A Shift in Priorities

[rast]

The School of the Nation

Events in the Americas didn’t find much attention in Russia. One had other and more pressing problems. Prices were going up as demand was growing and foodstuffs had to be imported because the archaic Russian agricultural sector did neither produce sufficient quantities nor acceptable quality – and the transport sector often failed to deliver in time what was in demand.
Early April 1923 saw spring eventually taking hold in St. Petersburg. Ice breakers had already opened a shipping lane in the Gulf of Finland and the Kronstatdt Bay, and vessels from Sweden and Great Britain had been the first visitors to the habour after the ice period.
The citizens of ‘Piter’ – as the town was informally called – enjoyed the warmer weather and the certainty that the shift of the Russian capital to Moscow would take just another decade. St. Peterburg was an important industrial centre and had all the infrastructure to support a government – Moscow still was a heap of rubble, although the number of inhabitants there (mainly construction workers) was said to already exceed the number of wolves in the same area.
And who knew? Once that busybody Matutin lost his office in the next election, another Prime Minister might decide to keep the capital in ‘Piter’.

Russian Prime Minister Igor F. Matutin had chosen Monday, April 16th, 1923, for an address to the nation. As wireless transmission was not yet an option in Russia, he had asked the national and international press to his his official residence, the Anichkov Palace. In presence of War Minister Boris V. Savinkov and Chief of Staff and peacetime Commander-in-Chief General Mikhail N. Tukhachevsky, he expounded:

“You will remember that – in my inaugural address – I promised to reduce the Russian Armed Forces. Now, that the Japanese invaders have been beaten and chased away, I am going to keep this promise.
Russia needs modern and proficient forces on land, in the air and on sea. To achieve proficiency, the armed forces will become professional services. Ordinary soldiers will have to volunteer for at least eight years of service. NCOs shall engage for at least twelve, and officers for twenty years. Special schools and acadamies will be provided to train NCOs and officers in science and technology.
The future army will consist of ten army corps only. The total strength of the Russian Army will not exceed 560,000 men. In addition we will have a navy of 65,000 and an air force of 55,000 men.

Nevertheless, Russia needs the ability to levy a sizeable force in short time, should we be attacked by foreign aggressors. To this end, every ablebodied young Russian between the age of 17 and 25 years will attend one year of basic training with the armed forces. After this basic training, the young men can return home – and will not be called for reserve exercises other than in a state of national emergency.

The laws to regulate all this will be passed through the All Russian Duma in the next week. The representatives of the Krestyanina Partiya have already agreed to them. They see them as a great step forward in the right direction, freeing a huge number of young farmers from long-time service and allowing them to return home after only one year of basic military formation.

The professional armed forces will be open to everyone who fulfils the requirements, there will be no privileges and preferences for certain groups of the society. Russia is going to have modern and technically progressive armed forces that can stand up to every international comparison.”

What Matutin did not say was that the recruiting guidelines for the professional armed forces would automatically exclude all non-Russians, such as Jews, Germans, Poles and Muslims. The various minorities could serve their term of basic training and return home thereafter. The professional armed forces would be made up from Russians, White Russians and Cossacks exclusively.
What he also didn’t say was that armaments policy would shift to a clear ‘Russia First’, with Russian companies copying and developing further the existing hardware (which was mainly German). One was content to accept initial delays in this process, but in the long run dependency on foreign deliveries had to be abolished.

Matutin had no clear concept yet how to deal with Manchukuo. After the costly Second Russo-Japanese War, a further armed conflict was beyond Russia’s capacity for the time being. And the important restructuring of the armed forces – which was to bring all peasants’ sons under military influence for twelve months and thus accustom them to modern civilisation – would not allow starting another war for several years as well.
But with their Japanese protectors utterly beaten and humiliated, the rulers of Manchukuo were experiencing a low tide in new immigrants anyway. The attraction of the new entity to Chinese citizens had fallen considerably; Manchukuo no longer was regarded as a new bonanza – in people’s mind it now had become a place where one could lose everything very quickly.

 

[rast]

The Wilhelmstraße World View

The engagement of Crown Prince Wilhelm of Prussia and Princess Giovanna of Savoy had taken place on Easter Monday, April 2nd, 1923, in Rome. It had only been an intimate family celebration without much ado.
Emperor Wilhelm III. and his wife had also taken the opportunity for a meeting (the word ‘audience’ was strictly avoided in official German press releases) with the Holy Father, Pope Pius XI.
Thereafter, the Imperial family, accompanied by Giovanna and her entourage, had moved to Sicily in order to spend another fortnight of holidays. If Greece proper was still inaccessible even for royal ‘tourists’, Wilhelm III. at least wanted to show the remains of Magna Graecia and its cultural achievements to his offspring.
Although the boys – Louis Ferdinand, aged sixteen, and Hubertus, aged fourteen – showed more interest in classy Italian girls than classic Greek ruins (the oldest, Wilhelm, had enough to do with Giovanna, and Friedrich Georg and the girls were still too young to really appreciate old rubble other than as playground), the enterprise was rated as successful. One had delved again in first class Italian hospitality and food – and had won the hearts of the Sicilians by openly admiring their beautiful island and their culture (which was of Greek origin, but who cared?).

