"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL

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The Worker's Party held the keys to Scotland

“The small radical party that holds the key to the new Scottish government wants the executive to have “three or four” premiers. The number-two official at the Worker's Party of Scotland, Aamer Anwar, said the new regional government could have “an ensemble presidency". This would unblock the impasse in Scottish politics after Patrick Harvie won the parliamentary election. Harvie, the most visible face of the pro-independence movement, now needs support from the fringe party to secure that majority. But WPS leaders said before and after their campaign run that they would not join a government involving John Swinney. Other political forces in the regional parliament are openly anti-independence.” - Radical Worker’s Party wants “ensemble cast” to head Scottish executive

Whilst a RISE/SNP pact was workable, they still needed a third party to join the band if they were going to form a government. With the Social Democrats already declaring opposition to any further referendum they had two options, the federalist Alternative or the hardcore separatists in the Worker’s Party. When the Harvie's team approached Clark, she was receptive to a second referendum, she demanded the SNP withdraw support for National at the Westminster level, and that Alternative MSPs be given seats in the Cabinet. This was a non-starter for Swinney, who had signed an agreement to support the Westminster Government for a full four year term, and didn’t want to be seen putting personal political interests ahead of national stability.

Richie Venton, the Workers Party spokesman had much simpler demands. An earlier demand for a multi-person premiership of Scotland was dropped out of fears this would lead to a conservative from the SNP taking the reins. Richie’s MSP didn’t seek Cabinet positions, instead they agreed to support a government headed up by Harvie if two demands were met. Firstly a referendum within the Parliamentary term and secondly that the role of Finance Minister be granted to a socialist, many within the Workers Party worried this all important role would be given to a moderate from the SNP, and Venton pledged only to support a government with a radical economic platform. In return for this the Worker's Party would provide confidence and supply to the coalition during key deals. With the Worker’s Party onboard Harvie now had 51 seats in the Scottish Parliament - enough to present his Cabinet and form a majority.

Unionist parties warned of a Government in the pocket of Tommy Sheridan

Over the weeks of negotiations the Scottish Parliament did the usual administrative duties in setting up a new legislature. Christine Grahame from RISE was elected as Presiding Officer, officers were assigned and staff were hired. It was rather like the first day of school. In a ceremony attended by the Queen herself Harvie was elected as President of the Scottish Government by 50 votes, (Rosemary Byrne from the WPS abstained in protest of Harvie helping to kicking Sheridan out of RISE back in the day). The historic moment was not lost on attendees, for the first time in 300 years Scotland had it’s own Parliament and devolved Government again. The alde song picked up from where it left off.

“Politicians in Scotland have reached an agreement to call a referendum by 2017. A basic agreement between the moderate SNP and more radical RISE will result in a coalition between the two. The price for support is the setting of a time limit on a self-determination referendum. RISE leader Patrick Harvie had promised to hold one by the end of the decade but the radical Worker's Party has forced him to commit to it by 2017. The agreement with the SNP and WPS will allow Harvie to form a new government shortly. Officials in Harvie's office declined to confirm or deny the deal with WPS. The move looks likely to increase confrontation with William Hague's Westminster government. Hague has said he would make sure that courts banned a unilateral referendum in advance.” - Scotland in push for 2017 independence vote, Giles Tremlett, The Guardian (2013)

Harvie Scottish Government 2013-

• President - Patrick Harvie (RISE)
• Vice-President - John Swinney (SNP)
• Minister of Governance and Institutional Relations - Dennis Canavan (RISE)
• Minister of Agriculture and the Environment - Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh (SNP)
• Minister of Home Affairs - Colin Fox (RISE)
• Minister of Justice - Andrew Fairlie (SNP)
• Minister of Economy and Knowledge - Maggie Chapman (RISE)
• Minister of Culture - Bruce Crawford (SNP)
• Minister of Enterprise and Employment - Alex Neil (RISE)
• Minister of Education - Richard Lochhead (SNP)
• Minister of Health - Tommy Sheppard (RISE)
• Minister of Territory and Sustainability - Fiona Hyslop (SNP)

Harvie would now have to face down William Hague

Considering the close number of MSPs, RISE and the SNP divided the Cabinet up equally, although RISE gained control of the all important Governance and Economy ministries. Dennis Canvan as Minister for Governance would also have a power job, his role would be working with the Westminster Government to negotiate and put in place an independence referendum by the end of the term. Maggie Chapman, a socialist and anti-cuts activist was put in place as Minister for the Economy, partly to placate the Workers Party, Chapman’s appointment was seen as a clear sign that the Harvie Government would not play by the old economic rule-book.

The moderates did get some success, Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh of the SNP’s more moderate wing got the powerful Agriculture super-ministry. This was one of the furthest devolved powers in the Scottish autonomy deal, giving Ahmed-Sheikh unparalleled control over everything from fisheries to energy. Considering the SNP’s strength generally came from more middle class and rural areas, the party also picked up the Territory ministry, responsible for relations with the Highlands and Islands. The Ministry of Justice was another important job for the SNP’s Andrew Fairlie, he would have to work to try and talk down remaining SNLA dissidents and help bring peace to a divided nation.

Harvie promised the equally divided Executive would be a “Cabinet of Equals” promising a “broad tent Government, that will show the world what Scotland can do”. In many ways it was a motley crew, millionaire businesswoman Ahmed-Sheikh sitting next to former SNLA fighter Colin Fox under the leadership of an avowed eco-socialist. Gaining Scotland it’s independence had brought this strange, diverse group of people together. Now it fell to Harvie to get on with his Vice-President and keep the ship together. If he could keep the momentum towards independence going his critics would be silenced - if not it could all fall apart very quickly.

“Scotland's bid for independence hit an obstacle after the Commission said any breakaway territory would not be part of the EU. "If a member state territory decides to separate, it isn't a member of the EU," the Commission's Margrethe Vestager, said at a conference in Edinburgh. British Prime William Hague has rejected proposals for a Scottish popular vote, noting that only London can call for a referendum. The region has pledged to hold a referendum by the end of the Parliamentary term in 2017. In an NYT op-ed last week, Scottish president Patrick Harvie described Scotland as a strong EU partner. He said the region is bound to the UK through history and close family ties, but wants to have more control over its own economy. He noted that Scotland had suffered more cuts to public expenditure per capita on average than other regions.” - Commission Says Scotland must leave EU if it leaves the UK, Nikolaj Nielsen, EU Observer (2013)

A Scotland outside both the UK and EU would be incredibly isolated

 

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Since being dismissed for refusing to comply with military reforms, colonel Cleverly had been quietly building a new force on the right

“Rebels from Britain's ruling National Party launched a new political party on Thursday. They hope to tap into public discontent over sky-high unemployment and surging separatism. Leaders of the new party, "The Centrists" accuse Prime Minister William Hague of being too soft on separatism and breaking promises. “Millions of Brits feel abandoned by the political system. It is infested with corruption scandals and at the beck and call of private interests,” Neil Hamilton, a former National MEP, told reporters. An opinion poll last weekend showed that National has lost its lead to the SDP in the wake of austerity measures and Hague’s plan to restrict abortion. It is the second time the SDP have inched ahead since they lost a general election in late 2012. Voters have increasingly turned to smaller parties such as the centrist Reform Party.” - British ruling party rebels launch new conservative party, Elisabeth O’Leary, Reuters (2013)

Britain's right was having a strange time, you would have thought they’d be happy with the National back in Downing Street. But many on the hard-line edge of British politics had been severely disappointed with William Hague. Hague had failed to roll-back abortion rights, or return the army into a position of prominence. Instead he had kowtowed to the dreaded EU in a bailout deal, made cuts to the public realm and even given the unruly Scots their own Parliament. Mountbatten would be rolling in his grave. Godfrey Bloom’s New Nationalist Party had long been the face of Britain's radical right, but they had failed to gain any representation at a national level and had generally been a huge embarrassment.

The right had seen some victories, the ultra-loyalist Scottish Democratic Alliance had managed to win a seat in the Scottish Parliament and James Cleverly’s Association for National Defence campaign group of veterans had seen huge success on social media, with over a million likes on Facebook. The right had won sporadic victories but had no united front to coordinate it’s political campaigns. Maybe it was the Scottish Parliament results that put a fire in the belly of Britain's Mountbattenites, or maybe it was the timidness of Hague’s administration, it might even have been the failure of the abortion bill. Either way a new political movement was stirring on the National Party’s flank.

Godfrey Bloom would be publicly dropped as the leader of Britain's far-right

At a press conference in central London a group of leading figures on the right, including the AND’s James Cleverly, SDA’s Jim Dowson, NNP’s Godfrey Bloom, as well as National Party MEPs Neil Hamilton and Anne Widdecombe took to the stage. They were joined by Rod Thomas, the ultra-conservative Bishop of Maidstone and multi-millionaire business mogul Jeremy Hosking. In a series of speeches headlined by Cleverly the group announced they would be launching a brand new party “The Centrists”, led by Cleverly himself. The party promised to be a party of the British Union first and foremost, railing against regional separatism. Cleverly also announced it would be a party for “true Conservatives” who would “uphold the legacy of our nation’s great men”. Some of the more eye-catching policies The Centrists proposed included the scrapping of Scotland’s autonomy deal and an end to provincial parliaments.

“For years, Britain had avoided the rise of far-right populists, dodging a trend sweeping other parts of Europe. But recently, that all changed. In December, the far-right party "The Centrists" launched. It is the first time a far-right party has entered mainstream British politics since the end of its decades-long dictatorship. Right-wing populist parties are rising, and centre-left ones are faltering, in other parts of Europe and beyond. And some aspects of The Centrist's agenda are reminiscent of the other movements, while others are local. It wants to deport undocumented migrants, limit regional autonomy and repeal domestic violence laws. It has received support from French nationalist Marine Le Pen.” - In Britain, Far-Right Populists Rise On Anti-Separatist Sentiment, NPR News Bulletin (2013)

With a generation donation from Hosking of 3 million euros, The Centrists were already in a much better financial situation than many of their competitors. Their official launch was attended by thousands of people, with the party claiming that dozens of regional legislators had already defected to The Centrists’ cause. The split was a disaster for National, whilst none of their big hitters had crossed the floor yet, the split whipped out their polling lead over the Social Democrats overnight. The Centrist’s rise, alongside the surge in support for RISE was further proof that the British people were turning against the two mainstream parties, looking for a better deal.

Civil Assistance Paramilitaries provided "security" at the launch rally

These new smaller parties weren’t cropping from nowhere, the EU elections were just a few months away, and these were the best way for smaller parties to breakthrough onto the national stage as they were fought in a UK-wide constituency. Both National and the Social Democrats feared the Centrist's wouldn’t be the first party split, as discontent backbenchers looked towards the exit as a way of making their voices heard. The OutRage protests had already shown political action outside the two big parties could see success. National in particular had a lot to fear from a groundswell of small parties, the Harrison corruption trial was still ongoing and austerity was far from popular. National had always relied on a strongman to hold them together, was Hague strong enough?

At Centrist rallies following the party’s launch thousands would turn out to the “Road Trip for Britain”. Some of the people attending the rallies were expected such as Union for British Policing (UBP) Secretary-General Henry Bolton, as well as various retired military officers including former Defence Secretary Charles Gunthrie who told journalists he was “just curious” when asked why he was at a Centrist rally. Whilst priests, soldiers and policemen were all expected at right-wing events, the rallies saw a surprisingly high turnout among young people. With youth unemployment at nearly 50% Britain's youth were disenchanted with the political establishment more than anyone, whilst many would turn to the OutRage movement, for other’s the siren call of Mountbattenism was too hard to resist.

“When Daisy Gray turned up in Berlin a year ago and walked into her first German class, she was amazed to find almost all her classmates were fellow Brits. "They were all engineers, apart from an architect and myself," says the art historian. "All here for the same reason – to work." Gray, 36, has begun a job as an art history guide at one of Berlin's top tourist sites, the Pergamon Museum. Gray ends a lengthy period of joblessness that started when she was made redundant from her job as a curator at a gallery in London in December 2011. The Belfast native is one of the estimated 100,000 young Europeans who are now arriving in Germany every year since the economic crisis began. The Greek rate of youth unemployment now stands at more than 60%, Britain's is nearly 50%, Spain, Italy and Portugal are at 40%. Germany, with its shortage of skilled workers, has become a magnet for this section of European society. From Lisbon to London the Goethe Institute, has reported a record uptake in its language classes. It is scrambling to find teachers to meet the demand.” - Young Brits flock to Germany to escape economic misery back home, Ashifa Kassam, Toronto Star (2013)

Sky-high unemployment continued to push voters away from the centre

 

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The Centrists are a conservative political party in the UK. Founded in 2013, it is led by party president James Cleverly and secretary general Neil Hamilton. The Centrists are identified as right-wing to far-right by academics and mainstream journalists. Fundraising for the Centrists by Anglican fundamentalists began in 2012. Hundreds of wealthy donors, including Jeremy Hosking, provided funds to Cleverly, with the group gathering millions of euros.

