Deleted member 169412
The Express is TTL's version of El Alcázar - a really hardline paper that supported the coup d'etat in 2009.
"A Very British Transition" - A Post-Junta Britain TL
- Thread starter powerab
- Start date
With the SDP'S polling numbers dropping dramatically, who's picking up support from them? The SA has their hands dipped in the tax hikes and spending cuts so I can't really see them doing too well out of this. Given the juntist politics in Britain I can't really see working class SDP voters defecting to something like the NNP, so maybe the greens?
Maybe Reform would be able to shear off a percentage point or two? Feels like they’ve faded into the background after their launch, honestly.
Deleted member 169412
I don't know - Golden Dawn did do very well in Greece during the recession.
I don’t know, Greens have IOTL a large urban-high educated base and TTL Britain is a poorer country, I don’t see many successful ecological movement in Eastern Europe (or Spain, although Portugal seems different). I suspect SA could make a comeback after a bad showing at the next election and a change of leadership (Meacher had health problems and Diane Abbot is the next in line). Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish regionalists could take a piece too. Far-right could do it too, maybe NNP or a new political party, maybe led by Farage after splitting from Nationals. Reform could take something but marginally and maybe some local parties (in Cornwall and Yorkshire for example) could break on provincial level. The Women’s Equality Party could maybe steal some working class voters too.
Yeah, I thought some minor and regional parties might make up the loss, and I agree on the SA point they will probably make a comeback after a bad election.
The reason I thought the greens may take some working class vote is for the leftists anti-austerity message and them having their hands clean from Sugar's budget.
The reason I didn't see the working class vote going to the NNP is because of the pro vs anti junta division. I believe it has been stated before that there are nationalist working class voters around, but they already vote national or NNP. So especially with the recent coup attempt I imagine the working class voters who vote SDP would be quite socialist and wouldn't jump to a right wing populist.
My view of this definitely has an Irish/Northern Irish skew, so I may be overestimating the importance of history on the electorate.
The current UK Polling Report Average as of April 2011 (different from 2009 results) is as follows:
- National Party - 49%
- Social Democratic Party - 32%
- Socialist Alternative - 6%
- Reform Party - 4%
- Scottish National Party - 3%
- Plaid Cymru - 1%
- RISE - 1%
- Other - 4%
There are some working class National/NNP voters, mostly the rural and small-town working class, farmhands, fencers etc. But this has a huge geographic divide, there's almost no working class National supporters in places like Liverpool and East London.
But mostly SDP voters are moving towards National, especially middle-class swing voters who don't want a general in charge but do want "stronger leadership". Hague has done a lot of work to dump National's image and make the party a palatable choice.
Chapter 60: Outrage
Britain's young had helped stop a coup, now they wanted more
“In London, some 80,000 protesters occupied a main square. Others gathered in Birmingham, Liverpool and Nottingham. The protesters are angry with the government's economic policies and the country's high unemployment. Police had ordered those camped out in London to leave by Sunday. But, as the ban came into effect at midnight, the crowds started cheering and police did not move in. The protest began six days ago in London's Lombard Street as a spontaneous sit-in by young Brits frustrated at 45% youth unemployment. The crowd camping out in the square overnight grew and the protest has spread to other cities across the country. According to the BBC, a total of some 200,000 protesters has gathered across the UK, including Sheffield, Bristol, Glasgow and Leicester.” - UK protesters defy ban with anti-government rallies, CNN News Bulletin
The counter-coup in 2009, the general strike, and countless protests over the last few weeks. The tension on the streets of Britain had been growing for months. Britain’s youth especially were feeling abandoned by the political class. Despite the fact youth unemployment was well over 40%, young people saw the SDP and Alternative, parties overwhelmingly supported by the young, pushing through austerity policies and cutting back on the state. This wasn’t the first time Britain’s youth had been abandoned by the political establishment, during 2009 it was overwhelmingly students that faced down the military and Civil Assistance rioters on Britain's streets.
In May 2011, the tension would snap, over 180,000 people, overwhelmingly young, took to the streets of London, and other cities up and down the country. In London the protesters would occupy Lombard Street, famed for its connection to the banking industry launching a peaceful sit-in bringing the whole street to a halt. The police responded poorly, charging the protesters and in the scuffle bins were set alight and shop windows were broken. By the end of the day over 40 people had been injured, including seven police officers, and 140 people were in prison. Despite this the protests remained on Lombard Street, pitching tents and singing songs.