Now, on April 19th, Wilhelm III. was back in Berlin and had lunch with Chancellor Erzberger, who appraised him of the international situation.
“Inside the CPMZ, things are developing steadily and peacefully. Now, that the new socialist Czech government, with the consent of the conservative Slovaks, has brought their country into the market zone, and the Dutch government has agreed to accede in autumn, we’ll have a continuous tariff area from the Channel to the Russian and Greek borders and the Caspian Sea. – Denmark and Norway are still hesitant, but their economies aren’t really important. We can do very well without them.”
“What about the quarrels between Hungarians and Croats?”
“Not really a serious crisis. There are eleven million of Hungarians and only three and a half million Croats. Only if the Croats succeed in assimilating the Bosnian Muslims and the surviving Serbs can they hope to acquire sufficient importance to consider a secession. This question may become virulent in the next generation, but not now. That the Croats have gained more influence on Hungarian policy making is a good thing for us; it muffles Hungarian hubris.”

“How do you estimate Russian affairs? – This Matutin character looks rather anti-German to me.”
“More pro-Russian than really anti-German. – I can understand him. The Whites only won the Civil War because of our massive support, their present constitution has virtually been dictated by us, and without our overwhelming economic support, they’d still wallow in the mud and eat cuttins. – Matutin just tries to give the state a Russian soul and a Russian face again. The Transbaikal War has raised their national confidence, the Siberian Socialist Republic has successfully been re-integrated into Russia, now, they try to find their own way how to shape the future. We can just remain relaxed and watch what they are doing. – We have pushed them so far to the east that they can no longer threaten us directly, even if they should develop into a hostile direction.”

“And England?”
“To be honest, I’m glad they have switched to a socialist government. The pig-headed Tories with their mantra: “It’s all Germany’s fault!” and their trench mentality were a real nuisance. The new government has a realistic outlook and is adjusting their policies to the realities created by the Great War and the successive rapid de-colonisation. – And they’re healing their economy and improving social conditions. I think they’ll manage to lead England over into a modern state, which still is a major power, but no longer thinks it is a world dominating empire and has the right to wantonly manipulate affairs on the continent.”

“What about France?”
“Well, still our problem child. – Economically, most of France belongs to German owners, but politically they’re completely opposed. There’s no hope that this might improve within the next generation. Nevertheless, they have a stable – though slightly repressive – society and are not crying for revenge. Also, the loss of Alsace and German Lorraine seems to be generally accepted by now. – There’s a certain rapprochement with Spain, the two countries have signed a political and economic treaty of cooperation. They might also intervene when affairs in Portugal get really messy. – No German interests are at stake there.”

“The war in Mexico?”
“Normally, after their behaviour in the Great War, we have no reason to be overly friendly to the US. But in this case, with the Mexican leadership composed of an infamous bandit and murderer, a former Bolshevik war lord and mass murderer, our ‘dear’ communist heroine Luxemburg and that American anarchy queen Goldman, my government has chosen to support the US.
The US blockade now isolates all of Mexico and the Central American states down to Panama. We think that after their conscript army becomes available, the US will be able to conquer all of Mexico and excise this anarcho-communist ulcer. – After that, they will possibly roll back the revolutions in the Central American states and the Caribbean and install puppet regimes of their liking.
As long as the US are respecting our zone of influence in Africa, there’s no reason to challenge them in the Americas. As long as our trade with the South American countries is not handicapped, the US can do what they want. – Brazil seems to have a stable revolutionary government right now, which is being reported as seriously preparing new elections with universal franchise. Argentina, Uruguay and Chile, our major trading partners apart from Brazil, seem to be stable democracies with sound economies.”

“And the rest of the world?”
“Your Majesty, the proceedings in Asia are of no concern to my government. Although we have an advisory mission in southern China, we regard this as an inner-Chinese affair. – There’s a certain tendency in Japan to build a market zone of their own in East Asia, but our economists tell me that currently German profits are not at stake.
No, we’ll just sit and watch. This is a game between the US, Japan, China and the Indian Federation - and possibly Russia, not our’s.”

 

[rast]

The League of Conservative Gentlemen

One thing that Henri Philippe Pétain, Generalissimo of the French Armed Forces and intimate advisor to French Prime Minister Maurras, and Miguel Primo de Rivera, Caudillo of Spain, had in common was their inclination to womanising. For Pétain, who already had reached his 67th year, this perhaps was of greater importance than for Primo de Rivera, who, aged 53, could still be regarded in his ‘best’ years.
When hosting Pétain, an occurrence that happened quite frequently, Primo de Rivera therefore took great pain that suitable ‘ladies’ were selected to delight his French friend.
Pétain liked his trips to Spain very much. Although strictly Catholic and a dauntless supporter of Maurras’ course of national consolidation on the basis of faith and returning to the virtues that once had made France the foremost nation in Europe, he somehow missed the fun-loving side of Catholicism in today’s France.
Primo de Rivera gladly provided this fun-loving side for his friend Philippe. His state, run by the military and the police, had no trouble in furnishing beautiful fincas rústicas (manors), the best food and vine – and the most docile pretty ladies, all this garnished by Gypsy musicians, Flamenco dancers, horse parades and an occasional corrida (bullfight). Even the religious side was taken care of, there was no problem in having a bishop or even a cardinal conduct a splendid private service for Pétain and Primo de Rivera – and to have the complete staff of a monastery attend in order to provide a festive environment.

