1385: Hapsburg instead of Lithuanian marries Polish queen?

[Deleted member 98954]

Europe in 1370: https://www.deviantart.com/randaglar/art/Lithuanian-Russia-Europe-1370-411931189

OTL: Lois Anjou dies in 1382 leaving Hungary, Czech and Silesian lands united at the time under his first daughter Queen Mary of Anjou and her fiancée Sigismund Luxembourg. His second daughter Queen Jadwiga gets Poland and was engaged to William Hapsburg of Austria but the Polish nobles preferred Jagiello of Pagan Lithuania and forced the switch (in order to secure peace on the long eastern border and forge an alliance against the Teutonic Knights, who are an existential threat to Poland too). The rest is history: the conversion of Pagan Lithuania to Catholicism, the Polish-Lithuanian union, the Partitions of Poland and the rise of Prussia and Russia in its wake; the pressure on Hungary by the Turks gives rise to the Hapsburg inheritance of the remaining Hungary, Czech and Silesian lands.

So what if the Polish nobles hadn't been able to force the switch? The Hapsburgs gain Poland in 1385, by marriage. Presumably there's an awkward peace between the Hapsburg domain of Austria-Poland and Mary & Sigismund Luxembourg's Hungary, Czech and Silesian lands plus Brandenburg.

But no alliance let alone peace between Poland and Lithuania, which remains Pagan. No joined-up fight against the Teutonic Knights.

Do the Knights form an alliance against Poland-Austria with the House of Luxembourg? Or against Lithuania with Poland-Austria? The latter is most likely IMHO and it's curtains for Lithuania, to the benefit of the Russian principalities. Unless of course a Habsburg-Luxembourg alliance destroys the Knights in an equivalent-alternative Battle of Grunwald/Tannenberg, without the Lithuanians.

Do the Czech and Silesian lands still turn to Austria as per OTL? And does the Hapsburg control of the Hungary, still happen as per OTL?

Any other interesting outcomes?

 

[krieger]

Europe in 1370: https://www.deviantart.com/randaglar/art/Lithuanian-Russia-Europe-1370-411931189

OTL: Lois Anjou dies in 1382 leaving Hungary, Czech and Silesian lands united at the time under his first daughter Queen Mary of Anjou and her fiancée Sigismund Luxembourg. His second daughter Queen Jadwiga gets Poland and was engaged to William Hapsburg of Austria but the Polish nobles preferred Jagiello of Pagan Lithuania and forced the switch (in order to secure peace on the long eastern border and forge an alliance against the Teutonic Knights, who are an existential threat to Poland too). The rest is history: the conversion of Pagan Lithuania to Catholicism, the Polish-Lithuanian union, the Partitions of Poland and the rise of Prussia and Russia in its wake; the pressure on Hungary by the Turks gives rise to the Hapsburg inheritance of the remaining Hungary, Czech and Silesian lands.

So what if the Polish nobles hadn't been able to force the switch? The Hapsburgs gain Poland in 1385, by marriage. Presumably there's an awkward peace between the Hapsburg domain of Austria-Poland and Mary & Sigismund Luxembourg's Hungary, Czech and Silesian lands plus Brandenburg.

But no alliance let alone peace between Poland and Lithuania, which remains Pagan. No joined-up fight against the Teutonic Knights.

Do the Knights form an alliance against Poland-Austria with the House of Luxembourg? Or against Lithuania with Poland-Austria? The latter is most likely IMHO and it's curtains for Lithuania, to the benefit of the Russian principalities. Unless of course a Habsburg-Luxembourg alliance destroys the Knights in an equivalent-alternative Battle of Grunwald/Tannenberg, without the Lithuanians.

Do the Czech and Silesian lands still turn to Austria as per OTL? And does the Hapsburg control of the Hungary, still happen as per OTL?

Any other interesting outcomes?