The Centrists were launched at a press conference in London on 17 December 2013 as a split from the National Party. This schism was interpreted as an offshoot of "neoconservative" National Party members. The party platform sought to rewrite the constitution to abolish regional autonomy. Several of their promoters had been members of the hardline Convergence faction of National.

 

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Britain's two parties had struggled since the financial crisis

“Since the Global Financial Crisis hit Britain in 2008, the number of new political parties has exploded. Between 2009 and 2010, The Home Office reports that 416 new political parties were registered. This doubled in the period of mobilisation that occurred between 2011 and 2012, with 694 new parties created. Some of the parties, such as The People's Party emerged from the ‘street’ , the assemblies and occupations. Others, such as the Pirate Party emerged from the movement against Internet censorship. There are amalgamations of existing parties, such as the Alliance for Unity in Scotland. As well as many localist parties. At one level, these developments should be welcomed by those who see a range of parties as essential to representative democracy. On the other hand, there are puzzles to be explained as well.” - Reinventing the political party in Transition Britain, Lukas Audickas, House of Commons Library (2015)

The hot new trend in British politics was new political parties, from Unity to the Centrists everyone and their nan seemed to be setting up a new political organisation. In the camps of the OutRage movement, a single question had been raging for a long time, what to do about the ballots. There were three schools of thought within the movement: the anarchist tendency, made up of folks like Russell Brand, supported keeping out of electoral politics, focusing on being a purely ground movement and urging their supporters to spoil their ballots. Tendency number two were the people who wanted a closer relationship with the Alternative and the Communist Party, such as Leeds based solicitor Richard Burgon. The final tendency were the populists who wanted to create a political movement of their own.

For a long time it seemed the OutRage protests would be absorbed into the Alternative, OutRage activists had helped in writing the Alternative’s 2012 manifesto, and they enjoyed a close relationship with Coordinator Michael Meacher. But tensions had increasingly grown between the Alternative and the young protesters. Leading figures in the Alternative, especially those in the Communist Party were becoming resentful that OutRage figures had such power in Alternative without going through “the proper channels”. Despite Meacher’s protests, the Alternative’s Executive Committee voted to present the OutRage movement an ultimatum. Either formally affiliate to the Alternative, or lose their influence.

Meacher had been desperate to absorb OutRage into the Alternative

The OutRage Movement had tried to ride two horses for too long, enjoying a cosy relationship with the Alternative whilst fighting an extra-parliamentary battle. Now the group had to make a decision. At a series of people’s assemblies up and down the country, the various local OutRage groups debated the merits of affiliation. After several months of back and forth a decision was made. OutRage would not be absorbed into the Alternative, citing the authoritarian and top-down nature of the Alternative's structure, as well as it’s previous support for the Alan Johnson Government and the austerity it had inflicted. Instead the movement would found it’s own political party to contest the 2014 European Elections.

“A group of intellectuals, together with OutRage activists have launched the manifesto Real Change. In the manifesto they emphasise the need for an alternative to the current one situation of economic and political crisis in Britain. They call for 'the recovery of popular sovereignty' in view of the next elections to the European Parliament, which will be held in May. Among the signatories are Steve Keen, professor of Politics at Kingston University, actor Sean Bean and professor Avi Shlaim from Oxford. "We are facing the greatest loss of credibility of the regime born with the Cardiff Accords," they say in the text. Faced with this situation, they highlight that "a popular will not to sacrifice more rights on the altar of markets. It is essential to forge keys to open the doors that today want to close us."” - Intellectuals and OutRagers call to "regain popular sovereignty" in new manifesto, Helen Lewis, The New Statesman (2014)

Feeding in from the various citizens assemblies the National Coordinating Group for OutRage would publish a manifesto, named “Real Change”. In the manifesto the OutRage activists called for more direct democracy through the use of referenda and citizens assemblies. They also called for Britain to pull out of the Troika bailout with an end to austerity and public sector cuts. Above all the manifesto called for a “Britain from below, not from above - where the people get the final say”. The new movement promised to break the mould of traditional British politics. Within minutes of the manifesto’s launch online over 70,000 people had signed up for the new initiative, named “The People’s Party”. The website crashed soon after.

The OutRage movement would need to move from the streets to the ballot box

The leader of this new movement would also be unlikely, named as Bell Ribeiro-Addy. Ribeiro-Addy had been head of the National Union of Students during the 2009 coup attempt, and thus had been one of the major leaders of anti-coup action in the streets. Since then Ribeiro-Addy had gone on to lead various youth anti-racism and anti-austerity movements, becoming a popular TV pundit representing Britain's left. This all culminated in her being elected to the National Coordinating Group for the OutRage Movement. At just 28 Rebeiro-Addy was by far the youngest leader of a British political party, and the only black woman to lead a major political organisation.

At an event in Islington the People’s Party was officially launched. Ribeiro-Addy was joined by a star-studded cast from Britain's populist left. This included people like Mark Thomas, a popular left-wing comedian, fellow TV pundit Owen Jones, army whistle-blower Clive Lewis, University of Oxford Professor Caroline Lucas, and singer-songwriter Charlotte Church. The party would also get its first parliamentary representation when Alternative MP Brian Eno defected to the People’s Party. Eno condemned the top-down organisation of the Alternative, calling on other Alternative MPs to come to “the right side of the barricades”. Thousands would pour in to watch the new party form.

Despite the public falling out with the Alternative, Ribeiro-Addy called on other anti-austerity parties to join the People’s Party in forming a united front for the European Elections. Ribeiro-Addy pledged to have a “hand outstretched to all”. The People’s Party leadership also called on other protest groups and civil society elements to join in the new party. The People’s Party especially hoped to coax some of the larger unions away from the SDP and Alternative. Not everyone was happy with this change OutRage coordinator for West Yorkshire Richard Burgon condemned the formation of a rival party, confirming he would stay with the Alternative, accusing Ribeiro-Addy of splitting the left. The new force of left wing politics had arrived, and in true socialist fashion, it launched with a split.

“Bell Ribeiro-Addy has been named as the General Secretary of the People's Party. The television analyst has called for a joint list with the Socialist Alternative and RISE Party. That step has certain conditions, according to Ribeiro-Addy: "That it has broad popular support and that it be a call for unity." Members of the movement intend to appeal to the SA for a coalition before or after the May election. SA sources have said this new party will not influence their political agenda, which is now focused on the election for the European Parliament. "If you ask me if I want to convince the Alternative to join with us, I tell you: obviously. Sooner or later, we have to meet, always from the premise of citizen participation," Ribeiro-Addy said.” - Bell Ribeiro-Addy named as People’s Party Leader, Associated Press (2014)

Ribeiro-Addy now had to follow up on her lofty ambitions for the People's Party

 

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The People's Party is a left-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. Part of the anti-austerity movement, it was founded in February 2014 by Bell Ribeiro-Addy in the aftermath of the OutRage protests. It is on the left wing of the political spectrum.

The People's Party is a democratic socialist party which holds anti-austerity views. It takes a soft Eurosceptic stance, and promotes direct democracy, federalism and patriotism.

In January 2014, it released the manifesto Real Change which was signed by 42 leading academics, including Steve Keen and Avi Shalim.

Real Change stated that it was necessary to create a party list for the 2014 EU elections, with the goal of opposing the dominant austerity policies of the EU. On 14 January, Bell Ribeiro-Addy, an anti-racism activist and TV presenter, was announced as head the movement. The movement was organised by the National Coordinating Group of the OutRage movement which had written Real Change

 

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Solider returned to Britain's street, but for once it wasn't a coup

“Huge waves have battered the southern and western coasts of the UK, as forecasters warn exposed areas could see a fresh round of flooding. Waves of up to 27ft (8m) were recorded off Land's End, Cornwall. The environment secretary said eight people had died and 2,000 homes had been flooded in England due to storms and flooding. There are currently three severe flood warnings in place in England and travel by road and rail is being hit. The province of Gloucestershire has borne the brunt of the latest severe weather, with flooding leaving some villages cut off. The Environment Agency has warned communities along the Thames to "remain prepared" for more flooding on Monday and the rest of the week.” - Giant waves hit amid fresh flooding fears, BBC News Buletin (2014)

Internal observers had begun to describe Downing Street as “the cursed office”. Alan Johnson had famously had all manner of miseries inflicted on him, from assassination attempts to economic crashes. William Hague now seemed to inherit a similar curse, with a party split and austerity increasingly unpopular, Hague was facing enemies from the inside and out. It was at this point even god decided to have a pop at the beleaguered Prime Minister. Massive floods hit the United Kingdom destroying 600 houses, costing the government over a billion euros in damages and emergency response - a billion euros the Government didn’t have.

Some in the Anglican community saw the flooding as biblical retribution for Hague’s failure to roll back Johnson’s civil liberties legislation. Writing in the Spectator Archbishop of Canterbury Michael Nazir-Ali wrote “a Christian nation that abandons its faith will be beset by natural disasters such as storms, disease, pestilence and war.” Whilst these statements were roundly mocked in the liberal press, Nazir-Ali still had a great deal of sway in the English shires Hague would have hold onto from the Centrists if he wanted to keep his premiership. The floods had hit rural communities, mostly National strongholds the hardest, Hague needed a strong response to prove he was the man for the job.

The Environment Department - responsible for flood defences - had been drastically cut

The hardest hit province was Gloucestershire where Provincial President Jonathan Hill announced a state of emergency as the province reported its highest rainfall since records began in 1910. Several railway lines in Gloucestershire were flooded, bringing public transport to a halt, leaving the South West cut-off from the rest of the country, network rail predicted the damage to Gloucestershire's railways could take up to six months to fix. Even more worryingly power lines were brought down by the floods, leading to tens of thousands of homes without power and rolling blackouts in Bristol. In some parts of the city this led to sporadic rioting and looting as emergency services struggled to respond.

“As darkness fell, residents of flooded areas in Berkshire formed community groups to watch over their homes in the absence of the police. "We've seen a few suspicious looking vans without number plates prowling around in the last couple of days," said Richard Levett. "And they want to build the new runway here?" he added, pointing to a two-storey house that he said had sold some months ago, but which now had small brown waves lapping at the front door. Next door, an elderly couple were packing their belongings into a car as they headed off to spend the night in a hotel. "It's crazy. People have been warning Heathrow's operators that this area was at risk of flooding like this." As other locals gathered at corners of the estate, there was frustration at the authorities for not paying attention to flooding in the area.” - UK flood victims on alert as fears of looting and yet more water intensify, Ben Quinn, The Guardian (2014)

Around the Cabinet table debates would rage on whether to send the troops in. Whilst in a normal country, sending in soldiers to help with crisis management was fairly typical, in the UK it came with all sorts of political connotations, especially in regards to the Bristol riots, where some worried soldiers would only inflame tension. Environment Secretary Ed Davey, who had been hammered in the press for his slow response to the flooding, pleaded with the Prime Minister not to send troops in, instead leaving the flood response to civilian crisis managers. After a series of back and forth the Cabinet agreed the Gloucestershire Provincial Government would be granted a further 80 million euros to combat the flood, and that 3,000 troops would be dispatched to the region to help with flood prevention only, not public order duties.

National had only accepted the facts of climate change fairly recently

In a personal visit to Gloucestershire, Hague would tell residents “money is no object” as he oversaw the deployment of troops and the roll-out of extra funds. Over a thousand people had to be evacuated from Gloucestershire and surrounding provinces. Agriculture Secretary Diane James also released over 10 million euros to South West farmers, to allow it’s all-important agriculture industry to recover. Whilst it had taken a great deal of time for the Government to act, it slowly began to dispatch further resources to the South Western provinces, although once again the National Party’s polling had taken a great hit from the crisis. Focus groups describe Hague as “slow”, “dithering” and “weak” in his reaction to the floods.

Despite this, opposition leader David Miliband failed to make much political stock of the floods. Miliband was heckled in a visit to Windsor and his criticisms of the Government’s cuts to the environment agency and natural disaster relief rang hollow when it was the Johnson administration that had begun these cuts to begin with. Miliband’s failure to land a strong blow against National as the water rose around them further infuriated the Social Democrat’s backbenchers. Miliband’s approval ratings had been consistently falling since he was elected SDP leader. As both National and SDP backbenches buzzed with talk of leadership challenges, both major parties seemed unable to cope with the task at hand.

