A Russian Dynasty - A New Rome TL

[oca2073]

Realistic or ASB?


Our story begins in late AD 1681 when the emperor Kang Xi of Great Qing dispatched a diplomatic legate to Russia to negotiate a treaty with the Russians due to the ongoing border clashes between Russian colonists in the native Manchu homeland. Another point of the dispatch was to find out more about the massive land of "Losha" and the western barbarians, who had particular ability in making firearms, cannon, as well as astronomy. The man appointed was the "eunuch" Viscount Wei who had been an unlikely playmate to the emperor when he was a child (thumbs up if you can spot the literary reference).

Reaching Moscow by mid 1682, Viscount Wei was present as the Russian Tsar Feodor III suddenly died and there was a power struggle. During the turmoil, Viscount Wei became involved romantically with the Russian Tsar's sister Sofia Alekseyevna helping her to organize an uprising against her rival, the wife of the late Tsar Alexis (father of Feodor III and Sofia). Natalya Kirillovna Naryshkina attempted to claim power by installing her son by the Tsar, Peter to the Russian throne. Somehow Viscount Wei was able to free Sofia from imprisonment to organize the uprising. In the end, a compromise was negotiated. Both Peter and Ivan (Sofia's brother) would rule as co-Tsars. But Peter's mother was killed in the fighting and Sofia was named regent.

Viscount Wei would stay in Moscow until 1689 when Peter was able to take power from his half sister. During this time there was some limited cultural interchange between Russia and the Central Kingdom thanks to Viscount Wei's presence. The interchange was mostly one way with the translation of various Chinese Confucian works into Russian for the benefit of Russian scholars. With Sofia's overthrow however, Viscount Wei decided to return to China, but not before pressuring Tsar Peter to agree to a favourable border treaty with Qing. The Amur basin was ceded entirely to China. Tsar Peter, new to power and still facing challenges to his rule was forced to accept.

Tsar Peter (who later became Peter the Great) would develop a lifelong hatred for the Chinese Empire and it became an obsession to him that one day Russia would be strong enough to challenge and defeat the Qing Empire. Amongst his grievances was what he perceived as Chinese intervention in Russian succession that saw the death of his mother, and the enforced rule of his half sister that would prevent him from taking the reins of power until long past his maturity.

In the next century, Russian expansion across Siberia accelerated and new colonists created new towns in the wilderness as native peoples were subjugated. The idea that Russia would one day conquer China gradually took on a romantic aspect as the dream of emulating the Mongols and also the Manchu was passed down from Tsar to Tsar, but nobody really thought it achievable or remotely realistic. Nevertheless the Tsars of the 18th century stressed the development of urban centres on the fringe of the Qing Empire, establishing weapons manufacturing as far east as possible which proved to be a boon mostly to Siberian colonization. Tobolsk, Irkutsk, and Nerchinsk was given priority for prisoners forcibly sent east. By 1750, a Siberian route was completed connecting these settlements directly to Moscow, but river transport remained the norm for bulky cargo.

 

[oca2073]

The Qianlong emperor's accomplishments were vast, almost outdoing the deeds of his illustrious grandfather the Kangxi emperor. Having fought ten campaigns mostly with success he had vastly expanded the Qing Empire to encompass vast tracts of Central Asia. But his expensive campaigns had also depleted the Qing's financial resources and the decline of the dynasty's military forces continued steadily throughout his reign. This was demonstrated by failed frontier wars waged against Burma and Vietnam where Qing armies were soundly defeated. The situation only grew worse after Qianlong struck up a strange friendship with the commander of the Palace Guard Heshen. It was rumoured that he and the emperor had a romantic relationship and that the emperor viewed Heshen as the reincarnation of the concubine that Qianlong felt personal responsibility for causing the death of. As a young boy, handpicked as the Crown Prince, he struck up a friendship with one of his father's concubines. One time he had surprised her out of the blue as she was preparing makeup and she had inadvertently reacted by slapping him. This act was witnessed by a servant who told the emperor, who then had the concubine dismissed in disgrace. The concubine later committed suicide.

