Decision Points: The Presidency of Al Gore
- Thread starter hcallega
- Start date
The Race is Won
Senator Hillary Clinton’s inner-circle, dubbed “Hillaryland,” is as tight nit a political club can be. It is a fiercely loyal and well organized team of longtime Clinton loyalists and aides to the former First Lady. They are professionals, but they are also friends. They are also almost entirely women who fought through the cultural battles of the 1990s alongside their commander. While they lost many PR battles, Hillaryland won the war. As soon as Hillary Clinton left the White House, she moved into the Senate. Her victory in 2000 would have surprised many well-schooled political pundits just a few years earlier, when the President was embroiled in a sex scandal leading to his impeachment while the First Lady stood as one of the nation’s most polarizing figures. But Hillaryland was victorious in the New York Senate race because they understood how strong Clinton could be. She ran in many ways as the continuation of her husband’s legacy, as well as a trailblazer for women’s rights. Hillary had her own style. She was serious where her husband was relaxed, focused on the issues while he was focused on shaking hands and making friends. That rubbed some people the wrong way, but not enough to deter her from victory.
When Senator Clinton arrived in Washington, she was already being touted as a potential presidential candidate. But that could be as big of a negative as a positive in the capital, where ambitious show horses often see their wings clipped by experienced, no frills, workhorses. Clinton knew that the Clydesdales beat the ponies, and she had little interest in getting stomped down. Instead, she developed an intense focus, choosing to delve head-first into health care and foreign policy issues. She also cultivated relationships with some of the chamber’s most prominent members on both sides of the aisle, such as Ted Kennedy and Bill Frist. Clinton positioned herself as a centrist Democrat at a time when the party was beginning to experience ideological rifts. Progressives, led by Paul Wellstone and Kennedy, were frustrated by President Gore’s few and far between efforts to address their longtime pet causes. Meanwhile, centrists grew increasingly concerned that Gore’s lackluster charisma and personal popularity would drive down the party’s electoral support. Many turned to Clinton to take up her husband’s mantle and act as a counterweight to both the White House and liberals. But she largely declined, instead tending to support the Administration on the majority of issues. She did take a more combative tone on foreign policy, arguing that the President should take a harder line against Iraq and other state sponsors of terrorism.
After the 2004 elections, Senator Clinton was the obvious frontrunner for the Democratic Party’s nomination in 2008. She held solid leads in name recognition, fundraising, and polling. But she was also very polarizing, much more so than her fellow Senator, John Edwards, or Vice-President Joe Lieberman. To correct this problem, Clinton spent the next two years softening her image. While retaining her pro-choice position, she emphasized moral values and called on video game developers to tone down violence in their products. She regularly attended the national prayer breakfast, and worked with President McCain on immigration and the environment. Though her legislative achievements were scarce, Senator Clinton had become a strong force on Capitol Hill.
When it was time to declare her candidacy in January of 2007, Hillary Clinton was ready to go. Her team had begun organizing in the early states and super-fundraisers were at her beck-and-call. As the campaign continued through that year and into the next, it was Hillaryland which kept the candidate afloat. Victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada put her in the driver’s seat, with only Edwards remaining in the rearview window. The next series of primaries, Super Tuesday, would largely decide the race. This geographically diverse series of contests could knock Edwards out of the race, or boost him into the frontrunner’s role. But for that to happen, he would have to get lucky. Clinton had largely locked up the large northeastern and west coast states, where her superior fundraising and organization acted as a firewall to Edwards. But the smaller primaries and caucuses, where Clinton invested less time and money, were a golden opportunity to the North Carolina Senator. Polls generally showed that Clinton would win the majority of states, but not enough to clinch the nomination. It was crucial that Edwards perform well enough to be in position to defeat Clinton in the later states.
The polls correctly predicted that Clinton would win big in the biggest states. She won California by a commanding margin, racking up particularly large margins in Los Angeles and San Francisco. She also won Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. These victories gave Clinton a commanding lead in the delegate count and in public perception. She was the front-runner, and had effectively cemented herself in the minds of many Democrats as the likely nominee. But Edwards wasn’t done yet. His small-state focus kept him alive, at least for the moment. He was victorious in Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota, North Dakota, and surprisingly, Georgia. In that state, Edwards narrowly edged Clinton due to the late endorsement of Al Sharpton (who recently dropped out of the race) and other African-American leaders. On Tuesday night, Edwards addressed the nation and claimed victory: “Tonight proved that we aren’t finished yet. I’m going to fight for the American people as long as I can, until I simply cannot any more.”
