AHC: Argentine-Brazilian war in the 20th century

Taunay

Taunay

Your challenge is to have a war between Argentina and Brazil take place after 1900, you can make a war that involves the two countries on opposing coalitions if you so wish.
Personally, I can think of two possibilities:
1 - An Argentina that outright supports the Axis during WWII finds itself in conflict with an Allied Brazil
2 - The Argentine junta and the Brazilian military dictatorship collide (maybe after an invasion of Chile) in the late 70s and early 80s
 

brunosouzzxx

Maybe if Brazil remained a democracy and Argentina was in the hands of an even more hardline dictatorship, the construction of the Itaipu Dam could be used to increase tensions. I guess it would need more of a backstory for the two countries to be this close to a war so late in the XXth century, but all the negotiations regarding Itaipu were very tense as Argentina distrusted of Brazil intentions and of the impact the hydroelectric would have in it's own plans. Something akin to the recent Egypt-Ethiopia GERD Dam dispute.
 

Ramontxo

Donor
The one that nearly was is the Argentinian Chilean one for the Beagle Channel. It is my humble opinion that part of the Argentinian Junta mind process was knowing that they have been refused that war.
 
Taunay

Taunay

brunosouzzxx said:
Maybe if Brazil remained a democracy and Argentina was in the hands of an even more hardline dictatorship, the construction of the Itaipu Dam could be used to increase tensions. I guess it would need more of a backstory for the two countries to be this close to a war so late in the XXth century, but all the negotiations regarding Itaipu were very tense as Argentina distrusted of Brazil intentions and of the impact the hydroelectric would have in it's own plans. Something akin to the recent Egypt-Ethiopia GERD Dam dispute.
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Interesting, so a democratic Brazil has a greater chance of entering into a war against Argentina over Itaipu than OTL military regime did?
Ramontxo said:
The one that nearly was is the Argentinian Chilean one for the Beagle Channel. It is my humble opinion that part of the Argentinian Junta mind process was knowing that they have been refused that war.
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A war like this could really transpire into an entire Latin American war (Peru, Argentina vs Brazil, Chile)**

**Assuming of course that Uncle Sam doesn't intervene to prevent this outcome
 
juanml82

juanml82

Either a war due Itapu or Frente Amplio wins the Uruguayan elections in 1971, the Brazilian dictatorship invades Uruguay as they've considered and Argentina declares war on Brazil due fears of ending up with the Brazilian navy based on the other side of the River Plate, 45km away from Argentina's largest metropolis.

Considering Uncle Sam was nowhere to be seen during the 1978 near war between Argentina and Chile and a Brazilian invasion of Uruguay in 1971 could happen too fast, I don't see the USA stopping it. The Brazilian dictatorship would claim it was preventing a communist government, the Argentine dictatorship, that it was acting according to the Rio Pact. Regarding a war over the Itapu dam, it depends on how the crisis unfolds.
 

holycookie

juanml82 said:
Either a war due Itapu or Frente Amplio wins the Uruguayan elections in 1971, the Brazilian dictatorship invades Uruguay as they've considered and Argentina declares war on Brazil due fears of ending up with the Brazilian navy based on the other side of the River Plate, 45km away from Argentina's largest metropolis.
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I think the invasion of Uruguay is the best option, it will bring back bad memories for Argentina when they were extremely vulnerable to Brazilian influence. It will be a violent war, Brazil had 97.48 million people in the period and Argentina 24.26 million people (Brazil had more than 4 times the population of Argentina). The Brazilian economy started in the 1970s still in the wave of the so-called “economic miracle”, with GDP growth rates in the double digits, on the other hand, Argentina was not in a good place economically (with the debt increasing wildly).

This might give the impression to the Argentine government that it was now or never to stop Brazilian dominance of the region (especially with the invasion of Uruguay taking place). If it occurs and brazil wins, it will legitimize the military government permanently, which probably indicates that the country will not fully democratize. It will be a bizarre mixture of military and democratic government. What will brazil take from argentina i don't know (reparations, right to exploit minerals, take territory) but these two countries will be enemies continuously until today. . But the more costly the war, the more the Brazilian population will want it.

This war has the possibility of pulling Paraguay and Chile (and maybe Bolivia and Peru against Chile). We can easily have a war that is more violent,larger and deadly than the one in paraguay. Which indicates that the US will have to choose one of the two to support in the long run (brazil or argentina). Or lose influence in the region with the winner feelingl a lesser need for dependency on the usa.
 
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athgtq16129

juanml82 said:
Either a war due Itapu or Frente Amplio wins the Uruguayan elections in 1971, the Brazilian dictatorship invades Uruguay as they've considered

The Brazilian dictatorship would claim it was preventing a communist government
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They considered this? I know that in the 1960s they considered invading French Guyana, but Uruguay?!
 