“This morning’s YouGov/Sun daily polling results are here. Topline figures are NAT 29%, SDP 23%, SA 11%, REF 10%, SNP 3%, RISE 2%. There are two noteworthy things in the regular trackers. One, the gap between the people blaming the government for the cuts (29%) and the people blaming the SDP (33%) is the lowest YouGov have had so far. Two, people appear to be getting less worried, the 63% of people who say they worry about having enough money is the lowest they’ve shown since the election. Both are presumably a sign of economic optimism continuing to creep upwards. Meanwhile the Populus poll yesterday had figures of NAT 30%, SDP 20%, SA 15%, REF 12% SNP 4%, RISE 2%.” - UK Polling Report (2014)

Flooding and corruption took it's toll on Hague's approval rating

 

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The Alternative hoped to make a breakthrough at the EU election, but now they had to compete with the People's Party

“The 2014 EP election in the UK took place in the context of a profound economic depression as a result of the financial crisis and housing bubble. After six years, the indicators of economic growth were non-existent. Moreover, since 2011, a large number of budget cuts in social spending had taken place as a ‘shock therapy’ to reduce the public deficits. This series of events caused unprecedented protest mobilisations in the streets. The election was expected to generate exceptional outcomes. Neither the SDP nor National was able to retrieve the situation. The combination of broken election promises and corruption brought them to unprecedented levels of disapproval. This would lead to mass mobilisation of voters from the left.” - The 2014 European Election in the UK, David Cutts (2015)

With floods and austerity in the background, the EU election was looking very choppy for both National and the Social Democrats. Polls showed both major parties on less than 60% of the vote for the first time in Britain's democratic history, down from over 80% of the vote at the 2009 elections. The Alternative, Reform and Scottish Separatist parties were all expected to do well from the European Parliament elections. Unemployment continued to rise despite austerity and allegations of corruption dogged both parties, especially National who remained under active investigation from the authorities for fiddling with expenses and using donations to maintain a slush fund.

By now William Hague had hoped to get unemployment and the deficit under control, so he could present to a sceptical public the benefits of his austerity programme. Instead, despite painful reductions in public spending the national unemployment metric had hardly moved, with youth unemployment even going up. Whilst Hague could still blame the previous Johnson administration for the difficult economic situation he had inherited, the public’s patience with National was wearing thinner and thinner. Hague also had to deal with accusations he was too close to Angela Merkel, an EPP colleague and much hated figure among the British public. Merkel was seen as the face of the Troika and Hague’s vocal support for the bailout deal seemed unpatriotic to left and right. Hague had been particularly humiliated after threatening to vote against Merkel’s preferred EPP Spitzenkandidaten -Michel Barnier - describing him as a “dangerous federalist”. This was before publicly climbing down and giving Barnier his support after pressure from other EPP leaders.

Hague had also come under criticism for throwing overboard National’s eurosceptic caucus leader Francis Maude, instead replacing him with a much more europhile leader in Nicky Morgan MEP. Maude had roundly irritated EPP colleagues in Brussels and had even called on National to leave the EPP group and found a new centre-right bloc. Whilst Hague was a soft-eurosceptic himself and would traditionally be open to that kind of thing, he couldn’t afford to further alienate European partners, especially Merkel, whilst Britain was still in the midst of an economic bailout from the EU. Morgan’s accession had caused disquiet on National benches in Westminster and Brussels, further building tension on Hague.

Cruddas and Miliband would fall out over the election campaign

The Social Democrats hoped to capitalise on this by promoting Jon Cruddas as their lead candidate, seen as on the left of the party and with a soft-eurosceptic edge, leading Social Democrats hoped Cruddas could capitalise on anti-European sentiment sweeping through the nation. At the campaign launch Cruddas promised a vote for the SDP would be a “vote for change”, unlike a vote for National which would be a “vote for submission”. However, Cruddas’ appointment had greatly upset several other members of the SDP’s MEP caucus, most of them having more pro-European views than Cruddas, some even being proud federalists. As well as this, the SDP’s attack on the Troika rang hollow as they had been the ones to originally negotiate Britain's bailout deal

“The European discourse of the Social Democratic Party remains obscure. Despite the fact that bad economic conditions are usually good news for an opposition, the SDP is likely to suffer large losses. The SDP is generally seen as pro-integration, despite the fact that its supporters have grown more Eurosceptic. The SDP campaign has tried to solve this contradiction by promoting soft-eurosceptic Jon Cruddas to leadership, who argues the EU has been governed by “the right” during the crisis. But it is difficult to sell this message when the president of the Eurogroup and vice-president of the Commission are Social Democrats. This comes at the same time as leader David Miliband has attempted to stress the importance of keeping to EU economic policy commitments.” - The SDP Under Threat, Lecture by Richard Johnson, London School of Economics

For the first time ever the BBC arranged a direct debate between the lead candidates of both main parties, Morgan and Cruddas. Ironically the parties had seemingly reversed from 2009, with National playing the defenders of the bailout and the Social Democrats criticising a cosy relation with Brussels, thoroughly confusing both parties’ traditional supporters. To the outrage of many, third parties locked out the debate, including the Alternative who were polling well into the double digits. Unfortunately for the main parties, neither Morgan nor Cruddas made a good impression on the electorate, with 61% of respondents in a BBC snap poll saying neither MEP had won.

Ribeiro-Addy known colloquially as just 'Bell' had the highest approval rating of the UK-wide party leaders

As third parties grew the main story of the election was the People’s Party, who was less than a hundred days old. Leader Bell Rebiero-Addy crossed the country and appeared on television constantly as part of a “People’s Blitz”. The People’s Party raised tens of thousands in crowdfunding, allowing them to pay the hefty 40,000 euro deposit required to run a full slate of candidates in the European elections. People’s Party candidates included well known celebrities such as comedian Mark Thomas and even world-famous actors like Sean Bean would make an appearance towards the bottom of the list. One of the most eye-catching proposals was for People’s MEPs only to claim a 23,000 euro salary, a quarter of their entitlement. In the face of austerity, corruption scandals and increasingly euroscepticism, the People’s Party found fertile terrain for their populist brand of politics, despite polling in single digits.

With this theme of populist discontent the election campaign drew to a close. National, already wounded before the campaign had only taken a further battering, as eurosceptics deserted the party and europhiles gave their support to the Reform Party or Unity. Seeing a chance to give Hague and his cuts a kicking, few publicly gave their support and morale was low in the party. The SDP too had a bad election, the appointment of Cruddas had blown up in Miliband’s face as eurosceptics moved to the radical left and the SDP’s intelligentsia base were pushed away by Cruddas’ euroscepticism. As polls closed the press was ready for a bloodbath, Huffington Post editor Mehdi Hasan described the election as “the end of the two-party system as we know it”.

“The opinion polls all agree: Britain's two-party system is suffering from a kind of burnout that has not been seen in recent years. And the main beneficiaries of the steady decline in voter support for the SDP and National are the leftist SA and the centrist Reform Party. SA - which is a veteran association of communists and republicans typically garners around 10% of the vote. Reform - a newcomer to the political scene, which has been gaining traction on a progressive, liberal program. Both facing a turning point that will test their organisations and their internal structures. A recent simulation of EU election results conducted by YouGov showed the SA and Reform obtaining 16 percent and 11 percent of the vote.” - Could the EU elections spell the end of the two-party system?, BBC News Bulletin (2014)

No one saw the People's Party coming

 

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Hague had lost, but Miliband lost more​

“Britain’s two main parties obtained their worst results in democratic history at the European elections on Sunday. Despite the fact that National lost 3.7 million votes, its leaders expressed satisfaction at having beaten the SDP, whose results are the worst on record. In fact, Hague can boast to be the only leader of a large European country, together with Germany’s Angela Merkel, to come out the winner of these elections. “The only goal was to win, and we managed that,” said high-placed National sources. Campaign Coordinator Sajid Javid said the party was “satisfied,” without mentioning the loss of votes. Meanwhile, the SDP lead candidate for the elections, Jon Cruddas admitted that theirs has been “a bad result”. At stake could be the political future of party leader David Miliband.” - Two-party system dealt major blow in EU elections, BBC News Bulletin (2014)

William Hague had some good news and bad news. The bad news was he lost almost a third of his MEPs in an unprecedented swing against the National Party. The good news was the Social Democrats got hit just as hard, allowing him to declare a perverse victory in the European elections. Hague’s allies tried to spin this as a good result for the Prime Minister, press secretary Tim Montgomerie pointed out Britain was one of the only countries where the governing party won the European elections, but despite this a 14 point swing against could not be chalked up as a win. All in all the big two lost over 7 million votes between them, scattering to third parties or just blinding apathy.

Whilst EU elections had long been considered “second order” elections in other EU countries like France - meaning voters felt more free to cast protest votes - Britain had always treated the EU elections with reverence. The overwhelmingly Europhilic nature of the British public, coupled with the novelty of EU membership meant Brits tended to take the EU polls more “seriously” than other member states, treating them like a general election and electing centrist, mainstream MEPs. These election results were a sign this seriousness had ended and the European Parliament became another second order election for the British public to vent their frustrations in. Whilst this might have provided some solace to Hague and Miliband, as voters would likely still return to the fold for a general election, it did expose the cynicism and rage at the heart of British politics. In short, Britain’s EU “honeymoon” was over.

The radical left for the first time was a tangible threat to the centre ​

The winners of the poll were the various smaller parties, the Alternative, Reform, left-separatists, Unity, and even the Centrists all gained seats, some for the first time. But the big story of the night was the People’s Party. Within a hundred days the People’s Party had gone from literally not existing to touching distance of becoming Britain’s third largest party, leapfrogging the SNP and even Reform in the pecking order. At a victory rally Ribeiro-Addy declared Britain had “thrown out the duopoly”. With 15 MEPs between the two radical parties, British MEPs made up nearly a third of the “United Left” grouping of the European Parliament, overtaking the German Die Linke grouping. Michael Meacher, who also had a good night, alluded to an alliance with the People’s Party, calling for “grand coalition of left forces” in a press conference, combining the two would hold the votes of nearly 20% of the British electorate, a powerful force.

“Unlike voters in many European countries, Brits rejected parties that favour cutting ties with the EU. But they gave strong support to anti-austerity leftist parties and separatists in Scotland. The Socialist Alternative, a coalition that includes Communists, added six seats for a total of eight. PEOPLE'S, a new party that adopted the rhetoric of the "OutRage" movement that took over British square three years ago, secured seven seats. Bell Ribeiro-Addy, the People's Party leader, said after the vote: "We don't want to be a colony of Germany or the Troika". Scottish voters turned out in strong numbers to make the separatist RISE party, the region's top party. RISE got 24% of the vote, up from 9% in 2009. RISE was part of a separatist coalition that won three European Parliament seats nationwide.” - British Major Parties Lose Ground to Upstart Parties, Ilan Brat, Wall Street Journal (2014)

Another surprise was in Scotland, where turnout had fallen on average across the country, in Scotland it had jumped up by over 10%. This mostly benefited RISE, who’s "Free Democrats" list of left separatists - including Forward Wales and Sinn Fein - tripled it’s representation from one MEP to three. Scottish President Patrick Harvie had called for Scots to “send a signal” to Brussels of their pro-European instincts. Separatist parties overwhelmingly won the European elections in Scotland, the Harvie Government remained in a popular honeymoon phase, and momentum towards an independence referendum seemed unstoppable. For Scotland’s nationalist parties, the European elections were just another tool in the box pushing them ever closer towards independence.

The RISE/SNP Government had been vindicated by EU elections

Britain’s EU elections were also notable, that whilst other countries like France, Italy and the Netherlands moved to the right in their Parliamentary elections, Britain’s populist wave came from the left. The Centrists, despite the hype, only won one seat for their leader James Cleverly - a net loss considering two National MEPs had defected before the election. The People’s Party and Alternative on the other hand were riding an all time high. Maybe it was the memory of dictatorship, or the relatively low levels of immigration, but Britain had somehow resisted the Le Pen wave sweeping the continent. But this also meant the People’s Party had a target on it’s back, Reform Party leader Sarah Brown in one interview declared that the People’s Party "pursued the same kind of politics as Marie Le Pen". Bell Riberio-Addy would no longer be treated as a harmless curiosity by the press, the movement had to prepare for attacks.

The biggest scalp of the European Parliament elections would be David Miliband. Since losing the 2012 elections, he had failed to gain much cut-through as leader of the opposition, under his tenure the SDP had fallen to fourth in the Scottish Parliament elections and failed to overtake in polls even as National faced scandal after scandal. Miliband couldn’t survive the European elections, an unmitigated disaster for the party. Even in party strongholds like Brighton, Bristol and Sheffield the party’s vote share had collapsed, all three cities won by the People’s Party. In a press conference Miliband declared he would be taking “full responsibility” for the landslide defeat, telling reporters the SDP needed a leader who could “regain Britain’s trust”. After just two years David Miliband would be leaving the stage.