In any case, Heshen was favoured by the emperor to an extent which many saw as irrational and rose quickly. By 1790 he had been inducted into the Imperial family and was a relative of the emperor, marrying his favourite daughter. Enjoying complete freedom of action he became infamously corrupt, quickly infecting all the ranks of the bureaucracy and military with the same corruption and promoting his cronies. Practicing extortion, prolonging military campaigns in order to pocket funds, abrogating powers and official posts, stealing from the increased taxes and the treasury marked his rise, and he soon became untouchable enjoying the complete confidence of Qianlong. A culture of corruption and nepotism quickly set in and the problems with the military worsened as Heshen became indisputably the most powerful person after the emperor.

With the expulsion of the Jesuits and the enforced Haijin policy of banning overseas contact, China had not kept pace with European firearms development. Notably their ability to cast cannon had actually declined compared to the early 18th century. In addition, there was mass corruption in the military thanks to Heshen as well as the decadence associated with decades of peace. The Manchu bannermen had lost most of their fighting spirit after generations of being garrisoned in Chinese cities and paid a generous stipend by the Qing state. They spent most of their spare time frequenting gambling houses, prostitutes, and theatres rather than training or practicing for war. The Han Green Standard Army that had helped the Qing Dynasty suppress domestic rebellion was in even worse shape, with funds meant for military training, upkeep, wages, salaries regularly stolen by administrators or generals. Due to the perceived threat of equipping Han soldiers with advanced firearm weapons, the Manchu rulers had essentially done everything they could to weaken the Green Standard Army. Desertion was common, troop sizes were understrength, and morale was low.

Rising population levels of the 18th century initially due to New World crops and increased land under cultivation had ultimately brought about a decline in the standard of living compared to 1700 and now China lagged decisively behind Europe. The peasantry was further impoverished by the increased taxes demanded by the corrupt Qing government by the 1790s, and the siphoning of funds meant for the maintenance of canals and dams. Predictably, the Yellow River flooded and with crops damaged it meant that many starved.

 

[LuckyLuciano]

A eunuch seducing a Russian princess?

 

[oca2073]

A eunuch seducing a Russian princess?

Lol the idea comes from the "Deer and the Cauldron" and the protagonist is a fake eunuch.

 

[alexmilman]

The Qianlong emperor's accomplishments were vast, almost outdoing the deeds of his illustrious grandfather the Kangxi emperor. Having fought ten campaigns mostly with success he had vastly expanded the Qing Empire to encompass vast tracts of Central Asia. But his expensive campaigns had also depleted the Qing's financial resources and the decline of the dynasty's military forces continued steadily throughout his reign. This was demonstrated by failed frontier wars waged against Burma and Vietnam where Qing armies were soundly defeated. The situation only grew worse after Qianlong struck up a strange friendship with the commander of the Palace Guard Heshen. It was rumoured that he and the emperor had a romantic relationship and that the emperor viewed Heshen as the reincarnation of the concubine that Qianlong felt personal responsibility for causing the death of. In his youth, as the Crown Prince, he struck up a friendship with one of his father's concubines. One time he had surprised her out of the blue as she was preparing makeup and she had inadvertently reacted by slapping him. This act was witnessed by a servant who told the emperor, who then had the concubine dismissed in disgrace. The concubine later committed suicide.

In any case, Heshen was favoured by the emperor in what many saw as irrational and rose quickly. By 1790 he was inducted into the Imperial family and was a relative of the emperor, marrying his favourite daughter. Enjoying complete freedom of action he became infamously corrupt, quickly infecting all the ranks of the bureaucracy and military with the same corruption and promoting his cronies. Practicing extortion, prolonging military campaigns in order to pocket funds, abrogating powers and official posts, stealing from the increased taxes and the treasury marked his rise, and he soon became untouchable due to enjoying the complete confidence of Qianlong. A culture of corruption and nepotism quickly set in and the problems with the military worsened as Heshen became indisputably the most powerful person after the emperor.

With the expulsion of the Jesuits and the enforced Haijin policy of banning overseas contact, China had not kept pace with European firearms development. Notably their ability to cast cannon had actually declined compared to the early 18th century. In addition, there was mass corruption in the military thanks to Heshen as well as the decadence associated with decades of peace. The Manchu bannerman had lost most of their fighting spirit after generations of being garrisoned in Chinese cities and paid a generous stipend by the Qing state. They spent most of their spare time frequenting gambling houses, prostitutes, and theatres rather than training or practicing for war. The Han Green Standard Army that had helped the Qing Dynasty suppress domestic rebellion was in even worse shape, with funds meant for military training, upkeep, wages, salaries regularly stolen by administrators or generals. Due to the perceived threat of equipping Han soldiers with advanced firearm weapons, the Manchu rulers had essentially done everything they could to weaken the Green Standard Army. Desertion was common, troop sizes were understrength, and morale was low.