Pétain, in turn, influenced Charles Maurras, whose Action Française had won the 1922 elections with comfortable majority (although some voices rumoured about ballot rigging).
It was not so that Maurras had to be convinced the hard way, the authoritarian rule of Primo de Rivera was much to his taste, as were the forceful suppression of Socialists, Communists, Anarchists and Separatists, and the adherence to the true faith.
What followed were a treaty of political and economic cooperation, creating the Latin Economic Union (LEU) – or ULÉ (Union Latine Économique) in French – and a secret treaty of mutual military cooperation between France and Spain.

Then Primo de Rivera took the liberty to introduce a Portuguese gentleman, José Augusto Alves Roçadas, the former commander of the Portuguese Corps in France during the Great War, just returned from his term as Governor of Mozambique and spokesman of the Portuguese right wing opposition, into the club.
Pétain, who already knew Alves Roçadas and welcomed him as one of the same spirit, responded by bringing with him a young Italian gentleman, a certain Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini, a former Socialist, who had seen the light of truth and converted to a right wing authoritarian. Convicted in Italy for forming the ultra-right ‘Fasci Italiani di Combattimento’ (Italian Combat Squads) and inciting them to murder, Mussolini – and some of his followers – had been granted asylum in France. Mussolini promised to overthrow the godless liberal-socialist government of Giovanni Giolitti, which had had been formed again after the 1922 elections, and to lead Italy to her true destination: The renaissance of the Roman Empire – of course the Catholic version thereof (he added, well knowing the mindset of his new ‘friends’).

While any Italian adventure required some time to mature, the widespread dissatisfaction with ‘democratic missmanagement’ in Portugal could quickly and easily be exploited. In May 1923, supported by France and Spain, the military, led by General Alves Roçadas, seized power and installed another authoritarian system.

 

[Kara Iskandar]

Ahaha nice to see that France is back on the European stage.
I was just wondering about the name of the union with Spain, "West European Trade Union" it sounds a bit dull to me (too bureaucratic I would say).
May I propose something like "L'Union Latine" or the "Latin Union" in English.
Maurras was after all a proponent of the "Latin legacy" of France, as opposed to the "Germanic barbarians".
Also, well done with Mussolini.

 

[rast]

Thanks. Good idea - already incorporated.

 

[Kara Iskandar]

You're welcome!

 

[rast]

Advisors and Friends

Although Luigi Rizzo, Lieutenant-Commander of the Royal Italian Navy, had been a participant of the Italo-Turkish War and the Great War, or perhaps even also because of this, he had soon earned not only the respect but also the friendship of his Ottoman colleagues, whom he was to train in the employment of small fast torpedo boats.
The Ottoman naval officers, long accustomed and silently infuriated by the insolence and arrogance of their German allies, really appreciated to have to deal with civilised Italians. What a refreshing experience to have these kind people – Rizzo and his men – teach them the use of their new equipment.

The MAS (Motoscafi Armati Silurante – Armed Torpedo Speedboats) were a weapon developed by the Italians during the Great War – and today were one of Italy’s export hits in the Mediterranean. Hungary, Bulgaria, Albania, the Ottoman Empire, Tunisia, and Morocco all had bought them, but only the Turks had also asked for a training mission (the other nations usually sent some of their naval officers to Italy for instruction).
The Ottomans had acquired quite a fleet of them, 244 deadly little ships, which had the advantage of not needing three or more years to be completed, like the huge men of war, but came out of the Italian shipyards within few months.

Having lost the Dodecanese Islands and Libya to the Ottomans with the Treaty of Zürich had been a severe blow for Italian pride, and Rizzo never made any excuses for being an ardent Italian patriot. But today, the Ottoman officers amusedly caroused about that, calling it the ‘good ol’ time’ – before the Greeks tried to take over and it really became a bloody mess. After all, the Italians had behaved like gentlemen – at least most of the time and most of them...

It was not so that Rizzo was an easy going trainer, quite on the contrary. He was a keen instructor, but he never made the Ottomans feel like fresh recruits in the grandiose German manner. He treated them like the equals they were, chatted with them (something the Germans never did, they only barked orders and expected immediate meticulous execution) and took the time to have a coffee (Turkish Coffee normally isn’t an Italian’s first choice, but with sufficient sugar it could be made drinkable) and a cigarette with them.
The result was a boost in motivation for the Ottomans. No longer feeling like little childs being regimented by their German governesses, they started to experiment with their equipment – and thus to learn by trial and error.
This didn’t happen without some boats being lost due to accidents (something that would have driven the Germans nuts), but weren’t there enough of them?

