PDF has been pretty explicit that the Brits and French aren't going to dismantle Germany cuz that would make reunification by the strongest military power (Prussia 2.0) a certainty. Instead, theyre going to dePrussianize and demilitarize German culture and society. There's no regionalist separatist sentiment anymore.
A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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PDF has been pretty explicit that the Brits and French aren't going to dismantle Germany cuz that would make reunification by the strongest military power (Prussia 2.0) a certainty. Instead, theyre going to dePrussianize and demilitarize German culture and society. There's no regionalist separatist sentiment anymore.
I don't see the logic there. The question isn't 'occupy or balkanize', the occupation and demilitarization is a given. After the occupation has been going on for a while and there's increasing call back home to draw down the forces used for said occupation, the question of in how many pieces Germany should be will probably be coming up. It also seems probable that Germany will be built up similar to OTL, from the smallest pieces (Kreis, I believe?) upwards. However, when building Germany up piece by piece, the most obvious 'natural' stopping points would be historic borders and, if some of those pieces get different treatments as a result (almost a given since there's people on the ground with different opinions on how to best handle the issues) then even if there's little intent now to divide Germany, there will be enough people callnig for it that the idea would at the least be seriously considered.
The thinking is that they've got two options: split Germany up into multiple countries and ensure that they don't reunite, or allow Germany to remain united and fundamentally change the culture. Both in reality are a recipe for a long commitment - for either they have to fundamentally change the culture to ensure that a militarist state like Prussia can't rise again, and in the former they have the additional commitment to preserving this settlement by force if necessary. The critical point on cultures is that you need to ensure that a clear majority in any one state is anti-militarist - and this is significantly easier in a united Germany.
The reality is that the decision to unify Germany is seen to have been a done deal for a very, very long time - the only fight (and it was a huge one) was about who would be in charge. Ultimately, that was won by a militarist, aggressive state - and Germany promptly started invading the rest of Europe. Splitting Germany up is just guaranteeing a repetition, possibly in a hundred years or so when the French and British aren't on the lookout for it. However, at the same time this war isn't seen as the fault of the Nazis but of the Germans/Prussians (the two being rather interchangeable) - and crippling and reforming Prussia by itself, particularly with help from the rest of Germany, is seen as a realistic task - particularly since the Poles are eyeing-up very large areas of what was once Prussia by way of compensation for the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.
It isn't all written yet, but what I have in mind is:
- A loose federal constitution. Not hugely different from OTL, the main difference being that the federal government isn't going to be allowed any armed forces and certain powers currently allocated to the constitutional court will be retained by the occupying powers (e.g. allowing the military police to carry out searches without warrants).
- A very long military occupation somehow paid for by the Germans. The question of how to tie the Entente forces into continuing the occupation a long way into the future is one currently being given a lot of thought.
- Prussia getting a lot smaller to compensate Poland, with the displaced people spread out all over Germany rather than in the rump of Prussia.
- Japanese-style pacifist additions to the OTL basic law. This is likely to require fairly minor modifications, actually - the basic law is already quite limiting.
A lot of that I agree with - the Entente occupation authorities will start by handing over dog catching and rubbish collecting to the Germans, and working their way upwards. The problem is that the powers of each layer of government aren't being created out of whole cloth when handed over to the Germans. Prior to handover, there wasn't nobody in charge of the town of Wienerschnitzel-am-see: instead Major van Klomp of the Dutch army would have been exercising them on behalf of the occupying powers. That will apply all of the way up - and because there already exists central power when Germany collapses and armies always like one person to be ultimately in charge, that means it's going to take a conscious decision and a load of work to partition Germany.
In addition to the large number of refugees running from the Soviets there was an awful lot of "population transfer" after the war where ethnic Germans were expelled from their homes outside the new borders of Germany, frequently violently and often with no more than the clothes on their backs. Expecting to avoid this ITTL is wishful thinking, I suspect.
Driftless
Donor
What are some of the likely zones for expelling ethnic Germans here? New Poland, Bohemia, Hungary, Schleswig, Alsace-Lorraine, Italy? Does Stalin get in on the program while he can take advantage of the German defeat, or would he be happy to have them in the Ukraine, etc.
How much/how little does this exodus-to-be include religious groups with Germanic heritage?
