AHC: A more populous Soviet Union

[TuberAlloy]

IOTL the USSR underwent rapid demographic transition coupled with catastrophic events that stripped its population to levels well below its potential, given Russia's vast land and resources. With a POD after the second world war, is it possible for the Soviet Union to encourage rural settlement, specially west of the Urals, or otherwise increase its TFR such that Russia (or the RSFSR) has a population of at least 220+ million by the modern day?

 

[Lalli]

After WW2? I don't think that being possible. Even if you do some meaningful reforms which no one try retcon you probably end to pretty similar demographics issues.

 

[Kohlticus Euraleth]

I don't think a population of 220+ million is possible with a POD after WW2, but avoiding the demographic catastrophe of the 90s in Eastern Europe would probably result in the entire region having a few million more people. Right up until the end of the 80s most of the Pact nations, Russia included, had higher birth rates than Western Europe, and today of course the situation is reversed.

 

[TuberAlloy]

After WW2? I don't think that being possible. Even if you do some meaningful reforms which no one try retcon you probably end to pretty similar demographics issues.

Right after WW2 could be an opportune moment for Russia to have a baby boom with the right POD, the Soviet birth rate was something like half that of the US and other victorious allies, if you could somehow avert that then it would result in a massive population increase down the line

 

[JanWellem]

Right after WW2 could be an opportune moment for Russia to have a baby boom with the right POD, the Soviet birth rate was something like half that of the US and other victorious allies, if you could somehow avert that then it would result in a massive population increase down the line

There were several reason for this:
- The USSR suffered between 8 and 20 times as many military casualties per capita as the western allies, which led to certain age cohorts losing up to 50% of unmarried men. For many women there simply were no men to marry and start a family with.
- Unlike in the west, where most women after the war had to vacate their jobs for returning war veterans and had no choice but to marry and become house wifes and frequently endure marriage to mentally scarred, often abusive husbands, a majority of the women in the USSR remained employed and had a choice.
- Large portions of the country had been devestated by the war and more often than not it took many years before the cities became habitable again, not exactly a good environment to start a family in.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Prohibiting contraception and deurbanizing would do it. Have the population moved to rural areas with busses to take them to/from their jobs.

 

[irispaiva]

perhaps if the soviets luck it out and attack germany first, therefore sparing a big chunk of the population from dying, that would really help with the tfr

 

[Lalli]

perhaps if the soviets luck it out and attack germany first, therefore sparing a big chunk of the population from dying, that would really help with the tfr

OP says after 1945.

 

[irispaiva]

OP says after 1945.

well shit, i guess whomever replaces stalin would need to enforce a strategy opposite of one mao employed in china, but good luck trying to enforce a breeding campaign, maybe if it granted one exemption from military service or something

 

[SpaceRome]

You could try and go the Romanian route, but that would leave the USSR even poorer and more politically unstable (you can ask Nicolae Ceaușescu how pro-natalist policies go). If someone in this thread comes up with a natalist policy that doesn't compromise a state's economic growth and political stability, I know of several (read: every) governments that would be interested in hearing it.

The other route is encouraging immigration. Where would the USSR draw from? China (pre split), Latin America and Subsaharan Africa seem like the likeliest candidates, but I'm not knowledgeable enough on Soviet race/ethnic politics to predict how that could turn out.

 

[TuberAlloy]

You could try and go the Romanian route, but that would leave the USSR even poorer and more politically unstable (you can ask Nicolae Ceaușescu how pro-natalist policies go). If someone in this thread comes up with a natalist policy that doesn't compromise a state's economic growth and political stability, I know of several (read: every) governments that would be interested in hearing it.

The other route is encouraging immigration. Where would the USSR draw from? China (pre split), Latin America and Subsaharan Africa seem like the likeliest candidates, but I'm not knowledgeable enough on Soviet race/ethnic politics to predict how that could turn out.

Wouldn't a poorer and more rural population be easier to control? IMO a larger Russian/Slavic population would dampen ethnic separatism, especially if the Russian population is big enough to make the ethnics a minority in their own nation.

 

[Alexniko]

IOTL the USSR underwent rapid demographic transition coupled with catastrophic events that stripped its population to levels well below its potential, given Russia's vast land and resources. With a POD after the second world war, is it possible for the Soviet Union to encourage rural settlement, specially west of the Urals, or otherwise increase its TFR such that Russia (or the RSFSR) has a population of at least 220+ million by the modern day?

Possible under the right circumstances. Ceaușescu-esque pro-natalist policies coud've certainly bolstered birth rates by quite a substantial margin. Yet since these policies were a specifically Romanian phenomenon at the time, I have a hard time seeing it actually happen.

 

[irispaiva]

(you can ask Nicolae Ceaușescu how pro-natalist policies go)

i don't think i can do that, but i get your point

Wouldn't a poorer and more rural population be easier to control

i think the soviets actually tried that otl, by reviving the internal passport system, the propiska, if im not wrong