“The EU elections have claimed a prominent victim, with the leader of Britain's centre-left announcing he will resign. David Miliband, who has led the SDP since February 2012, said he would take “political responsibility for the bad results”. The SDP returned just 20 MEPs to the Parliament, 11 less than it had in 2009. It lost the election to the centre-right National Party of William Hague, Britain’s prime minister, which won 23 seats. The SDP suffered more than its rival from the rise of anti-establishment parties in these elections. One such party, the left-wing People's Party, which was created at the start of 2014, won seven seats. Meanwhile, Reform, founded in 2007, won 5 seats, up from one in 2009. The opposition leader said that he would remain in the role of secretary general of the party "until it is decided who will replace me". - British Social Democrats leader resigns, Nicholas Hirst, Politico (2014)

There was no obvious successor to Miliband

 

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UK European Parliament Delegation 2014-2019

• National Party - 23
• Social Democratic Party - 20
• Socialist Alternative - 8
• People’s Party - 7
• Reform Party - 5
• European Free Alliance - 4
• Alliance of Free Democrats - 3
• Unity - 2
• Ecology Party - 1
• The Centrists - 1

 

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Miliband had been nicknamed "brains" by Alan Johnson

“After eight years as an MP, David Miliband, announced on Thursday that he would be leaving politics and starting as a university lecturer. Miliband had already announced that he would be stepping down as party leader, after poor results in the recent European polls. He will leave his seat in September, and then shortly begin teaching political science at Oxford. “I hope that you miss me as much as I will miss you,” Miliband joked with journalists in Parliament on Thursday, smiling. There were tears in the veteran politician’s eyes when his fellow MPs gave him a standing ovation in the Commons. “We say farewell to David Miliband with great sadness,” said Speaker Vince Cable. “He will always be remembered as a great parliamentary figure.” - An emotional farewell for opposition leader David Miliband, BBC News Bulletin (2014)

With David Miliband leaving the field, the Social Democrats were pretty headless, having been decimated left and right. All of Miliband’s expected successors had imploded one way or another, Alan Sugar had split off to form his own party, Yvette Cooper led the Scottish Social Democrats to disaster and Deputy Leader Rosie Boycott ruled herself out - intending to quit politics altogether. Other leading Shadow Cabinet members like Tim Farron, Douglas Alexander or Ed Balls lacked the gravitas or internal infrastructure to mount a credible challenge. There were only two real candidates, Foreign Secretary Polly Toynbee, who had the backing of the party’s liberal wing, and former runner-up Andy Burnham from the populist wing of the party.

Burnham in particular had been an interesting case, since his rambunctious leadership bid in 2012 where he railed against immigration and the European Central bank, he had pivoted to a more conciliatory position, serving loyally as Culture Secretary, moving his interventions towards traditional SDP issues of health and social care. With the People’s Party’s populist wave sweeping through the nation, Burnham’s style of politics could be seen as vindicated, with the likely backing of major unions like Amicus and the AGO Burnham would certainly be the candidate to beat. Most notably in a poll of former SDP voters by YouGov, a plurality of respondents said Burnham would be the most likely candidate to drag them back to the party. With the Social Democrats facing oblivion, maybe it was time to think outside the box.

Toynbee was a rare survivor from the first 2005 Johnson Cabinet

Miliband and those around him were horrified at the idea of a Burnham leadership, throwing their support behind Toynbee. The liberal-dominated Federal Council made moves to lock the party’s old left out of power through reforms to the leadership voting system. Rather than the old conference votes that left power in the hands of union grandees, Miliband moved the SDP to an open primary system, meaning anyone who registered as a paid supporter of the Social Democrats could cast their vote. Miliband’s allies believed an influx of “ordinary voters” into the party would push the SDP closer to the centre. With over 250,000 members of the party, the leadership election would be won on the airwaves, rather than the picket line.

“The SDP’s time in opposition was marked by complex and informal deliberations. As a result, the party ended up developing new democratic innovations, such as party primaries and direct votes. In this respect, the SDP also resembles the Danish Alternativet or the Romanian Demos in their quest for new forms of party democracy. The electoral consequences of such internal debates and organisational changes are unclear, though. The organisational consequences have been far more clear. They contributed to strengthening the power of the party leader to the detriment of the party's middle-level elites. In this respect, the SDP followed the path of many cartel parties trying to react to weakening linkages with its electoral base.” - The SDP’s democratic innovations in turbulent times for the social democracy, Lecture by Emmanuelle Avril, New Sorbonne University Paris (2014)

As leading Social Democrats like Peter Mandelson, Sandi Toskvig and Clare Gerada stood aside for the leadership election, it began to look increasingly like a two horse race, several backbench MPs like Damian McBride, Anas Sarwar and James Bloodworth would all try to start up insurgent campaigns before crashing out spectacularly. The only third candidate to emerge was Sadiq Khan. Khan was known to most people as acting Prime Minister during the 2009 coup, as the most senior elected official not held at gunpoint. Khan had helped organise a provisional government and arguably played the most important role in stopping the coup. This had made Khan a hero to progressives across Britain. It was with this name recognition alone Khan could challenge the big two.

The Social Democrats went from civil resistance to establishment in less than a decade

The mood dominating the party was one of fear, falling into irrelevance was a very genuine threat, nervous MPs looked to the pasokification of other centre-left parties across Europe and began nervously updating their CVs. In speeches up and down the country Toynbee warned the SDP’s electoral base was vanishing fast, pointing to the stronghold city of Sheffield, which voted for the People's Party in the euro elections. Burnham hoped to counter low morale among activists with a campaign message of change, warning “the people consider us part of the system, rather than an instrument to change the system”. Khan meanwhile, by far the youngest of the three candidates, focused his campaign on a message of regeneration, arguing his lack of baggage made him the best candidate to bring the SDP back from the brink.

Lightning seemed to strike twice for Burnham, as polls showed him with a narrow lead over his two opponents. Burnham had adapted remarkably well to the new politics of open primary, appearing at picket lines and protests across the country. Burnham would snap up endorsements from civil society, ranging from LGBT rights groups to environmental organisations. At the start of his campaign Burnham had promised to fight the People’s Party “on their own turf” and his campaign looked remarkably similar to that of Bell Riberio-Addy. Burnham had watched his old employers from the Irish Labour Party go under, he was determined for it not to happen again - even if that meant fighting fire with fire.

As Burnham, Khan and Toynbee fought at rallies, in debates and over the airwaves, Britain’s few thousands committed Social Democrats got to have their say. Toynbee would get an eleventh-hour boost as former Prime Minister Alan Johnson would charge onto the field to endorse her campaign. Turnout was reported to be high, around 70% as hundreds of thousands of ballots were mailed into Callaghan House. The three camps would finally converge in Newcastle, for the Social Democrat's 2014 Federal Council. The party of Alan Johnson had it’s back to the wall, going from a natural party of government to the edge of disaster, now it would elect a miracle worker to dig the centre-left out of it’s international hole.

“After humiliating election defeats, Britain's Social Democrats choose a new leader this weekend. Voters turfed the SDP out of seven years in power in a crushing 2012 election defeat, punishing them for a recession and mushrooming debt. Even now, after two years of Prime Minister William Hague's government the SDP have failed to claw back popular support. Indeed, their position may be even more precarious. In elections for Britain's seats in the European Parliament, the Social Democrats attracted a paltry 25 percent of the vote, losing 11 of their 31 seats. It was the final blow for their secretary general, David Miliband, who announced his departure the next day.” - Britain's battered Social Democrats seek new leader, Associated Press (2014)

Leading the Social Democrats would be a thankless task

 

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Burnham had dropped much of his soft-eurosceptic rhetoric ​

"The biggest decision facing our country right now is over the bailout deal and our relationship with the European Union. I want to create an outward-looking, confident Britain. And yet we are becoming more divided, more inward-looking, more isolated from our European partners. I will hold Mr Hague to account, I won’t let the National Party put their own interests before the country. I am pro-European and, I am ready to provide the leadership that you need. I am a man on a mission, with a clear sense of what I want to achieve. I want to give the country a Social Democratic Party that people can relate to and believe in. That talks their language, that celebrates the spirit of enterprise, that helps all people to get on. A strong SDP voice that will help hold us together, maintain our place in Europe and guide the country through the uncertain times in which we now live." - Andy Burnham Victory Speech (2014)

With a clear mandate Andy Burnham was elected leader of the Social Democrats, 56% to 44% of the vote. In a few short years Burnham had gone from a relative unknown to leader of Britain’s largest opposition party. In a way his rise had been fairly extraordinary, with luck playing a large role in his rise. All possible major contenders for the SDP’s leadership, from Sugar to Cooper had all crashed and burned in one way or another. SDP MP Chris Bryant compared Burnham to a bicycle, saying to reporters “a bicycle can even win a Formula 1 race, because if all the cars crash the bicycle will still be there.” Burnham represented a literal - as well as a symbolic - changing of the guard. Burnham was the first “peacetime” SDP leader, who wasn’t directly involved in the British civil resistance movement, Burnham had spent his time honing his craft in Ireland, away from the bullets and batons of Junta Britain.

Burnham had been safe in Dublin as the tear gas flew

Burnham’s victory conference was conciliatory, stressing his pro-European views and promising to “take on board” the ideas expressed by Boycott and Khan. Burnham pledged to bring the SDP back in line with grassroots voters, whilst shying away “from populism and demagoguery,” in a veiled reference to the People’s Party. Burnham unleashed a barrage against William Hague, declaring his election “the beginning of the end for National''. Burnham to both try and attract back radical left voters whilst at the same time avoiding spooking the horses and being seen as taking a lurch to the left. Burnham would also have to deal with a staunchly liberal deputy in the form of Chuka Umunna, who had handily beaten left-wing Len McCluskey for the deputy leadership. Now Burnham had to appoint his Cabinet against the backdrop of a despondent and divided parliamentary caucus.

“Andy Burnham was accused of demoting prominent Johnsonites today after he appointed his Shadow Cabinet. Peter Mandelson and Clare Gerada lost their jobs in the SDP’s top team, moving to junior minister posts outside the Shadow Cabinet. Floella Benjamin, the shadow Public Administrations Secretary was sacked from the Cabinet entirely. Dave Prentis, the left-wing leader of the AGO union, has urged Mr Burnham to drop Johnsonites from his top team. SDP sources dismissed as “nonsense” National claims that Johnson allies had been purged, saying the party had “moved on”. One Burnham aide said: “He has not discussed the reshuffle with Dave Prentis.” SDP sources pointed to the promotion of two Johnsonite rising stars – Douglas Alexander and Rachel Reeves - as proof Burnham was “promoting on the basis of talent rather than faction.” - Andy Burnham accused of lurch to the left, Andrew Grice, The Independent (2014)

Burnham Shadow Cabinet 2014-

• Leader of the Opposition - Andy Burnham
• Deputy Leader of the Opposition - Chuka Umunna
• Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer - Douglas Alexander
• Shadow Foreign Secretary - Polly Toynbee
• Shadow Justice Secretary - Ed Balls
• Shadow Defence Secretary - Alistair Darling
• Shadow Home Secretary - Tim Farron
• Shadow Development Secretary - Rachel Reeves
• Shadow Education Secretary - Margaret Hodge
• Shadow Industry, Tourism and Trade Secretary - Sadiq Khan
• Shadow Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Secretary - Tristam Hunt
• Shadow Public Administrations Secretary - Frances O'Grady
• Shadow Culture Secretary - Keith Vaz
• Shadow Health Secretary - Lynne Featherstone
• Shadow Environment Secretary - Caitlin Moran
• Shadow Housing Secretary - Len McCluskey

Burnham had to reassure international observers - as well as sceptical backbenchers

The biggest promotion of Burnham’s reshuffle was Douglas Alexander, the Scottish Toynbee backer who saw an explosive rise from Shadow Culture Secretary to Shadow Chancellor, leapfrogging more senior ministers like Ed Balls and Alistair Darling. Other notable promotions included Tim Farron to Shadow Home Secretary, Reeves to Development and Margaret Hodge to Shadow Education. Burnham also kept his promise to include both his opponents in his Cabinet, leaving Toynbee in Shadow Foreign Affairs and elevating Sadiq Khan to the Industry brief. The losers tended to be older shadow cabinet members or those with considerable baggage, Peter Mandelosn, Sandi Toskvig and Clare Gerada were all sacked in a cross-factional purge of the codgers to make room for the party’s younger talent. Now almost all of the senior Shadow Cabinet jobs were held by people under 50.

Now Burnham’s top team had to begin the difficult climb back to power, the SDP faced disillusioned voters and divided the Parliamentary caucus. But the most important issue in the short term was money. The party was on the verge of bankruptcy after several of its largest donors left with Alan Sugar to form Unity, and many smaller unions had abandoned the SDP to affiliate to the People’s Party instead - although Burnham’s closeness with the unions had quickly stemmed that bleeding. But Burham’s biggest worries would be the MPs sitting behind him in Westminster, Burham was not the first choice of the party’s centrist establishment - with both Reform and Unity doing well many of his MPs were considering a better deal.

“Last month Andy Burnham was chosen to be the new leader of Britain's centre-left Social Democratic Party (SDP). The Sun called his appointment a “renewal” of the SDP. Burnham seems to have been chosen because he is too unknown to suffer from the revulsion most Brits feel towards the establishment. But as the SDP’s new leader, and without much of the baggage carried around by the older generation of leaders, Burnham has a choice facing him. If he expects his party out of its current crisis, he must recognise that the crisis is a conflict between Europe's bankers and Europe's workers. He must reengineer the SDP’s policies in favour of Britain’s very anxious working and middle classes. If not, he will watch as Europe’s extreme right takes control of the debate.” - Can Andy Burnham Save the SDP?, Michael Pettis, CEIP (2014)

One poll showed the SDP losing it's official opposition spot to the People's Party in a snap election

 

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Hi team,

I just realised I never uploaded this - whilst it's been thoroughly spoiled now I thought some might like to read anyway

Ciao,

Powerab
_____________

SDP Leadership: Runners and Riders

By Anoosh Chakelian

After David Miliband resigns following his party's EU election defeat, eyes turn to who may replace him as the next SDP leader.

