My fellow members, I urge you to vote for option D. Last time we had a deciding vote for baltics and we opted to back off due to our weakness and look where it brings (Estonia), so this time let go with full gun blazing. Who knows, we may win hearts and minds.
A New Beginning - Our 1992 Russian Federation
- Thread starter panpiotr
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One thing that does need to be done in regards to the details is that we need to go extra lengths to make Ukraine feel like it is being valued. To this end hearts and minds are extremely important. This should show in material results and in ways we can sell easily to the Ukrainian population.
The coming crash in the global economy should give us a chance to prove that early on.
The coming crash in the global economy should give us a chance to prove that early on.
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We also need to clamp down hard on the insurgency. None of this halfhearted and weak stuff the US did in Afghanistan.
The US will be determined to turn this into our new Afghanistan.
We shouldn't trust the US too much here, no. I'm sure an insurgency will happen. But we can limit the appeal it has by acting in ways that win the ordinary Ukrainian over... the feelings of theirs matter a lot.
We don't need to give the US a free crowbar to break open one of our soft underbellies.
D. So long as we can do it without a war, minimum military and civilian casualties/collateral damage, and have widespread local support, perhaps even as a response to the post-Maidan provisional government inviting us in to secure the country against Western-backed forces.
C) Ukraine remains de-facto independent, but with Russian puppet government
Im voting C) as that's unlikely to cause to much of International response and much resistance in the country itself. Im not willing to sacrifice decades of development and becomes international pariah for the sake of expansion. Not to mention i don't want to know how this will impact our system of governance, we are expecting millions of people to join and have a voice in our Parliament if we go down this vote we will effectively have to sign death sentance to our democracy and freedoms as i don't see this ending without us resorting to mass repression of Ukrainian culture and hundreds of thousands of dead people on top of millions being displaced in Western Ukraine. This is the price we will have to pay to annex Ukraine.
Also expect that Europe will cut any connection with us no matter the sanctions which will kill our economy and kick us out of the race to be 3rd Superpower, annexation of Ukraine isn't worth sacrficing Russia's future over.
I also see a new Cold War starting as unified West will ignore China and focus all their attention on us and there's no way in hell that we will be able to mantain our living standards as opposed to otl Russia we are lot more developed country that is/will be far more connected to World economy. Even with Dual circulation we won't survive this, or at least will stagnate.
Also people are literally overrestimating importance of the Ukraine to Union State, we already have abundance of resources abd population anything that Ukraine may offer on its own is miniascul compared to the what we already have and we can generally gain access to these resources peacefully with negotiation, diplomacy and trade. We don't need Ukraine within Union state abd it being forced to join won't make us any stronger than we already all. That's just pure nationalist propaganda.
Also bigger map won't help us in any way long term, Soviet Union was huge with wast territories yet the price of keeping those territories had brought it to it's grave and they were a lot more repressive society than ITTL Russia, having Ukraine being forcefully annexed cannot be done long term without collapse of sozial cohesion and repression of dissident voice both in Ukraine and in Union State domestically.
Long term this will also be a terrible decision as short-term territorial gain will result in a long-term cold war with the West and Sowing of hatred in Ukraine equivalent to hatred Baltics have towards Russia.
Im voting C) as that's unlikely to cause to much of International response and much resistance in the country itself. Im not willing to sacrifice decades of development and becomes international pariah for the sake of expansion. Not to mention i don't want to know how this will impact our system of governance, we are expecting millions of people to join and have a voice in our Parliament if we go down this vote we will effectively have to sign death sentance to our democracy and freedoms as i don't see this ending without us resorting to mass repression of Ukrainian culture and hundreds of thousands of dead people on top of millions being displaced in Western Ukraine. This is the price we will have to pay to annex Ukraine.
Also expect that Europe will cut any connection with us no matter the sanctions which will kill our economy and kick us out of the race to be 3rd Superpower, annexation of Ukraine isn't worth sacrficing Russia's future over.
I also see a new Cold War starting as unified West will ignore China and focus all their attention on us and there's no way in hell that we will be able to mantain our living standards as opposed to otl Russia we are lot more developed country that is/will be far more connected to World economy. Even with Dual circulation we won't survive this, or at least will stagnate.
Also people are literally overrestimating importance of the Ukraine to Union State, we already have abundance of resources abd population anything that Ukraine may offer on its own is miniascul compared to the what we already have and we can generally gain access to these resources peacefully with negotiation, diplomacy and trade. We don't need Ukraine within Union state abd it being forced to join won't make us any stronger than we already all. That's just pure nationalist propaganda.
Also bigger map won't help us in any way long term, Soviet Union was huge with wast territories yet the price of keeping those territories had brought it to it's grave and they were a lot more repressive society than ITTL Russia, having Ukraine being forcefully annexed cannot be done long term without collapse of sozial cohesion and repression of dissident voice both in Ukraine and in Union State domestically.
Long term this will also be a terrible decision as short-term territorial gain will result in a long-term cold war with the West and Sowing of hatred in Ukraine equivalent to hatred Baltics have towards Russia.
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I don't think we are going to see hundreds of thousands of dead people—not even close. As for our democracy and freedom, yes, there will be changes, and there will be a price, but not a death warrant. We may become international pariahs for North America or western Europe, not for the whole world. The German and Japanese economies see a resurgence due to us, not the other way around. We are members of WTO, BRICS, and SCO . I am sure we can handle this. Even in OTL, Russia didn't become a complete pariah. It still has a fair share of friends.
I vote for C). I do not see a guerilla insurgency that we will need to put massive investments into will benefit us in the long run, even with our flank secured. It is better that we do not tear Ukraine appart and let them have the appearance of political independence.
My vote goes to D just to see how the author going to handle this situation.
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OTL Russia didn't completely annex entire country and is a lot smaller economy which means that it's able to easier reorient itself towards developing World and live off it's rising energy demand, our Russia with a lot larger and developed economy won't be able to that without Cannibalizing and sacrificing some of our sectors.
By cutting entire West we will cut of significant portion of our growth and will have to invest significantly more in our economy, not to mention lean in far more towards China which will come with a price of opening our market to it and selling our energy at significantly cheaper cost which will damage our domestic business. This will also mean an end to our sozial programs and well being as these services will be to expensive to mantain long term.
As for BRICS, SCO and WTO? Yes we will be "member" of BRICS but all the leadership will fall to China as it will be seen in better light. Same with SCO, yes we will have a say but reality will be that we will need to agree with China on most matters as we will not be able to afford to offend them, this also means allowing Chinese Economic penetration of Central Asia and death of our version of OPEC in post Soviet space as it stops China from purchasing resources from Central Asia cheaper. Not to mention our brands will now need to compete with Chinese brands there.
For otl Russia this isn't the problem as it is already the case (China being present in Central Asia), for us it means giving up economic preeminence there.
WTO membership is useless as we will be breaking international law and EU and West in general will severe trade relations.
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Personally I am in favor of middle path-that is annexing Novorussia+Crimea, and the rest of Ukraine is independent, but i will go with option that gets most votes.