Arariboia Guamá

Perhaps Argentina developing some Jingoist ideology based on retaking the entire Vice-Royalty of the Plata and carving a Greater Argentina? It would be then natural to have to fight Brazil.

There was also a bunch of suspicion and distrust during the 60-70s if I remember right. But the end of their military regimes and increasing proximity put an end to that.
 

holycookie

athgtq16129 said:
They considered this? I know that in the 1960s they considered invading French Guyana, but Uruguay?!
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The Brazilian military dictatorship was willing to invade Uruguay to stop the communist advance with Uruguay being a place with large movements and terrorist cells pro-communism. The name of the option was: ‘Operação 30 Horas’ (Operation 30 Hours), the time it would take to control the neighboring country from the border of Rio Grande do Sul to Montevideo.

In addition to the "Expansion of Communism" theme, there was the Brazilian expansionist feeling, matured enough by the military, who imagined that Uruguay was the right place to start (a low risk initial test for future wars). The Brazilian strategy was to carry out a quick invasion, to prevent or weaken the Argentine reaction: the only thing left for the dissatisfied was the discussion at the UN. Later testimonies confirmed that the day before the Uruguayan elections, Brazilian troops were mobilized and ready to start the operation.
 
Xenophonte

Xenophonte

holycookie said:
I think the invasion of Uruguay is the best option, it will bring back bad memories for Argentina when they were extremely vulnerable to Brazilian influence. It will be a violent war, Brazil had 97.48 million people in the period and Argentina 24.26 million people (Brazil had more than 4 times the population of Argentina). The Brazilian economy started in the 1970s still in the wave of the so-called “economic miracle”, with GDP growth rates in the double digits, on the other hand, Argentina was not in a good place economically (with the debt increasing wildly).
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Except, that, and putting aside that the so called ' Brazilian invasion plan' was, at best, a worst scenario like military scenario, the precondition for that it be given any serious consideration, the victory of the (Leftist coalition) Frente Amplio, not have had any chances to happen... IOTL, in the Uruguayan elections, the recently founded FA, with a great election, it only got the 18% (the third place.
IMO, the more likely scenario, for an Argentine-Brazil, militar clash or even an outright war to happen would still 'd involve to Uruguay. But, in the IIWW , with the OTL US proposed (to the Uruguayan government)/planed and seemingly US- Uruguay negotiated project for built and operated an air-naval US base in Uruguay,'s Atlantic coasts... Which the Argentine military government felt menaced for and strongly opposed, but that get downvoted in the Uruguayan Parliament.
 

Monk78

We have debated the political side so far , from a purely military standpoint how do Brazil and Argentina compare with each other ?
 
Xenophonte

Xenophonte

Mildtryth said:
Frankly, i think the most plausible option was if the Palmas Question had somehow escalated into warfare, but that was before 1900, so...
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I disagree, it would be very unlikely, if broadening the perspective and taking into account the turn of XIX century Southern Cone political/military & diplomatic regional context would indicate the suggested scenario unlikeness for that it could escalate from diplomatic litigio to an open conflict.
Cause, should be noted that in the last half but worsened in the last decades of the XIX , with an 'armed peace' like situation, both the Argentine and Chilean States were living through a period of pre war tensions. Which, were the result from decades long Naval race and the steadily increased political-military/naval border tensions fueled by both governments and press, nationalistic rhetoric.
So, given that I'd suppose that the Argentinian government worried, as was with, from their perspective, an incoming naval-land war with Chile would be extremely unwilling to let's escalate it and be involved in a two front war with both Brazil and Chile.
 
L'amateur d'aéroplanes

L'amateur d'aéroplanes

i9713ta3w3e51.jpg


Column of Brazilian Sherman during the crossing of Paraguay to take the Argentine defense from behind. 12 april 1944.
 
Taunay

Taunay

Monk78 said:
On land and sea ?

Are the big powers likely to be involved esp in the Cold War era ?
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Brazil historically had a strong navy although this had changed in the early 20th century. On land Brazil outnumbers Argentina and its military industry is bigger.
 

brunosouzzxx

Taunay said:
o a democratic Brazil has a greater chance of entering into a war against Argentina over Itaipu than OTL military regime did?
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Not necessarily, I suggested it as more of a quick way to antagonize the countries
juanml82 said:
Either a war due Itapu or Frente Amplio wins the Uruguayan elections in 1971, the Brazilian dictatorship invades Uruguay as they've considered and Argentina declares war on Brazil
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Or both! That would be explosive.

Also, through the XXth century Argentina tried to isolate Brazilian influence in LatAm, using language and culture as points of approach with other hispanic countries. Maybe if an antagonistic Brazil finds a way to break the Argentinian strategy and have some countries clearly alligned with it rather than with the hermanos...
 
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