How would the German campaign in the West have gone if British and French troops had been allowed access to Belgian territory prior to the German invasion? Would this have had a major impact on German or Allied Fortunes??
1940 Campaign with a Cooperative Belgian Government?
- Thread starter Cymry-Korean
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Yes, because the French forces going to Belgium and the BEF wouldn't have had to fight encounter battles at the end of a fairly long movement, and as such will defend more effectively than OTL. It also means that Belgium will likely have been able to withdraw in better order to defensive positions. It will be considerably more difficult for the Germans to make progress in Belgium. It even makes a move to the Netherlands easier for the Entente.
Whether this would leave France able to keep more reserves to counter the Sickle Cut is uncertain, but I feel like it would be much harder for the forces in Belgium to be cut-off and defeated if they can hold off the German attack on the Benelux and have more robust logistics and communications now in place.
In fact, the situation in the Ardennes would probably still go better for the Entente because we could see Belgium sparing more units to the area or French troops moving to support them here too.
Belgium is guaranteed to perform better itself because cooperation with the Entente from the start implies that they will be more alert and will make greater preparations. A more alert defense keeping Eben-Emael safe would mean a pretty substantial delay for the Germans.
IMO, Entente victory is considerably more likely here. Would have been even more likely if Belgium never went neutral.
Whether this would leave France able to keep more reserves to counter the Sickle Cut is uncertain, but I feel like it would be much harder for the forces in Belgium to be cut-off and defeated if they can hold off the German attack on the Benelux and have more robust logistics and communications now in place.
In fact, the situation in the Ardennes would probably still go better for the Entente because we could see Belgium sparing more units to the area or French troops moving to support them here too.
Belgium is guaranteed to perform better itself because cooperation with the Entente from the start implies that they will be more alert and will make greater preparations. A more alert defense keeping Eben-Emael safe would mean a pretty substantial delay for the Germans.
IMO, Entente victory is considerably more likely here. Would have been even more likely if Belgium never went neutral.
You really think that the Germans would shelve any attempt to invade the West?
The problem is, the Belgians are terrified of another war being fought all over their territory ..
This leads to a lot of resistance to do 'anything' that might 'provoke' theNazi's ..
(one might even suggest that letting the Nazi streamroller pass through their territory as quickly as possible would be in their best interests ..)
How much of an army did Belgium have? I know they put a lot of faith in fortified defenses, but my knowledge of the Belgian army is pretty limited.
... and shelve their ambitions in the East as well ??
(it's one thing to claim 'this is not a two front war' when one enemey is the other side of the Channel ... rather another to say the same when the enemey (France) in on your border ...)
Oh I know why they tried their best to be neutral, it just looks really naive in hindsight. I've read that the King of Belgium spearheaded the neutral phase of Belgian diplomacy, so perhaps he could be convinced to be more reasonable.
Yes. They've never intended to declare war against the Allies in the first place. It was the other way round.
Once it was clear Belgium is heavily fortified, well guarded by the then thought world's most powerful army (France), allied with world's largest navy (Britain), Germans would be happy to let things die out to face East again.
Assuming WW2 ends with a failed German westward invasion, what would have been the political effects of it on Belgium?
About 600, 000 men (and apparently up to 300,000 reserves left to be mobilised) which is pretty substantial. Apparently pretty lavishly equipped with artillery, mortars and AT guns, considered well-trained (although conscription time was only 12 months since 1936 so dunno) and with a competent general staff (note this is an American officer saying that in 1938). Tanks and modern aircrafts were lacking but this could be adressed over time considering the fast ramping up of Entente production.
Industrial contribution during such a battle is unclear as some factories around Liège would have been overrun if the line of defense was on the Dyle river and Brussels would have been dangerously close to the frontline, but still a better situation than in WW1.
As with the French army, the Belgians were unable to bring that weight to bear because of the complete collapse of the lines following the Sickle Cut OTL.