The days and weeks following Super Tuesday proved to be more of a victory lap for Senator Clinton than expected. She won victories in Washington and Nebraska on February 9th, with Edwards narrowly defeating her in Louisiana. Clinton went on to sweep the “Potomac Primary,” winning Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, along with Maine. As her victories, and delegate count, piled up, it was increasingly clear that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee. The last nail in the coffin was Senator Ted Kennedy, who endorsed Clinton shortly after she won the Nevada caucuses and Hawaii primary on February 19th: “It’s clear to me, and to most Democrats out there, that Hillary Clinton is the best person to lead our party forward. She has the experience, the drive, and the commitment necessary to be a truly great president. I was proud to vote for her, and I now I am proud to let the nation know that she is my pick to be President of the United States.” Edwards remained in the race for another week, but without any major victories under his belt, the one-time Democratic “rock star” dropped out of the race and endorsed Hillary Clinton.
With the Democratic nomination wrapped up, Hillary Clinton shifted her focus to the general election. Snow was still falling in much of the country when she made her “campaign kickoff” speech in Detroit, Michigan. Flanked by her husband, Senators Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, and Governor Jim Blanchard, Clinton announced that “Today is about more than winning an election. Today is about America’s comeback. For years, great cities like Detroit have seen their factories close, jobs head overseas, and their houses become vacant. For too long, our leaders haven’t done enough to fight back. I’ve served in Washington for over seven years. I know how easy it is to forget about working families, like those here today. But after being out on the campaign trail and talking with hundreds of wonderful, hard-working Americans who see government do too little to help their cities or towns, I promise that as President of the United States I will have laser-focus on the economy and renewing the American Dream.”As Clinton wrapped up the Democratic nomination, John McCain was focused on the difficult day-to-day operations of serving as President of the United States. The death of Osama bin Laden in late 2007 had been a blessing to his approval ratings, taking them from the low-50s to the high-60s. Polls consistently showed that voters trusted the President to handle international relations and ensure America’s national security. However, there was still a great deal of skepticism surrounding McCain’s economic management. Oil prices remained frustratingly high throughout 2007 while the once-booming housing market was stumbling. In response, Congressional Democrats pushed for a stimulus package containing tax rebates to low and middle income families, increased food stamp aid, and extended unemployment benefits. The President opposed this plan, calling it “faulty economics” and fiscally irresponsible. While he endorsed the rebates, McCain opposed using a weak economy as an excuse to expand the social safety net. Working with Congress, McCain was able to craft a plan that would offer rebates greater than initially proposed by either Democrats or himself, without extending food stamps or unemployment benefits. The end result was a bill that many economists criticized as flawed and politically motivated. Nonetheless, the legislation received bipartisan support in Congress and was passed by wide margins in both houses.
The President faced other challenges in the winter and spring of 2008 besides the economy. A series of conflicts in the developing world, namely Africa, put a strain on the Administration’s diplomatic efforts. Closer to home were calls from the left and the right to begin winding down the war in Afghanistan. While the death of bin Laden validated the increased focus by the McCain Administration on destroying the al-Qaeda network had paid off, it also granted weight to claims that it was time to bring the troops home. After all, wasn’t bin Laden the mastermind of the terrorist attacks that began the war on terror? Despite the decrease in popularity for the war, legislation sponsored by Congressmen Jim McGovern and Ron Paul setting a timetable for withdrawal received just under 100 voters, far short of the 218 needed for passage.
But it was the economy that continued to damage the President’s popularity the most. Even as stimulus checks were being sent in the mail, the housing market continued to slide. This downturn was largely due to the unsustainable growth earlier in the decade, which was based on housing purchases and the extension of credit. Sustaining this growth required banks and other lenders to make riskier and riskier loans to individuals and families who couldn’t afford to pay for them. However, companies like Lehman Brothers still appeared financial sound due to a series of tricks and gimmicks that graded risky loans as Triple-A. Making matters worse, risk was systemically distributed throughout the financial system through credit-default swaps and other derivatives which were unregulated. As demand for housing began to fall, and homeowners began to default on their mortgages, the financial system began to feel the strain. Congress attempted to alleviate the burden by passing legislation incentivizing consumers to purchase previously foreclosed houses, a farm bill intending to bolster the agricultural sector, and an extension of unemployment benefits. All three pieces of legislation were vetoed by President McCain, who once again labeled them “imprudent and poorly written laws built on winning elections.” But in all three cases, Congress overrode the President’s veto. The worsening economy began to impact the polls as well. McCain’s lead, which was as high as eight-points in the winter, had fallen to within the margin of error. But he couldn’t possibly anticipate what would happen next.