The Lombard Street protesters and others partaking in direct action in other cities became known as the “Outrage Movement”. Inspired by other youth protests like the Arab Spring or Occupy Wall Street movements. Predominantly organised through new forms of social media such as Twitter, organisers were able to summon huge crowds at a moments notice, with very little time for police to react. The police would clear protesters from one street, only for a new camp to materialise the next borough over. Protests and nighttime camp outs occurred in 42 towns and cities, from Birmingham to Swindon. Many of these camps would last for weeks, organising themselves into mini-communities with cleaning, banner making and even live music. Such was the extent of support for the Outrage Movement that some small business would deliver food to the camping protesters.
Some called it the Second British Revolution
“A youth-led rebellion is spreading across Europe as a new generation of protesters takes possession of squares in cities around the UK. Protests are also planned in Italy, where the tag #italianrevolution is a trend on Twitter. Plans have been announced for a piazza occupation in Florenceon Thursday night. In London demonstrators have refused to budge from the central Trafalgar Square despite a police charge on Tuesday night. Now they have occupied a quarter of the square, covering it with tarpaulins and tents, setting up kitchens and tapping at laptops. Similar scenes were being played out in Birmingham, where protesters held a Argentinian-style pan-bashing protest. "Everyone is here for their own reasons," said Louis Paterson, 20, an anthropology student who was handing out flyers in Victoria Square.” - UK rallies against cuts and corruption spread, Elizabeth Flock, Washington Post (2011)
Several of the protesters would wear stamps on their lapels. This was a homage to the General Strike of 2003, originally organised by Britain’s postal workers, folks supportive of the strike would wear stamps in a show of solidarity. #BritishRevolution would trend on Twitter. Britain had already seen a regime collapse eight years earlier, could it happen again? International press would flock to London as the Outrage Movement proved to be one of the largest direct action organisations in recent memory. Der Spiegel noted the young Brits organising the protests as the “Facebook Generation”, in opposition to the top-down organising of the traditional left. Whilst the Hill-Norton Government had been brought down by the organising of union barons and communist party bosses, the Johnson administration faced much more dangerous disorganised protests.
As the occupations wore on, London increasingly struggled to operate. Chancellor Alan Sugar ended up having to sleep one night in the Treasury after Outragers chained themselves around the building, refusing to let anyone leave. Armed Forces Day was cancelled out of concerns for the security of the Queen. Clashes between police and protests continued to escalate as police tactics to remove protesters became increasingly violent. One clash in Trafalgar Square was particularly nasty, with nearly 80 people being hospitalised as the police used dogs and water cannons. The heavy-handed approach of Met Commissioner Stephen House, a veteran of the Scottish Conflict, led some MPs to demand his resignation.
Outrage managed to shut down the Commons for a day
In response to the Battle of Trafalgar, Outrage called for a blockade of the House of Commons. Several thousand protests would surround the Palace of Westminster, as well as other estate buildings such as Portcullis House and the Norman Shaw Buildings. Riot police were deployed to escort MPs into the Commons. Some MPs were jostled and egged as they made their way into the Commons, with Industry Secretary Ed Balls being punched on the nose and knocked to the ground. Johnson had to make the journey to Parliament via police helicopter out of fear for his safety and over 100 MPs missed the Parliamentary session due to the protests. In the Commons Johnson slammed the Outrage protesters as conducting an “attack on democracy” by preventing MPs from going about their business.
Whilst the violence in Westminster had been a black-spot on the mostly peaceful events of the Outrage Movement, they certainly showed a new way of doing politics. In camps outside banks and government departments, protesters organised people’s assemblies. In the overwhelmingly differential and hierarchical culture of British society, these young people organising themselves using mutual aid and social media was completely revolutionary. In every major British City there was an Outrage Movement. One photo went viral on social media showing three old ladies in Tunbridge Wells sipping gin and “occupying” the high-street outside their local Barclays - viva la revolution.
