Greetings and salutations.
I seem to be in a bit of a creative slump, so it's going to be covers, alas, covers, for a little while. First, a cover of an old map by Sovereign12,
https://www.alternatehistory.com/di...1097692&highlight=bavaria+leopold#post1097692
In this world Duke Joseph Ferdinand Leopold of Bavaria survives his bout of small pox and becomes King of Spain, instead of dying at age six. He consolidates his power and empire, but in the process manages to piss off pretty much everyone, and in the end a general european-wide war leads to the destruction and breakup of the Spanish Empire. Leo's children flee to America, but efforts to create a unified American empire founder on family squabbles.
Butterflies flap. The Manchu conquest of China goes sour, and a Latter Ming under a general with a very dubious geneology pushes them north of the Yellow River: this has long-term consequences, in that it makes the Manchu far more eager to gain foreign technology and know-how to compensate for their inferior numbers. Lithuania breaks with Poland and ends up dynastically unified with Russia.
A Bourbon ends up on the throne of Castile, and later on a unified Franco-Castilian empire allied(temporarily) to Portugal and the Mexican empire manages to beat the British to a draw in North America, although losing their share of the Spanish Netherlands to the Dutch (which nearly choke on it). This does not prove to be a long term benefit, since later on a republican movement arises in the Americas, and although the monarchy manages to throttle its European offshoot in the cradle, French America revolts and becomes the first Big Deal republic in this world.
The Latter Ming breaks up in civil war between multiple Heirs Presumptive and assorted generals. The Manchu stir the pot but watch and wait. Egypt breaks away from the Ottoman empire but Serbia fails to do the same. The Habsburgs, in the Second War of the Bavarian Succession, lose Silesia, but hold onto Leopold's homeland. France backs the Marathas against the British, and while they fail to hold more than a sliver of India, at least get some good schadenfreude. With no Napoleon rampaging here and there, Germany remains _very_ politically divided, and cautious liberal reforms happen that were supressed for decades OTL.
By 1909, although technology hasn't advanced much ahead of OTL (military tech is roughly comparable to OTL WWI), political radicalism has spread further and faster than OTL: the corrupt and repressive Russian Empire crumbled in revolution in 1889, and a radical leftist regime established what this world calls a national 'syndicate' in the ruins of Empire. However, the Syndicate has had a harder time than OTLs USSR: the civil war was longer and messier and much national territory was lost, and attempts to regain some of it led several neighboring states to dogpile Russia.
As of the "mud season" of 1909, fighting has stopped and an armistice in place; the fighting has been fierce and the Ottomans, Swedes and their allies are reluctant to continue bleeding to help out the Manchus, which are not official allies and whose brutality and totalitarian tendencies are well known: a peace treaty is in the works, although disagreements about the borders may yet restart the fighting (The Ottomans are very insistent on keeping a land link between their territories and the Federation of Turkestan, for one thing).
The Manchus hope to secure their heartland by pushing the Russians out of the entire TransBaikal area, and make of the Nihonese, like the Koreans, a puppet. The leadership may have bitten off more than they can chew, though...
Bruce