Hint hint, foreshadow foreshadow
As my high school English teacher would remark. I've made many 2008 EV Maps using Leips' Election Atlas inspired by your TLs. A deciding factor of course is any alt-GFC. If it's "on schedule" the incumbent is screwed; delay the bulk of it until the second Tuesday in November and the incumbent wins but victory is a poisoned chalice.But overall the US domestically and federally is more financially sound than OTL right? Gore's painful term kept the books balanced and avoided Iraq; McCain passed a big tax cut, but it is later and shallower than OTL. On the other hand, the same regulators made the same decisions, I gather, since much of that was pre-POD.... So, who's gonna get caught with the hot potato and how hot is it?
As for a running mate, if he had kept his seat in 2002, I idly thought Max Cleland of GA would be a good war-veteran bulwark and manly figure to keep McCain and sexists at bay. Can't remember if he kept his seat TTL?
Hillary's victory in the primaries went pretty much as expected. Ultimately, Edwards just didn't have what it took to become the figurehead of a wide, popular movement like Obama.
As for the big surprise that's gonna happen, I have my own suspicions, but I'm not gonna vocalize them for fear of jinxing it.
As for the big surprise that's gonna happen, I have my own suspicions, but I'm not gonna vocalize them for fear of jinxing it.
Oh, I'm sure there will be not just a third option, but a forth, fifth and sixth as well. It's just that, like OTL, they will together get a whopping 1-2 % of the vote.
A realistic clincher for Clinton.
Unfortunately, the crash can't really be countered by somewhat better fiscal policy that didn't completely reform financial regulation years ago.
McCain's certainly not acting like someone who wants to win an election. Actually, McCain flat-out refusing to endorse anything close to counter-cyclical stimulus could result in a clear-cut mandate for a pretty significant package if Clinton is elected.
Unfortunately, the crash can't really be countered by somewhat better fiscal policy that didn't completely reform financial regulation years ago.
McCain's certainly not acting like someone who wants to win an election. Actually, McCain flat-out refusing to endorse anything close to counter-cyclical stimulus could result in a clear-cut mandate for a pretty significant package if Clinton is elected.
As for the big surprise that's gonna happen, I have my own suspicions, but I'm not gonna vocalize them for fear of jinxing it.
Well, we all know what it is... unless it is that other thing
Not really. They have an entirely different back story. Sure, Hillary Clinton is the same but she's not event the "same Hillary Clinton" as in that timeline as different events have shaped her and her views.
That's true. He's not taking it word for word. He is probably using the elements of it and adapting it to the circumstances of TTL.
I don't see a comparison between the two. Yes, Hillary's the same, but you can use a relevant political figure and have her win in two separate timelines.
I agree with this strongly. Circumstances change everything. In OTL 2008, the Iraq War was still a huge issue, and here it's relatively avoided, for example. I'll also note without the bitter primary battle with Obama, I think Hillary's image and minority appeal is higher here. Also, her priorities might not be in the same order, i.e. universal health care.
So clearly I haven't been updating this timeline recently. Honestly, I just haven't been as interested in it, and I've been working. But I'm not just going to leave you hanging. I've written this wrap-up post, and will answer any questions going forward.
P.S.: Barack Obama won the Chicago Mayoral Election in 2011 ITTL
Recap
2008 Presidential Election: After winning the Democratic Party’s nomination for President, Senator Hillary Clinton selected Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana as her running-mate. They faced off against President John McCain and Vice-President John Engler in the general election. The President held a steady lead between 2-3 points for most of the race, due in large part to his handling of foreign policy and national security issues. However, the economy and growing housing crisis favored Senator Clinton. The floodgates broke in the fall with the failure of the financial sector, requiring a massive government bailout. President McCain was faulted for failing to take leadership during this crisis of confidence, as he largely deferred to Congress to shape the bailouts. Treasury Secretary Phil Gramm made matters worse when he attributed the housing market’s failure to “irresponsible behavior by homeowners” instead of the risky loans made by the banks and mortgage clearinghouses. These events game Senator Clinton the momentum, as Clinton promised a moratorium on foreclosures and a tighter regulatory structure if elected. The debates further helped Clinton, as she appeared more forceful in her answers to the questions presented. Namely, when asked how she would turn the economy around, Clinton stated “I will use every weapon in my arsenal. We can’t afford to beat around the bush any longer: We’re in a recession, and it’s getting worse. The American people need strong, decisive economic leadership, and frankly, they’re not getting it from the McCain Administration.” On election night, the Clinton-Bayh ticket defeated the incumbent White House by a comfortable margin, with most voters claiming the country was on the wrong track and that the economy was their biggest issue. Democrats picked up seats in Alaska (Mark Begich), Colorado (Mark Udall), Louisiana (John Neely Kennedy), New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), New Mexico (Tom Udall), North Carolina (Kay Hagan), and Virginia (Mark Warner), while losing Georgia (Jack Kingston). This gave the Democrats a 55-45 majority (Evan Bayh’s replacement was Republican Mitch Daniels). In the House, Democrats picked up two-dozen seats to cement their majority over the Republicans.
