2008: Iowa to South Carolina
Al Gore patiently waited behind the stage. The sound of a roaring crowd filled the air, drowning out the speaker. Standing next to him was his wife, Tipper. He glanced at the former First Lady, a smile dominating her face. It was a rare public appearance for Gore, who had largely avoided the cameras since he was defeated in 2004. That defeat was horribly demoralizing. Gore had spent most of his adult life positioning himself for the White House. He helped move the Democratic Party towards the center, immersed himself in environmental and national security issues, and ensured that he was prepared when the time came. Losing the Democratic nomination in 1988 was tough, but he was just a young Tennessee Senator and had plenty of time left. But in 1992 Gore hesitated, and was forced to take the running-mate spot instead of the presidential nomination. Still, he did his job diligently and became the Clinton Administration’s face for government reform, shrinking the federal bureaucracy, and slashing red tape. Finally, Gore got his well earned reward in 2000. But it took just four years after winning the most valuable prize in politics before it was snatched away.
The next three years were difficult for Gore. He returned home to Tennessee, retrofitting his home with solar panels and beginning his memoirs. Few journalists made the journey to Nashville, as the President and his family preferred to enjoy the privacy of civilian life. But there were some venues where Gore appeared. He joined Apple’s Board of Directors and publically campaigned against the controversial compromise energy bill signed by his successor. But besides those few glimpses, Al Gore remained elusive. When the 2008 election rolled around, few expected him to run or even make a public endorsement. Gore felt the same way, at least initially. He had no desire for a comeback tour, and didn’t want to ruffle any feathers by making an early endorsement. Besides, many of the Democratic candidates had embraced Gore’s centrist policies and non-ideological style. What made one any better than the others?
But then something changed. As he watched the candidates debate one another and give grand speeches, a switch flicked in Gore’s brain. There was one man who he would support, one man who could both defeat John McCain and bring back some life to the Democratic Party. He wasn’t the most centrist candidate or the frontrunner in the polls or in fundraising, but there was just something special about John Edwards. He was handsome and charismatic, even Kennedy-esque. But there was something more. Edwards spoke of the “Two Americas” and taking on the challenges few other candidates mentioned. This was somewhat Gore’s doing. He was a founding member of the Democratic Leadership Council, the centrist organization devoted to moving the Democratic Party away from the left. They were largely successful, but in doing so had not only moderated the Party’s ideology but also its message. Democrats didn’t take on the big problems, the sort that FDR, JFK, and LBJ grabbed by the horns. Al Gore thought John Edwards could be that transcendent candidate who took the more centrist policy prescriptions of the DLC and combine them with a grand, progressive image of what America could be.
And so President Gore stood behind the stage, waiting for his moment to endorse Senator Edwards. Finally, former Senator John Culver uttered those great words “Please welcome my good friend; a great President and a great man, Al Gore!” With a newfound sense of energy, Gore jogged up to the podium and embraced Culver. He turned to Edwards and grabbed him by the shoulders. Gore looked more like Bill Clinton than the tired man who ran for reelection just three years earlier. Gore proceeded to give a rousing speech, claiming that Edwards “represented the best parts of the American spirit: courage, dedication, and a desire to right the wrongs of the past with new, innovative solutions.” It was a clear endorsement of the Edwards’s platform and of the dark horse’s candidacy. As he walked off the stage to cheers of “Gore! Gore! Gore!,” the former President was confident his endorsement would push Edwards across the finish line in the crucial Iowa Caucuses, if not the nomination.
But it didn’t exactly work that way. Instead of celebrating the return of Gore, the media played out a different scenario. This was Clinton vs. Gore all over again. Gore’s endorsement wasn’t about crowing a new standard bearer for the Democrats; it was about proving his superiority to the Clinton dynasty and sticking it to his Vice-President, Joe Lieberman, who often appeared too close to comfort with John McCain. When asked to comment, Bill Clinton quipped “Al’s got the right to endorse whoever he wants, but I’m a little surprised to see him pick a candidate who’s running away from the accomplishments of our Administration.” Gore continued to campaign with Edwards in Iowa, but his support didn’t give the same boost he hoped for.
The Iowa Caucuses had slightly less importance in 2008. Hillary Clinton had largely ignored the state, shifting her focus to New Hampshire. The Hawkeye State was left to Edwards, Russ Feingold, and Tom Daschle. The media spun the race as something of a “Clinton vs. everyone else.” Lieberman’s poll numbers had dropped considerably as the race wore on. His center-right stances on many issues rubbed the still-liberal base the wrong way, and he received few prominent endorsements. Clinton’s economic message mitigated her other “New Democratic” stances as she talked about defending the middle class from corporate greed and failed Republican policies. Meanwhile, the left was divided between Edwards, Feingold, and John Kerry. Clinton’s well-funded campaign and experienced team happily waited in frigid New Hampshire for whoever came out of Iowa.
The results of the caucuses weren’t too surprising. Edwards narrowly bested Feingold, whose dovish progressivism and frenzied campaigning helped him overtake better funded candidates for second place. Finishing in third was Hillary Clinton, whose supporters still turned out despite her minimal campaigning in the state. In fourth and fifth were Daschle and Lieberman, respectfully. That was bad news for both of them. Finally, Kerry, Biden, and Sharpton wrapped up the field. Following the results in Iowa, Biden and Daschle dropped out of the race. The two members of the Senate had failed to pick up adequate traction among the Democratic base, and they never seemed to do well enough in the debates. Biden held off on endorsing any candidate, while Daschle implicitly supported Edwards saying “Senator Edwards looks like the man with the momentum right now, and I’ve got to say that he’d make a great nominee.”
Polls in New Hampshire showed Clinton ahead, but with Edwards surging ahead of John Kerry. Russ Feingold also made gains, pushing Lieberman practically into last place. But Edwards’s message wasn’t designed for the independent, more libertarian voters of New Hampshire. Clinton focused on toughness and making strides for women. She dominated that segment of the population, while also polling very well among white working class men. Edwards’ performed strongly among farmers and the poor, but that wouldn’t be enough to win. But when the votes were counted, Edwards finished just four points behind Clinton who had polled ahead by as much as a dozen-points two weeks before the primary. Kerry edged Feingold for third, but Lieberman fell to fifth and dropped out. Unlike Biden and Dashcle, Lieberman openly supported Clinton as “the best possible choice to defend our homeland security and win the war on terror.” Kerry also withdrew despite his third place finish. He withheld an endorsement.
And so it was a dogfight between Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into South Carolina. Polls in that state had been close ever since Edwards triumphed in Iowa. His polling position had only gone up, but Clinton still held strong support among key voting blocs: women, white men, and African-Americans. Edwards’s populist positions had so-far failed to gain traction among blacks, who still supported Clinton largely for her husband’s legacy. The potential spoiler could be Reverend Al Sharpton, who had a strong following among the African-American community. But the real key was Clinton’s massive organizational advantage. Edwards lacked the funds in 2007 to build an adequate campaign structure in many states, especially South Carolina. The polls were close, and the state wasn’t called until close to midnight. But the winner was Clinton, a crucial victory and a sign of how close the race would be going forward.