Many, of course, died in the process. Whilst I imagine the Poles and the Czechs will almost certainly expel and Stalin might depend on his mood, I don't think there's really the same pressure on Hungary, Romania and Yugoslavia to expel their Germans. Italy, I'm not so sure about, certainly Mussolini and Hitler had an agreement about the Südtirol and the Arbeitsgemeinschaft der Optanten für Deutschland was very successful at moving people to the Warthegau but they ended up coming back.
It's a sound plan. Probably the most sound that can come out at this point. But it will takes a lot of time to build up the "New Germany". And there will be contentious points along the road :
- the Eastern German border ;
- the displaced German population from Eastern Europe and the spoliation of their lands and properties (note that there still are fears of private Germans buying back some of their ancestors lands in Poland and Czechia today) ;
Agreed, but this a can of worms.
For Czechoslovakia, I don't think it will change from OTL (ie expulsion of almost all of ethnic Germans). Same for Poland but with a possibly different border changing the number.
For Hungary and Romania, ITTL Nazi Germany hadn't the time to leverage the German minority in the countries. And, since they represent a significant economical group, they might get a pass.
Alsace-Lorraine pro-German population won't be a problem as almost all of them were expelled in 1919 when every one on the territory had to pledge allegiance to the French Republic or leave.
For Italy, the negotiated expulsion between the Nazi and the Fascists is already in place by the time of the POD. So, some families from South Tyrol have already emigrated into occupied Poland (were the IIIrd Reich relocated them). The question is how much of the German population migrated ITTL, because I don't think the Mussolini regime will take them back as they had launched a "italianization" of the region.
For USSR, always expect the worse from Stalin.
I know that this is rather late - however: When you can keep calm, cool and collected when all around you are running around like headless chickens "They obviously know something that you don't know."
I was going to try to write a bit more tonight now that one of my daughters is back in nursery and my other daughter is about to go back to school, but my grandfather died this morning a few weeks short of his 101st birthday and I'm really not in the mood.
It's also complicated by the fact that I bet quite a few of those on the Deutsche Volksliste will have been working for the Polish Government in Exile in some way, given how early the German attacks went awry ITTL. They're going to find themselves treated like Poles rather than Germans.
The root cause of it will be that these groups supported the Germans in taking over first the Sudetenland, then the rest of the Czech Republic and finally helped with the occupation both in the Czech Republic and Poland. Those groups which didn't support it aren't going to be seen as Fifth-Columnists.
It's also complicated by the fact that I bet quite a few of those on the Deutsche Volksliste will have been working for the Polish Government in Exile in some way, given how early the German attacks went awry ITTL. They're going to find themselves treated like Poles rather than Germans.
Concur - I really don't expect that ethnic Germans from countries never at war with Germany are going to have problems, and Hungary has spent so little time in the war (not to mention their use of the Austro-Hungarian flag) that I can't see them getting away with expulsions.
Yep. In OTL the Allied forces committed themselves to occupying Germany for 50 years (later they agreed to terminate the occupation a few years early after the fall of the Berlin Wall). ITTL I'm expecting the minimum period to go up.
If they're in Poland then they will be on the list of people to be expelled "back to Germany" - if they want to go back to Italy later they can try, but nobody is going to be helping them.
The line between courage and stupidity at three o'clock in the morning is a fine one.
Probably Germany gets to keep a bit more. since East Prussia isn't going to the Soviets - otherwise it's just too much for Poland to swallow.
I can see those limitations working against German military might. However, what about its economic muscle? Without the split there’s an increased chance that Germany rebounds and dominates the continent economically sooner than in OTL. Is this perceived as a danger or is there an expectation for the post-war Germany to behave itself?
Not exactly. The ones who left were the ones who chose not to pledge to the French Republic but definitely not all the German ethnic people (which is most of the population anyhow, including the ones who feel French, speak only French and reject Germany violently). However, some pro-German people (which whose family may have been in Alsace for generations, even prior to 1870) did not want to leave in 1919 either because they did not want to leave their ancestral lands or because of the mess Germany was in 1919. There was some pro-German agitations in Alsace between 1919 and 1939, as some people were nostalgic of the time of the 2nd Reich (much less after 1945, for some weird reason).
IIRC. 120,000 people left A-L in 1919, compared to 400,000 coming to Alsace in 1871-1914 (and 600,000 leaving after 1871).
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You have my condolences. I lost my grandma in 2014, take as long of a break as you need.