Rising population levels of the 18th century initially due to New World crops and increased land under cultivation had ultimately brought about a decline in the standard of living compared to 1700 and now China lagged decisively behind Europe. The peasantry was further impoverished by the increased taxes demanded by the corrupt Qing government by the 1790s, and the siphoning of funds meant for the maintenance of canals and dams. Predictably, the Yellow River flooded and with crops damaged it meant that many starved.

An idea of Russia going East instead of West is solid even without a personal hatred being involved and to a certain degree it was implemented in the XIX - early XX centuries. The obvious advantage for Russia was that instead of “Russia - West” model in which Russia was an exporter of the raw materials and importer of the manufactured products it was becoming an exporter of the manufactured goods, thus developing its own industry.

Of course in OTL timetable this expansion amounted mostly to the CA and only in the mid-XIX was spreading to the Pacific coast and Chinese territories. However, if all costly OTL entanglements on the West and South (GNW, War of the Polish Succession, 7YW, Napoleonic Wars, most of the Ottoman wars, enormous resources spent on conquest of the Caucasus, except for securing Azerbaijan) are abandoned in a favor of the Eastern direction then the OTL results of the 1860’s could be achieved by the end of the XVIII. This still leaves an issue of the CA but it could be subdued more or less in parallel with the Eastern expansion. So, by the end of the XVIII you have something like the modern Russian-Chinese border, self-sustaining infrastructure on the Russian Pacific coast and reasonably decent roads connecting area to Russia. In OTL some of such roads (on a regional scale) had been built before construction of the Trans Siberian Railroad. Construction was “low tech” with a lot of forced labor (of which Russia never was short) being used. A big problem would be to find enough settlers to populate Siberia and Far East: in OTL serfdom made tasks like that quite complicated so you’ll have to figure out this part (perhaps a less severe form of it, using state peasants, etc.).

Probably at some point in the mid-/late-XVIII Swedish Baltic Empire was going to start falling apart due to the pressure of its neighbors (especially growing Prussia) and Russia could get some piece of the Baltic coast with a relatively small effort. Annexing Crimea was pretty much a necessity but this was not the same as the numerous wars with the Ottomans fought in the XVIII - XIX, often without a clearly stated or realistic purpose.

 

[alexmilman]

Lol the idea comes from the "Deer and the Cauldron" and the protagonist is a fake eunuch.

Well, according to the rumors Sophia at that time was involved with Vasili Golitsin who was definitely better looking.

Ditto for the coup: a Chinese ambassador hardly would be in a good position to contribute to any serious degree into the clash between the existing parties. But how about doing it other way around: he somehow is getting close to Peter and, together with Golivin, makes him more interested in China as a source of wealth (limiting beauties of the “West” to drinking and whoring in the German Settlement).

 

[Valena]

Russia looking eastwards as the dealer of manufactured goods is interesting, as it opens the way to "West Luxuries" indirectly. The Russia oriented in this direction is economically MUCH better off compared to OTL.

 

[alexmilman]

Russia looking eastwards as the dealer of manufactured goods is interesting, as it opens the way to "West Luxuries" indirectly. The Russia oriented in this direction is economically MUCH better off compared to OTL.

Of course. The Western luxuries could be bought with the money obtained from selling the Russian goods to China and the CA rather then with the Russian raw materials sold rather cheaply to the “West” (hardly could be different with the maritime trade being almost completely in the foreign hands). Not to mention all benefits of having your own manufacturing instead of depending on somebody else.

But besides purely economic aspect, the political/military aspect can not be discounted. Just think about the huge waste of the people and money on the wars which produced very little in the terms of the practical results.

