Accountability: The Fall of Bill Clinton
- Thread starter Whanztastic
- Start date
Ch. 7b: Gore and Gephardt
Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin publicly announced that he would resign on May 12, 1999. President Al Gore held a Rose Garden ceremony to laud his “steady hand” in helping guide the economy. Surprising none, Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was named as the choice to follow Rubin. Rubin had been actively grooming Summers as his replacement. It was well received across the spectrum of observers. Gore and all his potential rivals knew the strong economy would be his primary asset in reelection.
With the House in Democratic hands, Speaker Dick Gephardt was in a strong position to prioritize his own agenda. Gephardt and Gore had a long history together. Both House Freshman in 1977, they were two determined men whose motivations had ran into each other before, but the public rift had started back in 1988, during a nasty debate while they were both running for President. In only a way that Presidential politics could cause, disputes over trade had turned personal. But now, 11 years later, they were the two most powerful men in Washington. Tempers had cooled with age but there were still disagreements.
With Chinese trade relation status on the backburner, the next issue splitting the two Democrat leaders was banking reform. Citicorp and Travelers Group had merged the previous year. The Federal Reserve had granted a temporary waiver, as the merger of banking, securities, and insurance would be a violation of the Glass-Steagall Act. Although largely backed by Republicans, Gore had been amenable to what was being billed as ‘financial modernization’. The President said Depression-era constraints did not make sense in a modern, digital world. The liberal argument was that with expanded banking options, new opportunities could be made available to financially under-serviced communities. While Gephardt was on record in approval of a bill, the majority of House Democrats were not. A compromise was struck before the August recess. Gephardt would allow the amended Financial Services Modernization bill on the House floor, knowing it would pass with a Republican majority and a Democratic minority. As a compromise, it would include a modest minimum wage increase and inflation-pegged reform.
One small note - you seem to have listed the seventh part of this TL as Chapter 6 and the eighth part as Chapter 7... Did you split Chapter 6 into two sections or is this a mistake?
I have 7 and 7b now. The Gephardt - Gore bit is really just a subset of early 1999.
Going by how the effect of the clinton impeachment drama OTL was both parties becoming more prude overall, plus the seeds of current types of democratic prudery were set up an outright removal means things get bad.
Think gays in mental institutions in 2020* instead of gay marriage.
* Dems as medicalizing homosexuality/sodomy while GOPers favor punitive approaches.
Think gays in mental institutions in 2020* instead of gay marriage.
* Dems as medicalizing homosexuality/sodomy while GOPers favor punitive approaches.
No... I don't think that sort of scenario is feasible in a 90s era POD unless were talking straight collapse of American society.
You don't need societal collapse, you just need both parties deciding to go more moralistic and throw LGBT under the bus. Clinton being removed and not just impeached for something sex-related would do that. His being impeached at all in OTL is imo why it was gore/lieberman and not someone else who was both less prudish and more electable running in 2000.
Ch. 8: Republican Primary Beginnings
In June, Texas Governor George Bush had announced his decision. Since his easy reelection last fall, he had been in constant discussion with his closest advisors, family, and friends about whether or not to run for President in 2000. After much discussion, Bush would not be running for President. Karl Rove made the best points within his camp – Gore was likely to be reelected with the economy the way it was and Clinton’s baggage out of the picture. And Gore would be term limited, unable to run in 2004. Another term as Governor or would be no issue in Texas. Bush also said his twin daughters were going to graduate high school in 200 and he wanted to spend a bit more time with them. 2004 was the year for him. Early Bush backers like James Baker were disappointed. Donors and bundlers, mostly from Texas, began searching for other candidates. Elizabeth Dole was now the perceived front-runner in most opinion polls and media coverage, but the Iowa caucuses were still seven months away.
The Republican field was still holding stable by the time President Al Gore officially announced he was running for reelection in September. Elizabeth Dole was still leading the Republican pack during this period. “Soccer moms”, an influential swing vote, had given Clinton the edge in 1996. Dole’s potential candidacy as a feasible female candidate brought extra attention and speculation to the contest. Could Gore keep women in the Democratic camp while running against a woman?