A SDP source has told the New Statesman that Andy Burnham, Polly Toynbee and Len McCluskey are mulling a run for the party leadership.

Ed Balls is not ruling it out either.

Here are some more details about them and other names in the frame to replace David Miliband:

Douglas Alexander

The shadow health secretary has shown himself to be a consistent and capable performer making him an obvious front-runner. A close ally of Alan Johnson and a native Scot, he is likely to be a standard bearer for the moderate wing of the party. Might struggle to form a majority as leader though - his hatred for the Alternative and Scottish Separatists is well documented.

Ed Balls

The shadow home secretary has maintained a high-profile in challenging the Government over organised crime. Seen as a possible unity candidate between the liberal and populist wings of the party. Although his brash personal style might hinder any outreach attempts. Ed has moved in a more eurosceptic as shadow home secretary, calling for the Barnier Commission to "get a grip" on Europe's border crisis.

Rosie Boycott

Many may have looked to the SDP veteran and current deputy leader as a safe pair of hands, but she has announced she is to step down. Still, she might be tempted to reconsider if things get really dire. If she changed her mind Boycott would be in a strong position, warmed and well liked - she has the phone number of every SDP MP, Senator and MEP

Andy Burnham

A rising star and darling of the populists, Burnham has made no secret of wanting a second go after his narrow loss to David Miliband in 2012. Burnham is best placed to counter the People's Party's yellow wave. Although if he wants to have another crack he'll have to reassure the SDP's intellectual base of his pro-European credentials. If he runs he'll likely have the backing of Amicus and the AGO.

Yvette Cooper

A year ago Yvette would have been a shoe in. The plan was to spend a few years scrapping with the separatists before triumphantly returning to Westminster - but her disastrous campaign for the Scottish Parliament has severely diminished her odds. Yvette is now stuck in St Andrew's house without even a free Presidential question to her name,

Sadiq Khan

A folk hero to many, Khan had his 15 minutes of fame when he stood up to the 2009 coup and led military reform. His book on the 2009 coup "The Witness" has become an international smash hit. Would Khan be willing to make the jump from national treasure to the dirty world of front-line politics? Despite his reputation as a self-promoter, Khan has solid political instincts, he was the first SDP politician to sound the alarm bells on the People's Party.

Len McCluskey

Every few months "Red Len" threatens to defect to the Alternative but never does. A former union shop steward, McCluskey is the leader of the SDP's increasingly small number of old-school social democrats. McCluskey has called for a "popular front" with the Alternative and People's Party to fight the next election. Although allies have called on him to run for the more winnable deputy post instead.

Rachel Reeves

The quiet rise of Rachel Reeves has been something to behold. She has been assiduous in developing SDP fiscal rules as a junior treasury minister. She knows the SDP is seen as over-spenders and is determined to attack this perception. If the Social Democrats want to face down National's defect attacks head on, they could do worse than a former Bank of England economist.

Polly Toynbee

Polly Toynbee remains an influential figure on the right of the party and long may she do so. She has her fair share of detractors, but what she says matters in centrist circles. Alan Johnson has called on Toynbee to run calling her the party's "best hope". Still unlike Johnson Toynbee has few friends in the unions, an open primary is probably her best shot at the crown.

Chuka Umunna

He comes across as reasonable, and appears to be the sweet voice of Johnsonism, but he is developing an inner steel. However he is seen to be all things to all men with few enemies on the SDP benches - but also very few friends - If he is to cement his position as a potential leadership candidate he needs to develop some identifiable beliefs.

• New Statesman, 2014

 

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National was weak but benefited from a divided opposition

“National faces several stumbling blocks in renewing its support from British citizens. Unemployment remains high, and most of the new jobs created are precarious. Social inequality and child poverty have also skyrocketed. A wave of corruption scandals involving leading figures within the party, have also eroded National’s popularity. In Scotland, separatist sentiment has increased, led by the radicalisation of the regional government under Patrick Harvie. Again, inaction has characterised Hague’s response. Hague’s approval rating and the electoral prospects of his party are disturbing. Opinion polls show that the 52-year-old Prime Minister has the lowest approval rating among all the main party leaders. Pollsters also suggest that National's voters are wavering and it's electoral share may plunge around 15 percentage points.” - National are leading in polls but William Hague’s future is far from secure, Steven Erlanger, New York Times (2014)

William Hague was also feeling the pressure, he wasn’t far off following his old rival Miliband to the metaphorical guillotine. Despite a pyrrhic victory, the EU elections were still a disaster for Hague and his allies within the party, the church and the military were all losing patience - not to mention the general public’s barely contained rage. Maybe it was time to loosen slightly the two years of harsh austerity Hague had inflicted on the public realm. Like all politicians with their back against the wall, Hague decided it was time for a massive tax cut. Hague announced a massive 12.5% reduction in income tax across the board, with a further 5% cut in business rates.

Whilst the tax cuts were generally popular with Britain’s middle class, they did draw criticism from right and left. The People’s Party objected to the cuts as the tax rate was reduced equally for both the highest income bracket and the lowest, effectively saving tens of thousands of pounds for Britain’s very highest earners. The People’s Party argued the cut should only go to the lowest income bracket, whilst the remaining funds should be spent on a job guarantee to help tackle Britain’s record 26% unemployment rate. The fiscal conservatives on National’s own benches also raised concerns at the massive hole the cut blew in Britain's finances, just as the Treasury was starting to get a grip on Britain’s mounting debt.

Hague was seen as a reliable partner in Brussels

The cuts also displeased the Troika, under Britain's bailout agreement she was to get her national deficit to 3% of GDP by 2016, from the 5.6% it currently stood at. In talks with Hague’s Cabinet, EU Commissioner Marianne Thyssen had “gently” suggested offsetting these cuts with an increase to VAT - which the Government had refused. Chancellor Bob Stewart argued a short-term tax cut would boost economic growth, allowing Britain to boost it’s income in the long term and pay back it’s European Central Bank creditors. Hague called on the Troika to “soften demands” as Britain's economic strategy was “finally bearing fruit”. The economic situation had certainly improved from earlier in the decade, where Britain’s banking sector stood on the edge of collapse.

“Britain's economic recovery gathered momentum between July and September, with growth for a fifth consecutive quarter. The economy grew by 0.5% in the third quarter, according to the statistics office. This was slower than the 0.6% growth achieved in the previous three months. It took Britain’s annual rate of growth to the highest level in more than six years at 1.6%, up from 1.3% in the second quarter. Britain was one of the worst hit by the eurozone crisis, suffering a housing market crash which brought its banking system to the brink of collapse. It is now outperforming some of its bigger eurozone peers, including Germany, where the economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter. Economist David Tinsley, said: “The comeback has been impressive, but it remains premature to assume that a self-sustaining recovery has taken hold.” - UK's economic recovery gathers momentum, Angela Monaghan, The Guardian (2014)

Britain had seen a surge in foreign investment as international confidence grew in the ECB to contain the eurozone debt crisis, and with even lower taxes - and relatively low labour costs compared to other leading European economics - Britain was a prime target for investors. Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) increased 8.8% in 2014 to €15.8 billion euros. A large source of foreign investment was Britain's growing renewable energy market. With strong winds, a cheap labour pool, little red tape and a government eager to please, internationally owned private offshore wind farms were exploding across Britain's coastline, nearly 20% of Britain’s energy costs were met by renewable sources, putting it ahead of richer countries like Italy, France and even Germany.

The NHS meanwhile faced a winter crisis

Under the provision of the bailout Britain had to start paying back it’s debt from September 2014, this began with a 1.8 billion euro payment to the Troika from Britain's Treasury. The first payment being met on time and in full was a propaganda win for Hague, demonstrating Britain's strengthened economy. Hague did a victory lap across the media declaring that National had “taken the first steps in cleaning up the Social Democrat’s mess”. Ironically, the repayment also boosted the People’s Party - close to overtaking in the polls - who railed against the repayment, arguing the 1.8 billion could be spent on Britain's crumbling schools and hospitals.

The tax cuts also had a political purpose, and fed rumours Hague was looking to call a snap election. With the SDP in chaos, Hague could secure a second term before Burnham - a relative unknown with the voting public - had a chance to find his feet. Despite their issues, most polls showed National ahead of the SDP by nine or ten votes as the People’s Party continued to eat the Social Democratic base. Hague still had to rely on the Reform Party and SNP in order to govern, meaning he couldn’t be more aggressive in taking on the Troika or the Scottish Government without upsetting one of his parliamentary partners. Still Alan Johnson had called a snap election, and it had thrown his party out of power - one could never be certain in politics.

“We have our usual rush of Monday polls today, all showing a healthier result for the People's Party. Populus’ weekly poll had topline figures of PP 31%, NAT 25%, SDP 18%, REF 5%, UNI 4% and SA 4%. Before any People's Party fans reading get too excited I should note this victory isn't reflected in any other poll released today. Michael Ashcroft‘s weekly poll had topline figures of NAT 31%, SDP 25%, PP 22%, SA 4%, UNI 4% and REF 3%. Compared to his recent polls both have SDP down, National and People's both up. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of NAT 27%, PP 26%, SDP 20%, SA 7%, UNI 4% and REF 3%. So again, the SDP is lower than usual and the People's Party higher than usual.” - UK Polling Report, November 2014 (2014)

One poll showed the People's Party winning a plurality of steats

 

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Britain's police demanded new counter terrorism powers following the Charlie Hebdo attacks

“William Hague will take part in a rally against terrorism on Sunday in Paris in the wake of an attack on the French newspaper Charile Hebdo. "I will be in Paris on Sunday to lend support to the French people. Britain will join together with France against terrorism and for freedom" Hague wrote on his Twitter account. His spokesman said he had been invited by the French government. The news came as elite French police stormed a printworks Friday, killing two brothers wanted for the Charlie Hebdo attack. Explosions rocked the small printing firm as smoke poured from the building as the armed forces mounted their assault. The two Islamists launched a desperate escape bid, charging out of the building firing at the security forces.” - PM to join Sunday demo in Paris, BBC News Bulletin (2015)

2015 started in a bloody fashion when the Paris offices of satire magazine Charlie Hebedo were shot up by radical islamic militants, leaving a dozen people dead. The shocking attacks sparked outrage and fear across the European Union as member states raised their terror levels as other terror attacks struck the continent. The UK had never been a major target for Islamic terrorism, it’s relatively small Muslim population coupled with it’s withdrawal from Iraq as well as it’s refusal to join in with campaigns in Libya and Syria meant Britain wasn’t a high priority target - especially when compared to France. Britain’s security services had always seen dissident separatist and the occasional domestic political extremist as the main threats to national security.

Now with groups like Daesh becoming increasingly organised, and internationalist in it’s targets, islamic extremism rose up Britain's anxiety list. Home Secretary Steven Woolfe confirmed Britain would be increasing it’s terror readiness levels in response to the attack. This meant increased police presence at critical infrastructure points, stronger border checks and even the occasional deployment of servicemen when needed. Prime Minister William Hague also announced his intention to make changes to Britain's criminal code to make illegal sharing or possessing content that would “insight others to join a terrorist group”. In other words, anyone accessing website deemed to encourage terrorism could face time in prison.

The People's Party condemned changes to the criminal code as "soft authoritarianism"

Hague’s national security package also included reintroducing surveillance powers to the security services - powers that had been stripped in the Dearlove intelligence overreach scandal of 2007. Security services would once again be given the power to tap citizen’s mobile phones and other electronic communications without needing a warrant from a judge. Finally these reforms would create a national passenger airline database, allowing the Home Office to access the manifest and flight records of everyone flying in or out of the UK. The act of Parliament was known as the “Security for Citizens Act” and was described by journalist Helen Lewis as “the biggest attack on democratic rights since the dictatorship”.

“The legislation will now head to the House of Commons where it is expected to be ratified by the end of the month. Greenpeace has spoken out against the legislation. “It’s our right to express our opinion, to march to parliament, to go to power plants to say that they are dangerous” said John Sauven. Recent months have seen thousands pour into the streets of more than 25 cities and towns to voice their discontent with the bill. Protesters tie cloth over their mouths to show the chilling effect the law would have on free speech. A poll found that 82% of the 600 people queried thought the legislation should be modified or abandoned. The legislation is disproportionate, said Maurice Frankel of the Information Freedom Platform. “This is one of the worst attacks on liberties that we’ve seen in the UK since the time of Mountbatten”” - Woolfe puts 'gag' on freedom of expression, Ashifa Kassam, The Guardian (2015)

In cross party talks to secure support for this controversial new bill, Hague found an unlikely backer. The bill has split the Social Democrats with a group of over 20 backbench Social Democratic MPs calling on the party to support the bill. Under the leadership of Berkshire MP Luke Akehurst, the rebels argued that by voting against the bill Andy Burnham would send a “weak” “unpatriotic” message to the voting public. Even when Burnham put his foot down, declaring a whip against the bill, the rebels still declared their intention to vote with the government. Whilst the SDP split was small it did represent Burnham’s weak position even within his own party, as he struggled to control backbench MPs. The Social Democrats still struggled to reconcile the more authoritarian instincts of the trade union half of their base with the liberal inclination of the middle class intelligentsia side of the party’s supporters.