To think about it, I’d propose a slightly different POD:
1. Naryshkin faction is losing with Natalia sent to a nunnery and Peter having an unfortunate accident, just to remove him from the picture
2. Sophia and Golitsin are adopting Eastern policy instead of getting involved in the Great Ottoman War (Kiev had mostly a token value and Russian military was not ready for the war against Khanate).
3. As a result, the regency is not suffering a massive loss of the face and starts preparing logistics necessary for implementing “Drang nach Osten” -) ). Treaty of Nerchinsk is revised within the life of the current generation, etc.

 

[Valena]

Of course. The Western luxuries could be bought with the money obtained from selling the Russian goods to China and the CA rather then with the Russian raw materials sold rather cheaply to the “West” (hardly could be different with the maritime trade being almost completely in the foreign hands). Not to mention all benefits of having your own manufacturing instead of depending on somebody else.

Hense my obsession with ATL Nerchinsk treaty in nearly all TLs I've written, as Russia had MASSIVE trade advantage over say Brits and Dutch when trading with China - no need to use bullion. It's CHINESE who are paying in gold coin to us.
Experimentally I found that the best PoD to keep Russia interested in its Eastern holdings is having to do nothing with Royals. At least not directly.

It's different person elected successor of this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriarch_Joasaphus_II_of_Moscow or at least butterflying away Joachim election. Joasaphus II was very interested in missionary activities in Far East. Having him live long enough to see Feodor III reign would lead to him going along with appointment of Irkutsk Metropolitan See (the division of Siberian Metropolitan See into two was in OTL accomplished only in XVIII century), and so the church support can help regulating some actions leading directly to increasing population density of the region.
The ideas were (in random order of plausibility):

• Give Old Believers freedom of customs and worship in Dauria, sort of creating analogue of Puritan piligrimage to the New World; given that Abbakum was exiled to Dauria once, it may be seen as "holy site" to them;
• Create Cossack settlements on Amur with the same "voisko" privileges as Don and Yaik Cossacks (though this would ruin relations with locals to hell; church authority or not)

This 1670 PoD would maybe create some proto-infrastructure/interest in capital to the enough degree that Albazin is not abandoned.

 

[Valena]

2. Sophia and Golitsin are adopting Eastern policy instead of getting involved in the Great Ottoman War (Kiev had mostly a token value and Russian military was not ready for the war against Khanate).

In OTL the dilemma was "wage war with Turk allied with Poles or wage war with Poles allied with Turk". The Far East appearing as third option needs some prepared ground as outlined in post above.

 

[alexmilman]

Hense my obsession with ATL Nerchinsk treaty in nearly all TLs I've written, as Russia had MASSIVE trade advantage over say Brits and Dutch when trading with China - no need to use bullion. It's CHINESE who are paying in gold coin to us.
Experimentally I found that the best PoD to keep Russia interested in its Eastern holdings is having to do nothing with Royals. At least not directly.

It's different person elected successor of this guy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriarch_Joasaphus_II_of_Moscow or at least butterflying away Joachim election. Joasaphus II was very interested in missionary activities in Far East. Having him live long enough to see Feodor III reign would lead to him going along with appointment of Irkutsk Metropolitan See (the division of Siberian Metropolitan See into two was in OTL accomplished only in XVIII century), and so the church support can help regulating some actions leading directly to increasing population density of the region.
The ideas were (in random order of plausibility):

• Give Old Believers freedom of customs and worship in Dauria, sort of creating analogue of Puritan piligrimage to the New World; given that Abbakum was exiled to Dauria once, it may be seen as "holy site" to them;
• Create Cossack settlements on Amur with the same "voisko" privileges as Don and Yaik Cossacks (though this would ruin relations with locals to hell; church authority or not)

This 1670 PoD would maybe create some proto-infrastructure/interest in capital to the enough degree that Albazin is not abandoned.

This all sounds quite reasonable to me, especially legitimization of the Old Believers who, with a benefit of ahindsight, proved to be the most successful entrepreneurs in the imperial Russia and even before that a very good cash cow (as soon as the government figured out that it is more profitable to tax them then persecute them).

With the Cossack the main problem would be to have enough of them: after all one of their “sources” in the unsettled areas were the serfs fleeing from their masters. However, with the pre-Petrian serfdom not, yet, being a complete slavery the problem was not unsolvable. Government could legitimize (as you proposed) the existing settlers and promise the same rights to the new arrivals, no matter what their origin (which would greatly simplify the issue of the Old Believers) and even make this an option for some types of the convicted criminals. Plus, the local tribes could be included as in the later time the Kalmyk had been included in Don voisko: conversion was not required. Adding to them certain number of the regular troops (streltsy and/or New Model) with the artillery could make all the difference necessary. And, taking into an account that the ore-Petrian troops had been permitted to have their own households and to act as the artisans, traders, etc. when free from the service you have expanding class of the military settlers.