---
As the economy continued its streak of good news in late 1999, polling showed a ‘mellowing’ of public opinion since the beginning of the decade. In November, Pew released a poll showing changes in public opinion. The amount of people saying they “have no say in government” and that “government is wasteful and inefficient” were both down since the early 90s. This was good news for the incumbent President, who continually led in one-on-one horserace polls against his potential Republican contenders.
But it also contained some concerns for Gore, as the Republican front runner Elizabeth Dole showed more cross-over support than Gore himself. In a lesson that would be ignored time after time, voters expressed that candidate qualities like personality and perceived experience may trump the specific issues they openly supported. Again, this broke against Gore, where conservative leaners were issue-orientated and left-leaning independents or moderates were focused on candidate qualities, causing conservatives to oppose him on the issues but leaners to not be really interested in his public persona.
By the fall of 1999 the Republican field had been whittled down further. Businessman Donald Trump and television personality Pat Buchanan had both dropped out of the Republican race to contest the Reform Party candidacy, which would come with $12.5 million in matching funds. In Trump’s statement, he denounced Republican extremist and called Buchanan a “bigot” and “Hitler lover.” Most serious spectators thought little of either campaign’s chances, first having to challenge previous Gubernatorial candidate Jesse Ventura who was popular in the fringe party. Despite the media attention, public polling showed any appetite for a third-party candidate to be considerably lower than 1992 or 1996.
The first Republican debate on October 22nd had eleven people on stage; frontrunner Elizabeth Dole did not attend due to a “scheduling conflict”, a move which was likely a power move to keep her candidacy seen as above the others. The wide number of candidates made the forum unwieldy. Bob Smith’s introduction was just flat out missed as he walked on stage. Alan Keyes and Gary Bauer tried to use vocal outbursts to get any traction. Lamar Alexander and Orrin Hatch were seemingly forgot about halfway through and failed to get any direct questioning. Without Dole, Newt Gingrich was the center of attention. John McCain, Dan Quayle, Jack Kemp, and John Kasich all went on the attack against the former Speaker. Hoping to provoke a response, Gingrich parried rather than attacking back as expected, appearing above the fray. While not widely watched, the post-debate reporting boosted Gingrich’s standing. He was a familiar figure to television news personalities and certainly benefited from simple name recognition.
The second debate would not be held until December and candidate “cattle calls” defined the schedule. Without funding or much of a backing, Jack Kemp and Lamar Alexander had dropped out. After Gingrich’s boost from the previous debate, Elizabeth Dole’s schedule got worked out and she was able to attend. Being the only woman, the debate’s quality shifted. Gingrich changed strategies and attacked the frontrunner for her lack of campaign experience. John McCain went on the attack as well, citing weakness on foreign policy. But Dole was prepared, deflecting by calling out Gingrich’s failure to contest the midterm losses and “reminding” McCain of her Red Cross experience in turn. The attacks against Dole came off poorly on camera in this more widely watched televised debate. Kasich would seize the moment as well, saying Gingrich was taking credit for Kasich’s work, having been Chairman of the House Budget Committee as they balanced the budget. With Quayle dominating in the ‘family values’ lane, Bauer failed to break through again and would drop out before the end of the year.
Last edited:
It lives!
I like how the Republican race is shaping up, and I think this will be a '92 situation where prominent Democrats stayed out only to realize too late it was the year to beat Bush. My only question is Kemp. Why did he do so poorly? As the former running mate of Dole, it seems like he would have financial connections and establishment support? I don't think he'd coalesce like Bush did, but I think the idea the establishment would split between him and Liddy Dole is plausible.