Charities warned the gagging law would make promoting peaceful direct action effectively illegal

Comparisons to Mountbatten’s “Defence of the Realm Act” (DRA), that the First Lord passed in 1969 formalising Britain as a dictatorship, were not lost on protesters. The DRA too brought in harsh new measures for dissent and increased police surveillance powers. Protesters would travel down to Westminster to speak out against the new bill, they held placards of Hague, Akehurst and Woolfe’s face photo-shopped onto Mountbatten’s body, or wore tape over their mouths in silent protest. Whilst MPs from the Alternative, People’s Party and SDP would join protests - students, islamic rights groups and others civil society groups would lead the charge around Parliament square. Home Secretary Woolfe in particular became a main target for the protesters, as when asked if the law targeted Muslims they told reporters the law should only worry “the violent ones”.

With the support of Akehurt’s rebels a watered down version Citizen’s Security Act did pass the commons. Whilst the SDP rebels and the SNP had managed to talk Woolfe off the airline database, the meat of the bill - including strict punishments for encouraging terror and increased surveillance powers made it onto the statue books. The “gag law” as it was known by opponents was now the law of the land. The legislation was widely criticised outside the UK including by a panel of five UN human rights experts who, in a statement, noted that the reforms “unnecessarily and disproportionately restrict basic freedoms”. The new, hip liberal National party was starting to look a lot like the old National Party.

“The lower house approved the Citizen's Security Act in January, and, despite pleas from rights groups and the United Nations, the Senate approved it last month. The law’s main purpose, it appears, is to discourage the protests that have snowballed into widespread support for the People's Party. The People's Party looks set to make major gains in elections next year. The European Commission should act to condemn the new law. Maina Kiai, the special rapporteur at the UNs on the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly, has urged lawmakers to repeal the measure. Britain’s new gag law harkens back to the dark days of the Mountbatten regime. It has no place in a democratic nation, where Brits, as citizens of the European Union, have more than a virtual right to peaceful, collective protest.” - Britain’s Ominous Gag Law, New York Times (2015)

Hague was taking after continental strongmen

 

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A handful of Brits had been recruited by Daesh

“Britain has detained four propagandists for ISIS, including suspects who targeted young women. Police arrested two suspects in Birmingham and two other suspects in Bradford. The detainees in Birmingham stand accused of running an online campaign “dedicated to the recruitment of women''. The detainees in Bradford allegedly spread ISIS propaganda through social media. One detainee had accumulated more than 1,400 followers on Facebook, according to authorities. Analysts estimate some 20 percent of ISIS recruits are women. All four detainies are women in what British officials call Europe's first all-female jihadi ring. 20% of Birmingham's population are Muslim. The City has a jobless rate of more than 30 percent, one of the worst unemployment problems in Europe.” - Britain Breaks Up ISIS Recruitment Ring Targeting Young Women, Dan Kedemy, Time (2015)

The explosive rise of Daesh in Iraq and Syria would continue to headline British newspapers. Reports of UK young people leaving the UK to join Daesh became increasingly prevalent, with girls leaving to become wives and boys to become Daesh fighters. One notable police operation, named “Operation Budapest” busted a trafficking ring of over 30 British nationals fundraising and recruiting young people for the organisation. All in all over 200 British nationals would leave for the Levant to join Daesh in 2015. The recruitment of teenagers was the most sinister aspect of Daesh activities in the UK and British schools became increasingly suspicious of their students.

Britain would face a reckoning with Daesh when one of Daesh’s leading television executioners, was named as Mohammed Emwazi, or “Jihadi John” by the tabloid press. Emwazi had gained notoriety for his televised beheadings of several western hostages, including journalist James Foley and aid worker David Haines. The Security Services would come under further pressure as it emerged that Britain's intelligence community was not only aware of Emwazi, but had actively tried to recruit him as an informer. Security services believed that Daesh agents were actively seeking out British nationals to take as hostages to increase it’s infamy abroad - particularly targeting British aid workers, journalists and tourists across the Middle East.

Daesh had stormed through Syria

In response to the growing threat the Foreign Office ordered all British nationals in high risk countries such as Tunisia and Saudi Arabia to return home as quickly as possible declaring that an attack on British tourists was “highly likely”. Major airlines like Thomas Cook announced they would be suspending flights to the Middle East in light of increased security concerns. The Home Office also began mounting regular counter terrorism exercises, the largest of these named “Operation Home Coming” simulated a mass jihadist attack across London involving over 1,000 police officers and military personnel. Whilst there was unlikely to be any malicious elements to these exercises, they still put the public on edge, especially for those old enough to remember the military “exercises” leading up to the 1968 coup.

“A simulated terror attack on London’s tube network tested the capital’s emergency response capabilities on Tuesday. Armed men in balaclavas were seen on a London street and “victims” were treated by emergency services. The exercise, planned since January, was sometimes “noisy and visible” as Police London had warned. The two-day operation, which began on Tuesday and is codenamed Homecoming, is designed to test responses to such an attack. London’s largest ever counter-terror drill included 14 different organisations and agencies. Police London says it now arrests on average one person a day for possible terror offences and believes it has disrupted some “very serious” plots. Maxine de Brunner, the city's Chief Inspector, said before the exercise started that mistakes were bound to be made “but best we make them today".” - London police and emergency services take part in mock terrorist attack, James Meikle, The Guardian (2015)

Not all who travelled to Syria fought on the side of Daesh. As a country with both dormant and active left-wing paramilitaries Britain was prime recruiting ground for Kurdish Rojava fighters. One video emerged on social media showing a group of British youths posing with the flags of the Soviet Union, Kurdistan and republican British flag. It was reported dozens of youth, mostly affiliated with the SNLA or left-wing paramilitaries like the Red Brigades had joined the People's Defence Units in Kurdistan fighting against Daesh. The most notable of these was over a dozen leftist fighting as part of the "Scargil Brigade". Foreign fighters for Kurdistan included former British servicemen, most notably former Royal Marine Konstandinos Scurfield who was killed in action on the frontlines of Syria’s civil war.

Counter-terrorism exercises made some uneasy

Whilst some in Hague’s Cabinet wanted to see Britain take more direct action against Daesh through joining in US/French airstrikes in Syria - Hague was hesitant to act without official UN approval. Both Reform and the SNP stated they would only vote for airstrikes with a United Nations International mandate, so Hague didn’t have the votes for airstrikes even if he wanted to. Hague also had one eye on next years election, with his incredibly low approval rating and divided Parliamentary caucus Hague simply didn’t have the political capital to ram through controversial and expensive military operations. Britain would be sitting the airstrikes out.

Britain’s non-interventionist policy may have been popular at home, but it left the Hague administration isolated in the western community. Hague was not invited to a Sarkozy led summit on countering ISIS involving the United States, Germany, Italy, Russia, China and Canada. But Hague remembered how popular opposition to the Iraq War had helped to bring the Junta down and arguably elected Hague as Prime Minister. The National Party was caught between a rock and a hard place, wanting to stand in solidarity with France on one hand and desperate not to awaken the ghosts of the past on the other. Hague instead reached a compromise that pleased no-one.

Whilst Britain would not be taking part in joint airstrikes against Daesh, Defence Secretary Nicholas Soames, in a joint press conference with French Defence Secretary Gérard Longuet announced both nations would deploy more troops to Africa in joint counter-terrorism exercises with a focus on Mali and the Central African Republic. Britain would also take command of EU CSDP operations in Africa. Soames argued that deploying British troops on crisis management operations in central Africa would free up French forces for operations against Daesh in Syria. After it’s experience of military dictatorship the British public were sceptical of foreign intervention, and international allies also believe direct British intervention would do more harm than good. Thus Britain could assist in the anti-Daesh effort without committing British military resources directly.

“Some 7,000 people protested in London against military action in Syria, with many wary of Britain becoming a target for militants. French leaders have in recent days called on allies to join France in stepping up military action against the jihadist group. On Thursday Defence Minister Gérard Longuet called on Britain to help "win this war". A day later, Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said the campaign against IS should move beyond airstrikes to ground troops. "It will be necessary, France has no intention of intervening on the ground. Foreign troops would be seen as an occupying force. Thus they must be Syrian, Arab, Kurdish troops," he told the BBC. Whilst PM Hague has ruled out joining French led airstrikes he is facing mounting pressure from the international community.” - Protests in UK As Momentum Builds to Join Syria Strikes, Associated Press (2015)

Hague didn't want to commit to risky military campaigns so close to an election

 

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Transport unions organised the biggest set of strikes of the Hague era

“Air traffic controllers are due to start a week of partial strikes today. The Industry Ministry has set minimum service levels at 70% for the stoppages, which could affect up to 13,000 flights. The stoppages will take place for two-hour periods during morning and afternoon shifts, from 10am to 12pm, and 6pm to 8pm. The protest has been called by the Air Traffic Controllers Union (ATCU), which represents 90% of the country’s controllers. The reason for the industrial action is the suspension of 86 controllers as punishment for a wildcat strike. The walkout had its origins in a decree passed by the previous SDP government that increased controllers’ working hours at the same time as it lowered their salaries. The action took the form of an avalanche of staff calling in sick as a result of alleged “anxiety and psychological pressure.” - air traffic controllers start week of strikes, BBC News Bulletin (2015)

Britain’s trade unions were on manoeuvres again for a summer of industrial action. Despite pleas from the SDP leadership not to spook voters before next year's election - several leading unions announced strike plans. The union “Signal” that represented train drivers and other rail workers announced a week of strikes in disputes around hours. Signal argued that Britain's railways were understaffed by nearly 2,000 workers, leading to unreasonable hours for railway workers and safety issues for the public. The Air Traffic Controller’s Union (ATCU) announced they would also be joining the strikes also complaining of chronic under-staffing and overworked employees. The strikes came as Britain entered it’s busy holiday period, with children off school and families planning to jet away, the strikes brought national infrastructure to a halt. News cameras recorded winding lines in airports and families sleeping in terminal corners.

At the same time as strikes rocked the country, big business started to make cuts. HSBC, Britain’s largest bank, announced they would be downsizing their UK operation by sacking 8,000 employees - over 10% of the bank’s UK workforce. HSBC’s downsizing was quickly followed by other leading banks. Instead HSBC and other leading financial institutions would prioritise their work in Asia, most notably China, a quickly rising financial super-power. HSBC’s decision stirred outrage in much of the public, HSBC had been saved by UK taxpayer money and the Troika bailout, and the bank had even had a 5% tax cut last year. Despite all the support and money poured into Britain's banking industry, leading financiers were cashing their chips.

An ageing Meacher would rail against the cuts in Parliament

To rub further salt in the wound, as Britain's bankers laid off staff Chancellor Bob Stewart announced over 12 billion euros worth of benefit cuts. This included a new 21,000 euro benefit cap for families, as well as cuts to housing benefit and tax credits. Voters hoping for reprieve from the Social Democrats received no such luck when Shadow Chancellor Douglas Alexander confirmed the party would not oppose the benefit cap. In Parliament, Alternative Leader Michael Meacher railed against the cap consensus, calling Stewart’s speech a “sermon from an austerity cult - cutting where it is not necessary and weakening further the chance of a sustained recovery".

"Besides the themes of anti-austerity, the emphasis on sovereignty was recurrent throughout Ribeiro-Addy's speech. She grounded Britain’s nationhood in a shared history and a rootedness in place and space, rather than abstractions. Ribiero-Addy made the place she was standing, Trafalgar Square , a central protagonist of her speech. She recalled the many fights for liberty that have taken place there, alluding to them but without ever uttering the name "Mountbatten''. Instead speaking of how those “below” fought for liberty, democracy, justice and the “dignity of our country”. “This Square has seen the recovery of our freedoms” she continued, “and on that 2009 day, thousands of young people cried ‘They don’t represent us! We want democracy!’ Those brave people are here today, you are the force of change, thank you for being here”. - Bell’s March for Change, Cristina Fominaya, Open Democracy (2015)

Stewart also turned his eye to Whitehall, where he announced all Ministries apart from Defence and the Home Office were expected to make a 25% cut to their total budget, saving nearly 40 billion euros in spending. Stewart went on to say that he would prioritise government spending in areas that promoted “ innovation and greater collaboration in public service”. Whilst the military was protected from direct cuts, Stewart announced plans to self-off 1.5 billion euros worth disused military land. MoD owned land accounted for over 2% of Britain, amounting to over 600 billion euros worth of land. For the first time under a National Government, the boys in green also received the scalpel.