The Aegean Sea west of Smyrna soon became a very busy place with dozens of ’şimşek deniz motoru’ (lightning power boats) fanning out for training missions. Two destroyers and the battle cruiser ‘Yavuz Sultan Selim’ served as exercise quarries, providing their crews with the opportunity to learn anti-MAS – or anti-ŞDM – manoeuvres.
Rizzo and his Ottoman counterpart, Ahmet Saffet Bey, of HMS Goliath and Georgios Averof fame, promoted to the rank of Albay (Naval Captain) after the successful annihilation of the Greek convoy near Saria Island, also took great care to overcome the greatest weakness of the Ottoman Navy: Lacking technical understanding resulting in faulty maintenance.
Already the Germans had noted this weakness during the Great War, and had attributed it to the workings of the British Naval Mission, which – in their opinion – had done everything to neutralise the Ottoman Navy for the anticipated conflict. The Germans had solved the problem by inserting German technical personnel everywhere.
Rizzo and Saffet Bey tackled it by technical tuition and a system of rewards. The crew with the best result in a technical inspection would get special privileges, like extra leave, extra rations and the right to lead their unit's formation in a parade. Crew members, who passed technical inspections with good notes a second and third time, would be promoted.
But taking the time and instructing the men about natural sciences and technical correlations was perhaps the most important step taken. Many sailors had never before heard about such things – and once they had understood the importance of maintenance they – in typical fashion for new acolytes – took the greatest care in fostering their boats to technical peak form.

The Ottoman leaders had decided not to invest in a large battle fleet. They would have the four new Bayern Class ships – Kemal Reis, Müezzinzade Ali Pasha, Gedik Ahmed Pasha, and Gazi Chelebi – as nucleus of a small fleet designed to neutralise Greece and to contribute to a combined Central Powers fleet in the Mediterranean. However, for the defence of their long coast lines they would rely on the ŞDM, mine layers and submarines. A design job for a submarine specially adapted for operations in littoral waters had gone to the German Naval Constriction Bureau – and a number of boats developed from the successful UC II and UB III types of the Great War were already nearing completion at the shipyards of AG Weser, Blohm & Voss, Vulcan and Germaniawerft.

 

[Archangel]

The League of Conservative Gentlemen

...
Then Primo de Rivera took the liberty to introduce a Portuguese gentleman, José Augusto Alves Roçadas, the former commander of the Portuguese Corps in France during the Great War, just returned from his term as Governor of Mozambique and spokesman of the Portuguese right wing opposition, into the club.
Pétain, who already knew Alves Roçadas and welcomed him as one of the same spirit, responded by bringing with him a young Italian gentleman, a certain Benito Amilcare Andrea Mussolini, a former Socialist, who had seen the light of truth and converted to a right wing authoritarian. Convicted in Italy for forming the ultra-right ‘Fasci Italiani di Combattimento’ (Italian Combat Squads) and inciting them to murder, Mussolini – and some of his followers – had been granted asylum in France. Mussolini promised to overthrow the godless liberal-socialist government of Giovanni Giolitti, which had had been formed again after the 1922 elections, and to lead Italy to her true destination: The renaissance of the Roman Empire – of course the Catholic version thereof (he added, well knowing the mindset of his new ‘friends’).

While any Italian adventure required some time to mature, the widespread dissatisfaction with ‘democratic missmanagement’ in Portugal could quickly and easily be exploited. In May 1923, supported by France and Spain, the military, led by General Alves Roçadas, seized power and installed another authoritarian system.

Good (and unusual) choice of Alves Roçadas for Portugal! He's not usually mentioned in ATLs.
Keep it up, rast!

 

[rast]

Learn Politeness from the Impolite
(Egyptian Proverb)

May 1st, 1923, was the day the Egyptian government had chosen to announce the nationalisation of the Suez Canal.
Formally under the suzerainty of the Ottoman Empire and the guidance of Emir Halil Kut Pasha, Egyptian affairs were in reality run by Saad Zaghloul Pasha, the Za'im al-Umma (Leader) and Rayyes (Chief), and his cabinet.
Democratically elected (with qualified male suffrage) in October 1920, Zaghloul’s Wafd Party enjoyed the confidence of the nation – and never had left any doubt who really was in charge in Cairo.

But nationalising the Suez Canal was not something one did without intensive coordination. After all, the Sublime Porte – when taking over the protection of the canal from the British – had warranted the rights of the Suez Canal Company.
Revoking this warranty now, in the name of the Sublime Porte, had required quite a lot of meetings and talks in Istanbul – and the Four Pashas (Fevzi Pasha had taken the place of the late Kemal Pasha) only very reluctantly had agreed to listen to Zaghloul’s scheme.
Not that an armed intervention of the French and British, the shareholders of the Suez Canal Company, had to be feared, but the word of the Sublime Porte could not so easily be broken. Only if the present owners agreed would the Four Pashas consent to nationalisation.