I like how the Republican race is shaping up, and I think this will be a '92 situation where prominent Democrats stayed out only to realize too late it was the year to beat Bush. My only question is Kemp. Why did he do so poorly? As the former running mate of Dole, it seems like he would have financial connections and establishment support? I don't think he'd coalesce like Bush did, but I think the idea the establishment would split between him and Liddy Dole is plausible.
I sort of wrote it aside, but there's some thinking here that exists even in a Bush-less 2000. The Gore-Kemp debate was sort of a shellacking that made quite the impression at the tme. It is remembered as a plain bad debate for Kemp. Quayle-Stockdale-Gore didn't leave the same impression. Dumb? Yes, but this direct head-to-head cast a shadow over the OTL 2000 early primary. Kemp was also sort of an outside figure. He first endorsed Forbes in the primary in 1996. He wasn't a party leader for most and there were grumbles in 1996 that Kemp gave up on the Dole campaign when it was apparent they'd lose and was in it only to set himself up in 2000.
Robert Novak, no liberal, reviewed it in 1996 as a seeming set-up for 2000 where Kemp falls short.
KEMP VS. GORE: BETTER LUCK NEXT TIME
Last edited:
Ch. 9: New Millennium, New Threats
As he prepared for reelection, President Gore was grateful for the relative quiet at home, as issues across the globe continued to flare up through 1999. Being the sole global superpower, the United States and its President continued to be dragged into every global issue. Ehud Barak’s election in Israel was good news for the peace process with Palestine, but the situation continued to be tenuous. India and Pakistan had almost come to a shooting war when some rogue general tried a stupid thing in Kashmir. China had another flair of human rights criticism by trying to crackdown on the Falun Gong spiritual movement, something that certainly did not help his Gore’s attempt to open them for preferred trade agreements. Gore’s morning briefing usually contained dozens of other threats or warnings that most Americans never even considered. But his biggest concern was Russia.
While the peace in Yugoslavia was holding, Russia was seeming like a less stable partner. Dagestan and Chechnya continued to see intermittent fighting. And President Boris Yeltsin was tearing through Prime Ministers as he tried to keep his country and political standing afloat. Kremlinologists speculated what his strategy was, but the best analysis suggested that even Yeltsin did not know what he was doing on a day-to-day basis, a thinking later confirmed by his own accounts in Midnight Diaries. Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergey Stepashin on August 9 and appointed to the head of the FSB Vladimir Putin to replace him, the third such move in under a year. But the State Duma failed to approve Putin on the first vote. Yeltsin, ever the irrational gambler, rescinded Putin’s appointment and tried to call their bluff – he reappointed former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. Yeltsin said it was either Chernomyrdin or Putin; and given Chernomyrdin’s fall from grace during the Ruble crisis, the choice seemed obvious. But the Kosovo negotiations had increased his standing. The Duma leadership also assumed that Yeltsin would flip and dismiss him soon afterwards anyway. The Duma called Yeltsin’s bluff, and approved Chernomyrdin to once again be Prime Minister. Yeltsin was furious, as was Putin who felt like a pawn. While Gore was happy to see Chernomyrdin back in a position of power, it did not speak to Russia’s stability, especially as it went to war with its own people in Chechnya.
Chernomyrdin’s Prime Ministry would face immediate challenges. Russian forces crossed back into Chechnya to counter an insurgent attack. Then a series of terrorist bombings rocked the nation. Immediately the FSB identified Chechnyan extremists as the culprits after each attack but doubts remained internationally about the real culpability.
---
It was January 1st, 2000. For a second, people held their breath as the clock ticked over. The celebrations paused to make sure there was no doom, apocalyptic or Y2K-related. Thankfully, no doom apocalypse occurred. The new millennium had dawned. President Al Gore celebrated with thousands of others at the Washington Monument, lit up with splendor and glory. A few hours later though, late in the morning, an explosion ripped through a terminal at Los Angeles International Airport. Dozens were dead and wounded. Gore’s assumptions were confirmed by CIA Director George Tenet, who shared the intelligence community’s assessment this was likely again al-Qaeda, now striking on American soil.
