2000 and Beyond

Discussion in 'Alternate History Discussion: After 1900' started by NickCT, Dec 15, 2011.

  1. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    I'm trying not to let this one get off to a bad start. I hope it'll be closer to my '88 timeline then my others. I have all of Christmas Break so I might as well get busy. This will not follow the real 2000 Election all that closely, it will be rather unique.
     
  2. MrHuman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2010
    Location:
    Ann Arbor, Michigan
    Does Bradley win? I hope so.
     
  3. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Flashbacks

    Summer 1992: Gerry Ferraro Upsets Robert Abrams in Primary
    [​IMG]

    November 1992: Ferraro Wins NY Senate Race, Starts Political Comeback
    [​IMG]

    November 1994: Ann Richards Reelected In Closest Race of the Night
    [​IMG]

    November 1996: One Dole Does Win: Liddy Takes NC Governor Race
    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2011
  4. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Pre-Election Polling

    Democratic Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Vice President Gore* - 38%
    Senator Bradley* - 20%
    Senator Kerry* - 11%
    Senator Ferraro* - 8%
    Governor Dean* - 6%
    Undecided - 17%

    Republican Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Senator McCain* - 35%
    Governor Dole* - 21%
    Former Vice President Quayle* - 13%
    Former Governor Alexander* - 7%
    Senator Hatch* - 4%
    Businessman Steve Forbes* - 4%
    Senator Smith* - 3%
    Gary Bauer* - 2%
    Alan Keyes* - 2%
    Undecided - 9%

    * denotes a candidate not officially in the race
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2011
  5. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Chapter 1

    The Republican Race, Pt. I
    The Republican Nomination fight began in January 1999 when Arizona Senator John McCain announced he was running for President of the United States. The senator was the early front runner for his party's nomination and the war hero promised to lead the country and be a strong Commander-in-Chief. Positioning himself as a centrist, McCain focused on winning the New Hampshire primary and immediately began focusing his efforts there. Soon though, only a week after he announced he was running, McCain's campaign was met with a challenge: Former Vice President Dan Quayle announced in Indiana he was forming an exploratory committee and would make a final decision in March 1999. Quayle had the potential to take out McCain's support in New Hampshire if he positioned himself right. Quickly the McCain camp began raising money and launched a website to coordinate efforts. McCain, considered a lackluster speaker, had much trouble raising money. In February Steve Forbes and Lamar Alexander announced they were seeking the Republican Nomination. Quickly though it appeared the only other "Top Tier" candidate, North Carolina Governor Elizabeth Dole, was positioning herself to be the next Republican nominee. Passing sweeping reforms and balanced budgets in only one term Dole was called "the most accomplished governor" by several National media outlets. By March Quayle formally announced his candidacy and Governor Dole announced she would be running for President. McCain's campaign team was increased as McCain brought on top political operatives, but Karl Rove immediately positioned himself with the Dole Campaign. With the field continuing to grow, frontrunner McCain hit New Hampshire hard, raising money and assuring voters he would represent what they wanted to see in a President.

    The Democratic Race, Pt. I
    Senator Bill Bradley of New Jersey officially announced his exploratory committee on January 8, 1999. In a short speech in front of the New Jersey State Capital, Bradley told Democratic Voters he offered a change from the "politics of yesterday". Continuously hammering Vice President Gore by calling him "conservative", the Senator insisted his positions on the issues would guide the country towards "a new dawn". Senator Bradley's honeymoon was cut short when Governor Howard Dean announced that he too would be seeking the Democratic nomination for President. Calling the race for President in 2000 "the most important election our country will ever face", Dean insisted a progressive liberal would be required to make America successful in the next millennium. Early on Dean was the only candidate bringing in substantial money, despite suffering from low polling numbers. With Dean and Bradley stealing the spotlight in January, Vice President Gore announced his candidacy in February. Gore said that experience was all that should matter when voters headed to the polls. "We cannot pretend that electing an inexperienced Commander-in-Chief is a smart thing to do," Gore reminded voters time and time again. In March Senator Kerry announced that he was also forming an exploratory committee for President. Kerry made aggressive fundraising pushes, and eventually gained ground in both fundraising and polling.
     