Senator Hillary Clinton/Senator Evan Bayh (D): 54% of the PV, 351 EVs
President John McCain/Vice-President John Engler (R): 45% of the PV, 187 EVs
President Hillary Clinton’s First Term: Upon taking office, President Clinton’s first task was to stabilize the economy. The fall of 2008 had seen unemployment sharply rise as other industries felt the burden of the collapsed housing market. In response, the President proposed a trillion-dollar stimulus package containing tax relief, a bailout for state and local governments, and infrastructure spending. Largely crafted by Treasury Secretary Jon Corzine and CEA Chairman Larry Summers, this plan drew considerable support from Democrats and managed to pass the House by a narrow margin (many Blue Dogs balked at the scope of the plan). However, the plan lacked the support to pass the Senate. In response, a compromise $700 billion proposal was crafted by Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME). This plan managed to pass 60-40, with four Republicans joining every Democrat in support. This final plan managed to pass the House by a much more comfortable margin, with most Democrats and many northeastern and Midwestern Republicans supporting the bill. The President followed up this victory with a restructuring of the auto industry to avoid the collapse of GM and Chevrolet. The focus of 2009 and 2010 was on financial reform legislation. Clinton maintained throughout her first term that her focus was on “the economy, jobs, and helping the middle class get back on their feet.” Therefore, progressive causes such as environmental, immigration, and healthcare reform were put on the backburner. In the winter of 2010, the Dodd-Frank Accountability Act was passed by both Houses of Congress after much debate. This legislation consolidated the government’s regulatory agencies, brought derivative trading onto public marketplaces, created a consumer protection agency, tightened regulations on credit rating agencies, and created processes for the Treasury to help wind-down bankrupt financial firms. This package was criticized from the left for failing to address the “too big to fail” banks which emerged during the 2000s, and from the right for creating a new layer of bureaucracy with the Consumer Protection Agency. Nonetheless, most Democrats supported the bill and it passed the Senate by a 60-40 vote and the House by an equally narrow margin. Finally, President Clinton signed the American Jobs Act in the fall of 2010. This legislation established a payroll tax holiday, extended unemployment benefits and rewarded employers for hiring the long-term out of work, authorized over $100 billion in funding for infrastructure and support for state governments, created a National Infrastructure Bank, and appropriated funding for greater WI-FI access. This plan passed the House by a wide margin and the Senate with 64 votes.
On foreign policy, the new Administration took a greater focus on international cooperation in the war on terror. The President worked hand-in-hand with European leaders to increase their contributions to the rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan, while announcing that all ground troops would be home by 2012. Clinton also devoted a great deal of time to working on the peace process in the Middle East. Working with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Clinton was a part of several peace talks between Israel and Palestine, yet did not see any major breakthroughs. More importantly, the Arab Spring revolts in 2011 and 2012 saw an increased role for the United States in the troubled region. In Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen, national leaders were ousted in favor of democratic and coalition governments, while many other regimes were forced to enact political and economic reforms. In Libya, Syria, and Iraq, full-scale civil wars erupted against the dictatorial regimes. The United States provided financial and military support to the rebels in all-three nations, and took part in an international no-fly zone above Libya, helping oust Colonel Gaddafi. The fighting in Syria and Iraq remained particularly severe, and Clinton announced at the end of 2012 that the United States would provide greater support in the coming months.
