Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72

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That's where things can get rather interesting, since ALL of the major airlines at the time save for United Airlines, were AGAINST deregulation and full on competition.

The reason Ted Kennedy championed this cause, is because several studies were made showing that fares were kept artificially high by Civil Aeronautics Bureau regulation. Back then airlines, had to get approval from the CAB in order to open new routes and fares and timetable were more or less decided by the CAB as well. This is why you had magnificient service then, because the airlines could only compete openly on service and not on price.

You could have Wallace in a real quandary here. Torn between the potential price benefits of deregulation for the travelling public, and between the fear that once the CAB is dissolved the airlines will simply abuse their newly fund powers and fleece costumers and communities with excessive fares.

I would be interested to know how the airline/aerospace industry is responding to the much higher fuel prices. Boeing will likely still go ahead with both the 757 and 767 as per OTL, since both designs had fuel efficiency in mind. Douglas and Lockheed might make different moves from OTL, the former will still go down the path of the super 80, but Lockheed might try and design an Airbus out of their Tristar in order to stay in the market. If fuel prices stay high well into the eighties (likely if Saudia goes Taliban), I would expect prop-fans engines to be tested on a much larger scale than OTL, possibly leading to prop fan airliners (a major change from OTL).

Is Europe still building the Airbus as per OTL? I would tend to say yes.



Since Carter never became president, I imagine that nuclear reprocessing is not illegal in the US unlike OTL. I can therefore easily see government money poured poured into fast breeder reactors and unconventional designs like molten salt reactors during the eighties, in order to better use the fissile ressource.

There is a good potential for technology to deviate a lot from OTL as the POD moves back behind us. I realise that this may not be you best area of expertise, but try and imagine what could be there too ;).

Interesting ideas -- and I would see the Dept. of Energy under Stephen McNichols looking at more innovation and less restriction - the ecology/environmental movement will not be as much in the forefront, given economic concerns (jobs/cheaper energy vs. ecology) more voters will (or will be perceived to, since it is perception that drives politics) come down on the side of the jobs/cheaper energy.

Airlines will be looking thrift economy. I imagine this as a world where maybe half the flights of OTL (domestic anyway) are taking place - and we could see major airline mergers as a result. Fewer people are flying than OTL because of cost and unemployment. Deregulation could be seen as a way to make flying more economic, although the airline customer base may be narrower than OTL (business travellers more than leisure for example).

Airbus, 757, perhaps even something completely new would be a go as airlines would demand fuel efficient and more versatile aircraft even more

Someone has suggested High speed trains, but this economy could well see a revival of train travel (harking back to the thirties and forties) as an alternative to airline travel - if the costs are right - leading airlines to compete directly with rail companies and not necessarily each other.
 
I meant stuff like fuel economy standards, earlier research into electronic cars, perhaps a few people who need to get from place to place might pressure for some HSR. Also there won't just be the environmental concerns to argue for this anymore.

There's a touch of the double-edged sword: people want more fuel efficient cars, but at the same time fewer people can afford to buy them when the come off the line. And since fewer are buying, there are fewer R&D dollars going around to fund research. It becomes a question of what you can make a priority at the top level of the government in each affected country and how they choose to invest national resources.

The oil and coal lobbies are very persistent creatures in U.S. politics, and I could see room for a revived rail lobby, which at one time was the dominant special interest in U.S. politics. I could see a coal interest pushing heavily for a pro-coal policy from a Labour government in the UK.

Commuter rail could definitely get a shot in the arm.

However, I see coal producing States acting as a lobby to ramp-up coal usage as a way to promote employment in their own States. Coal power might also benefit the troubled coal sector in the UK as well.
 
Another fine update..with the rise of the third parties in the US, how is the secession movements in Alaska, the South, "New Afrika", etc.
 
Great New update!

Also, I can't help but think that the USSR will actually come out of this better then OTL, as Susilovs campaign of terror is likely to curb enough of the institutional corruption to actually allow the reformers (when they seize power) to put the economy on the right track.

Of course, everyone competent could also be purged and everything else could fall apart even more violently then OTL.

The question is if a Soviet leader or group of leaders can make the Black Cat/White Cat realization (economically and politically) that Deng Xiaoping made in China, and yet retain a Party discipline that will keep the CPSU in power. Arguably, OTL Gorbachev and his supporters got the economic point, but failed to grasp that a command structure could not survive a liberal political wave (coupled with resurgent nationalism in the USSR's non-Russian parts). In some regards, it was the last of the European colonial empires to fall - it was just that its imperialism had another ideology.

Or does a brutal crackdown become increasing unpopular that you get to a OTL Iranian type situation where, instead of a (relatively) peaceful transition, you get another violent revolution because an intransigent leadership will not let go and only a radical revolutionary group can force them out?