Two days later, in Aden, Yemen, a small watercraft detonated in a suicide attack against the USS The Sullivans. The blast killed multiple sailors and put the ship out of commission. al-Qaeda had apparently coordinated both. While other possible plots had been foiled, the American security apparatus could not stop every threat. The world’s only superpower was not impervious. It was a tense three days, but on January 4th, Ahmed Ressam was detained while trying to slip back into Canada. A nation-wide crackdown on watched terror-related suspects coincided with a world-wide sweep. Most notably, a contemporaneous al-Qaeda meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was broken up by local officials with CIA support. Director Tenet took political heat for the apparent security lapses. In private, he stressed that the world remained a dangerous place, the risks numerous, and their resources were limited to combat these uncertain threats.
While the country reeled from more acts of modern terrorism and looked to security reforms, President Gore had also been keeping an eye on the economy. The booming 90s had begun to show signs that it was fading in the new millennium. The stock market gains were not going to last forever, with experts expecting the “bubble to pop” for at least two years now. The Federal Reserve had increased interest rates several times in the past year to adjust and prepare for a “soft landing” of the economy. Payrolls were still growing but everyone knew it would not last for long. With the economy on the cusp, Gore did not appoint Alan Greenspan to another term as Chairman. Instead, he appointed Roger Ferguson. It was somewhat of a shock to outside observers. Greenspan had been in the role for 13 years and was seen as the architect of 90s prosperity. Ferguson, despite some policy agreements, was effectively being groomed by Greenspan, but the outgoing Chairman had planned on one more term. This caused some raised eyebrows in Washington and on Wall Street. With his reelection in sight, Gore needed to adjust his messaging and his priorities. Ferguson brought a new philosophy to the Federal Reserve, looking to modernize its communication and focus on how technology impacted financial markets. While grilled by Senate Republicans, Greenspan vouched for his deputy, and Ferguson made history as the first African-American Federal Reserve Chairman.
As the primary season began, Gore began to openly campaign as well. Without any serious competition (i.e. only Lyndon LaRouche), Gore used the primaries as a warm-up for the general election. Iowa and New Hampshire would likely be swing states in this election against whomever succeeded on the Republican side. Internally, Vice President Cohen had yet to acclimate to his Constitutionally powerless role. Gore, despite his sympathy for the position, had difficultly letting go of decision-making and delegating to his Vice President. Cohen was a foreign policy expect, but Gore was as well. Nominally independent at this point, Cohen for obvious reasons was not interested in partisan campaigning. He had agreed to serve his country in a moment of crisis, which had passed. Serious talks were happening behind closed doors and less serious talks were happening on opinion pages – who would add value to a ticket for a Gore?
While the peace in Yugoslavia was holding, Russia was seeming like a less stable partner. Dagestan and Chechnya continued to see intermittent fighting. And President Boris Yeltsin was tearing through Prime Ministers as he tried to keep his country and political standing afloat. Kremlinologists speculated what his strategy was, but the best analysis suggested that even Yeltsin did not know what he was doing on a day-to-day basis, a thinking later confirmed by his own accounts in Midnight Diaries. Yeltsin dismissed Prime Minister Sergey Stepashin on August 9 and appointed to the head of the FSB Vladimir Putin to replace him, the third such move in under a year. But the State Duma failed to approve Putin on the first vote. Yeltsin, ever the irrational gambler, rescinded Putin’s appointment and tried to call their bluff – he reappointed former Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin. Yeltsin said it was either Chernomyrdin or Putin; and given Chernomyrdin’s fall from grace during the Ruble crisis, the choice seemed obvious. But the Kosovo negotiations had increased his standing. The Duma leadership also assumed that Yeltsin would flip and dismiss him soon afterwards anyway. The Duma called Yeltsin’s bluff, and approved Chernomyrdin to once again be Prime Minister. Yeltsin was furious, as was Putin who felt like a pawn. While Gore was happy to see Chernomyrdin back in a position of power, it did not speak to Russia’s stability, especially as it went to war with its own people in Chechnya.
