I caught up to this timeline a few days ago, and started a reply that I'm afraid got disjoined and distracted; I'm hoping a new start will tighten it up!
First of all, I hope you two might get back with Bahamut and continue Red Star, because although on second look this timeline is not quite as improbable as it seemed at first glance, Red Star is clearly stronger. The incident with Shephard here for instance--I have to agree, it is out of character, for him and for NASA, and there's nothing so out of line on the American side in Red Star.
What's up with the French incident by the way? It seems you are walking away from it unresolved. But there's more to untangle there! On one hand, I don't think that shooting down Brezhnev's plane would be more than an awkward, unpleasant incident in the long run--these things happen and don't generally lead to war.
On the other--none of the political shuffling of French leadership in its wake you mentioned included the name of Charles de Gaulle. I broke off my last response when I got bogged down in checking out the state of French politics OTL circa 1961--and OTL de Gaulle had already taken up the French Presidency with emergency powers and the stipulation of a new Constitution (one that would give the President much stronger powers permanently) some years before, in 1958. And by 1961 he had almost put the Algerian crisis, which was the issue that brought him back to power, mostly behind him--much to the disgust and discontent of the rightist factions who called for him in the first place, by acquiescing to Algerian independence with no particular guarantees for the European settlers, who fled Algeria en masse in 1961 when its independence became effective. I didn't confirm or deny that the shooting incident was OTL but I'll take your word for it--the French didn't vacate Algeria until July, and retained certain treaty rights (to missile and nuclear test sites) that were effective for half a decade to come, until 1966.
But here, since by 1961 OTL de Gaulle's name was synonymous with France, at least regarding all foreign policy, whereas he is not mentioned at all here, this implies we are in a timeline that diverged well before 1960, by 1958 at the earliest, and de Gaulle is not President of the Fifth Republic, which might not exist. Perhaps here the French are still struggling to keep control of Algeria, or have made less sweeping agreements, and might try to hang on for years to come, without de Gaulle running things. That implies also that the USA is more entangled with France than OTL by this point, since it was de Gaulle who showed Americans the door--although somewhat later in the decade.
So while the loss of Cmrd Brezhnev might be something everyone decently forgets, I think there's a lot of timeline backstory that needs filling in.
Now, what of Chelomei's moon shot scheme? I had to agree with e of pi, who again presumably knows his stuff, in dismissing the plan as given as unworkable and considerably more risky even than the OTL N-1 scheme. However I have been taking a closer look. Even using pessimistic ISPs for the rockets and assuming a less optimistic 10 percent of fuel mass for the stage structures, I do think that something like the direct landing plan can work out, if the initial mass put in parking orbit is as low as 125 tons! It's marginal as hell because we are talking about Hohmann orbits that are by the way not free-return, and take longer than the OTL Apollo trajectories (or your own ATL N-1 dual launch missions). That is, when I worked it out I assumed Hohmann orbits--it turns out Chelomei OTL apparently had his ship going a bit faster, though clearly more slowly than Apollo. Anyway this assumes the under 4 ton return capsule he proposed is adequate for one man, or even two
to live in for nearly two weeks--which is scary but clearly possible, given the extent of some Gemini missions OTL. And that nothing breaks down of course, but that's part of the whole Moonshot game, isn't it? (One reason I raved about the Soviet craft in Red Star was that due to the decision to go with two 75 ton launches, the system had lots of margin for error, more than a frugal and ambitious program would want to have actually).
However the same crude methods of estimation I used to find that 125 tons is marginally sufficient for a direct mission to and from the Moon led me to conclude that a Spartan LOR strategy could get the job done, barely, for as little as 75 tons! Which is to say, that if Chelomei could be persuaded belatedly to support LOR, and also manages a 125 ton rocket, the LEM he would have margin to create would be a sight to see--some 50 to 100 percent more massive all up than the Apollo LM!
Chelomei does not want to go for any sort of rendezvous strategy of course, not EOR, not LOR. It would indeed then be wise for his throw weight to orbit to be greater than 125 tons. Since IIRC 160 is the goal, he has 35 tons of margin to fall short before direct landing and ascent become completely infeasible--and then another 50 tons before LOR becomes impossible as well. With EOR, his launcher can fall under 65 tons to orbit and still enable a direct landing and ascent with two launches, and as low as 40--a miserable quarter of his target!--and still manage a two-launch LOR.
And since his more modest UR-500, aka "Proton," aimed for 20 tons to orbit and actually achieved it OTL, or anyway came close and could clearly be pushed up to that, that implies that a Spartan LOR mission could be accomplished with 4 Proton launches, and with a bit more comfortable margin with 5 or 6. By now Chelomei's ambitious claims for the single shot strategy would be pretty threadbare, but it could be done with existing OTL tech that actually worked! (Or, God only provide, a ker-lox alternative to Proton, such as Red Star's N-11).