 

[Valena]

The Church authority increase PoD is necessary, as in OTL China success other than them knowing "magic word "logistics"", was that conquistador-esque behavior of Russian colonists alienated the locals. With missionaries present (and Bishop of Irkutsk being an authority present on-hand), dealing with locals could have been better. And thus by 1690ies Russia has some ground to stand on, and ATL Nerchinsk treaty is negotiated in very different circumstances.
Anything dealing with late 1680ies is simply too late.

 

[alexmilman]

In OTL the dilemma was "wage war with Turk allied with Poles or wage war with Poles allied with Turk". The Far East appearing as third option needs some prepared ground as outlined in post above.

Well, in the late XVII - early XVIII the Poles were mostly allies against the Ottomans: Sobieski gave away Kiev as a payment for Russia joining the anti-Ottoman league. If Sophia’s government rejects this “generous” gift (anyway, Kiev was already under Russian control on a “temporary” basis and the PLC already was not capable of taking it back by force so if the Russian diplomacy was a little bit more mature and cynical the result could be achieved by doing nothing) then Russian Drang Nach Osten can start in the 1680s.

Crimeans could be contained by the continuously expanded system of the fortified lines and skillful usage of the nomadic irregulars on Russian service and the Cossacks of Don. Later they could be dealt with permanently and the same goes for the Ottoman strongpoints on the Northern coast of the Black Sea. This would require a single well-prepared war with the clear strategic goals. No pointless fighting in Moldavia (which was a part of all Russian-Ottoman wars since Prouth Campaign), no Caucasus as a secondary theater; equivalent of the Archipelaggo expedition can be useful but with a clear understanding that this is just a tool for putting additional pressure on the Ottomans. Not being previously involved in the expensive follies of the GNW, War of the Polish Succession, 7YW and Munnich’s costly exercises in the field command, Russia would be much better positioned both economically and militarily and both Hapsburgs and Prussia much more exhausted and hardly capable to apply a meaningful diplomatic pressure to minimize Russian acquisitions at the Ottoman expense. Non-involvement into the Polish affairs also would save a lot of trouble.

Of course, it can be argued that without the real experience of the European wars Russia would not be able to maintain a modern army capable of dealing with the Ottomans but I have serious doubts that this was necessary the case.

 

[Valena]

This all sounds quite reasonable to me, especially legitimization of the Old Believers who, with a benefit of ahindsight, proved to be the most successful entrepreneurs in the imperial Russia and even before that a very good cash cow (as soon as the government figured out that it is more profitable to tax them then persecute them).

Amur Oblast is very rich in natural resources, so having the closest Russian thing to Calvinist work ethics settled there may be a boon for local infrastructure (and thus this idea was used by me no less than twice in different TLs/idea draft threads - both here and at fai.org.ru).

 

[alexmilman]

Amur Oblast is very rich in natural resources, so having the closest Russian thing to Calvinist work ethics settled there may be a boon for local infrastructure (and thus this idea was used by me no less than twice in different TLs/idea draft threads - both here and at fai.org.ru).

What can I say except that the great minds think alike.

The Old Believers are just one of the numerous examples of the Tsarist governments picking the worst out of a possible set of the options. Persecutions of the Old Believers did not make practical sense and it would be much more productive to leave them alone in exchange for some reasonable extra tax.

Ditto with the Cossacks: it took quite a while for the Tsarist government to figure out their true usefulness as the military settlers on the borders and the most loyal protectors of the regime. And the only things required was organization of their formal administrative (but not military) autonomy and freedom from the taxation in exchange for the military service (with their own horses and weapons). If this was done earlier, the uprisings of Rasin, Bulavin and Pugachev could be avoided and excessive energy channeled to, say, Eastern borders.

 

[Valena]

Razin and PROBABLY Bulavin are too early (for Razin's time period it's "one conquistador more in already troublesome region"), but 250% agree on Pugachyov.