At first, Bohemian, Hungarian and Silesian lands weren't united at the time of Louis of Anjou's death - Sigismund wasn't the king of Bohemia, his elder brother, Emperor Wenceslas IV was. And Sigismund's rule in Hungary was far from stable - at that point he wasn't even married to Mary of Anjou, Hungary was ruled by her mother, Elizabeth of Bosnia at that point. TO was far from existential threat from Poland at that time, the reason behind Polish invitation of Jogaila to the throne was greed of Lesser Poland aristocrats (not whole nobility), who sought fertile Ruthenian lands for themselves. If Jogaila option doesn't show up, it doesn't mean that William will get the throne without any problems. How does he overcome an obstacle in form of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siemowit_IV,_Duke_of_Masovia ? He was proclaimed Polish king in 1383 by gathering of Polish nobility supported by archbishop and the most skilled military commander in 1380's Poland - Bartosz of Odolanów was on his side. Jogaila only managed to surpass him by having enthusiastic support of Lesser Polish aristocrats and Lithuanian armed forces. Enthusiastic support of Lesser Polish nobility for Wilhelm is ASB (they don't have anything from accepting Wilhelm) and their forces alone weren't enough to surpass Siemowit, just look how he managed to take Łęczyca (a town of crucial strategic meaning, located in between of Lesser Poland and Greater Poland). The consumated marriage of Hedwig and Wilhelm means only continuation of Siemowit marching south (he stopped only because Jogaila's involement) and Siemowit taking Cracow by force and killing Wilhelm to be able to marry Hedwig. But the policies of King Siemowit would be pro-TO, Lithuania WAS a existential threat to his native Mazovia. But at first, Siemowit would need to reclaim Red Ruthenia from Hungarian hands. @Jan Olbracht

 

[Deleted member 98954]

Thank you. So let's keep it simple: let's play the starting point of the pro-Habsburg faction defeats Siemowit just as the pro-Lithuanian faction did, and William of Austria marries Jadwiga. What's next, for geopolitics?

 

[krieger]

Thank you. So let's keep it simple: let's play the starting point of the pro-Habsburg faction defeats Siemowit just as the pro-Lithuanian faction did, and William of Austria marries Jadwiga. What's next, for geopolitics?

But the thing is, that there wasn't any meaningful pro-Austrian faction. The faction, which blocked Siemowit road to the throne, was pro-Angevin rather than pro-Habsburg and they weren't able to defeat him without foreign help. And Austrian wasn't enough to do this.

 

[Deleted member 98954]

But the thing is, that there wasn't any meaningful pro-Austrian faction. The faction, which blocked Siemowit road to the throne, was pro-Angevin rather than pro-Habsburg and they weren't able to defeat him without foreign help. And Austrian wasn't enough to do this.

Thank you, all understood. Given this is an alternative history forum, I had hoped one could imagine and discuss a 'what if' such as this. So for example what if William raised enough cash to establish / buy up a pro-Austrian faction (plus say got military support from either Brandenburg, the Teutonic order, the Czechs or the Hungarians) and came to the throne - am interested in the geopolitical consequences of that scenario.

 

[krieger]

Thank you, all understood. Given this is an alternative history forum, I had hoped one could imagine and discuss a 'what if' such as this. So for example what if William raised enough cash to establish / buy up a pro-Austrian faction (plus say got military support from either Brandenburg, the Teutonic order, the Czechs or the Hungarians) and came to the throne - am interested in the geopolitical consequences of that scenario.

I think that only possibilty of such "what if" scenario is William ordering an assasination of both Siemowit and Jogaila (and of course this assasinations being succesful). Teutonic Order will be only meaningful ally of king William I of Poland. Brandenburg was held by Jobst of Moravia, who wasn't willing to interfere in Polish internal matters. Hungary was going through the civil war. Wenceslas IV had his own troubles with nobility and Jobst. I think that William will end up as semi-puppet king of TO.

 

[Deleted member 98954]

I think that only possibilty of such "what if" scenario is William ordering an assasination of both Siemowit and Jogaila (and of course this assasinations being succesful). Teutonic Order will be only meaningful ally of king William I of Poland. Brandenburg was held by Jobst of Moravia, who wasn't willing to interfere in Polish internal matters. Hungary was going through the civil war. Wenceslas IV had his own troubles with nobility and Jobst. I think that William will end up as semi-puppet king of TO.

OK then, we're getting there. William arranges murders of Siemowit and Jogaila, there's an alliance with the Teutonic Order. Presumably good for trade out of Danzig/Gdansk. What's next? How do the Czechs and Moravians/Silesians/Brandenburgers react? Is there an immediate Teutonic-Polish crusade against Lithuania?

 

[krieger]

OK then, we're getting there. William arranges murders of Siemowit and Jogaila, there's an alliance with the Teutonic Order. Presumably good for trade out of Danzig/Gdansk. What's next? How do the Czechs and Moravians/Silesians/Brandenburgers react? Is there an immediate Teutonic-Polish crusade against Lithuania?

It depends of outcome of inevitable Lithuanian Civil War between Vytautas (Jogaila's cousin) and Skirigailo (Jogaila's closest advisor and brother). Vytautas will probably be backed by TO and Poland and Skirigailo by Muscovy (he was an Orthodox baptized under name Ivan).

 

[Deleted member 98954]

And what if Siemowit kills Jogaila and comes to the throne?