  6. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    March Polling

    Democratic Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Vice President Gore - 38%
    Senator Bradley - 20%
    Senator Kerry - 13% (+2)
    Senator Ferraro* - 8%
    Governor Dean - 7% (+1)
    Undecided - 14% (-3)

    Republican Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Senator McCain - 33% (-2)
    Governor Dole - 21%
    Former Vice President Quayle - 15% (+2)
    Former Governor Alexander - 8% (+1)
    Senator Hatch* - 4%
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 4%
    Senator Smith* - 2% (-1)
    Gary Bauer* - 2%
    Alan Keyes* - 2%
    Undecided - 9%

    * denotes a candidate not officially in the race
     
  7. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Chapter 2

    Republican voters anticipated a long and thorough Presidential Primary Process. The field consisted of many well-respect politicians and public servants. As one voter put it, "It's a shame that all our best people are running in one election!" In early April of 2000 polls showed that 58% of Republican voters were "satisfied" with the field of candidates. Since March the list of contenders had grown to include Alan Keyes and Orrin Hatch. Gary Bauer and Robert Smith announced they would not be seeking the nomination. With the field pretty much set candidate toured the nation announcing their plans and proposals for a new Republican Administration. McCain was successful in attracting moderates, using his famous "maverick" nickname. Dole captured most of the "center right" vote while candidates like Quayle and Alexander struggled to take the "right/far right" voters. In the first primary debate Senator McCain stumbled on the issue of tax cuts saying, "Governor Dole wants to cut too many taxes. Across the board tax cuts are not a stable plan to approach." Later McCain appeared hypocritical, "I never said across the board tax cuts were a bad idea, I said that large tax cuts for the wealthy aren't the best approach." Governor Dole, however, outlined her successes when dealing with North Carolina's budget. "We've seen some great success in North Carolina and I think it's time that success spread to America." Dole also threw in a subtle attack on former Vice President Quayle (who appears to be rising in the polls), "I don't need to make faulty comparisons, saying I'm someone else, because I have a real record in North Carolina." Other than that there were no real surprises in the debate. After the debate Dole and Quayle hit Iowa while McCain, Keyes, Bauer, and Alexander focused effortso n New Hampshire.

    [​IMG]

    In early April New York Senator Geraldine Ferraro announced that she was running for President as well. Vice President Gore now faced a slew of challengers hoping to steal the Democratic nomination from him. Senator Kerry (D-MA) hit New Hampshire hard in April calling for a new kind of leadership. Focusing on his extraordinary record as a War Hero in the Vietnam War and talking about his progressive voting record as a Senator, Kerry hoped he'd be able to pull away with the Democratic nomination. Ferraro also hit New Hampshire hard, focusing on gaining the support of Democratic women. Vice President Gore and Senator Dean focused on winning the Iowa Caucuses. Dean launched a well-crafted, interactive website in hopes of stirring grassroots support. "We're gonna win here in Iowa because the people want a can do attitude in the White House!" Dean told a crowded auditorium, full of supporters. Despite constant attacks from Kerry, Ferraro, Bradley, and Dean, Gore maintained a strong lead in fundraising and the polls. Quickly however things began to shift. When the first of many Democratic Primary Debates were held, Vice President Gore stumbled repeatedly interrupting other candidates and ignoring the questions of the moderator to outline policies on different issues. Gore's abominable debate performance left his campaign grasping for air. Their national numbers had slipped substantially and fundraising had taken a deep turn for the worse. It appeared that Senator Bradley had the potential to take the nomination. Tim Russert, on Meet the Press, remarked, "It's incredible, but I think it is very possible that the Democratic field now views Gore as an equal, rather than presumptive nominee." While balancing his time as Vice President with his responsibilities as a candidate, Gore had to overcome some challenges in the early months of the campaign.