The British Government, which in 1875 had appropriated the former Egyptian shares, was always looking for money in order to fund their expensive social programmes and did not represent a major obstacle. They said they would be happy to receive one quarter of the monthly revenues for the next fifty years without the necessity of own investment.

The French Government, the major shareholder of the Compagnie Universelle du Canal Maritime de Suez, turned out to be much more obstinate. Only after long term agreements about buying French products had been negotiated did they finally consent to be compensated with one third of the revenues for the next seventy years.
As a consequence, French companies would construct the Egyptian electrical power supply and telephone systems, provide the equipment for the Egyptian police, furnish the rolling stock for the Egyptian railways, build hotels and holyday resorts for the tourists (the number of which was rapidly increasing after the German archaeologist Ludwig Borchardt had discovered the tomb of Tutankhamun in March of 1922), supply all motor vehicles for the Egyptian governmental services, – and maintain the Suez Canal on behalf of the Egyptian state.

It was thus with the full consent of all involved that Zaghloul Pasha could proclaim that from now on and in all future the Suez Canal belonged to Egypt.
Actual control of the canal remained, however, as before in the hands of the Ottoman military, who did not answer to Cairo but only to Istanbul.

 

[bm79]

build hotels and holyday resorts for the tourists (the number of which was rapidly increasing after the German archaeologist Ludwig Borchardt had discovered the tomb of Tutankhamun in March of 1922)

A 1920s world-wide tour to the treasures of Tut's tomb, perhaps? Talk about a German PR boost. My mom still goes on about the OTL 1977 showing at the MoA here in New Orleans.

 

[rast]

If a person has ambition, things will be accomplished.
(Chinese Proverb)

Lieutenant General Max Bauer was extremely pleased with the deal he had struck with the personnel office of the German War Ministry. He could retain his position as military advisor to Cheng Jiongming as long as he wanted – and would be promoted to General of Artillery in due course.
Unwilling to return to the ‘narrowness’ of Germany and the ‘rigidity’ of the German Army, Bauer – with full support of Ambassador von Hintze – had lobbied for this solution since some time. Now, on May 3rd, 1923, he held the telegram confirming it in his hands. This provided him with ample time to achieve his goals in Guangzhou and China. He was 54 years old now, and not eligible for promotion to Colonel General within the next ten years.

The province of Guangdong had developed into the economic powerhouse of China, and the port of Guangzhou, its capital, certainly rivalled New York, London and Hamburg for importance as a port city.
But also in the political sphere, things were moving: In the neighbouring province of Guangxi, the New Guangxi Clique of war lords had been overthrown by popular insurgency and an elected civil provincial government established, which cooperated closely with Cheng Jiongming’s administration.
The provinces of Hunan and Jiangxi, to the north of Guangdong, had moved away from domination by the Zhili Clique and now leaned to Cheng Jiongming for support.
The coastal province of Fujian had slipped away from the Beiyang Government as well and was following Cheng Jiongming’s reforms. After all, the southern part of the province had been run by him between 1918 and 1920 – and many of his reforms from that time were still in effect.
In all, there now existed a economically and militarily strong southern group of provinces, which favoured democratic reforms and gradual development – and no longer was dominated by war lords.
The military backbone of this group was the Army of Guangdong, Bauer’s creation. And by Bauer’s insistence military training facilities had already been established in Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi and Fujian as well, and military equipment coming from the Guangdong factories helped to lift the forces of these provinces to modern standard.

Bauer himself had learned Chinese and could converse fluently in Mandarin and in Cantonese. This helped a lot and made it easier for Bauer to influence people. Currently, he was taking lessons in Japanese and Vietnamese, one never knew…

The factories in Guangdong, which had been founded by German companies after Bauer’s promotional campaign in early 1921, all had developed a Chinese face, and only insiders still knew that Krupp, Ehrhardt, Daimler, MAN, Fokker, AEG, Siemens and others were behind plants like Zhāoxiá (motor vehicles), Lìliang (railway locomotives and rolling stock) or Zhăngjìn (artillery and machine tools).
Yànzi Aeroplanes not only supplied combat aircraft to the air service, their Type 22 transporter was also popular with civilian air companies for moving passengers and freight (and certainly only incidentally bore a striking resemblance with the Junkers F13).
The US were also a major player in this field; especially Bethlehem Steel and General Electric were active in Guangzhou, building ships and electric equipment.
But the US were not concentrating on Guangdong, a lot of their investment also went to provinces still controlled by war lords. Bauer and Hintze had tried to convince the Americans to foster Cheng Jiongming only, who proposed a non-violent transformation of China into a modern society, but US investors apparently didn’t care much about this.
Bauer thought that it was stupid to pump money into structures that were rotten to the core. He was no special friend of democracy, but he could clearly see that Guangdong was moving forward, while the war lord areas at best stagnated – and in most cases deteriorated. They would be absorbed either by the Southern Coalition – or by Manchukuo.
After Matutin’s announcement about the restructuring of the Russian Army, things in Manchukuo had calmed down and immigration numbers were rising again. Bauer estimated that Manchukuo would eventually dominate the northern part of China, while Cheng Jiongming’s Southern Coalition would rule the south and the west.