Chernomyrdin’s Prime Ministry would face immediate challenges. Russian forces crossed back into Chechnya to counter an insurgent attack. Then a series of terrorist bombings rocked the nation. Immediately the FSB identified Chechnyan extremists as the culprits after each attack but doubts remained internationally about the real culpability.
---
It was January 1st, 2000. For a second, people held their breath as the clock ticked over. The celebrations paused to make sure there was no doom, apocalyptic or Y2K-related. Thankfully, no doom apocalypse occurred. The new millennium had dawned. President Al Gore celebrated with thousands of others at the Washington Monument, lit up with splendor and glory. A few hours later though, late in the morning, an explosion ripped through a terminal at Los Angeles International Airport. Dozens were dead and wounded. Gore’s assumptions were confirmed by CIA Director George Tenet, who shared the intelligence community’s assessment this was likely again al-Qaeda, now striking on American soil.
Two days later, in Aden, Yemen, a small watercraft detonated in a suicide attack against the USS The Sullivans. The blast killed multiple sailors and put the ship out of commission. al-Qaeda had apparently coordinated both. While other possible plots had been foiled, the American security apparatus could not stop every threat. The world’s only superpower was not impervious. It was a tense three days, but on January 4th, Ahmed Ressam was detained while trying to slip back into Canada. A nation-wide crackdown on watched terror-related suspects coincided with a world-wide sweep. Most notably, a contemporaneous al-Qaeda meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was broken up by local officials with CIA support. Director Tenet took political heat for the apparent security lapses. In private, he stressed that the world remained a dangerous place, the risks numerous, and their resources were limited to combat these uncertain threats.
The President addressed the nation the following week, calling for a special commission to investigate the attacks and what could have been done to stop them. Ressam had been on terrorist watch lists but had still entered the country. In his State of the Union a few weeks later, Gore preempted some of the suggestions that would come out of the Hart-Rudman Task Force on Homeland Security and asked Congress to review potential structural reforms of the intelligence community. He refused calls to replace Tenet, whose standing with Congress improved with well received briefings and hearings that late winter and early spring.While the country reeled from more acts of modern terrorism and looked to security reforms, President Gore had also been keeping an eye on the economy. The booming 90s had begun to show signs that it was fading in the new millennium. The stock market gains were not going to last forever, with experts expecting the “bubble to pop” for at least two years now. The Federal Reserve had increased interest rates several times in the past year to adjust and prepare for a “soft landing” of the economy. Payrolls were still growing but everyone knew it would not last for long. With the economy on the cusp, Gore did not appoint Alan Greenspan to another term as Chairman. Instead, he appointed Roger Ferguson. It was somewhat of a shock to outside observers. Greenspan had been in the role for 13 years and was seen as the architect of 90s prosperity. Ferguson, despite some policy agreements, was effectively being groomed by Greenspan, but the outgoing Chairman had planned on one more term. This caused some raised eyebrows in Washington and on Wall Street. With his reelection in sight, Gore needed to adjust his messaging and his priorities. Ferguson brought a new philosophy to the Federal Reserve, looking to modernize its communication and focus on how technology impacted financial markets. While grilled by Senate Republicans, Greenspan vouched for his deputy, and Ferguson made history as the first African-American Federal Reserve Chairman.
As the primary season began, Gore began to openly campaign as well. Without any serious competition (i.e. only Lyndon LaRouche), Gore used the primaries as a warm-up for the general election. Iowa and New Hampshire would likely be swing states in this election against whomever succeeded on the Republican side. Internally, Vice President Cohen had yet to acclimate to his Constitutionally powerless role. Gore, despite his sympathy for the position, had difficultly letting go of decision-making and delegating to his Vice President. Cohen was a foreign policy expect, but Gore was as well. Nominally independent at this point, Cohen for obvious reasons was not interested in partisan campaigning. He had agreed to serve his country in a moment of crisis, which had passed. Serious talks were happening behind closed doors and less serious talks were happening on opinion pages – who would add value to a ticket for a Gore?