 

[krieger]

And what if Siemowit kills Jogaila and comes to the throne?

If Siemowit managed to kill Jogaila somehow than we would have an immediate Polish-Lithuanian war.

 

[alexmilman]

OK then, we're getting there. William arranges murders of Siemowit and Jogaila, there's an alliance with the Teutonic Order. Presumably good for trade out of Danzig/Gdansk. What's next? How do the Czechs and Moravians/Silesians/Brandenburgers react? Is there an immediate Teutonic-Polish crusade against Lithuania?

Taking into an account that Lithuania is an independent state just “ordering” execution of its ruler would not be an easy thing for a King of Poland. Not to mention that, as OTL experience demonstrated, whoever rules Lithuania can make an alliance with the Order, especially if he becomes a Catholic, which was not a big deal (IIRC, Witold passed through both Orthodox and Catholic baptism without any visible damage to his health ).
The main impact of an absence of the Polish-Lithuanian union would be a stronger orientation toward the Orthodox component of the Grand Duchy. In practical terms this could go all the way to Lithuania ending up as a center around which consolidation of the Russian states is going to happen with a resulting Russian-Lithuanian state created somewhere in the XV century.

 

[Deleted member 98954]

The main impact of an absence of the Polish-Lithuanian union would be a stronger orientation toward the Orthodox component of the Grand Duchy. In practical terms this could go all the way to Lithuania ending up as a center around which consolidation of the Russian states is going to happen with a resulting Russian-Lithuanian state created somewhere in the XV century.

Yes, this is a fascinating outcome. One could even see the capital being moved to Kiev if the Teutonic Order and Poland put pressure on the north-west of the state. However, I'm not sure that conversion to Orthodoxy is a given (as you know, OTL the conversion to Catholicism was mainly to seal the deal with Poland at Poland's request, and not only to remove the Order's pretext for conquest). Also, they might not even get that far if surrounded by enemies. You could see a partition of the state by the the Teutonic Order and Poland plus the Russian principalities, or a breakaway-resurgent principality of Kiev rising up out of Lithuania's ashes.

 

[Deleted member 98954]

If Siemowit managed to kill Jogaila somehow than we would have an immediate Polish-Lithuanian war.

What's interesting here is that in both scenarios of alternative husbands for Jadwiga (regardless of the chances of assassinating other suitors), we've got a Polish-Lithuanian war. Let's play that out.

 

[alexmilman]

Yes, this is a fascinating outcome. One could even see the capital being moved to Kiev if the Teutonic Order and Poland put pressure on the north-west of the state. However, I'm not sure that conversion to Orthodoxy is a given (as you know, OTL the conversion to Catholicism was mainly to seal the deal with Poland at Poland's request, and not only to remove the Order's pretext for conquest). Also, they might not even get that far if surrounded by enemies. You could see a partition of the state by the the Teutonic Order and Poland plus the Russian principalities, or a breakaway-resurgent principality of Kiev rising up out of Lithuania's ashes.

Kiev would be rather unlikely place because of its exposure to a potential Tatar attack but even within the OTL Lithuania of Witold’s time there would plenty of places: Lithuania owned, in the modern terms, Belorussian, a big part of Ukraine and Smolensk region.

As for the conversion, a big part of the population in the Grand Duchy (probably more than a half) was at that time Orthodox and Witold was baptized in Orthodox before he became a Catholic. The Orthodox Church was Christian so the issue of the crusading, etc. is not applicable. In OTL the main issue was true/false conversion of Samogitia and its revolt against Order’s rule (and Witold’s role in inciting the rebels).

Polish-Order alliance could keep for a while but sooner or later they would be at each other throats as it was in OTL and with a smart policy the princes of Lithuania could make it sooner rather than later.

Conquest of Lithuania (taking into an account it’s size) seems to be highly unlikely by a number of reasons. Order was successfully campaigning on Lithuanian territory but with the available resources permanent conquest was impossible. Adding Poland to the equation would not change too much in that sense: warfare in the midst of the forests and swamps always was difficult and, while Lithuanians had been very short of a heavy cavalry, they were excellent raiders and guerilla fighters. With Belorussian and Ukraine Lithuania had a huge strategic depth which would make its destruction highly unlikely. Russian principalities allying with the Catholic Order and Poland against Orthodox Lithuania is unlikely scenario (in OTL the only Lithuanian troops that did not flee from the field at Grunwald were those from the Russian principalities).

