A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

AtlanticCanuck

Speaking of people whose fortunes would be different in this timeline and one very obvious one comes to mind: Benito Mussolini.
In otl he wound up as the evil buffoon sidekick of one of the most evil men in history. He got his country humiliated, pounded flat and bullied into handing over the Italian Jews to the Nazis. His Army was exposed as a paper tiger.

In this tl, he has kept Italy out of the war, more or less broken with Hitler, and has established an informal sphere of influence over the Balkans to protect them from the USSR. With the Nazis going down sometime in 1942, doubtless Franco in Spain will look to Italy for continued support. With peace continuing in Italy they can also complete the fourth Littorio class battleship. With France being able to complete only one or two of the Richelieu class battleships yet, Italy has a definite edge over France in the Mediterranean Sea naval race.

So he has Italy looking like a major power. He has Italy in the best position it has been since the Roman Empire. He will still be regarded as a nasty piece of work but he will not be tarred with the brush of collaborating with Hitler, at least not for long anyway. He'll be able to argue "When I began to see what Hitler really was, then I broke with him. And incidentally that was before those crazy Nazis started murdering millions of innocent people!"


There are two other questions lurking in Rome in this tl.
First: Will the Pope protest the Holocaust. Whatever the Pope's reasons for not protesting in otl, in this tl two of them are removed: 1) Rome is not controlled by Nazis or Nazi allies and 2) The Nazis are NOT fighting the communists. If the Pope does protest, what affect will that have in Italy. Which brings up the Second Question: Will Italy enter the war?

If the Pope protests the Holocaust, it might be too much for Benny and his ego to resist: God wills it! It's a holy war against evil! The Pope just said so! If they can get Hungary to enter the war also, then they even have a viable route to attack: Up the Danube to Vienna. If the Germans in Poland are so weak that the Polish Army is starting to pop up in broad daylight now, then surely they are weak enough in the south that the Italian army can handle them around Vienna. Right? If the Italians try to attack in the Alps though all the will in the world isn't going to move a two mile high stone wall.

Benny has done well in this timeline. Crunch time is coming though. Will his ego and circumstance let him get though it?
 
Orry

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
I can see a stronger argument bring made ITTL

Nazi is not Fascist - Fascist fought against Communism whilst the National SOCIALISTS made common cause with them.......

I can see Franco and the Moose doing all they can to distance their form of government from Hitlers
 

MarshalofMontival

AtlanticCanuck said:
Speaking of people whose fortunes would be different in this timeline and one very obvious one comes to mind: Benito Mussolini.
In otl he wound up as the evil buffoon sidekick of one of the most evil men in history. He got his country humiliated, pounded flat and bullied into handing over the Italian Jews to the Nazis. His Army was exposed as a paper tiger.

In this tl, he has kept Italy out of the war, more or less broken with Hitler, and has established an informal sphere of influence over the Balkans to protect them from the USSR. With the Nazis going down sometime in 1942, doubtless Franco in Spain will look to Italy for continued support. With peace continuing in Italy they can also complete the fourth Littorio class battleship. With France being able to complete only one or two of the Richelieu class battleships yet, Italy has a definite edge over France in the Mediterranean Sea naval race.

So he has Italy looking like a major power. He has Italy in the best position it has been since the Roman Empire. He will still be regarded as a nasty piece of work but he will not be tarred with the brush of collaborating with Hitler, at least not for long anyway. He'll be able to argue "When I began to see what Hitler really was, then I broke with him. And incidentally that was before those crazy Nazis started murdering millions of innocent people!"


There are two other questions lurking in Rome in this tl.
First: Will the Pope protest the Holocaust. Whatever the Pope's reasons for not protesting in otl, in this tl two of them are removed: 1) Rome is not controlled by Nazis or Nazi allies and 2) The Nazis are NOT fighting the communists. If the Pope does protest, what affect will that have in Italy. Which brings up the Second Question: Will Italy enter the war?

If the Pope protests the Holocaust, it might be too much for Benny and his ego to resist: God wills it! It's a holy war against evil! The Pope just said so! If they can get Hungary to enter the war also, then they even have a viable route to attack: Up the Danube to Vienna. If the Germans in Poland are so weak that the Polish Army is starting to pop up in broad daylight now, then surely they are weak enough in the south that the Italian army can handle them around Vienna. Right? If the Italians try to attack in the Alps though all the will in the world isn't going to move a two mile high stone wall.

