Comments/suggestions wanted please on next steps for this TL
Story so far: A General Election in 1913 leads to a Liberal/Labour Coalition government. That Coalition is fragile and still requires the support of the Irish Parliamentary Party to survive, or at least for them not to vote against the coalition government. The IPP price for this is Home Rule for the entire island of Ireland, with full responsibility for all internal affairs to be handed to the new Irish Parliament including:
a) a guarantee from the British government to maintain Irish national spending at current levels,
b) the abolition of the Dublin Castle administration and its replacement by one responsible to the new Parliament,
c) No change in the number of Irish MPs in the London Parliament and,
d) Immediate legislation to control the activities of the UVF.
The Liberal position is however undercut by Keir Hardie for Labour. He demands that any Home Rule Bill should also include provision for Scotland and perhaps Wales, including proposals to disestablish the Scottish and Welsh Churches. He supports the controls on the UVF, but wants them extended to cover similar bodies on the mainland – in other words the burgeoning Civilian Force in England.
Finally it is agreed in Cabinet to offer the possibility of Home Rule for Ireland, but for it first to be considered by a Constitutional Convention, which would consider the position of all the Home Nations. This would include representatives from all the major parties. On the question of controlling the UVF and like bodies, no agreement was reached.
This takes us up to post #110 (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-frozeun-spring-relaunched-version.231963/page-6#post-11643993)
and post #121 (https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...elaunched-version.231963/page-7#post-11648457)
I’m unsure about the next steps. The Convention, which is struggling from day 1 could go several ways:-
Each of these would have very different implications for the UK, especially in the light of WW1 which we know is coming but they don’t. (This is February 1914)
Failure probably means yet another election – the fourth since 1910 – and if WW1 follows OTL timetable probably just before, or during the run up to war.
Federalism seems the most likely to lead to a peaceful solution, although probably only postpones Irish Independence and may trigger the same demands for Scotland. However if England is excluded, (a distinct possibility if the Tories and Unionists have their way) it would probably fail. The others, especially the Irish would just see it as a backdoor to maintaining English dominance of the Union/Federation. In the short term though probably puts the UK in a better position to respond to beginning of war.
Home Rule for the whole island would mean the Unionists kick off instead of the Republicans, probably even worse violence because ITTL they are better armed and willing to be brutal. Probably would lose Ulster Brigades for British Army. An alt-Easter Rising could well be in Ulster. British Army in this context would probably be less reticent since such a rebellion would be taking place if not in war time, at least under the threat of war.
Home Rule with separate Ulster remaining in the Union would probably have similar outcomes for Ireland. as in 1921 . No Easter Rising, but probable Civil War and Ireland leaving the Union.
Any thoughts, further Ideas and comments welcome please. All of these lead to 'interesting' outcomes. I'm also interested in views on how this might be viewed in Germany and France as things grind on in the rest of Europe.
Story so far: A General Election in 1913 leads to a Liberal/Labour Coalition government. That Coalition is fragile and still requires the support of the Irish Parliamentary Party to survive, or at least for them not to vote against the coalition government. The IPP price for this is Home Rule for the entire island of Ireland, with full responsibility for all internal affairs to be handed to the new Irish Parliament including:
a) a guarantee from the British government to maintain Irish national spending at current levels,
b) the abolition of the Dublin Castle administration and its replacement by one responsible to the new Parliament,
c) No change in the number of Irish MPs in the London Parliament and,
d) Immediate legislation to control the activities of the UVF.
The Liberal position is however undercut by Keir Hardie for Labour. He demands that any Home Rule Bill should also include provision for Scotland and perhaps Wales, including proposals to disestablish the Scottish and Welsh Churches. He supports the controls on the UVF, but wants them extended to cover similar bodies on the mainland – in other words the burgeoning Civilian Force in England.
Finally it is agreed in Cabinet to offer the possibility of Home Rule for Ireland, but for it first to be considered by a Constitutional Convention, which would consider the position of all the Home Nations. This would include representatives from all the major parties. On the question of controlling the UVF and like bodies, no agreement was reached.
This takes us up to post #110 (https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-frozeun-spring-relaunched-version.231963/page-6#post-11643993)
and post #121 (https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...elaunched-version.231963/page-7#post-11648457)
I’m unsure about the next steps. The Convention, which is struggling from day 1 could go several ways:-
- complete failure
- some sort of deal on a Federal UK – which seems unlikely except perhaps in “we’ve tried everything else to get a deal” sense
- Home Rule for island of Ireland as per OTL
- Home Rule with separate Ulster
Each of these would have very different implications for the UK, especially in the light of WW1 which we know is coming but they don’t. (This is February 1914)
Failure probably means yet another election – the fourth since 1910 – and if WW1 follows OTL timetable probably just before, or during the run up to war.
Federalism seems the most likely to lead to a peaceful solution, although probably only postpones Irish Independence and may trigger the same demands for Scotland. However if England is excluded, (a distinct possibility if the Tories and Unionists have their way) it would probably fail. The others, especially the Irish would just see it as a backdoor to maintaining English dominance of the Union/Federation. In the short term though probably puts the UK in a better position to respond to beginning of war.
Home Rule for the whole island would mean the Unionists kick off instead of the Republicans, probably even worse violence because ITTL they are better armed and willing to be brutal. Probably would lose Ulster Brigades for British Army. An alt-Easter Rising could well be in Ulster. British Army in this context would probably be less reticent since such a rebellion would be taking place if not in war time, at least under the threat of war.
Home Rule with separate Ulster remaining in the Union would probably have similar outcomes for Ireland. as in 1921 . No Easter Rising, but probable Civil War and Ireland leaving the Union.
Any thoughts, further Ideas and comments welcome please. All of these lead to 'interesting' outcomes. I'm also interested in views on how this might be viewed in Germany and France as things grind on in the rest of Europe.