Perhaps these benchmarks are a bit too low because of inefficiencies involved in compositing craft in orbit, but at any rate I think the project is not quite as impossible as I initially believed. If he can manage to make the UR-700 reliably put just 140 tons into orbit, I figure he can go ahead with a version of his favorite plan of a single-launch, direct-descent, direct-ascent to TEI single-spacecraft mission.
Of course I think he'd be wiser to look into LOR since that might, with these mass budgets, allow really spectacular Moon adventures.
And he, and any timeline author who wants to enable him, should have his head examined for daring to suggest launching the whole thing on 5000 tons of hypergolic fuel!
The UR-700 he proposed OTL was the mass of seven Proton rockets. Now I gather that over the years, more than seven Protons have failed in various ways, including pad failures, implying that terrible as these events might be for the people immediately present, they don't sterilize all of Khazakstan. But there is no doubt there is a serious danger of a pad explosion--the explosion itself would not be more devastating than an equivalent one of ker-lox or hydrogen-oxygen to be sure! But it would be somewhat more probable, and much more toxic in its aftermath than either alternative. And here, Chelomei is aiming for a single rocket that is nearly twice the mass of either a Saturn V or an N-1!
The thing that gets me about hypergolics for big, scheduled launches is that ker-lox is actually superior, in terms of efficiency, by a bit anyway. So taking these risks, which amount to certainty of a big disaster in the early development of such an ambitious rocket, strikes me as insane when a less devastating alternative that is just as good exists.
Since you've gone and adopted a POD that reaches back to the late 50s if not earlier (judging by the implied alternate development of French politics) I'd like to suggest something I know is of some interest to Michel Van--that Chelomei, Korolev, or some third Soviet clique of designers had hit on the alternative of kerosene-hydrogen peroxide rockets in the 1950s.
Like the hypergolics, hydrogen peroxide poses some risks (much less severe ones of long-term chemical poisoning though) but is liquid at a wide range of what we can call "room temperatures," or more aptly Earth-environmental ones. Pure (well nearly pure, I believe it is technically impossible to get or keep absolutely 100 percent hydrogen peroxide) freezes at about the same temperature as water, but I gather hypergolics too can't afford to get that cold either. It boils at not 100 but 150 C, or rather that is the theoretical boiling point--if you heat it that much it starts to decompose before it boils. Hypergolics, provided they don't get loose, store quietly in suitably clean containers--in perfectly clean ones so does high-test peroxide, but a great many things, just about any dirt or even cracks in an otherwise inert container, can cause HTHP to catalyze and start decomposing; in a sealed container, this means release of both heat--a lot of heat--and oxygen gas, which both raise the pressure along with the temperature and thus raise the rate of catalytic decomposition--leading quite clearly to a chain reaction that can cause the container to explode.
This is one of the worst things about HTHP, along with the fact that that same easy catalysis means that any of it splashed onto many surfaces, including any organic matter, will start a fire fed by the oxygen that is hard to put out. So in some respects it is almost as nasty as the hypergolics (which will do the same things if spilled, but won't explode in their isolated containers). But it doesn't form the same cocktail of nasty toxins, and with the same care given to hypergolics (if you want to live!) the peroxide can be handled and stored.
It is almost 50 percent denser than water, and more than most oxidants, it makes up the greater part of the reactants--the optimal mix of HTHP and kerosene, for instance, is 7.35:1 by mass. So, stored in a rocket's propellant tanks, the heavy peroxide is most of the bulk, and despite the lower density of the kerosene, the overall density of the mix is about 4/3 that of water, hence rather low volume tanks are needed.
What is really interesting is that the potentially achievable ISP is quite within the same range as moderately good ker-lox or hypergolics, above 300. Ker-lox, in a superbly efficient engine such as the Russians have achieved by the late 1980s OTL, is significantly more efficient; a very good hypergolic engine can beat the best peroxide one too. But if the safety issues of handling and storing peroxide can be addressed successfully, I believe that because of the somewhat lower reaction temperatures achieved in the combustion chambers, a kerosene-peroxide engine of relatively high efficiency is easier to make than the comparable ker-lox one.
Thus, in the 1950s, I think it could have been a viable competitor for a missile propellant mix, being as storable as hypergolics and capable of similar efficiencies.
There are other nifty tricks HTHP allows. The degree of coking the chamber and nozzle is much less than with ker-lox, because very little of the burning mix is actually hydrocarbon; the flame is remarkably clean and clear.