Benny has done well in this timeline. Crunch time is coming though. Will his ego and circumstance let him get though it?
Click to expand...
I don't recall if the Pope has condemned the Holocaust (he may not know about it yet), but he did condemn the Nazis pretty severely.
 

pdf27

MarshalofMontival said:
I don't recall if the Pope has condemned the Holocaust (he may not know about it yet), but he did condemn the Nazis pretty severely.
Click to expand...
Easter 1941, from memory - there was an encyclical letter explicitly calling for people to protect Jews from persecution and talking about martyrs among those who oppose the Nazis. It’s mainly aimed at Poland though, and probably didn’t have much impact on Mussolini.

Edit: Palm Sunday 1941, see https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/a-blunted-sickle.287285/page-261#post-10004283
 
jeandebueil

jeandebueil

If Stalin wants to look "relatively" nice to the Wallies (notably after his invasion of Poland) and thus keep a large portion if not the majority of his gains since 1939, he might give a small bone to the Poles and the Entente. Like OTL, but for different reasons, Sikorski must know that Poland won't regain its eastern regions and as PDF27 suggested it, I doubt the Wallies are willing to regain this territories by force.

Sikorski OTL accepted the loss of eastern territories (less Wilno and Lwow) in exchange for a Western compensation. Since France will surely want to weaken Germany and Britain will let them do to a certain degree, Stalin might give some territories with a Polish majority back (but not Wilno, way to far and a useful tool to gain Lithuanians' support) while the Entente force Germany to accept some sort of a Oder-Neisse line.
A man on deviantart had made quite a plausible and realistic map in that sense.
Perhaps the Germans will still keep Stettin if the Poles gain Konigsberg.
Anyway, it would still involve large population transfers (I guess Stalin would use this transfer the Soviet polish population, more than 1000 000 before WW2) even if they might be less brutal than OTL.
If Stalin gives some territories back, he allows the Wallies to save their faces without having to use force : "look, the Reds knew they couldn't get away with it etc." And Sikorski might agree to this deal.

Here's the map:

1c11874d3db06554540b91b18ed232b2--poland-maps.jpg


Anyway, great tl as always :)
 
Orry

Orry

Donor
Monthly Donor
Rufus Shinra said:
The Nazis were just as socialist as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is Democratic and for the People.
Click to expand...

Thanks for making the quote look like something I was saying rather than what Franco and the Moose would be saying........

The true quote would not have been much longer
 

Rufus Shinra

Orry said:
Thanks for making the quote look like something I was saying rather than what Franco and the Moose would be saying........

The true quote would not have been much longer
Click to expand...
You’re welcome. I was pointing out a word you chose to highlight, and made sure there would be no misinterpretation.
 

Rufus Shinra

Orry said:
You made it look like I was saying that rather than Franco and the Moose saying it
Click to expand...
You're the one to have this perception. I'm simply giving a pretty obvious answer to that saying that fools noone IRL, not even at the time. Franco describing the Nazis as socialists would just make everyone roll their eyes.
 

Tanc49

Musings as I'm relearning a bunch of stuff about the Versailles treaty.
This time, the Soviets seem quiet enough and not as formidable as OTL.
There's also no heavy American involvement to water it down.
The UK and France have just faced the third war of aggression from Prussia in less than a century (yes I know, propaganda spin) and are moving toward Berlin.

I cannot imagine the post-war settlement is gonna be pleasant for the Germans.
 

Rufus Shinra

Tanc49 said:
I cannot imagine the post-war settlement is gonna be pleasant for the Germans.
Click to expand...
No it will not. I actually expect Germany to be broken down in its constituant Landers as independent countries forbidden to unify again and deprived of military forces, period.
 

AtlanticCanuck

Maybe the Allies will decide since the Prussians are the biggest problem in Germany, they should take Prussia out of Germany. Think otl East Germany minus Saxony, with maybe the Polish border a bit further East than the Neisse River. Maybe make Bavaria independent again also. That would give you three states large enough to be stable, but not big enough to be threatening
 
von Adler

von Adler

SlideRuleJockey said:
I wonder how many Polish Divisions are fighting on the Western Front? With bases in eastern France and Belgium, could these Polish Divisions be air dropped back onto their native soil and supplied by air after capturing a couple of air fields? I am guessing with the Luftwaffe on its last legs and the fact that the allied air forces are running out of targets, that the bombers could be used as transports.