 

[Bmao]

Nice update on China rast. By the way, do we know what is happening to our good old friends Chiang and Mao? Its right about this time in OTL that these two are starting to grow in importance, and obviously ITTL their roles would be different, but I'm wondering what will become of them.

Does the Chinese Communist Party exist or if it does because of the failure of the Bolsheviks in Russia it never really became prominent? Or perhaps the Chinese Communists of OTL, like Zhou En-Lai, Deng Xiaopeng and other talented individuals turn to a less radical form of socialism as the solution to China's problems? Would they end up joining with Cheng's version of the Kuomintang instead?

I think that even in this timeline, the Unification of mainland China is going to have to come violently. The warlords won't give up their stranglehold on power peacefully, and peasant rebellions can only do so much, so therefore Chen is going to have to pull off the equivalent of a Northern expedition sometime in the 20s. Also, Cheng can talk about democracy all he wants, but with such a small middle class, lack of infrastructure, uneducated peasants and very little experience with practicing democracy its gonna be extremely difficult. Even with all the German investment into these new factories, he'll have to rely on landed military types or the traditional scholarly elite to maintain his security and legitimacy for the time being, which in the long term is bad for democracy. It all comes down to the peasants. How is Cheng enacting these reforms, obviously for the peasants without angering the landlords?

Basically, what I'm saying is that even with all the German help and with all his pronouncements of democracy and non-violent solution of unifying China, it is going to be messy and will be bumps on the road, and probably a large-scale war as well.

Keep going with this TL rast, I've been loving it since day 1.

 

[rast]

Communism was never sparked in China ITTL, so our friends Mao, Zhou and Deng will have to look for other occupations.
Chiang is an ordinary officer in Cheng's army.

The Southern Coalition is rather losely knit, and not an instrument of power projection. Cheng is concentrating on Guangdong - and hoping that the example may spread by initiatives coming out of the other provinces.
I don't see him starting a war.

 

[rast]

Chafing with Impatience

It was one thing to organise the Mexican workers into a Soviet system, and quite another one to make them produce weapons for the war against the US – as Leon Trotsky soon had found out.
He had lined them up into a coherent work force and had seen that most of them were evacuated from the areas occupied by the Americans.
But it was beyond his ability to make them produce tanks and artillery. Even the errection of new production plants was beyond his horizon. He was an intellectual, not an engineer, and he had to concede that he had no clue about industrial production.
He wanted them to produce weapons, but he needed engineers and economists to tell the workers what to do exactly.
The Mexican engineers and economists, however, were not up to the task of starting production from scratch. They had managed to house the workers and their families in new settlements along the west coast of Mexico, but they had failed in establishing a coherent chain of manufacturing plants.
The Mondragón Rifle and machine guns could be produced as well as ammunition for them. Everything else turned out to be too complicated.

Fortunately, the French could help here. As the US blockade prevented shipment of large amounts of war material to Mexico, the French companies had supplied quite a number of their specialists.
These men had – during the Great War – helped to bring the French industry to war standard. They knew how to set up new production facilities and what was required to make them work.
Unfortunately, the process required time. One didn’t scoop sand from the strand and form it into a cannon. One needed machine tools, more machine tools – and a lot of expertise.
But while France had been able to rely on existing structures that supplied certain basics, most of these basics had to be produced in Mexico from scratch as well.
This required even more time.

Time was to one thing that Mexico didn’t have. The US conscript army was forming rapidly, and Trotsky thought that they would become operational by mid-1923.
Producing weapons alone was not enough, the army also had to learn how to handle them, which took some time as well.

It was thus with very mixed feelings that Trotsky came to Manzanillo to inspect the first Char FT17 made at the local tank construction site.
It was mid-May already. Would time suffice for training the crews?
“How many can you produce per day?” he asked the Frenchman who run the plant.
“In the next three weeks, we’ll finish ten units – including this one. Thereafter, production will rise to one per day.”
“How long will it take to train the crews?” Trotsky turned to the French tank officer, a certain Lieutenant-Colonel de Forzanz.
“The combat crews can learn their trade in five to six weeks. – The problem are the maintenance and repair crews, they will take a quarter of year to really be fit. – Also, driving a tank alone isn’t what counts, you have to practise in larger formations, to learn coordination between tanks, infantry and artillery. – This said, it will take at least a quarter of a year to arrive at combat ready formations. – Six months would be optimal.”

 

[Bmao]

Communism was never sparked in China ITTL, so our friends Mao, Zhou and Deng will have to look for other occupations.
Chiang is an ordinary officer in Cheng's army.

The Southern Coalition is rather losely knit, and not an instrument of power projection. Cheng is concentrating on Guangdong - and hoping that the example may spread by initiatives coming out of the other provinces.
I don't see him starting a war.