And thanks to that dangerous tendency of HTHP to decay in the presence of a catalyst, we can use it to ignite the combustion chambers. Just pump a small stream of it through a catalyst and it will decompose into very hot steam and oxygen--as a monopropellant, such rockets have been made that have an ISP around 100--pretty poor as liquid fuel rockets go, but it has been used as a reaction control system. More usefully in a high performance rocket, such a jet is sure to ignite kerosene, or any other fuel just about.
I've had some notions of my own, with no historical precedent whatsoever, of using HTHP and ammonia, which I have discarded. They do lead however to another idea, which is to use ammonia as a pressurant in a peroxide-kerosene rocket! I figure that a pretty modest mass of ammonia, kept under some tens of atmospheres pressure, will be in saturation, some liquid, some vapor. So imagine we have tubes leading to the tops of the kerosene tank, with this high-pressure ammonia gas pressurizing it, and another set to the top of the peroxide tank--here I suppose we should put a barrier of some kind of flexible plastic ballonet material between the two lest they start reacting prematurely. Now, the rocket engines might be simple pressure fed ones--but unlike pressure fed systems that rely on simply letting a highly compressed gas such as helium or nitrogen expand, here we fire a jet of catalyzed peroxide into the liquid ammonia in a sump at the bottom of the rocket! The peroxide itself is already hot, and then it burns some of the ammonia, releasing far more heat--the hot jet serves as a boiler, if we calibrate it correctly the volume of ammonia gas produced matches the volumes of propellants, mostly peroxide, being consumed by the engines. The pressure is kept constant instead of falling as it typically does in inert-gas fed systems; at burnout we have a volume filled with ammonia gas at roughly room temperature but high pressure; it amounts to a few percent of the mass of propellants. Actually if we have some extra peroxide left we can burn off a good amount of the ammonia too.
Or we don't have to be content with pressure-fed systems, which require the rocket stage as a whole to have strong and thus heavy walls; we could instead use catalyzed peroxide to create steam to drive the turbines that actively pump in the propellants; such an engine would be less simple and heavier than a pressure-fed one but somewhat lighter and cheaper than a more efficient but very high temperature turbine, open or closed cycle, fed by the main propellants--here we are using one of them, the major one, to be sure. And perhaps two; we can work our way toward a more typical fuel-burning turbine, as far as we care to, by injecting some kerosene into the power turbines as well. We could still use ammonia, kept colder, to maintain the pressure of the fuel tanks at a lower level--or perhaps steam, running another peroxide jet through a tank of ordinary water, could do that job instead.
Meanwhile, one aspect of HTHP that has been developed in some OTL engines is using it as a chamber and nozzle coolant--I would imagine doing so results in autocatalysis of the stuff as it hits the hot walls, but apparently this isn't as disadvantageous as I had assumed, and presumably that flow of oxygen and steam is then fed into the combustion chamber after cooling the critically heated surfaces despite the release of yet more heat from the decomposition process. I was wondering, before reading about that today, whether HTHP engines would need some alternative kind of cooling or need to be ablative, but apparently not!
Now OTL, few people ever considered working with HTHP for ballistic rockets, though quite a few used them, or monopropellant catalytic ones, for other kinds of rockets--quite often for airplane rockets, as liquid, permanently installed JATO units, or for research high-speed engines or for rocket-augmented interceptors; the commonest form of human "rocket belts" that have been demonstrated use a catalyzed peroxide jet (good for about 30 seconds operation
). For spacecraft or ICBMs, only the British developed peroxide-kerosene rockets however--the Black Knight sounding rocket, the Black Arrow light orbiter (launching Prospero, the single satellite launched by purely Commonwealth means) and a proposal to use these stages in conjunction with the ker-lox Blue Streak booster stage as an alternative to the French Coralie second stage of the cooperative Europa rocket. The biggest peroxide-kerosene rocket they developed, the Gamma-Eight, is dwarfed by the big rockets the Americans and Soviets are developing here--I figure to make a Ker-peroxide Proton first stage with Gamma-Eights, one would need 38 of the damn things.
Worse, they fell far short of the potential 300+ isp, having isps around 260.
Perhaps that means I have oversold them, and to achieve the competitive ISPs I have been assuming we need more advanced tech than the Soviets could plausibly have in the 1960s. But perhaps it merely means that the British programs were run on very thin and frayed shoestrings, and with serious backing the size and efficiency of the peroxide alternatives could be raised dramatically.
I've been rather fascinated by the possibilities that might have been overlooked with peroxide, as you can see!
At the end of the day, hypergolics have the stronger case because they were indeed developed OTL, on both sides of the Iron Curtain too, and remain mainstays in both Western and Russian rocketry, as well as Chinese and I gather even Indian.
I still think making a 5000 ton rocket with the stuff is folly though. If we can't have peroxide, by all means let us hope this timeline veers back to kerlox!