The 2010 midterm elections saw increased Republican support in the wake of a growing budget deficit, a weak economy, and international turmoil. While President Clinton remained somewhat popular, her support had weakened considerably among large segments of the population. Most Americans had seen their economic wellbeing fall during 2009 and 2010, and unemployment was still above 8%. The Republican Party articulated a program of tax and spending cuts, along with cutting bureaucratic red-tape and slashing regulations. House Minority Leader Roy Blunt, in announcing the Republican “Pathway to Prosperity” platform, attacked President Clinton for “failing to learn the lessons of the 1990s, when Bill Clinton and Al Gore understood that balanced budgets, cutting spending, and easing the regulatory burden on innovators created jobs and prosperity.” Democrats countered by arguing that Republican policies would stifle the recovery and make matters worse. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, fighting a tough reelection bid of his own, argued that “If you vote for the Republicans, you’re voting for a return to 2008, when the housing market collapsed, the financial system went into a free-fall, and the entire economy went into recession. Republicans didn’t do anything to help the middle class then, and they won’t now either.” The hard-fought campaign ended with Republicans picking up the Senate, gaining seats in Alaska (Mike Chenault), Arkansas (John Boozman), Colorado (Jane Norton), Connecticut (Rob Simmons), Delaware (Mike Castle), Florida (Charlie Crist), Nevada (Sue Lowden), North Carolina (Sue Myrick), North Dakota (John Hoeven), and Pennsylvania (Tom Ridge). Democrats picked up the seat in Arizona, where former Governor Bruce Babbitt defeated Senator J.D. Hayworth by a narrow margin. Democrats narrowly maintained control of the House of Representatives.
The loss of the Senate forced President Clinton to work within a new reality. It was unlikely that health care reform or another round of economic stimulus would be possible. Now she would be forced to work with Mitch McConnell to pass any legislation. Taking a picture from her husband, Clinton decided to work with Republicans on select issues while attacking them on others. The principal point of agreement was on deficit reduction. Despite the relative fiscal prudence of the 2000s, the national debt was rising rapidly in the face of the weak economy and the war on terror. Republicans campaigned heavily on reigning in spending and promised to balance the budget. They were joined by a cadre of Democrats, primarily members of the Blue Dog Coalition. While balancing the budget required significant cuts to popular programs and was politically impossible, the President was willing to work with Republicans to pass a deficit reduction plan tied to raising the debt ceiling for two years. Talks between the President and Congress began in the spring of 2011, and featured a broad group of lawmakers. Representing Congressional Republicans were McConnell, Blunt, and Dave Camp. On the Democratic side were Max Baucus, Nancy Pelosi, and John Spratt. The President and Treasury Secretary Corzine represented the Administration. Clinton and the Democrats initially wanted a balanced plan which would balance spending cuts with tax increases. Republicans opposed tax cuts, instead supporting a plan that only cut spending. After several weeks of negotiations, a final compromise plan was announced. A 3:1 ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases was announced. The cuts came primarily in discretionary spending, while the revenue came through closing tax loopholes. This moderate plan drew the ire of those on the far ends of the political spectrum, but ultimately passed both Houses of Congress in the summer of 2011 by wide margins. The legislation came in three sections. The first was increasing the debt ceiling through 2013 and spending cuts. This was followed by tax reform legislation, which had a deadline of January 1, 2013, or else the McCain Tax Cuts would be repealed. This was considered a major victory for the White House, and the President personally lobbied many Democrats to support the deal.
The 2012 Presidential Election: With President Clinton’s approval ratings on the rise, Republicans were faced with challenging prospects for taking back the White House. Unlike in 2004, Clinton was not seen as ineffective or doing too little to win the war on terror. The economy remained the biggest issue on voters’ minds, and while they were divided over Clinton’s policies, generally believed she had taken positive steps in response to the collapse of the housing market. The passage of the stimulus, jobs act, Dodd-Frank, and a significant debt deal gave the President a great deal to run on. The Republican candidates were forced to focus more on their own accomplishments rather than on Clinton’s weaknesses. Nonetheless, the field was quite large and encompassed a fairly large swath of ideologies. The early frontrunners for the nomination were Senators George Allen and Charlie Crist, and Governors Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, and Mark Sanford. Second-tier candidates included Governors Steve Largent, Bob Riley, Mike Huckabee, and Jon Hunstman, along with perennial candidate, Congressman Ron Paul. However, the race took a series of turns early on that would shape the outcome. Senator Crist, who voiced support for the stimulus as Governor of Florida and supported Roe v. Wade when running for the Senate in 1998, was unable to gain traction among conservatives. He was also accused as being an “office-hopper” due to his candidacy for President just a year after arriving in the Senate. Governor Pery struggled in the debates, often failing to grasp the specifics of issues. But it was the Iowa Caucuses that offered the most surprises. Little-known Governor Mike Huckabee finished in first over a divided field, due in large part to social conservatives and evangelicals who rallied to his candidacy. But Huckabee lacked sufficient funds, and had little organization in New Hampshire. George Allen, the national front-runner, was victorious in that contest. South Carolina produced a third winner when Governor Sanford defeated Huckabee. The crucial primary was in Florida, where Allen had taken a lead over Crist and Sanford. His superior fundraising and ground-game gave him a surprisingly strong victory, followed by a strong performance on Super Tuesday. It was not long before Allen had secured the Republican nomination, choosing Largent as his running-mate.