“A group of fourteen police trod along a street in the centre of London, on a tense day marked by the peaceful protests of the Outrage Movement. The video of the fourteen police officers, and a 17 year old woman was filmed by a witness who followed the police and captured the events on a mobile telephone. The footage, three minutes long, shows the determined advance of the police officers to the area where the protesters are amassed. A young woman confronted the police, asking, 'What’s happening?', to which one officer responded with a direct punch to her face. The woman began to shout, and while another protester tried to pull her away, the police hit her various times with their truncheons. The police then turned on another young man who was taking photos from a few metres away.” - Graphic Video Of Police Brutality Angers Protesters In London, NPR News Report (2011)
The boys in blue weren't holding back
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The UK is readying herself for the rise of a politician with a very long ponytail...
Outrage Movement sounds like a British version of Indignados, a similar popular reaction against a post-authoritarian old establishment motivated by a deep financial crisis and austerity measures. I’m pondering if this will led to a British Podemos (or a British Five Stars Movement) too.
Well, the difference here is that the British far-left already has a relevant party representing their interests, creating another would seem kind of counterproductive for their interests i guess
I'm honestly impressed with Johnson.
He seems to have a talent for making enemies on both sides of the aisle.
Not strong enough on the Fascists, even after a coup attempt, which pisses off both sides, and now the economy/assholes getting really tired of him making promises and not fulfilling them.
He seems to have a talent for making enemies on both sides of the aisle.
Not strong enough on the Fascists, even after a coup attempt, which pisses off both sides, and now the economy/assholes getting really tired of him making promises and not fulfilling them.
Yeah, there's a Madrid reference that leaked through in the opening quote, but apart from that - definitely having vibes of that.
Deleted member 169412
I thought that
Given that even OTL, the BNP did pretty well in places like Barking, I'm pretty surprised that their equivalents haven't done well there.
As I've said, poor economic conditions make people turn to alternatives - be they on the left or right - and realistically speaking RISE and the NNP will do well out of this recession for the same reason Syriza and Golden Dawn did well in Greece around this period.
The NNP and Civil Assistance are strong in areas like Barking, but the National Party certainly isn't - similar how in OTL many BNP voters would never support the Tories
Chapter 61: Yma O Hyd
Plaid's populist wing was in ascendance
“Dafydd Iwan is rather different from most Plaid politicians. He thinks the crash of 2008 should have "resulted in the rejection of capitalism and many of its basic economic and political assumptions". He is also a proud republican, who refuses to attend the kind of official events at which the Queen turns up. If any of this chimes with your general view of what's wrong with the world, it's fair to say that you'd like him. If Iwan pursued his political career in the SDP, his opinions might ensure she was kept safely on the fringes. But in his home country, he is a high-profile voice – and the current favourite to take over the leadership of Plaid Cymru, should Jill Evans fall. Iwan believes in Welsh independence. And with the future of the union being argued over as never before, Iwan thinks there is an unprecedented opening.” - Could Plaid Cymru Split?, John Harris, The Guardian (2011)
Yma O Hyd is a lovely Welsh folk song, translating roughly to “we’re still here”. The patriotic song succinctly described Wales’ role in the transition. Whilst Scotland had been the Junta’s naughty child, throwing toys out the pram and bombs at Dad, Wales had been relatively tame. The Welsh Freedom Army or WFA was a lot smaller and a lot less successful than either the SNLA or IRA, most Welsh resistance to the Junta took place peacefully, through civil rights marches and minor acts of dissent. Unlike in Scotland,, the Welsh Nationalists managed to hold together politically after the transition, with Plaid Cymru acting as an all-encompassing force for Welsh Nationalism, reaching from Conservatives to Socialists, devolutionists to separatists and everything in between.
The political wing of the WFA was the Welsh Socialist Republican Movement, or Mudiad for short. Mudiad had failed to break through on the National stage and held only a handful of seats on the provincial level. Thus, with nowhere else to go many Welsh socialists had joined Plaid. This had always been a marriage of inconvenience, with Plaid’s liberal and socialist wings constantly scraping for dominance. Plaid’s left had mounted an outspoken campaign against the party supporting the Johnson administration, arguing the party had to be an independent socialist voice for Wales, not propping up a Westminster Government. As eagle-eye readers will know the liberals won out and Plaid gave their support to the SDP.