Sprinkle in a division or two each of British and French troops with them.

With so few German troops in the east, they may have some moderate success, and be enough to keep "Uncle Joe" on his side of the border to avoid a political poop storm he might create by invading.

Just a thought.
Click to expand...

My best guess would be 5 at this time.

1 Armoured (Division Legere de Mechanique).
1 Semi-motorised (Division Infanterie de Motorisee, that has all support elements motorised with the infantry using corps or army level truck pools assigned as needed).
2 Infantry (Division d'Infanterie).
1 Mountain (Division Chasseur Alpine).

OTL the French formed two infantry divisions, one armoured brigade (intended to be expanded to a DLM) and two mountain brigades. One of the infantry divisions were to be converted to a motorised division to form a motorised corps together with the DLM division. I'm assuming that Romania is pro-French (despite inviting the Italians) and are looking the other way as interned Poles make their way to France or Syria (as they did OTL until France fell), which should mean that the French have some more Polish manpower.
 

Orcbuster

Polish mountain division is most likely in norway though alongside the 5th 13th and 27th Demi-Brigade of Chasseurs Alpins as per OTL.
 
Last edited:
jeandebueil

jeandebueil

von Adler said:
My best guess would be 5 at this time.

1 Armoured (Division Legere de Mechanique).
1 Semi-motorised (Division Infanterie de Motorisee, that has all support elements motorised with the infantry using corps or army level truck pools assigned as needed).
2 Infantry (Division d'Infanterie).
1 Mountain (Division Chasseur Alpine).

OTL the French formed two infantry divisions, one armoured brigade (intended to be expanded to a DLM) and two mountain brigades. One of the infantry divisions were to be converted to a motorised division to form a motorised corps together with the DLM division. I'm assuming that Romania is pro-French (despite inviting the Italians) and are looking the other way as interned Poles make their way to France or Syria (as they did OTL until France fell), which should mean that the French have some more Polish manpower.
Click to expand...

Good analysis. If I may, I would like to complete it with my own thoughts.

In June 1940 OTL, the Poles had 2 Infantry Divisions (the 1st Grenadiers and the 2nd Rifle Divisions -in French "Chasseurs, literally "Hunters"), 2 infantry Divisions being formed (the 3rd and 4th DIP or "Polish Infantry Divisions"), one armoured brigade: the 10th "Armoured Cavalry Brigade" and two Mountain Infantry Brigades: the Polish Independant Highlands Brigade in Norway and the Polish Independant Carpathian Rifle Brigade in Syria.

With Polish volunteers from America, Britain and France coming for 18 months, soldiers escaping from German camps and reaching France through Hungary and Romania (like OTL) and -why not- Polish soldiers and officers in Soviet custody freed by Stalin as a token of good will, it's indeed very likely that the 4 Infantry Divisions remain fully manned with 16500 men each (French divisional strenght OTL in 1940). That the 10th Armoured Brigade indeed become the 1st Polish DLM (Light Mechanical Division or Division Légère Mécanique) while the two Mountain Infantry Brigades become a full mountain Infantry Division- likely serving in Norway-, perhaps the 5th Carpathian Rifle Division, French Army liked those kind of names.
I wouldn't be surprised if France had enough Polish manpower to create a 6th Infantry Division, indeed likely motorized in order to create a "Motorized Army Corps" (French Army's official name) with the 1st Polish DLM.

Considering the size of the French Infantry and Armoured Divisions (around 16500 and 11000 men respectively) and adding Corps and Service troops, I would say that Polish Forces in France would number 200 000 men (180 000 in the Army, the rest in Air Force and Navy).
We should add to this the 1st Czechoslovakian Infantry Division which was formed OTL by France in June 1940 and would likely have 16500 men in 1941 ITTL. Considering Benes and Sikorski OTL were willing to create a formal and long lasting "Polish-Czechoslovakian pact" (mainly against the Soviet Union), I wouldn't be surprised if Benes would accept to place "his" Division under Polish command. By this point, you have Seven Divisions in France, enough to create an autonomous Field Army (like for France OTL in 1944 with Tassigny's 1st French Army with... 7 Divisions as well).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top