    The Republicans, by May and June, were facing their own divided electorate. Though 55% of Republicans maintained their satisfaction with the field of candidates, many were divided. Governor Dole and Senator McCain were running closer than ever and former Vice President Quayle had the potential to catch up. After their second debate polls remain deadlocked as the calendar pages was turned and the month of June began. Fundraising figures showed Dole with a slight edge over Quayle, with McCain finishing a distant third. "Dole is getting most of her money from Republican women who are now energized more than ever," explained NBC's Tom Brokaw. However the media continued to hammer Dole over a "lack of experience". Finally Dole held a press conference in which she said, "Experience isn't, nor should it be, measured by the number of years you serve but what you do in those years." The line received instant praise from the right and propelled Dole to make the race even closer than it already was. With Dole's campaign getting a great start and Senator McCain's fluctuating it remained undetermined who was the real front runner in the Republican race for President. One thing was clear, though: McCain's decisive lead had evaporated.

    Meanwhile the Democrats were facing their own bitter primaries. Senators Kerry and Bradley were closing in on Vice President Gore nationally and Governor Dean was making progress in Iowa. Senator Ferraro continued to struggle, but maintained she could pull off a win. In the debates Ferraro showed a mastery understanding of the issues and refused to attack her opponents. In one debate she remarked, "The primary process isn't about destroying each other in the time for the nominating convention, it's about letting the voters see which candidate is best for November and beyond." Her comments were well-received and some analysts joked she came across as a mother lecturing the rowdy children in front of her. Ferraro's campaign faced many financial hurdles, but Dean's campaign did not. He was raising money quicker than any of the other candidates, most of his donations coming from Iowa voters. "This is all about a strong lover for our country," Dean told a crowd. He walked away from the event $2,500 richer.
     
  8. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    June Polling

    Democratic Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Vice President Gore - 35% (-3)
    Senator Bradley - 22% (+2)
    Senator Kerry - 14% (+1)
    Governor Dean - 9% (+2)
    Senator Ferraro - 8%
    Undecided - 12% (-2)

    Republican Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Senator McCain - 30% (-3)
    Governor Dole - 26% (+5)
    Former Vice President Quayle - 16% (+1)
    Former Governor Alexander - 8%
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 4%
    Senator Hatch - 2% (-2)
    Alan Keyes - 1% (-1)
    Undecided - 10% (+1)

    Democratic Primary Polls (Iowa):
    Governor Dean - 22%
    Vice President Gore - 20%
    Senator Bradley - 20%
    Senator Kerry - 15%
    Senator Ferraro - 11%
    Undecided - 12%

    Republican Primary Polls (Iowa):
    Governor Dole - 25%
    Former Vice President Quayle - 19%
    Former Governor Alexander - 18%
    Senator McCain - 14%
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 5%
    Senator Hatch - 5%
    Alan Keyes - 3%
    Undecided - 11%
     
  9. Paul V McNutt Paul V McNutt Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2007
    I don't see Dean doing that well without an Iraq War.
     
  10. Duke 4 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2009
    Kerry is from Nebraska. Don't you think he would have more strength in Iowa? Where is Junior in the GOP? I don't miss him just wondering.
     
  11. Nazi Space Spy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2011
    He means John Kerry, the 2004 nominee, and Bush lost the election in 1994. Did you read any of this:p?
     