Regarding being surrounded by the enemies, Witold hardly was surrounded by them: on the East he was “protector” of Novgorod and “protector” of the Great Princedom of Moscow (ruled by his grandson with his daughter acting as a regent). He also owned Smolensk and Tula, was overlord of the Princedoms of Ryazan Twer and Pronsk and was on the friendly terms with most of the Khans of the Golden Horde. It is not impossible to imagine that in a proposed scenario approximately the same results could be achieved by Jogaila (especially if he manages to kill Witold).

So, if Lithuania sticks to the Orthodoxy, it has a very good chance to replace OTL Moscow as the center of Russian consolidation.

Of course, the fundamental issue of the weird succession rules remains a major problem for Lithuania.

 

[krieger]

Taking into an account that Lithuania is an independent state just “ordering” execution of its ruler would not be an easy thing for a King of Poland. Not to mention that, as OTL experience demonstrated, whoever rules Lithuania can make an alliance with the Order, especially if he becomes a Catholic, which was not a big deal (IIRC, Witold passed through both Orthodox and Catholic baptism without any visible damage to his health ).
The main impact of an absence of the Polish-Lithuanian union would be a stronger orientation toward the Orthodox component of the Grand Duchy. In practical terms this could go all the way to Lithuania ending up as a center around which consolidation of the Russian states is going to happen with a resulting Russian-Lithuanian state created somewhere in the XV century.

I was speaking about arranged assasination before William becomes Polish king. If Jogaila is still alive, William's chances of marrying Hedwig are equal to zero. And assasinations of rulers of Lithuania happened. TO contributed to Mindaugas's assasination.

 

[alexmilman]

I was speaking about arranged assasination before William becomes Polish king. If Jogaila is still alive, William's chances of marrying Hedwig are equal to zero. And assasinations of rulers of Lithuania happened. TO contributed to Mindaugas's assasination.

Assassination could happen but to build a whole line of a reasoning based on that premise making that line somewhat shaky in the terms of a general probability. And if it is successful, what are the potential consequences besides elimination of a competitor to the throne? For example, would or would not the Lithuanians consider it as an action demanding a retaliation? Not because everybody was fond of Jageila but as a matter of a principle (only we have a right to assassinate each other!) with the following extensive railings for which Wilhelm would be blamed?

OTOH, if Jogaila is murdered and Witold manages to take power, Lithuania could do quite well without being linked to Poland by union. Especially taking into an account what you wrote earlier about potential problems that Wilhelm could/would encounter in Poland. And of course, without the union that strengthened Catholic component of Lithuanian population, the Orthodox faction may get an upper hand with, as I already wrote, Lithuania having a good chance to become a center of the Russian unification.

 

[krieger]

Assassination could happen but to build a whole line of a reasoning based on that premise making it improbable. OTOH, if Jogaila is murdered and Witold manages to take power, Lithuania could do quite well without being linked to Poland

I didn't deny it, I just simply stated that both TO and Poland will be hostile towards Lithuania. But it wouldn't mean their automatic victory over Lithuania.

 

[Deleted member 98954]

So in the scenarios of (i) a King Siemowit Piast of Poland and (ii) a King William Habsburg of Poland and the ensuing Polish-Lithuanian war, what are the reactions of:

Brandenburg
Silesia
Moravia
Bohemia
Hungary

 

[krieger]

So in the scenarios of (i) a King Siemowit Piast of Poland and (ii) a King William Habsburg of Poland and the ensuing Polish-Lithuanian war, what are the reactions of:

Brandenburg
Silesia
Moravia
Bohemia
Hungary

Brandenburg - isn't going to do much, is mortgaged to Jobst of Moravia
Silesia - is part of Bohemian crown, consisted of many small fiefs held by Piasts and direct possesion of Bohemian king, only prince who had a "say" in Polish affairs, Ladislaus of Opole is going to suport either Siemowit (his sister is wife of Ladislaus) or William (he supported him IOTL)
Moravia - is part of a Bohemian crown
Bohemia - interests of House of Luxembourg aren't endangered, they wouldn't interfere
Hungary - is going through a nice civil war and it's queen is imprisoned

 

[Deleted member 98954]

Bohemia - interests of House of Luxembourg aren't endangered, they wouldn't interfere

Wouldn't they at least take the opportunity to have a free hand to consolidate their Silesian position?

Or use the ensuing Lithuanian war for some concessions? Say, demanding a reiteration of Kazimierz's renouncement of the Polish claim to Silesia?

Might they be tempted at having a go at Brandenburg, given their free hand?

In the case of a William of Poland and Austria, wouldn't it bother them about being outflanked, given that Poland had only recently (under Kazimierz) renounced its claim on Silesia? Might they be tempted to enter the war on Lithuania's side, or to persuade the TO not to enter it?​