Last edited:
Welcome back! A few quick points on re-read (this is a great way to pass the time when I'm sitting on mind-numbing Zoom calls...)
That sound you hear is the fuse being lit on one of the causes of the OTL Great Recession. Assuming this timeline's Gramm-Leach is substantially similar to OTL's there's nothing preventing banks and investment houses from getting "too big to fail" and needing a bailout once their derivatives and other backed securities go bust.
However, on the flip side..
I don't know a ton about Roger Ferguson but Greenspan's easy-money philosophy was a contributor to the subprime bubble forming and all the disaster that entailed. Easy money means low interest rates means easier to sell subprime mortgages means more MBSes/derivitives/CDOs/etc means eventually that housing bubble bursts and we're all screwed. Greenspan advocating for adjustable-rate mortgages certainly didn't help, neither did his hands-off, businesses will self-regulate themselves mentality
Maybe Ferguson closes the tap of easy money in the early 2000s, preventing a bubble from forming in the first place? We'll wait and see. Keep up the good work!
That sound you hear is the fuse being lit on one of the causes of the OTL Great Recession. Assuming this timeline's Gramm-Leach is substantially similar to OTL's there's nothing preventing banks and investment houses from getting "too big to fail" and needing a bailout once their derivatives and other backed securities go bust.
However, on the flip side..
I don't know a ton about Roger Ferguson but Greenspan's easy-money philosophy was a contributor to the subprime bubble forming and all the disaster that entailed. Easy money means low interest rates means easier to sell subprime mortgages means more MBSes/derivitives/CDOs/etc means eventually that housing bubble bursts and we're all screwed. Greenspan advocating for adjustable-rate mortgages certainly didn't help, neither did his hands-off, businesses will self-regulate themselves mentality
Maybe Ferguson closes the tap of easy money in the early 2000s, preventing a bubble from forming in the first place? We'll wait and see. Keep up the good work!
Thanks, there’s some implied policy there didn’t want to bog it down and I consider your read astute. Ferguson was definitely of the same circles but not exactly the same as Greenspan, but there were few heroes around monetary policy and financial regulations at the time.
No, there certainly were not. But even a little regulation is better than the none that we got in OTL. This isn't a critique of the timeline mind you - there's no substantial reason a Gramm-Leach bill wouldn't get passed with a President Gore at the helm as opposed to President Clinton. Many 1990s Democrats were pretty moderate when it came to economic, regulatory, and monetary policy. So it makes sense that G-L got passed.
Ch. 10: The GOP Nominee
The dual Millennium attacks had a notable impact on the Republican primary. Unexpectedly, national security was again a subject of concern on the campaign trail. Republican kitchen table issues like social security solvency, school choice, and health care reforms took a step back for at least a few weeks. Senator John McCain had planned on skipping the Iowa caucuses, due to his vocal stance against ethanol. But with the attacks, his campaign made a last-ditch push and swing through Iowa as the strongest candidate on security. He called the attacks nothing short of an act of war. McCain also said that the attacks would not have happened if the Democrats and Gore had not been so distracted covering up for Clinton’s mess. The Gore White House responded by saying they would refrain from politicizing the loss of American lives. On January 20th, the President Gore announced cruise missile strikes had again been launched into Afghanistan, as happened in 1998. He also promised the American people that he was determined to have a long-term solution for the hotbed of terrorism.
The Iowa caucuses, as primaries often do, turned into an expectations game. Front-runner Elizabeth Dole garnered less than 40% of the vote. Dan Quayle, who had aggressive local organizers based around faith groups, surprised many by coming in second, albeit more than 10 points behind Dole. He was followed by Steve Forbes (who had existing organization from 1996), and then John McCain came in fourth. McCain was hurt by his national spotlight but local failure. He hoped to regain ground two weeks later in New Hampshire, a state that may award what being labeled a “maverick” campaign.