The focus of the general election was on how to improve the economy. With unemployment still above 7.5%, voters wanted clear solutions. Clinton and Allen presented contrasting plans on how to improve the economy. Allen argued for tax cuts to stimulate growth, while cutting regulations on industry to allow them to hire. He strongly opposed Clinton’s approach to health-care reform, which he called “the biggest job-killer possible.” The President’s approach was quite different. She called for a continuation of past policies, arguing for an expansion of alternative energy and health care reform (to bring down costs in those areas). She also attacked Allen for proposing tax cuts that would “undo the bipartisan work to contain the deficit” enacted in 2011. Polls consistently showed Clinton with a four-to-five point lead heading into Election Day. The debates were fairly uneventful, as Clinton articulately defended her policies but scored few points on Allen, who was unable to land the necessary haymaker. Ultimately, voters put their faith in Clinton and the Democrats, who solidified their control over the House but actually lost two seats in the Senate (North Dakota, Wisconsin). Clinton’s victory was not a landslide, but granted her the opportunity to pursue consensus legislation in her second term.
President Hillary Clinton/Senator Evan Bayh (D), 53% of the PV, 342 EVs
Senator George Allen/Governor Steve Largent (R): 46% of the PV, 196 EVs
P.S.: Barack Obama won the Chicago Mayoral Election in 2011 ITTL
Recap
2008 Presidential Election: After winning the Democratic Party’s nomination for President, Senator Hillary Clinton selected Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana as her running-mate. They faced off against President John McCain and Vice-President John Engler in the general election. The President held a steady lead between 2-3 points for most of the race, due in large part to his handling of foreign policy and national security issues. However, the economy and growing housing crisis favored Senator Clinton. The floodgates broke in the fall with the failure of the financial sector, requiring a massive government bailout. President McCain was faulted for failing to take leadership during this crisis of confidence, as he largely deferred to Congress to shape the bailouts. Treasury Secretary Phil Gramm made matters worse when he attributed the housing market’s failure to “irresponsible behavior by homeowners” instead of the risky loans made by the banks and mortgage clearinghouses. These events game Senator Clinton the momentum, as Clinton promised a moratorium on foreclosures and a tighter regulatory structure if elected. The debates further helped Clinton, as she appeared more forceful in her answers to the questions presented. Namely, when asked how she would turn the economy around, Clinton stated “I will use every weapon in my arsenal. We can’t afford to beat around the bush any longer: We’re in a recession, and it’s getting worse. The American people need strong, decisive economic leadership, and frankly, they’re not getting it from the McCain Administration.” On election night, the Clinton-Bayh ticket defeated the incumbent White House by a comfortable margin, with most voters claiming the country was on the wrong track and that the economy was their biggest issue. Democrats picked up seats in Alaska (Mark Begich), Colorado (Mark Udall), Louisiana (John Neely Kennedy), New Hampshire (Jeanne Shaheen), New Mexico (Tom Udall), North Carolina (Kay Hagan), and Virginia (Mark Warner), while losing Georgia (Jack Kingston). This gave the Democrats a 55-45 majority (Evan Bayh’s replacement was Republican Mitch Daniels). In the House, Democrats picked up two-dozen seats to cement their majority over the Republicans.
