Anchises
Banned
(Disclaimer: I am not condoning genocidal violence from any side. Please don't turn this thread into something that belongs into chat. This forum usually handles complex/ difficult topics well and I hope to see the same here. Especially as I just read the news about the horrible things happening in Gaza after finishing this massive bloc of text urgh.)
This is something I have encountered several times. Not necessarily in a TL I could name but in several discussions here and on other forums with AH related content.
We have a hypothetical world where NATO ,or an equivalent Western alliance, fares worse than IOTL. Usually the early Cold War still happens similar to OTL, so the players on the global stage are roughly the same. Somwhere in the mid or late CW NATO starts having really bad luck. Usually we are talking about Dystopic scenarios, Soviet wanks, USA turns (crypto-)fascist, Germany reemerges as the 4th Reich and other stuff like that. Even "conventional WW3s" (no nuclear apocalypse) where the Soviets win or at least come out stronger are a possibility here.
My point being:
In all of these scenarios Israel recieves no/little western aid and/or there is no or very little "western oversight".
As a consequence we often see very extreme scenarios.
1) "The Destruction of Israel"
All of the Arab states set aside their differences. An outside source (usually the SU or the magic land of handwavium) provides a massive ammount of war material. The massive flaws of the Arab armies are either ignored, fixed (often skippy the ASB helps here...) or equalized by crushing numerical and material superiority.
The IDF fights valiantly in most scenarios but eventually succumbs to Arab armies. Often Israel is unable to purchase war materials and/or runs out of manpower.
The triumphant Arabs march into Israel and then often terrible stuff happens. At least Israel stops existing and jewish citizens of Palestine are discriminated/forced to emigrate.
My problems with this scenario:
Israel won against crushing material and numerical superiority several times. So a total Arab victory only seems likely, if Israel basically recieves no war material at all, and had no time to establish a domestic arms industry.
So this scenario only makes sense in the early CW, from my point of view. Once Israel has a somewhat thriving economy and a professional army, I just don't see a total Arab victory, without a massive foreign expeditionary force helping the Arabs. In the mid and late CW Israel has a domestic arms industry, an economy stable enough to potentially buy weapons elswhere and nukes. I just don't see the Arab armies marching into Tel Aviv under these circumstances. A massive "weißbluten" (bleeding Israel out) might be possible but I only see a negotiated peace with Israeli concessions as a possibility in this case. This however ignores the problem, that titanic losses against Israel, might widen the deep religious and cultural divisions between Arab countries/groups.
And we have the "problem", that the early CW was (arguably) a USA wank. In the late 40s and the 50s the USA were on the top of their game in terms of relative strength. And without massively altering ITTLs USA, I just don't see a world where the USA allows a second genocide of jews, especially with the Holocaust in recent memory. The Soviets are also still gravely weakened from WW2. They don't have the economic muscle for massive "revolutionary aid" for the Arab comrades. Sure they can send some weapons but there are probably other focal points of the CW and the Politbureau needs to prioritize...
(There are some excellent timelines, who pull of late WW2/early CW PODs where the USA becomes massively antisemitic or is preoccupied elswhere. I am not saying it is impossible but it is not the norm.)
2) Greater Israel/Genocidal Zionist Crusaders
This is the polar opposite of the "Israel destroyed" scenario.
The West isn't looking or can't do much about it (or is actually helping...). This causes the most crazy and criminal idelogues of the Zionist movement to take over (I doubt that these Zionist proponents of genocide actually exist but whatever...).
Israel essentially overruns its neighbouring states and starts massive programms of expulsion or outright murder. Bonus points if this "rogue Israel" uses nukes and bases its claims on neighbouring countries on the most ridiculous Zionist wanks that no one takes seriously IOTL.
My problems with this scenario:
Where do I start? I don't think Israel could pull that off. Israel (from my PoV) is able to crush organized Arab armies rather easily but they don't have the manpower or "stomach" (those pesky human rights) to "depopulate" (obviously a horrible euphemism) vast Arab areas. The IDF according to Creveld might be heavily inspired by Wehrmacht doctrines but luckily proves to be vastly superior morally by not emulating the crimes commited by the Wehrmacht.
Sure, the "stomach" can be explained with PODs but we still have the problem of fanatical Arab resistance. Martyrs and fanatical resistance are deeply rooted in Arab culture. Israel just doesn't have the manpower to occupy vast areas filled with a resisting population, at least not for the long term.
This either leaves the writer of a dystopia with liberal use of WMDs or some kind of "Generalplan Ost" that quickly kills off vast swathes of a hostile population (I feel really sick talking about Israel commiting Nazi-level crimes, just feels wrong). I don't see a "Generalplan Ost" happening because Israel simply lacks the manpower compared to the Arab countries and the ME lacks the requirements to weaponize hunger.
WMDs are also not realistic imho. Israel could easily damage itself heavily by using WMDs on its neighbours. They would also create massive streams of refugees, which would fuck up the oil industry in the ME and possibly Iran. I doubt that the world could and would accept that long term because the world economy needs ME oil at a certain point.
So:
What is the point of this analysis/rant?
Well I just want to discuss the role of Israel in scenarios where OTLs world order with a dominant or at least strong Western block (that supports Israel) is broken/never happened.
I really love dystopic scenarios (as thought excercises) and I think the key for a fantastic and chilling dystopia is a degree of realism. The ME is often used as a stage for over the top horrors and (war) crimes in dystopias. This is not necessarily realistic and has sometimes broken my suspension of disbelief when reading stories or discussing scenarios.
So lets discuss scenarios more grounded in reality. What would happen to the ME and Israel in a world with little (Western) oversight to prop up Israel and to work towards a peaceful solution of the ME conflict.