Cuts to the military would have been unthinkable before the 2009 reforms

The “banking cull” as the media called it, alongside the benefit cap, and civil service cuts led to fresh rounds of OutRage protests, now under the leadership of the People’s Party. Polls showed the People’s Party in a close three way battle with National and the SDP to become a mainstream party. With it’s best case polls showing the insurgents winning 120 seats, if the People’s Party could make a deal with the Alternative they faced become Britain's largest party. The rally cry of these protests was “dignity” arguing that whilst things were going well for the City, over a quarter of Brits remained unemployed and struggling to survive. Since Hague came to power in 2012 he had cut over 212 billion euros from the public realm, and showed no sign of slowing down. Still British elites look nervously at Greece, where similar protests against austerity had swept the radical left Syriza to power.

People’s Party leader Bell Ribeiro-Addy would even headline Glastonbury, the world famous music festival that had been crushed by the Junta so long ago. Speaking at the festival Ribiero-Addy called for young people to register to vote and to turnout against a “deck stacked against us”. After Ribeiro-Addy spoke, musicians lined up to endorse the party including Run the Jewels and Stormzy. People’s Party MEP Charlotte Church, a former singer herself then performed for the crowd. Polls showed over 50% of under 24s intending to vote for the People’s Party, more than double their next closest rival Unity. The main issue for the People’s Party would be getting protest and glastonbury attendees off the streets and into the ballot box.

“The People's Party will win much of the youth vote at the general election, but those who attend their rallies are older. Activism comes to those in their forties and above, many of whom recall the Junta and are surprised by the younger generation’s passivity. Loudspeakers pumped out Patti Smith’s People Have the Power to 11,280 people packed into the football stadium. “Here comes the rockstar moment,” warned a journalist as Ribiero-Addy and her Deputy Owen Jones appeared to raucous applause. A middle-aged woman in leopard skin-print trousers bellowed: “Prime Minister!” Someone else shouted: “Long live the mother who gave birth to you!” As capital of a region notorious for political corruption, Derby is fertile ground for the People's Party, despite it's older whiter population.” - The People’s Party revolution, Giles Tremlett, The Guardian (2015)

The mainstream parties continued to push young voters away

 

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Hague made a visit to a Congolese Refugee camp alongside celebrity Angelina Jolie

“William Hague on Thursday urged world powers to help end the war in Syria after the "horrifying" sight of a dead Syrian toddler on a Turkish shore. “I am not in a position to say if it is a good or a bad thing to use ground forces” to intervene in the Syrian conflict, Hague said. speaking to BBC Radio's Today Program. Millions of people have fled Syria to escape its civil war, according to the UN. In the latest shocking sign of the migrants' plight, photographs of a small Syrian boy washed up dead made front pages around Europe. “The photograph is truly tragic. It is horrifying,” Hague said. “And it is a sign of something that is happening often. Many women and children have died in the Mediterranean”. Hague has faced demands for the United Kingdom to host a greater number of refugees, but he did not shift his position on Thursday.” - Hague “horrified” by drowned toddler image, BBC News Bulletin (2015)

As Syria and Iraq collapsed Europe faced down it’s worst ever migrant crisis, the response from EU member states was decidedly mixed. Germany won international acclaim for welcoming Syrian refugees unconditionally, whilst countries like Austria and Hungary shut their borders and unleashed water cannons on migrants. Chaotic scenes erupted in Budapest as authorities closed the city's main train station, preventing refugees moving on to Germany. The Merkel administration processed over 800,000 asylum applications in 2015, quadruple the number of applicants in previous years - more than the rest of the EU combined. In an attempt to balance the refugee crisis, Berlin called on a European wide migrant quota, so EU member states would accept refugees in proportion to their population.

A showdown would quickly develop between allies of Germany, and newer Eastern European states suspicious of migrant quotas including Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. These states threatened to reintroduce border measures in violation of Shengen or even deploy soldiers to keep migrants out. Britain found itself in the middle of this debate. Being over 2,500 miles from Syria and with a massive unemployment rate Britain would not be an attractive location for Syrian refugees anyway. Without a quota Britain would likely be unaffected by the crisis. Thus the Hague administration had a choice, join with the Eastern rebels and let Germany shoulder the burden, or step up as a true European partner.

As the EU’s fourth most populous member state the Commission sought to assign Britain 21,000 Syrian refugees, around 18% of the 120,000 people the commission hoped to resettle. The Hague administration, especially Home Secretary Steven Woolfe, were resistant to the quota push, arguing Britain was already overwhelmed by the 4,000 asylum applications they had already received. Hague, a natural eurosceptic himself with one eye on the election, was also reluctant to join the quota scheme. This was until the image of Alan Kurdi, a three year old boy who drowned in the Mediterranean was published across the globe.

Many older Brits had experience of being refugees themselves

Kurdi’s death sparked a wave of sympathy for migrants across Europe, especially hitting the heart-strings of British voters - many of whom had lived as exiles or refugees themselves. At protests in London and across the country 230,000 people turned out under the banner “our home is your home” as marches began at Park Lane and proceeded to Downing Street. The protests were joined by leading politicians like Bell Ribiero-Addy and Owen Jones but also well known celebrities including Benedict Cumberbatch, Keira Knightly and Colin Firth. The People’s Party wrapped itself in pro-migrant protests as Ribiero-Addy hailed a “remarkable turn” in public opinion.

“Few could have predicted, some months ago, such a response. The fact that in less than 24 hours more than 100,000 people signed a petition to welcome refugees advanced by change.org is the tip of the iceberg. What explains such reactions? With one in four still unemployed, British society had all the numbers to embrace a “Thanks, but no thanks” approach to the refugee crisis. That was the policy adopted by Hague’s government initially, now Britain will be the fourth biggest recipient of refugees in Europe. Pressure from society factored in the executive's decision to overturn its initial policy. Together the 71 refugees found in a lorry abandoned on a motorway in Austria and Aylan’s lifeless body lying on a Turkish beach were a tipping point. The images of the deadly lorry and Aylan made us all fall out of our Mephistophelian beds.” - A turning point for Britain on refugees, David Blake, Open Democracy (2015)

As the public turned the politicians followed, in a shocking u-turn speech Hague announced Britain would accept the 21,000 refugees stating there was “no limit to Britain's solidarity with refugees”. In an unusually liberal speech Hague told journalists “now is not the time to quibble over numbers”. As well as the central Westminster Government, the Scottish Government under Patrick Harvie confirmed intentions to welcome a further 2,000 Syrian refugees on top of those settled by the Westminster scheme. Provincial Governments also announced their willingness to go further in accepting asylum seekers with South Yorkshire President Rosie Winterton even pledging to open up her own home to refugees in her province.

Provincial Government were embarrassing Westminster into action

Hague also emphasised to stop migration at it’s source. He joined with Merkel and Commission President Barnier in calling for a 1.8 billion euro EU fund to help African and Middle Eastern nations better manage their borders to slow the stream of migrants moving towards Europe. Now came the question of not only accepting refugees but absorbing them, Britain did not have a strong track record of assimilating refugees. When Johnson first came to power in 2005 he hoped to show Britain's new democratic progressive side by accepting thousands of Afghani, Iraqi and Cuban refugees in what ended as a complete fiasco with refugees unable to find work and many even emigrating. Britain had come a long way from the broken country it had been in 2005 but now she had to prove herself as a reliable host country.

There were also fears of the far-right. Whilst Britain had avoided the radical right entering mainstream politics like in France, the Netherlands and now even Germany, a xenophobic movement was still underneath the surface. With a weakened housing and public welfare system many observers worried parties like the Centrists could exploit tensions between British-born voters and their new refugee cousins. Britain and Germany had been the exception to the rise of radical conservative political forces, but now even Germany was succumbing to the growing far-right AFD. If Germany couldn’t resist the anti-migrant siren call, what hope did Britain - with fascists paramilitaries marching in the streets - have?

“Britain is very much the exception in Europe: France, Germany and the Netherlands have all seen the growth of anti-immigration parties. So why not the United Kingdom? To start with, say the experts, the majority of migrants who came to the UK did so during a construction boom, and they came to work. Migrants were well received because they fed the boom. What’s more, unlike in other countries, many migrants share a language and cultural traits with Brits. Another reason is that Brits are able to identify with the immigrant’s position, much more so than say, a German or a Finn. In the 1970s and 1980s, millions of Brits went abroad in search of work, and now, the children of those men and women are repeating the process.” - Why Britain has resisted the rise of the far right, Robert Siegel, NPR (2015)

Civil Assistance had pivoted from anti-democracy activism to anti-refugee and migrant actions

 

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A cloud had hung over the monarchy since the attempted coup of 2009

“After 63 years on the throne, Queen Elizabeth announced Monday that she is abdicating in favour of her son. “I have always sought to be a Queen for all the people,” she said in a prerecorded five-minute video address broadcast. “My only ambition was for the progress of all British people, I want the best for the United Kingdom. Prince Charles is taking up her mantle, though the role of king is ceremonial, the post carries great moral weight among many Brits. “My son Charles, inheritor of the crown, is the embodiment of stability,” Elizabeth said. “The Prince of Wales has the maturity and the necessary preparation to assume the role.” It is not clear exactly when the handover will take place, as the British government must enact the legal mechanisms of succession.” - Britain’s Queen Abdicates, Lauren Frayer, Los Angeles Times (2015)

Queen Elizabeth was an enigma. She was both the woman who had stood by as tanks rolled across Whitehall in 1968, and at the same time the woman who rescued British democracy in 2009. At 90 years old she was the longest reigning monarch in British history, but the last few years of her time on the throne had been riddled with scandal and doubt. Her realm had cracked apart as radical separatists seized power in Scotland, unemployment reached an all-time high, and the two party system collapsed. Questions were still asked about just how much knowledge the Queen had of the 2009 coup, and allegations of corruption, bullying and even sexual abuse surrounded the Royal Household. In 2014 for the first time ever the Queen’s approval rating had fallen into the negatives with a minus one approval rating on average.

There were also questions of the Queen’s health and age, being the longest serving monarch in British history. She had been brought into hospital over a dozen times in the last year alone, most notably with a nasty flare of gastroenteritis. This led to her frequently missing important engagements, and when she was seen in public she walked with the aid of a stick. Charles had been frequently filling in for his mother, especially on trips abroad to swear in the Governor-General of various Commonwealth realms. The Queen had not been abroad since a visit to the Republic of Ireland in 2011 and hadn’t left the British Isles on a long-haul journey since 2010.

Nearly 40% of voters supported an elected head of state

In a televised address to the nation Prime Minister William Hague told the world Britain’s old reigning monarch was planning to abdicate in favour of the Prince of Wales. In his speech Hague hailed Queen Elizabeth as a “tireless defender of the British people” and as “the best symbol for peaceful coexistence”. Hague welcomed the accession of Elizabeth’s son as someone who would “open a new era of hope combining his acquired experience and the drive of a new generation”. It was true Elizabeth had been a linchpin of British society, overseeing the end of World War Two, the end of Empire, the 1968 coup and a return to democracy. Now she followed a wave of European monarchs including Pope Benedict XVI, Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands, King Juan-Carlos of Spain and King Albert II of Belgium to abdicate.

“If kings and queens are able to savour the best things in life, why shouldn't they retire, too? It does happen, as the world saw Monday. Queen Elizabeth of the United Kingdom became the latest royal to say she's stepping down. It's "time to hand over to a new generation," the 90-year-old announced in a televised address, declaring that she's leaving the job. Her son, Prince Charles, 67, will take over. In January 2013, Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands passed the crown to her son Prince Willem-Alexander. He was 46 at the time. In July 2013, King Albert II of Belgium gave up his kingship, reportedly over concerns that he was too old to carry out his duties. Even the Pope didn't want to keep working, an unprecedented "I quit" came in 2013 when the Vatican announced that Pope Benedict XVI was leaving the papacy.” - Royal’s Quit Across Europe, CNN Bulletin (2015)

Charles wasn’t exempt from controversy either, unlike Elizabeth, Charles was outspoken on many political issues, most notably the environment and homoeopathic medicine. There was also Charles’ personal closeness to First Lord Mountbatten, who had been a mentor and a father figure to Charles - even trying to arrange a marriage with his daughter. Charles was a much more outspoken figure in comparison to his mother, and immediately drew criticism for some on the left for his proximity to Mountbatten. Some within the Palace even suggested skipping a generation for Prince William for a post-Junta Monarch. But no laws would be changed - the crown would go to Charles.

The wave of abdications was indications for some that monarchies as a global institution were dying

30,000 protesters would descend on London to demand a referendum on the monarchy, waving the red, white and green flag of the Chartist movement. A petition for a republican referendum organised by radical left parties received over 160,000 signatures. Robbie Parkin, Director of Campaign Against the Monarchy told protesters “now is the time for the system to change”. “We want to give a voice to the people, why is it a problem to organise a referendum? Why is it a problem to give the people the right to decide their future?” added Bell Ribiero-Addy of the People’s Party. The protests were overwhelmingly dominated by the young post-Junta citizens, with polls showing Elizabeth had an approval rating of -41 among under 24s.