President John McCain/Vice-President John Engler (R): 45% of the PV, 187 EVs
President Hillary Clinton’s First Term: Upon taking office, President Clinton’s first task was to stabilize the economy. The fall of 2008 had seen unemployment sharply rise as other industries felt the burden of the collapsed housing market. In response, the President proposed a trillion-dollar stimulus package containing tax relief, a bailout for state and local governments, and infrastructure spending. Largely crafted by Treasury Secretary Jon Corzine and CEA Chairman Larry Summers, this plan drew considerable support from Democrats and managed to pass the House by a narrow margin (many Blue Dogs balked at the scope of the plan). However, the plan lacked the support to pass the Senate. In response, a compromise $700 billion proposal was crafted by Senators Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME). This plan managed to pass 60-40, with four Republicans joining every Democrat in support. This final plan managed to pass the House by a much more comfortable margin, with most Democrats and many northeastern and Midwestern Republicans supporting the bill. The President followed up this victory with a restructuring of the auto industry to avoid the collapse of GM and Chevrolet. The focus of 2009 and 2010 was on financial reform legislation. Clinton maintained throughout her first term that her focus was on “the economy, jobs, and helping the middle class get back on their feet.” Therefore, progressive causes such as environmental, immigration, and healthcare reform were put on the backburner. In the winter of 2010, the Dodd-Frank Accountability Act was passed by both Houses of Congress after much debate. This legislation consolidated the government’s regulatory agencies, brought derivative trading onto public marketplaces, created a consumer protection agency, tightened regulations on credit rating agencies, and created processes for the Treasury to help wind-down bankrupt financial firms. This package was criticized from the left for failing to address the “too big to fail” banks which emerged during the 2000s, and from the right for creating a new layer of bureaucracy with the Consumer Protection Agency. Nonetheless, most Democrats supported the bill and it passed the Senate by a 60-40 vote and the House by an equally narrow margin. Finally, President Clinton signed the American Jobs Act in the fall of 2010. This legislation established a payroll tax holiday, extended unemployment benefits and rewarded employers for hiring the long-term out of work, authorized over $100 billion in funding for infrastructure and support for state governments, created a National Infrastructure Bank, and appropriated funding for greater WI-FI access. This plan passed the House by a wide margin and the Senate with 64 votes.
On foreign policy, the new Administration took a greater focus on international cooperation in the war on terror. The President worked hand-in-hand with European leaders to increase their contributions to the rebuilding efforts in Afghanistan, while announcing that all ground troops would be home by 2012. Clinton also devoted a great deal of time to working on the peace process in the Middle East. Working with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, Clinton was a part of several peace talks between Israel and Palestine, yet did not see any major breakthroughs. More importantly, the Arab Spring revolts in 2011 and 2012 saw an increased role for the United States in the troubled region. In Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen, national leaders were ousted in favor of democratic and coalition governments, while many other regimes were forced to enact political and economic reforms. In Libya, Syria, and Iraq, full-scale civil wars erupted against the dictatorial regimes. The United States provided financial and military support to the rebels in all-three nations, and took part in an international no-fly zone above Libya, helping oust Colonel Gaddafi. The fighting in Syria and Iraq remained particularly severe, and Clinton announced at the end of 2012 that the United States would provide greater support in the coming months.
The 2010 midterm elections saw increased Republican support in the wake of a growing budget deficit, a weak economy, and international turmoil. While President Clinton remained somewhat popular, her support had weakened considerably among large segments of the population. Most Americans had seen their economic wellbeing fall during 2009 and 2010, and unemployment was still above 8%. The Republican Party articulated a program of tax and spending cuts, along with cutting bureaucratic red-tape and slashing regulations. House Minority Leader Roy Blunt, in announcing the Republican “Pathway to Prosperity” platform, attacked President Clinton for “failing to learn the lessons of the 1990s, when Bill Clinton and Al Gore understood that balanced budgets, cutting spending, and easing the regulatory burden on innovators created jobs and prosperity.” Democrats countered by arguing that Republican policies would stifle the recovery and make matters worse. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, fighting a tough reelection bid of his own, argued that “If you vote for the Republicans, you’re voting for a return to 2008, when the housing market collapsed, the financial system went into a free-fall, and the entire economy went into recession. Republicans didn’t do anything to help the middle class then, and they won’t now either.” The hard-fought campaign ended with Republicans picking up the Senate, gaining seats in Alaska (Mike Chenault), Arkansas (John Boozman), Colorado (Jane Norton), Connecticut (Rob Simmons), Delaware (Mike Castle), Florida (Charlie Crist), Nevada (Sue Lowden), North Carolina (Sue Myrick), North Dakota (John Hoeven), and Pennsylvania (Tom Ridge). Democrats picked up the seat in Arizona, where former Governor Bruce Babbitt defeated Senator J.D. Hayworth by a narrow margin. Democrats narrowly maintained control of the House of Representatives.