But a different candidate had beat him to the punch. While McCain’s campaign had made a last-minute change and attempted a national push, John Kasich had never left the Granite State. A late endorsement in the primary by The Boston Globe gave him a final push, coming in first by single-digits over McCain. Dole, although seen as the national front-runner, did not seriously campaign in the state and came in third. Trying to winnow down the crowded field, observers started to see the race as compressed to four candidates – Dole, Quayle, McCain, and Kasich. Despite his former prestige and inside credentials, Newt Gingrich was frustrated by his lack of connection with the larger public. The six debates held in January did not help the matter. Gingrich seemed frustrated by the effort, like he was owed the candidacy after his time as Speaker.
Kasich, who had been sort of ignored before by most reporting, saw a massive swell in media coverage. Youthful, detailed, and apparently decent, he was a mirror image of Bill Clinton 8 years prior, without the baggage. His personal story, the son of a mailman, was a throwback that played well with Republican nostalgia. Reporters relished his seemingly endless appetite at diners and restaurants on the campaign trail. But without the resources of the heavy-hitters, Kasich had difficulty breaking through the machines of other campaigns though. Dole would win Delaware on February 8th and then McCain in South Carolina, although sharing delegates with Dole and Quayle.
Arizona, home state to Quayle and McCain (Quayle only moving a few years earlier), was not close, with the Senator winning handedly. The same night, Kasich won Michigan by a slight margin over Dole, buoying his campaign. The Dole campaign grew concerned by its inability to break apart from the pack. Quayle seemed to be eating into her natural evangelical base; McCain was peeling away some outsider credentials. With the largest war chest, the previously sunny campaign went on a hard offensive. Push polls and anonymous fliers began to swirl. Voters were asked if they would vote for McCain if they knew if he was an atheist, or that he had mental imbalance issues after his war experience, or both. Rumors began swirling about Quayle’s health, saying he had not contested the 1996 election possibly because of cancer. It was dirty, bare-knuckle politics that Elizabeth Dole denounced publicly. And it worked.
Dole won Virginia on the 29th; then on Super Tuesday she carried California, New York, Washington, Missouri, Minnesota, Maryland, and Maine. Despite the media darling statuses of McCain and Kasich, it failed to compete with the developed machine of Dole. It was a delegate lead that no other candidate was likely to overcome. Gingrich (winning only his home state of Georgia), Kasich (having won Ohio), and Quayle all withdrew and endorsed Dole in the next couple days. McCain, incensed by the attacks against him, refused to withdraw until a week later, failing to win any more contests. And even after suspending his campaign, McCain did not immediately endorse Dole like the other candidates had.
On March 15th, Elizabeth Dole was de facto the first woman to be a presidential candidate from a major party.
The Iowa caucuses, as primaries often do, turned into an expectations game. Front-runner Elizabeth Dole garnered less than 40% of the vote. Dan Quayle, who had aggressive local organizers based around faith groups, surprised many by coming in second, albeit more than 10 points behind Dole. He was followed by Steve Forbes (who had existing organization from 1996), and then John McCain came in fourth. McCain was hurt by his national spotlight but local failure. He hoped to regain ground two weeks later in New Hampshire, a state that may award what being labeled a “maverick” campaign.
But a different candidate had beat him to the punch. While McCain’s campaign had made a last-minute change and attempted a national push, John Kasich had never left the Granite State. A late endorsement in the primary by The Boston Globe gave him a final push, coming in first by single-digits over McCain. Dole, although seen as the national front-runner, did not seriously campaign in the state and came in third. Trying to winnow down the crowded field, observers started to see the race as compressed to four candidates – Dole, Quayle, McCain, and Kasich. Despite his former prestige and inside credentials, Newt Gingrich was frustrated by his lack of connection with the larger public. The six debates held in January did not help the matter. Gingrich seemed frustrated by the effort, like he was owed the candidacy after his time as Speaker.