I'm no Hendryk, but Chinese History is still my emphasis on my history major.

I still find it highly unlikely that a loose coalition would be able to survive in the long run. Cheng is going to need some mechanism to prevent some of his organization from splitting off and forming a group of its own, initiatives can only do so much and some of the warlords will simply reject them because they care only for their own personal power rather than that of the entire country. Some of Cheng's initiatives would be too progressive for the warlords to join out of their own initiative and instead may in fact form a anti-Cheng clique. I don't think Cheng would necessarily want to start a war, in fact he revolted militarily against Sun in 1922 which messed up the Northern Expedition, but there's a limit to how many provinces can simply join up in a Federal system, and eventually he'll have to take on the warlords militarily. They are and will remain the biggest obstacle to any modernization in China, and to its unification and I really don't see any other way that they can be taken out other than by force.

I do think that there would have been a small communist party in China, but it would have remained the think tank of intellectuals or a small city movement. I think it was Mao and Peng Pai who began morphing Chinese Communism into a peasant movement, and without that it wouldn't get off the ground at all. Therefore I largely agree that very few or any of the prominent Communists of OTL would join TTL's CCP.

However, I do see some of OTL's Chinese Communists still playing a major role down the line in some form, as some were exceptionally gifted individuals.

Chou En Lai: He had been part of the May 4th Movement (which occured before the POD) which probably means he still becomes a talented student organizer, such as the Tianjin Student's Union. He had been toying with Socialist ideas but he'd been toying with them as a possible ideology for an anti-warlord, pro-Nationalist sentiment. In OTL in 1920, he would go study in France and Britain, and one of the reasons Chou was pushed to a more radical communist past was of the corruption, racism and graft in the work-study program of those universities against Chinese students. Yet with those two countries in the dumps it is likely that gifted Chinese students like Chou would go study in Germany instead or the US instead, and when he and other students who in OTL would become prominent Nationalists and Communists return in China would have a more tempered view of how to solve China's problems.

The story is probably the same for Deng Xiaopeng, who would go to Germany to study and work before returning, and not return with a bitter feeling of anti-capitalism because of more enlightened attitudes toward race and better working conditions for its workers.

Mao Zedong: He'd probably still join up with one of the small intellectual communist circles, but they'll soon die out and he'll likely try to find a way to hook up with Cheng's circle. In OTL, Cheng invited the Communists into the Kuomintang against Sun's wishes, so with the Communists fading out ITTL, he'd also probably invite them and its existing members views in time would probably become more moderate. Though he will never really become prominent, Cheng would probably recognize Mao's ability to organize and mobilize the peasants in the countryside, most likely in the Hakka region where he grew up, and use him to foster some of Cheng's countryside initiatives. He eventually might become a political spokesperson for a left-wing, but not Communist party in the Federal, Democratic system that Cheng is hoping to create, or perhaps a provincial governor of his native Hakka region in Cheng's Federalist system.

Chiang Kai-Shek: Because Sun Yatsen is no longer the head of the Kuomintang, as you said earlier Chiang probably remains an ordinary officer. I could still see him rising up to become a prominent general; for instance if the Japanese invade he could be the leader of one of the army groups, but again, I don't forsee him taking any political role as Cheng would likely emphasize the separation of the military from politics (though that in itself would be a long, drawn out and perhaps painful process) and purely exists for national defense.

I could also see Chiang Kai-Shek being sent to Germany to receive training as a military officer. On that note, Max Bauer's advisors would also be critical in improving the quality of the Junior Officers of Chen's forces, (who might include future OTL figures such as Peng Dehaui, Lin Biao and Hundred Victories Wei among others) and really improve China's performance against a possible Japanese invasion or more likely, in taking out the warlords.

Sorry if that was a bit long. That's all for now.

 

[rast]

Well, here's someone who cares about Chinese reunification:

The Dragon over the River

Zhèng Xiàoxū, Prime Minister of Mănzhōu Guó (or Manchukuo for the barbarians), was extremely happy with the outcome of the Trans-Baikal War. It had lifted the dominating weight of the Japanese ‘advisors’ from his administration and drastically reduced the standing of the Japanese officers in the Army of Mănzhōu Guó. While still depending on Nippon’s support, Mănzhōu Guó had become a Chinese entity, run by an effective bureaucracy (thanks to Japanese thoroughness), which prospered beyond expectation – not because of Japanese investment, Nippon was rather broke, but because of Chinese business men who appreciated the safe and secure environment of Mănzhōu Guó and the chances it offered to them.
Yes, it was capitalism to the extreme, yet it worked. Factories were popping up like mushrooms after the rain, not funded by foreigners, but by Chinese investors.
In Mănzhōu Guó, there were no backward peasants, there were agricultural entrepreneurs running huge estates (the former Russian settlers mostly had left the country, and the real estate had been sold to the highest bidders) which profited from supplying foodstuffs to Japan, China and the USA.
The work force in the factories was composed from the youngest and brightest elements of the Chinese society, who had left the stagnant conditions of the war lord areas for the awakening atmosphere of Mănzhōu Guó. The Russians had left the tradition of wooden buildings; thus, housing was cheap and widely available. The state – supported by sizeable revenues – was taking care of infrastructure, education and health care, but refrained from any intervention into business.
The University of Haishēnwēi (formerly known as Vladivostok), founded in 1922, was developing well and attracting lecturers and students from all over Asia.