Or you could tell me why I am wrong and why apocalyptical flames are exactly what would happen (without devolving into chat)!
This is something I have encountered several times. Not necessarily in a TL I could name but in several discussions here and on other forums with AH related content.
We have a hypothetical world where NATO ,or an equivalent Western alliance, fares worse than IOTL. Usually the early Cold War still happens similar to OTL, so the players on the global stage are roughly the same. Somwhere in the mid or late CW NATO starts having really bad luck. Usually we are talking about Dystopic scenarios, Soviet wanks, USA turns (crypto-)fascist, Germany reemerges as the 4th Reich and other stuff like that. Even "conventional WW3s" (no nuclear apocalypse) where the Soviets win or at least come out stronger are a possibility here.
My point being:
In all of these scenarios Israel recieves no/little western aid and/or there is no or very little "western oversight".
As a consequence we often see very extreme scenarios.
1) "The Destruction of Israel"
All of the Arab states set aside their differences. An outside source (usually the SU or the magic land of handwavium) provides a massive ammount of war material. The massive flaws of the Arab armies are either ignored, fixed (often skippy the ASB helps here...) or equalized by crushing numerical and material superiority.
The IDF fights valiantly in most scenarios but eventually succumbs to Arab armies. Often Israel is unable to purchase war materials and/or runs out of manpower.
The triumphant Arabs march into Israel and then often terrible stuff happens. At least Israel stops existing and jewish citizens of Palestine are discriminated/forced to emigrate.
My problems with this scenario:
Israel won against crushing material and numerical superiority several times. So a total Arab victory only seems likely, if Israel basically recieves no war material at all, and had no time to establish a domestic arms industry.
So this scenario only makes sense in the early CW, from my point of view. Once Israel has a somewhat thriving economy and a professional army, I just don't see a total Arab victory, without a massive foreign expeditionary force helping the Arabs. In the mid and late CW Israel has a domestic arms industry, an economy stable enough to potentially buy weapons elswhere and nukes. I just don't see the Arab armies marching into Tel Aviv under these circumstances. A massive "weißbluten" (bleeding Israel out) might be possible but I only see a negotiated peace with Israeli concessions as a possibility in this case. This however ignores the problem, that titanic losses against Israel, might widen the deep religious and cultural divisions between Arab countries/groups.
And we have the "problem", that the early CW was (arguably) a USA wank. In the late 40s and the 50s the USA were on the top of their game in terms of relative strength. And without massively altering ITTLs USA, I just don't see a world where the USA allows a second genocide of jews, especially with the Holocaust in recent memory. The Soviets are also still gravely weakened from WW2. They don't have the economic muscle for massive "revolutionary aid" for the Arab comrades. Sure they can send some weapons but there are probably other focal points of the CW and the Politbureau needs to prioritize...
(There are some excellent timelines, who pull of late WW2/early CW PODs where the USA becomes massively antisemitic or is preoccupied elswhere. I am not saying it is impossible but it is not the norm.)
2) Greater Israel/Genocidal Zionist Crusaders
This is the polar opposite of the "Israel destroyed" scenario.
The West isn't looking or can't do much about it (or is actually helping...). This causes the most crazy and criminal idelogues of the Zionist movement to take over (I doubt that these Zionist proponents of genocide actually exist but whatever...).
Israel essentially overruns its neighbouring states and starts massive programms of expulsion or outright murder. Bonus points if this "rogue Israel" uses nukes and bases its claims on neighbouring countries on the most ridiculous Zionist wanks that no one takes seriously IOTL.
My problems with this scenario:
Where do I start? I don't think Israel could pull that off. Israel (from my PoV) is able to crush organized Arab armies rather easily but they don't have the manpower or "stomach" (those pesky human rights) to "depopulate" (obviously a horrible euphemism) vast Arab areas. The IDF according to Creveld might be heavily inspired by Wehrmacht doctrines but luckily proves to be vastly superior morally by not emulating the crimes commited by the Wehrmacht.
Sure, the "stomach" can be explained with PODs but we still have the problem of fanatical Arab resistance. Martyrs and fanatical resistance are deeply rooted in Arab culture. Israel just doesn't have the manpower to occupy vast areas filled with a resisting population, at least not for the long term.
This either leaves the writer of a dystopia with liberal use of WMDs or some kind of "Generalplan Ost" that quickly kills off vast swathes of a hostile population (I feel really sick talking about Israel commiting Nazi-level crimes, just feels wrong). I don't see a "Generalplan Ost" happening because Israel simply lacks the manpower compared to the Arab countries and the ME lacks the requirements to weaponize hunger.
WMDs are also not realistic imho. Israel could easily damage itself heavily by using WMDs on its neighbours. They would also create massive streams of refugees, which would fuck up the oil industry in the ME and possibly Iran. I doubt that the world could and would accept that long term because the world economy needs ME oil at a certain point.
So:
What is the point of this analysis/rant?
Well I just want to discuss the role of Israel in scenarios where OTLs world order with a dominant or at least strong Western block (that supports Israel) is broken/never happened.
I really love dystopic scenarios (as thought excercises) and I think the key for a fantastic and chilling dystopia is a degree of realism. The ME is often used as a stage for over the top horrors and (war) crimes in dystopias. This is not necessarily realistic and has sometimes broken my suspension of disbelief when reading stories or discussing scenarios.
So lets discuss scenarios more grounded in reality. What would happen to the ME and Israel in a world with little (Western) oversight to prop up Israel and to work towards a peaceful solution of the ME conflict.
Or you could tell me why I am wrong and why apocalyptical flames are exactly what would happen (without devolving into chat)!
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