“"The statute describes a sovereign nation," said Stephen Tierney, a professor of constitutional law. A central issue, Tierney said, was the declaration that Scotland's powers emanate purely from the Scottish people. Under current law, these powers emanate from the Constitution, laws and the Queen of the UK. In Scotland, critics of the bill said it gives too little autonomy, not too much. They took issue with claims that the initiative would quell demands for more self-government for decades. This is not an agreement that will resolve the issue for long," said professor James Mitchell, from the University of Edinburgh. He said that Scottish politicians had already begun discussing strategies for further autonomy. "There is a certain level of disappointment in Scotland that the statute does not go far enough," the professor said.” - Autonomy passes for Scotland, Renwick McLean, New York Times (2013)
To say the Scottish Referendum was a landslide would be an understatement, nearly 80% of Scots voted in favour of further autonomy, in the greatest victory for peaceful Scottish Nationalism since the Cardiff Accords. The Referendum was relatively well attended, with over 60% of Scots turning out to cast their vote, despite a boycott campaign by some more extreme members of the loyalist community. Now the Referendum had passed Scottish politics became wide open, nearly 50% of Scots confessed to not fully understating the Statute of Autonomy, with over 70% of Scotts admitting they hadn’t read the Statute. The vague understanding of the Statute had benefited the Yes Campaign over the referendum, with it’s support stretching
from Marxist separatists to libertarian devolutionist
unionists, all viewing the Statute differently. This left the future incredibly open, for a savvy politician Scotland would be theirs for the taking.
The Statute granted wide ranging powers to the new Scottish Parliament, mostly importantly financial powers, granted the Scottish Parliament the ability to raise it’s own taxes, rather than grants passed down from central government. The statute would even give the Scottish Parliament limited powers over immigration, a competency once reserved for the Westminster Home Office, as well as the ability to directly appoint senior judges in the Scottish Judiciary. The Statute would also be recognised within the British constitution, noting Scotland as an “Autonomous Community with historic rights to self-determination under the law”.
The good-will cross party cooperation behind the Yes campaign would quickly disintegrate
The main question now would be the timing of a Scottish Parliament election, with its constitution-setting powers, this would likely be one of the consequential Scottish Parliaments in history. The separatist parties were eager for an election to be held as quickly as possible, to keep momentum from the Referendum going, whilst Loyalists pushed for caution, hoping the groundswell of support for an Independent Scotland would subside with time. Edward Llewellyn would set the date for the Scottish Election at the 25th of November, five months from the passage of the Referendum, meaning local parties would have less than four months to prepare for the beginning of the short campaign.
“76% of Scottish voters have voted in support of the new Statute, although participation has not exceeded the 66% expected by the Yes Campaign. The Yes Campaign have secured a victory that, according to Chair Gordon Wilsom, has been "resounding". The total of votes has been limited to 62.3% of the Scottish electoral roll. Of them, 75.6% have voted in favour of the statutory reform proposed by the Government and 24,4% have expressed themselves against. In summary, the new Statute has been endorsed by 47% of Scottish citizens with the right to vote. The president of the SNP John Swinney congratulated himself and committed "all his effort" to the deployment of the new statutory norm.” - Scottish Statute goes ahead with 74% of the vote, Thomas McTague, Daily Mail (2013)
Many parties had their war-chests drained by the referendum
An immediate consequence of the Referendum passing was the collapse of the “Tripartite”, an alliance of Scotland's three largest Separatist and Federalist parties, the SNP, RISE and Scottish Social Democrats that had all kept an uneasy peace for the course of the referendum. Some coalition of the three tripartite parties ruled every province in Scotland and were a staple of Scottish politics. Now with the referendum over and a parliamentary election months away the knives were truly out. Harvie especially was keen to distance RISE from it’s former allies, claiming in his victory speech that Scotland had voted “As a Nation for change, far away from the cosy establishment politics of the past '. Harvie would criticise the “Home-rule” and “vassal-like” ambitions of the other two former parties of the Tripartite, likely to be his main rivals for Scotland's Premiership.
Unionists, especially the Scottish branch of the National Party were dreading the parliamentary elections, many saw it as likely to be a referendum on Hague’s premiership and ongoing austerity politics, both incredibly unpopular north of Hadrian’s Wall. Whilst officials in Whitehall saw both the SNP and Social Democrats as workable partners, who both accepted the Brussels's bailout settlement, they were becoming increasingly worried of a strong performance by RISE or the Worker’s Party, who had both seen sharp upticks in the polls. Whilst most expected the SNP to win the election, having twice as many Westminster MPs as RISE, the result was no-longer a foregone conclusion.
RISE had found new life under Harvie's leadership
There was also the issue of other parts of Britain; Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall and to a lesser extent Yorkshire had all been lobbying for increased distance from Westminster. Losing Scotland’s tax revenue would be a huge blow for the Treasury in the face of bailout payments, and Chancellor Bob Stewart warned the United Kingdom’s central income could be “salami sliced away” by other regions seeking autonomy, leading to more regions claiming responsibility of their full tax base, rather than London being able to choose how much grant they gave. Whilst Scotland, sparsely populated and ravaged by conflict, had been a net loss for the Treasury, if some of the wealthier southern provinces, or god-forbid London demanded autonomy, the Royal Coffers could soon be running on empty.
“The European Union is not the only multinational polity whose unity is threatened by the Eurozone crisis. Austerity policies combined with the lack of fiscal autonomy, are adding fuel to separatist movements. Clumsy handling of the crisis might tip the scales in the direction of separatism. But, a creative solution to current problems might put Britain on sounder fiscal footing, while facilitating state unity. London should consider granting Wales and Northern Ireland fiscal autonomy. In the long term, this would ensure that Wales and Northern Ireland would fund their own policies. Regions with full control over their own finances tend to be more frugal than those dependent on central governments. Such extension of autonomy would take the wind out of the economic argument in favour of Celtic separatism.” - Fiscal crisis and the Balkanization of Britain, Lecture by Eve Hepburn, London School of Economics (2013)
Conservatives worried this was the first step towards the end of the union