That Russia threatened to annul Mănzhōu Guó again some day did pose no great menace for Zhèng, who saw Haishēnwēi only as a temporary capital. In his imagination, he would reside in Běijīng again in few years time – as Prime Minister of Emperor Xuantong of China.
Already today, the Northern Chinese war lord areas had become more or less economic satellites of Mănzhōu Guó. And the Army of Mănzhōu Guó, created by the Japanese to counter the vicious Russians, also was a formidable instrument for uniting China again.
Zhèng had close ties to Prime Minister Hara and the Black Dragon Society in Japan, which supported Pan-Asianism and the expulsion of all ‘Long Noses’ from Asian soil. He had agreed to leave the resources of Sakhalin to the Japanese for Hara’s and the Black Dragons’ support of his attempt at Chinese reunification. The Japanese of course thought that the new Imperial China would remain a client of Japan, but Zhèng was of the opinion that the end result would be the other way round.

Zhèng estimated that by 1926 Mănzhōu Guó would sufficiently be consolidated to start the conquest of China. Most of the war lords would choose to fight it out, but some could certainly be bought. However, none of their forces posed a serious challenge for the splendid Army of Mănzhōu Guó. – Only the Army of Guangdong, where the Germans were fostering that political idiot Cheng, was made of a stuff that caused his Generals to counsel for utter care.
But Zhèng thought that the fame of the Emperor would win the peasants, after all, it had been the Chinese Emperors who had brought stability to Chinese affairs and enabled them to live a peaceful and secure life. They were suffering under the war lords, and certainly would rally under the guidon of Emperor Xuantong. And Mănzhōu Guó’s prosperity certainly would attract the traders and entrepreneurs, who also suffered under the war lord regimes (if they were not allied to them).

The Emperor himself was an inexperienced youngster of seventeen years, who – so far – had developed no ideas of his own but seemed happy to follow Zhèng’s counsel. His restoration to the throne in Běijīng, however, was a goal to which he wholeheartedly agreed.

 

[Kara Iskandar]

Intriguing plot concerning China...

 

[Bmao]

Very interesting plot indeed. Once the warlords are eliminated, there's gonna be the Chinese Civil War taking place full-scale between Cheng's German-backed Federation, and Zheng's Xiaoxu's Japanese backed corporatist Manchukuo regime sometime in the late twenties or early thirties. Could this lead up to a possible German-Japanese proxy war then?

Zheng's Manchukuo might become extremely prone to communist ideas, and see a revival of the CCP despite Communism being destroyed in Russia and the original CCP (the one that Mao ran) faded away into Cheng's Federation.

One other thing, how much territory does Zheng control? Is it only the territory formerly belonging to Russia or does it also include most of Manchuria that was added during the Transbaikal war? For instance, in OTL, Zhang Zuolin was the warlord of Manchuria during the twenties; did he get knocked off during the 1922-23 period or did he join out of his own accord? I think it would be the later, as both Zheng and Zhang (agh, I get confused with those two all the time) would find the Emperor Puyi as a rallying call to put aside some of their differences. For instance, he controlled the Fengtian army which had a quarter of a million men armed with surplus WWI war material, and would these forces be added into Army of Manchukuo?

In the middle, I'm assuming that the Beiyang Government is completely powerless in its ability to control the countryside beyond Beijing and shouldn't expect it to last much longer, and everything in between Cheng's Guangzhou Federation and Zheng's Manchukuo is a warlord chaos, with some remnant foreign sphere of influence zones on the coast. Maybe the war could start when the Beiyang Government collapses and then Zheng and Cheng race each other to seize control of Beijing.

Both of these two factions seem rather powerful, and it will take a long time for either of them to seize control of all of China, or perhaps they won't and there will be a North China and South China, with one capital in Beijing and the other in Guangzhou, when its all said and done.

 

[rast]

Yes, I see indeed the possibilty that the Mănzhōu Guó capitalist biotope will produce a stong Socialist reply.
Mănzhōu Guó is presently confined to the territory taken from the Russians - minus the areas in the west lost in the Tans-Baikal War, thus, just Outer Manchuria.
Zhang is still in place, has made peace with the Zhili Clique - and is not prone to accept Mănzhōu Guó dominance. But his population is defecting - he's rapidly losing popular standing. I see him come asking for a new job in Haishēnwēi rather soon. (One of those that may be bought.)

 

[Bmao]

All right, but we can expect inner Manchuria to fall into the orbit of Zheng pretty soon though.

What about the status of Sakhalin? You might have mentioned it before, and that part of it was settled in the Transbaikal war but I forgot exactly how it turned out.