The loss of the Senate forced President Clinton to work within a new reality. It was unlikely that health care reform or another round of economic stimulus would be possible. Now she would be forced to work with Mitch McConnell to pass any legislation. Taking a picture from her husband, Clinton decided to work with Republicans on select issues while attacking them on others. The principal point of agreement was on deficit reduction. Despite the relative fiscal prudence of the 2000s, the national debt was rising rapidly in the face of the weak economy and the war on terror. Republicans campaigned heavily on reigning in spending and promised to balance the budget. They were joined by a cadre of Democrats, primarily members of the Blue Dog Coalition. While balancing the budget required significant cuts to popular programs and was politically impossible, the President was willing to work with Republicans to pass a deficit reduction plan tied to raising the debt ceiling for two years. Talks between the President and Congress began in the spring of 2011, and featured a broad group of lawmakers. Representing Congressional Republicans were McConnell, Blunt, and Dave Camp. On the Democratic side were Max Baucus, Nancy Pelosi, and John Spratt. The President and Treasury Secretary Corzine represented the Administration. Clinton and the Democrats initially wanted a balanced plan which would balance spending cuts with tax increases. Republicans opposed tax cuts, instead supporting a plan that only cut spending. After several weeks of negotiations, a final compromise plan was announced. A 3:1 ratio of spending cuts to revenue increases was announced. The cuts came primarily in discretionary spending, while the revenue came through closing tax loopholes. This moderate plan drew the ire of those on the far ends of the political spectrum, but ultimately passed both Houses of Congress in the summer of 2011 by wide margins. The legislation came in three sections. The first was increasing the debt ceiling through 2013 and spending cuts. This was followed by tax reform legislation, which had a deadline of January 1, 2013, or else the McCain Tax Cuts would be repealed. This was considered a major victory for the White House, and the President personally lobbied many Democrats to support the deal.
The 2012 Presidential Election: With President Clinton’s approval ratings on the rise, Republicans were faced with challenging prospects for taking back the White House. Unlike in 2004, Clinton was not seen as ineffective or doing too little to win the war on terror. The economy remained the biggest issue on voters’ minds, and while they were divided over Clinton’s policies, generally believed she had taken positive steps in response to the collapse of the housing market. The passage of the stimulus, jobs act, Dodd-Frank, and a significant debt deal gave the President a great deal to run on. The Republican candidates were forced to focus more on their own accomplishments rather than on Clinton’s weaknesses. Nonetheless, the field was quite large and encompassed a fairly large swath of ideologies. The early frontrunners for the nomination were Senators George Allen and Charlie Crist, and Governors Rick Perry, Tim Pawlenty, and Mark Sanford. Second-tier candidates included Governors Steve Largent, Bob Riley, Mike Huckabee, and Jon Hunstman, along with perennial candidate, Congressman Ron Paul. However, the race took a series of turns early on that would shape the outcome. Senator Crist, who voiced support for the stimulus as Governor of Florida and supported Roe v. Wade when running for the Senate in 1998, was unable to gain traction among conservatives. He was also accused as being an “office-hopper” due to his candidacy for President just a year after arriving in the Senate. Governor Pery struggled in the debates, often failing to grasp the specifics of issues. But it was the Iowa Caucuses that offered the most surprises. Little-known Governor Mike Huckabee finished in first over a divided field, due in large part to social conservatives and evangelicals who rallied to his candidacy. But Huckabee lacked sufficient funds, and had little organization in New Hampshire. George Allen, the national front-runner, was victorious in that contest. South Carolina produced a third winner when Governor Sanford defeated Huckabee. The crucial primary was in Florida, where Allen had taken a lead over Crist and Sanford. His superior fundraising and ground-game gave him a surprisingly strong victory, followed by a strong performance on Super Tuesday. It was not long before Allen had secured the Republican nomination, choosing Largent as his running-mate.
The focus of the general election was on how to improve the economy. With unemployment still above 7.5%, voters wanted clear solutions. Clinton and Allen presented contrasting plans on how to improve the economy. Allen argued for tax cuts to stimulate growth, while cutting regulations on industry to allow them to hire. He strongly opposed Clinton’s approach to health-care reform, which he called “the biggest job-killer possible.” The President’s approach was quite different. She called for a continuation of past policies, arguing for an expansion of alternative energy and health care reform (to bring down costs in those areas). She also attacked Allen for proposing tax cuts that would “undo the bipartisan work to contain the deficit” enacted in 2011. Polls consistently showed Clinton with a four-to-five point lead heading into Election Day. The debates were fairly uneventful, as Clinton articulately defended her policies but scored few points on Allen, who was unable to land the necessary haymaker. Ultimately, voters put their faith in Clinton and the Democrats, who solidified their control over the House but actually lost two seats in the Senate (North Dakota, Wisconsin). Clinton’s victory was not a landslide, but granted her the opportunity to pursue consensus legislation in her second term.
Senator George Allen/Governor Steve Largent (R): 46% of the PV, 196 EVs
He beats Brad Henry ITTL. Considering his stardom on the gridiron, he's a logical pick for Allen