Kasich, who had been sort of ignored before by most reporting, saw a massive swell in media coverage. Youthful, detailed, and apparently decent, he was a mirror image of Bill Clinton 8 years prior, without the baggage. His personal story, the son of a mailman, was a throwback that played well with Republican nostalgia. Reporters relished his seemingly endless appetite at diners and restaurants on the campaign trail. But without the resources of the heavy-hitters, Kasich had difficulty breaking through the machines of other campaigns though. Dole would win Delaware on February 8th and then McCain in South Carolina, although sharing delegates with Dole and Quayle.
Arizona, home state to Quayle and McCain (Quayle only moving a few years earlier), was not close, with the Senator winning handedly. The same night, Kasich won Michigan by a slight margin over Dole, buoying his campaign. The Dole campaign grew concerned by its inability to break apart from the pack. Quayle seemed to be eating into her natural evangelical base; McCain was peeling away some outsider credentials. With the largest war chest, the previously sunny campaign went on a hard offensive. Push polls and anonymous fliers began to swirl. Voters were asked if they would vote for McCain if they knew if he was an atheist, or that he had mental imbalance issues after his war experience, or both. Rumors began swirling about Quayle’s health, saying he had not contested the 1996 election possibly because of cancer. It was dirty, bare-knuckle politics that Elizabeth Dole denounced publicly. And it worked.
Dole won Virginia on the 29th; then on Super Tuesday she carried California, New York, Washington, Missouri, Minnesota, Maryland, and Maine. Despite the media darling statuses of McCain and Kasich, it failed to compete with the developed machine of Dole. It was a delegate lead that no other candidate was likely to overcome. Gingrich (winning only his home state of Georgia), Kasich (having won Ohio), and Quayle all withdrew and endorsed Dole in the next couple days. McCain, incensed by the attacks against him, refused to withdraw until a week later, failing to win any more contests. And even after suspending his campaign, McCain did not immediately endorse Dole like the other candidates had.
On March 15th, Elizabeth Dole was de facto the first woman to be a presidential candidate from a major party.
Good update!
Wow that's a ton of debates. Like one every five days. 15-year-old me would have watched them all of course - I was just starting to get into politics in 2000.
I'm always amazed more candidates don't gain a ton of weight campaigning, especially nowadays when primary season is a year long. You gotta go to a bunch of diners and bars and banquets and while you are there you must try the pecan pie, it's the best in the county!
Did Lizzy hire Karl Rove? That's straight out of the Lee Atwater School Of Presidential Campaigns and mirrors some of what Rove did in 2000 and 2004.
As far as the meat of the update: It isn't implausible that a woman win the nomination, but it isn't likely either. But, that being said, you did a good job explaining the particulars so it makes sense.
On to the general. I dug up a LA times exit poll for Bush/Gore. Obviously this situation is far different, but it gives us some sort of baseline. Women voted for Gore over bush and Nader 55-43-2. You figure that margin will likely shrink but as always, we'll see.
Wow that's a ton of debates. Like one every five days. 15-year-old me would have watched them all of course - I was just starting to get into politics in 2000.
I'm always amazed more candidates don't gain a ton of weight campaigning, especially nowadays when primary season is a year long. You gotta go to a bunch of diners and bars and banquets and while you are there you must try the pecan pie, it's the best in the county!
Did Lizzy hire Karl Rove? That's straight out of the Lee Atwater School Of Presidential Campaigns and mirrors some of what Rove did in 2000 and 2004.
As far as the meat of the update: It isn't implausible that a woman win the nomination, but it isn't likely either. But, that being said, you did a good job explaining the particulars so it makes sense.
On to the general. I dug up a LA times exit poll for Bush/Gore. Obviously this situation is far different, but it gives us some sort of baseline. Women voted for Gore over bush and Nader 55-43-2. You figure that margin will likely shrink but as always, we'll see.