constantinople after a political detente or formal alliance is reached between the Sublime Porte and England/The Netherlands/Spain(somehow) in the early 18th century. With Greeks acting as middlemen, the Ottoman economy is exposed to North Sea trade goods earlier versus OTL where Ottoman trade was mostly domestic bar a few key cash exports and thus, Greeks get greater exposure to the beginnings of both early industry and the printing press. While most trade is managed by North Sea traders, a handful of Greeks establish a Greek quarter in London/Amsterdam/Brussels/chosen ally's major trade hub that serves as a node through which the Ottoman Empire's Greeks and the whole of the old Eastern Roman Empire are exposed to modernity, one of the biggest being the widespread literacy compared to their native Greece.

Knowledge, as well as the smell of opportunity, diffuses back into the Aegean via these traders, and prominent Greeks in the Ottoman administration as well as sympathetic recent converts of high standing convince the Sultan to permit the Greeks to introduce the printing press to Salonika so long as they print only in Greek. While known to the people of the region, the printing press never truly took off during its initial introduction, arguably in part due to the sorry state of the Hellenic peoples during the late 15th century as well as the heavy discouragement by Ottoman authorities.

Simultaneously, early attempts at primitive factories begin in Salonika and Constantinople by ambitious Greek merchants seeking to capitalize on abundant Ottoman produce such as cotton from Egypt and wool from Anatolia. While the latter aren't particularly successful at first, the printing press is a major hit with the Hellenosphere and soon, Greek books are circulating throughout the Eastern Mediterranean and a push for literacy occurs in the Greek Orthodox Church. The texts are largely religious or deal with Greek mythology at first, but this rallies both the church and those disenfranchised by the Ottomans to read their own history with their own eyes. Languages such as Arabic and Turkish are prohibited at this time from printing by Muslim authorities, and Slavic languages and Romanian largely removed from the movement due to their more isolated geography and less standardized dialects. This literary boom in the Eastern Mediterranean carried on the backs of Greek traders leads to a revitalization of Greek communities along the Aegean and Black Sea coasts, particularly historic ones such as the Alexandrian Greeks.

Time passes and amidst Ottoman political instability, Greek-owned factories have slowly started to spread following in the footsteps of the English along Greek-heavy cities in the Attic peninsula and parts of Anatolia, as well as Alexandria. And akin to early industrialization IOTL, this leads to this economic Hellenosphere mirroring the same trends as in Western Europe; urbanization, population booms, and political instability. Long story short, due to the Greek economic domination of most Ottoman cities along the coasts leads to the gradual Hellenification of Christian immigrants to urban centers as they're by far the early leaders in education as literacy becomes more and more important to sustain this economic model. Identifying as a Bulgarian while speaking primarily Greek becomes commonplace. The Ottomans are suffering from most of their OTL political instability but the wealth of the Greek community has them serving as a crutch; Greeks are largely left alone so as to maintain their most reliable source of taxes. Meanwhile, the demographic boom really only hits the Greek community due to the nature of Ottoman industrialization, and only later reaches other parts of the OE during the later stages of industrialization(1870s onwards).

End result, you have a much larger Greek population much less inclined to emigrate away from Greece due to the greater prosperity of the region, as well as also making up a greater demographic share in most OTL territories where Greeks made up majorities or significant minorities. No matter the route you choose, you have the demographics that even in a population exchange scenario, there are plenty more Greeks with which to play around with for this scenario. If you want the best-case, IMO you get a successful Greek Plan built atop of this scenario that manages to get backing from a significant naval power(Britain, France, Spain) and thanks to the greater bourgeoise class in Greece, has both financial and popular support. Thanks to this the Ottomans suffer crushing defeats at sea and are effectively split in two with the Greeks getting the full lands outlined in the Greek Plan as well as encouraging a Mamluke revolt in Egypt, leaving a rump Ottoman Empire in Anatolia and the Middle East.

This'd give the Greeks more time before industrialization gets truly swinging to prepare their capital, Constantinople, to truly boom during this period. Bulgaria can be (potentially) Hellenified in part via socioeconomic pressures and a heavy focus on Hellenfication, Greek outlying islands can be seized from Venice, and Greek refugees from Anatolia settled in Greek Bulgaria to reinforce Hellenfication. With a more prosperous and stable state, less Greek emigration should also occur. And to top it off, Greece should follow in the footsteps of Europe's demographic transition resulting in very high population growth. Final product, Greece with a much heftier demographic presence(30 million? 40 million?) with a megacity comparable to OTL's Istanbul(maybe).
 
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