Plaid was a big-tent party, some could say too big
The most popular version of Yma O Hyd was performed by Dafydd Iwan, a Welsh folk singer, turned imprisoned dissident, turned Plaid MP. Iwan had roundly been seen as the leader of Plaid’s left and had been one of the party’s loudest voices against Sugar’s austerity budgets and the pathetic devolution deal struck up by the celtic parties. As the Outraged protests raged in the country, Iwan had been a leading voice at camps in Cardiff and Newport criticising the leadership of both the SDP and Plaid Cymru parties for selling out their voters. Iwan and his followers would increasingly clash with Plaid leader Jill Evans who had brought the party closer and closer to the SDP. Personal relations in Plaid would continue to break down and relations between the liberal and socialist wings would become more and more bitter.
“Plaid Cymru leader Jill Evans has denied reports of a split in the party following criticism of her leadership and policy. MP Dafydd Iwan faces internal disciplinary action for questioning Plaid's election campaign priorities. But he won the backing of his local group members at a meeting on Tuesday. Ms Evans said there had been disagreements with one AM but she "would not call that a split". Speaking at a meet-the-public event in Colwyn Bay, Conwy, on Thursday she said: "I don't accept there are divisions in Plaid Cymru." Following Tuesday's meeting to discuss Iwan's future, one party member said the MP would "have to make compromises". The meeting was called following his criticism of Ms Evan's leadership over the past few months. The former folk singer had attacked his party's confidence and supply pact with the SDP.” - Plaid Cymru leader Jill Evans denies party split, BBC Wales News Bulletin (2011)
In a public meeting in Cardiff, Iwan announced he would be leaving Plaid Cyrmu and setting up a brand new left-wing Welsh nationalist party. Iwan was joined by two other Plaid MPs, Leanne Wood and Ron Davies, as well a handful of provincial deputies. The new party would be dubbed “Forward Wales” and Iwan promised it would be a pluralistic force in Welsh politics, distant from the violence of the WFA and other paramilitary nationalist organisations. Nearly 6,000 people joined Iwan at the party launch, his celebrity status helping to propel Forward Wales into regional papers and the national spotlight. Forward Wales benefited from Iwan’s personal popularity and his huge name recognition, but this also led the party to accusations of being a one man band.
Some polls showed support for Welsh independence as high as 60%
The Plaid split was further proof of the established party system splintering. Both the SDP and National were facing further divisions of their own, and they feared if Forward Wales was a success it could set a dangerous example to factions within their own party. The Forward Wales split also created a conundrum for the Socialist Alternative, if Forward Wales could walk away from the Johnson Government, then why couldn’t they? But all in all it was a numbers game, the only number that mattered, the Parliamentary majority, went from five to two. The Government was two bullets, or one well placed grenade, away from losing it’s majority.“Can things get any worse for Alan Johnson, Britain's beleaguered prime minister? Austerity measures, labour reform and strikes have taken their toll. Opinion polls show support for his SDP plummeting to 29%, while unemployment, at over 20%, remains twice the euro-zone average. Speculation is rife over who will succeed Mr Johnson as party leader, and whether he will step down before or after the next general election. The question now is not whether Mr Johnson will go, but when. Will he lead the party to electoral defeat in 2013 and fall on his sword afterwards, or will he stand down before, making way for a fresh leader? The National Party's lead in polls has risen to 14 points, nearly enough to give it an absolute majority in parliament. Mr Johnson has said, privately, that he will make the decision next year, according to the Sun.” - Johnson’s Endgame, The Economist (2011)
The battle for Johnson's job was already commencing behind the scenes
Not to mention National's own problems, as well. Still, if modelling the SDP on the UDC (and hence Johnson on Adolfo Suarez) is any indication, then it won't be long before the SDP falls apart (however, considering National's own troubles, it won't be a simple SDP-National merger that would leave SA as Britain's PSOE equivalent, as that would be too obvious and clashes with merging in 21st-century problems). As it seems National is also trying to pivot towards shedding its own Junta-era past, then some elements of both National and the SDP could form a new DA-esque party as a successor to the former UK Liberals (and One Nation wing of the Tories) - but what that leaves other elements in both National and the SDP that do not want that would be an open question.
The existence of the SA would dramatically change the SDP's internal divisions since the far-left and left of the party will be deprived of many of it's prominent members (Diane Abbott, Jeremy Corbyn, etc), so the party would likely stay more towards the center.
On the other hand, with another party to its left there would be a decent argument within the SDP that a swing to the left would be good for the party. If they could stamp out the SA before it can fully shed itself of the paramilitary reputation, then they could unite the left-wing vote behind them and let Reform be a balance of power party in the center.