The abdication risked constitutional tinkering beyond the head of state, for national separatists Elizabeth’s departure presented an opportunity. President of Scotland Patrick Harvie announced the change in leadership meant Scotland would forge ahead with a push for independence. Harvie announced the Scottish Government would formally request the right to hold a referendum on independence in 2016, but if this request was rejected the Scottish Executive would forge ahead with a unilateral referendum organised by the Scottish Government itself. Charles had a strong disapproval rating in Scotland due to his closeness with Mountbatten and various gaffes during visits in the region including declaring he couldn’t “understand Scots after 5pm as they’ve had too much to drink”. Poor Charles hadn’t even sat on the throne yet and already everyone was having a pop.

“Lawmakers in Britain approved on Wednesday an abdication law that paves the way for Prince Charles to ascend to the throne. But the parliamentary debate also highlighted the political tensions that await Charles. Scottish lawmakers abstained from the vote, calling on the Prince to endorse their plan to hold a referendum on independence. The debate was also disrupted by left-wing parliamentarians, demanding a referendum on the monarchy. William Hague praised Elizabeth, particularly for serving as the “skilful pilot of our democratic transition". A decade later, Charles was taking over with the clear backing of British society, Mr. Hague said. “Never in the history of the past two centuries has a succession taken place with such normality as this one,” he added.” - British Lawmakers Clear Way for Queen’s Abdication, Raphael Minder, New York Times (2013)

Two of Britain's last three monarchs had abdicated

 

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The Palace was besieged by abuse and corruption rumours

“No other European royal families, nor any heads of state, will attend Charles' coronation ceremony. “We have very little time, and there is no room in the benches of the Lords or the gallery,” explained a Royal Household spokesperson on Thursday. “We aren’t going to make people come to leave them outside.” There will be military honours outside Parliament, and Charles will attend the ceremony in his military uniform. Buckingham Palace has yet to confirm which members of the royal family will be present at the September 30th ceremony. Nor have they confirmed whether the current Queen will attend. There are intense media intentions as to whether Prince Andrew will be present, given that he is currently caught up in a impropriety scandal.” - Coronation of Charles III to take place without presence of foreign royals, BBC News Bulletin (2015)

Charles the Third’s coronation was notably asture compared to the coronation ceremonies of previous monarchs. Extravagances were kept to a relative minimum, with a small guest list of a few hundred and invitations not extended to foreign royals. The more low-key coronation was a sign of the monarchy’s weakened position in this time of transition, with Britain still deep in the throes of austerity the Palace didn’t want to court public outrage with a lavish coronation ceremony as unemployment remained in the high 20s. As one commentator put it “if you ask young people if they want the monarchy or jobs they’ll answer jobs”. Even amongst Britain’s royalists Charles still had to prove himself, with many being Elizabethans rather than hardcore monarchists.

Clad in full military uniform, Charles attended the handover ceremony in Westminster, where he swore to protect the British people, as well as to execute law, justice and mercy to the best of his ability. A military parade then took the new King and his family through the streets of London, eventually arriving at Buckingham Palace, where both generations of British royalty waved to crowds. The procession was surrounded at every turn by both monarchist supporters and republican protesters, with some sporadic violence breaking out along Charles’ route. Charles’ hopes to win the hearts and minds of the British people met the reality of a severely divided public.

Questions over an elected head of state added to a long list of debates engulfing the country

The subdued ceremony did anger some of the right of British politics, the Express editorial wrote of the coronation: "the policy of austerity has been carried out to such an extent that it has been confused with keeping a low profile," said the pro-royal paper. "There is no similarity with the brilliance with which other countries have celebrated their handovers. These were events in which they took the opportunity to present their best image to the world and get a huge payoff," the article added. Being both a divorcee and an open environmentalist also fuelled distrust towards Charles from conservative and Anglican groups. Right-wing commentators like Andrew Roberts called on Charles to take a harder line against separatists and radical parties in defence of the duopoly status-quo.

“We must defend the rights of our citizens and promote our interests, seeking greater participation in the global agenda. Honourable Members in my remarks today, I have sought to convey to you my convictions on the Britain which I love. I wish to thank the British people for the support and affection I have received on so many occasions. My belief in our future is based on my faith in British society. It is mature and vigorous, responsible and caring, a society that is showing great fortitude. Honourable Members, we have a great country; we are a great nation, let us believe and trust in her. "I am proud of the British people and nothing would honour me more than if, through my work, I could make the people of Britain proud of their new King.” - Charles’ Speech to Parliament (2015)

In Charles' coronation speech Charles paid homage to his mother’s “extraordinary” legacy over six decades. He also spoke of the need for a monarch to unify the country in a nod to the raging independence debates in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. In addressing the scandals facing the Palace Charles said as King he would strive to set an example of “transparent and honest behaviour”. The main theme however of Charles' speech was the ideal of moving forward, despite Britain's economic woes Charles called on MPs to “look forward to the United Kingdom we will build together”. Whilst his speech was met well by most, with a standing ovation from MPs, several political leaders in attendance, most notably Diane Abbott, Patrick Harvie and Dafydd Jones refused to applaud.

Charles now had to justify his existence to a sceptical public

Charles had quite the in-tray going into Buckingham Palace. Whilst he was unlikely to face a military uprising or a mass armed insurgency like his mother, he still had to forge a new identity in the face of a deeply divided nation. With faith in the government at an all time low and the Royal Family seen as corrupt Charles had to prove himself whiter than white, one foot wrong during this tenuous transition could spell doom for the entire institution. His largest challenge however would be as defender of the union, Prime Minister William Hague had already shot down Scottish President Patrick Harvie’s call for a legal independence referendum, and a unilateral referendum was looking increasingly likely.

Charles also had to square the monarchy’s role as symbols of British history, a bloody, divisive history where the scars were just beginning to heal. Memes regarding Charles’ close friendship with First Lord Mountbatten were already circulating on social media. Charles hopes to be a political peacemaker would always be constrained by these images, distrusted by the radical left and Celtic separatists. With the elections scheduled next year looking increasingly like a four or five way battle, such a peacemaker would be more valuable than ever. In the event of no clear election winner, it would be Charles' job to call for a Prime Minister and guide him in forming a government. With a fragmented parliament and an activist on the throne, Charles could be the most influential King in modern times.

“King Charles faces a daunting array of challenges after becoming king last Wednesday. Some are the consequence of the severe economic crisis endured over the past six years, which has resulted in extreme social hardship. As his mother, Elizabeth admitted in her abdication speech, the crisis has inflicted very deep scars, which will not heal overnight. The crisis has also fuelled public disaffection with Britain's major institutions. Elizabeth herself has acknowledged as much by stating that her abdication was meant to pave the way for "reforms''. Like his mother, the king will have very limited political powers, British politics will still depend on the major party leaders. But, the monarch arbitrates British institutions, which allows him to nudge political leaders.” - Charles faces daunting challenges as king, Raphael Minder, New York Times (2015)

Pundits expected Charles to be more active in politics and campaigning then his mother

 

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Meacher's death was an omen for his party

“Michael Meacher, leader of the Socialist Alternative has died aged 75 after a short illness. Meacher was born in Hertfordshire and educated at Oxford University. He worked as a researcher and lecturer before his arrest as a political prisoner in 1974. During his time in Belmarsh he met others who would go on to found the Alternative including long-time ally John McDonnell. When democracy returned in 2005 he was elected as an MP for Merseyside and became a leading member of the Alternative. Alan Johnson was among politicians paying tribute to Meacher, describing him as “principled and kind". John McDonnell, the Alternative's founder said: “Michael was a prodigious writer, who campaigned for social justice throughout his life. “His commitment to ending poverty marked him out as a tribune of the people." - Alternative Leader Michael Meacher dies aged 75, Associated Press (2015)

Michael Meacher's death was a tragedy, the end of an era and all the other ways journalists described his passing their obituary. But for the Socialist Alternative above all it was bloody inconvenient. Meacher had been elected leader back in the day as the only man able to hold the Alternative’s warring factions together. Even in the rising tide of the People’s Party, brutal austerity and National’s return to power Meacher was able to keep the show on the road. Despite the fact the Alternative was polling a fifth of voters the People’s Party was reaching, only one Alternative MP had jumped ship, mostly down to Meacher’s iron discipline within the party.

Well now Meacher was dead and old arguments threatened to tear the alternative apart, the main issue being the People’s Party. On one hand some in the Alternative wanted to build a leftist alliance with the People’s Party, giving the radical left a real shot at leading a government for the first time in history. On the other hand were the hardliners who wanted to keep the People’s Party at an arm’s length and the Communist Party firmly in control of their coalition. Meacher had of course ridden both horses at the same time, working with the People’s Party but swearing off any formal agreement, well no-one needed reminding that Meacher was dead.

Forces within the Alternative had long been pushing for it’s decentralisation and democratisation in the face of it’s collapsing support. Young voters, once the party’s base, had abandoned the Alternative in droves to support the People’s Party. Younger voters increasingly saw the Alternative as a party of old men blinded by nostalgia and unable to move on from the glory days of Junta resistance. Historic support for the Social Democrats under John McDonnell and constant infighting within the Alternative’s various parties had only strengthened the electorate’s distrust of the Alternative, who were going from the UK’s third largest party to the verge of oblivion.

Abbott wanted to bring the Alternative into the 21st century

In fact a lot of the Alternative’s leadership, mostly old men, had been swept aside by the annals of time; Bob Crow had died in 2014, both Dennis Skinner and Ken Loach were well into their 80s. Deputy Leader Diane Abbott seemed Meacher’s natural successor but she was distrusted by the dominant Communist Party for her closeness to the People’s Party. In announcing her bid for party leader, Abbott called on the Alternative to take a more pluralistic approach to politics, working with other left wing parties including the People’s Party and RISE, she condemned “conservative” elements within the coalition, declaring they were holding the left back.

“We want to recover politics as an instrument and not as a show. We are not interested in knowing the private tastes of politicians, we want to deliberate on political projects. For this, we are committed to democratic institutions that preserve plurality and value social justice. In short, our plan is a new country that gives back to the people the ability to govern themselves. To do so, we propose a constituent process that, in a participatory way, will create a new Constitution. With a proportional electoral system and Popular Legislative Initiatives that can create law. A federal country designed by and for the popular classes. And, of course, a Republic. A decade after the Cardiff Accords, it is time to open a new stage. It is about our lives and how we want to live them. We have an opportunity together to begin this journey.” - Diane Abbott Rally Speech (2015)

Ken Livingstone would emerge as Abbott’s main challenger after other leading figures from the hard-line faction of the party like Robert Griffiths and Dave Nellist ruled themselves out. Livingstone declared himself the “candidate of our party’s history” warning Abbott would turn the Alternative into the “Ribeiro party”. Livingstone emphasised the need for a “stridently anti-imperialist voice in British politics'', in comparison to the People’s Party who held relatively vague views on issues such as NATO and Palestinian liberation due to their populist politics and diverse internal coalition. Unfortunately for Livingstone he had just as many enemies as Abbott, with many even within his own Communist Party refusing to back his candidacy. Fellow hardliner Dennis Skinner refused to endorse either candidate, describing Livingstone as having an “ego as big as a house”.

Skinner turning on Livingstone marked a turning point in the campaign

Several other leading figures seemed to agree with Skinner as the hardliner’s support collapsed. Facing electoral oblivion outside of the People’s Party tend, dozens of MPs, delegates and trade unions declared their support for Abbott. Without Meacher holding the Communist Party together it split into dozens of factions with nearly half of the Communist delegates voting for Abbott over the party’s officially sanctioned man. The Communist Party who had dominated resistance to the Junta, then dominated the Socialist Alternative and radical left, had its power irreversibly broken. Diane Abbott was elected by delegates in a landslide as leader of the Alternative, and her first act was to reach out to the People’s Party to arrange a pact.

If a popular

alliance of left wing parties could be formed, it faced real prospects of becoming Britain’s main opposition party, or even it’s largest party on a good election night. Polls showed a left-wing alliance winning around 150 seats in the event of a snap election, even more so if the pact extended to RISE or Forward Wales. Pundits already began to speak of Britain as being the next domino to fall in the Syriza wave following Greece. On paper the two nations had a lot of similarities, former military Junta, EU bailout, divided centre and strong radical left. Even if a joint list couldn’t be agreed, a non-aggression pact between the two forces of the radical left was a real threat to the political establishment.

“There is unlikely to be an immediate ‘Syriza’ surge elsewhere in Europe. Only in Britain, Spain or Denmark are we likely to see dramatic gains for the radical left in upcoming elections. The UK's People's Party is often portrayed as the next Syriza, and indeed the party even possesses some advantages over Syriza (such as a more charismatic leader in Bell Ribeiro-Addy). That said, the barriers are still formidable and the presence of the established Alternative party is likely to complicate matters further. Indeed, the People's Party's early poll rise has started to stall. In the longer run Syriza’s victory can have a galvanising effect elsewhere, as indeed it already has. But sustaining this effect will depend on the performance of the Syriza government.” - Sustaining the Syriza surge, Lecture by Luke March, London School of Economics (2015)

Activists dreamed of a British Syriza​