  12. Ariosto Populist Republican

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2010
    Location:
    Wakefield, Massachusetts
    So Ferraro avoids her Cancer somehow? :confused:
     
  13. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Chapter 3

    Summer was beginning, children were leaving schools to go to the beaches, and the United States was in the middle of a hotly contested Presidential race. Though the general election was more than a year away Governor Howard Dean continued to plow away in Iowa, making significant gains. "Dean is poised to be the Iowa Caucus winner," Dean's campaign manager boldly proclaimed on Meet the Press. Senator John Kerry was making gains in New Hampshire, but Vice President Gore continued a respectable lead in the state. The first round of endorsements began to come in as dozens of state leaders endorsed every candidate. For obvious reasons Vice President Gore received widespread support, but Governor Dean had successfully secured the endorsement of several notable Iowa State Senators. Dean's strategy was to win Iowa by a huge margin and ride the momentum to the convention. On the other hand Vice President Gore was hoping to take New Hampshire and Nevada by healthy leads and continue to hammer his message of experience to take the nomination back. Unfortunately for the Vice President he was assumed to be the "incumbent" and Senators Kerry, Bradley, and Ferraro refused to hold back their attacks. In June and July Gore suffered from another round of poor debate performances. Eventually, in an attempt to regain support, Gore released a series of ads. Governor Dean was next in the ad buy, unveiling several radio ads in Iowa and South Carolina. Senators Kerry and Bradley followed suit with Bradley taking a full page ad in The New York Times. Ferraro's campaign did not have the money to release ads so she opted to create a better website with her extra money. Launching a campaign store and a newly-renovated website Ferraro hoped to attract internet users to her campaign. In every debate and interview Ferraro closed by encouraging voters to log on to her webpage: www.ferraro2000.com. It worked. In June and July Ferraro had double the hits that Vice President Gore's website had and triple the hits of Senators Bradley and Kerry. The website wasn't enough though as Ferraro continued to struggle in the polls. Senator Bradley announced in July the creation of his bus tour and began travelling the country.

    [​IMG]

    With the Democrats continuing to battle it out the Republicans had their own slate of candidates. Governor Dole continued to make progress in Iowa and also began to spread her efforts to include New Hampshire and South Carolina. Dole's strategy consisted of winning Iowa, finishing a close second in New Hampshire, and winning South Carolina. As you might imagine she was stretched thin, but she continued to find new ways to bring in the money to support her efforts. Dole's number one asset was Bob and he toured the country getting money and donations from the establishment Republicans. Furthermore Liddy contacted all of her husband's supporters from four years earlier in hopes of expanding efforts. With the largest campaign store of any candidate, Dole also capitalized on the use of posters, literature, and yard signs in hopes of gaining even more name recognition. In the summer McCain struggled to regain his image. He had gradually deteriorated and now was running closer and closer to Dan Quayle than Liddy Dole. On the other hand Quayle was shining and reversing claims he was "out of touch" and "unqualified" to be President. Though a weak debater, Quayle focused his campaign around Town Hall meetings. Visiting Iowa and New Hampshire equally Quayle was hoping to gain front runner status. Steve Forbes however poured hundreds of thousands of dollars into his own campaign. Offering his campaign items for free and airing numerous ads, Forbes was hoping to buy the election. Quickly he started making valuable ground in the polls. Alan Keyes and Orrin Hatch struggled to stay with the pack. Keyes maintained he was the only "Constitutional Conservative" in the campaign and in the few debates he was invited to he made sure he accentuated that point.

    [​IMG]

    In August both the Democrats and the Republicans began feeling the effects of a long and brutal primary process. Dole and McCain were constantly butting heads, Gore was struggling to stand out among the rest of the Democrats, and Senators Kerry and Bradley were pushing hard to gain early support. With Gore and Dean leading the fundraising in the Democratic side, Dole and Quayle dominated the pack. Forbes had the biggest war chest, but most of that money was his own. Dole's amazing lead was a direct result of her ability to bring out young voters and women. Courting independents and these voter blocs was instrumental to her growing success. Iowa reported that many voters who were registered as "Unaffiliated" were becoming "Republican". Most of these voters, some of whom were interviewed, said "Liddy did it." With Dole's experience and grace it was hard to imagine another Republican stealing the show. Unfortunately for Dole however time was beginning to be her enemy. She was spending more money than she was taking in which only proposed potential problems in the future. On the Democratic side Ferraro continued a low operating budget and instead met with many voters directly. Furthermore Ferraro was the only candidate with an aggressive phone banking strategy. Coordinating her volunteers and implementing a "call from home" system, Ferraro was able to bring on younger staffers to help with her "online campaign". Ferraro's online strategy was working and beginning to propel her to move up among the field. In one interview the Senator joked, "I'm glad Al invented the internet, it's going to help me beat him in this primary."
     
  14. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    no but she said an interview (i'm still looking for the video...i cant find it anywhere) that she would've run for President in 2000 had she won the senate race, despite the cancer diagnosis.

    Also -- this is why most of her campaigning is online or indirect. she has a restricted schedule.
     
  15. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    taken into consideration, but he had a respectable record as Governor..from the perspective of the Democrats anyway
     
  16. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Banners for Signatures

    for those of you who want to really get in to this TL

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  17. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    August Polling

    Democratic Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Vice President Gore - 33% (-2)
    Senator Bradley - 24% (+2)
    Senator Kerry - 14%
    Governor Dean - 11% (+2)
    Senator Ferraro - 10% (+2)
    Undecided - 8% (-4)

    Republican Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Governor Dole - 28% (+2)
    Senator McCain - 26% (-4)
    Former Vice President Quayle - 20% (+4)
    Former Governor Alexander - 7% (-1)
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 5% (+1)
    Alan Keyes - 3% (+2)
    Senator Hatch - 3% (+1)
    Undecided - 8% (-2)

    Democratic Primary Polls (Iowa):
    Senator Bradley - 21% (+1)
    Governor Dean - 20% (-2)
    Vice President Gore - 20%
    Senator Kerry - 18% (+3)
    Senator Ferraro - 11%
    Undecided - 10% (-2)

    Republican Primary Polls (Iowa):
    Governor Dole - 26% (+1)
    Former Vice President Quayle - 21% (+2)
    Former Governor Alexander - 14% (-4)
    Senator McCain - 14%
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 5%
    Alan Keyes - 4% (+1)
    Senator Hatch - 3% (-2)
    Undecided - 13% (+2)
     
  18. Orville_third Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2009
    Location:
    Piedmont Socialist Republic
    Hmmmmm...could the SC poll closings prove to be an issue? (This time it could affect both parties...)
     
  19. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    Chapter 4

    While September was largely uneventful October was full of surprises. On the 3rd Ferraro announced that her cancer had spread and that she would be departing from the Presidential race. She promised supporters an endorsement was forthcoming and assured the people of New York she would continue to work hard as their senator. Only a couple of days later Democrats met for another debate. The debate was largely focused between Bradley and Gore as the two sparred over a variety of issues, namely the definition of a "Clinton Legacy". Bradley had a stellar debate performance and though Gore had improved he still had a long ways to go. Senator Kerry began to shift the focus of his campaign on New Hampshire and disturbing news approached the Dean campaign: most of their contributors had dried up. Donations to the campaign suffered a steep fall in September and October, leaving the Dean campaign pulling ads left and right. Bradley and Gore, on the other hand, saw a surge of donations. With the Iowa Caucuses set for January 24th the Dean campaign quickly began to panic, trying to find solutions to their cash problems. In November they suffered a major embarrassment when they laid off dozens of workers in their Iowa and National offices. Senator Kerry, however, grew the size of his New Hampshire staff and stole a page from Ferraro's book by coordinating a "Get out the Vote Team" through email and other online communication. In November Kerry added a message board to his website where supporters could discuss issues. Furthermore Kerry spent his time in the air on AOL Instant Messaging holding virtual town halls. Voters asked him a variety of questions and Kerry was pleased to answer them. He was able to hold a town hall in the air while going to have a real town hall. The number of events nearly doubled for the Senator. In an early-November debate Bradley and Gore, again, stole much of the spotlight. Bradley accused Gore of a "lackluster" career as Gore fired back by calling Bradley "inexperienced."

    [​IMG]

    While the Democrats lost a candidate in October, Republicans didn't. The seven candidates continued to hammer it out as Dole positioned herself as the center right candidate...and the front runner. Increasingly she was attacked by candidates McCain and Quayle. With Quayle maintaining a decent 3rd place showing he still performed well in the fundraising aspect. Unfortunately the problems of his Vice Presidency prevented him from coming close to Dole and McCain. Though he said he was the most experienced candidate, which was arguably true, he had problems connecting with some of the voters. It appeared Quayle had bottomed out at 20%. After a poor debate performance coupled with a disastrous interview on the TODAY Show, Quayle's campaign suffered heavy setbacks, but he continued to court voters. McCain on the other hand was fully prepared to take the nomination. He still held a lead in New Hampshire and New England states and hoped that the party would turn to the center in an attempt to win the general election. As he continued to spread his message to moderate voters, McCain failed to win any of the major endorsements, but that didn't stop Elizabeth Dole. In fact November was a great month for Dole's campaign and it only cemented her as the one to beat for the Republican nomination.

    [​IMG]

    Elizabeth Dole received the endorsement of Former Texas Gubernatorial Candidate George W. Bush. After a close loss in 1994 Bush's career in politics had formally ended, but he maintained a King Maker behind closed doors. "Dubya" had had a talk show on FOX NEWS when it first debuted and after a 2-year run left to publish several books and hit the lecture circuit. He had little political success in his own life but thrived off the success of his father. Elder Bush also endorsed Elizabeth Dole, a move that had received some mild controversy. With two major endorsements in her favor, Dole raised an unprecedented $2 million in the month alone. Usually endorsements don't carry much weight, but Dole was able to prove she was the presumptive nominee for the party. McCain's campaign struggled financially and laid off hundreds of workers in New Hampshire. On the other hand Forbes poured even more money into his campaign. Unleashing several nationwide ads, Forbes claimed he would bring a "businessman approach" to the White House. "Now is not the time for career politicians," Forbes said in one ad, "It is time for us to unite as a nation. Unite behind a proven leader with true business experience." Unfortunately Forbes didn't move much from his 5% he continued to hold in national polls.

    In the final month of 1999, fears of Y2K were rampant and (unrelated, of course) Senator Orrin Hatch withdrew a week before Christmas. The Democrats and Republicans took breaks from primary debates, but both parties were in overdrive with the Iowa Caucuses a month away. With an aggressive effort by every campaign it appeared that Iowa had the potential to decide it all.
     
  20. NickCT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2010
    January Polls

    Democratic Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Vice President Gore - 35% (+2)
    Senator Bradley - 28% (+4)
    Senator Kerry - 15% (+1)
    Governor Dean - 10% (-1)
    Undecided - 12% (+4)

    Republican Primary Polls (Nationwide):
    Governor Dole - 32% (+4)
    Senator McCain - 27% (+1)
    Former Vice President Quayle - 17% (-3)
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 7% (+2)
    Former Governor Alexander - 6% (-1)
    Alan Keyes - 3%
    Undecided - 11%

    Democratic Primary Polls (Iowa):
    Senator Bradley - 23% (+2)
    Vice President Gore - 21% (+1)
    Senator Kerry - 19% (+1)
    Governor Dean - 18% (-2)
    Undecided - 19% (+9)

    Republican Primary Polls (Iowa):
    Governor Dole - 28% (+2)
    Former Vice President Quayle - 21%
    Senator McCain - 15% (+1)
    Former Governor Alexander - 11% (-3)
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 6% (+1)
    Alan Keyes - 5% (+1)
    Undecided - 14% (+1)

    Democratic Primary Polls (New Hampshire):
    Senator Kerry - 28%
    Senator Bradley - 25%
    Vice President Gore - 25%
    Governor Dean - 14%
    Undecided - 8%

    Republican Primary Polls (New Hampshire):
    Senator McCain - 30%
    Governor Dole - 24%
    Former Vice President Quayle - 24%
    Businessman Steve Forbes - 7%
    Former Governor Alexander - 4%
    Alan Keyes - 4%
    Undecided - 7%