What if instead of a Gorbachev and a Yeltsin at the critical moment you had a Lebed (an admirer of Pinochet) or a Zhirinovsky (a crackpot) or even Lukashenko (political strong man) ready to lead the popular discontent into office atop the tank?
 

Spengler

Banned
Also Drew I know I asked this before but I was wondering if the Forever war got published in this timeline?

Also I noticed that there are several republicans (like Rumsfeld) who seem to be pursuing measures against outsourcing. Makes me wonder how conservatism will develop on the long run if such an attitude becomes mainstream.
 
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While working on a kibbutz in the Negev desert as a student volunteer, twenty-year old Simon Le Bon is drafted for service in the Israel Defence Forces.

That seems kind of out of the blue.

Still, I suppose it means all of the Duran Duran lyrics will become some kind of new standard for war poetry or something.
 


That seems kind of out of the blue.

Still, I suppose it means all of the Duran Duran lyrics will become some kind of new standard for war poetry or something.

...can they do that? Looking at his Wiki Le Bon doesn't appear to be an Israeli citizen -- surely even Israel can't just up and draft foreign nationals? (Of course, I know nothing about the man, so I could be wrong.)
 
Interesting ideas -- and I would see the Dept. of Energy under Stephen McNichols looking at more innovation and less restriction - the ecology/environmental movement will not be as much in the forefront, given economic concerns (jobs/cheaper energy vs. ecology) more voters will (or will be perceived to, since it is perception that drives politics) come down on the side of the jobs/cheaper energy.

The environmental movement will be a lot more innovation and "saving energy is good for reducing costs" based that's for sure. Down the line this might prove to be a very good thing, as it would avoid the current nonsense like building up massive wind power capacity at taxpayers expense.

I imagine that utilities wil remain regulated and nationalised for a long time. But again it could be a good thing if they run themselves efficiently and focus on innovation and lowering costs for everyone.

Airlines will be looking thrift economy. I imagine this as a world where maybe half the flights of OTL (domestic anyway) are taking place - and we could see major airline mergers as a result. Fewer people are flying than OTL because of cost and unemployment. Deregulation could be seen as a way to make flying more economic, although the airline customer base may be narrower than OTL (business travellers more than leisure for example).

The airline industry was suprinsingly resilient during the OTL seventies despite the poor economy. Nevertheless if the passengers growth rates are lower than OTL some major airlines, chiefly Eastern, Pan American and TWA will face severe cash flow issues. Purchasing huge numbers of Boeing 747s which ended up half empty, was a very costly investment OTL, but TTL it will be even costlier. At the same time however, the high oil prices will mean that flying old designs like 707s and DC8s will be unsustainable. So the general trend in the industry will be to go for high efficiency planes and to try and reduce fuel consumption by any means necessary.

The costumer base for the industry will be smaller, especially as far as leisure travellers will be concerned, but don't forget that once deregulation kicks in, fares can be massively lowered and this will tap into previously non flying costumers. In the context you describe, already existing low-cost airlines restricted to their home states (intrastate flying was not as regulated), will expand a lot faster than OTL. Southwest Airlines will get into new markets years before OTL, Pacific Southwest will do the same out of California and might even become a major nationwide major if it play its cards correctly.

Competition will be a lot tougher than OTL as a result of the higher fuel prices and it is inevitable that some legacy carriers will die as a result of it. Braniff under its incompetent management will likely repeat the mistakes of OTL and die. United will thrive as the company was run rather conservatively and waited for the others to kill themselves before moving into new markets, they should do fine as a result. Continental history can become very different from OTL one, since the variables are so numerous, I could see them merging with Western as soon as deregulation kicks in to strengthen their position in Denver and Los Angeles, Thereby keeping Frank Lorenzo out, he would likely try and purchase National Airlines instead. American and Delta will do fine as their bases in respectively Dallas and Atlanta, will be right the middle of the sun-belt, which I imagine is thriving as per OTL with lower labour costs and such such.

Both TWA and Pan Am despite their globe spanning networks were giants with feets of clay. If they build up good hubs and good domestric feeder networks, they can survive unlike OTL. I could easily see Eastern Airlines and Pan-Am possibly merging somehow.

Airbus, 757, perhaps even something completely new would be a go as airlines would demand fuel efficient and more versatile aircraft even more

The Boeing 757 and 767 were designed together as part of one family of airliners, so as per OTL they will be built together and likely sell as well if not slightly better (need for fuel efficiency).
Designing a completely new airplane is an expensive and risky venture, but Douglas will likely still design the MD80 to replace the previous generation DC9s.

Airbuses might sell better in the United States since their high performance fuel efficiency wise became obvious by the late seventies.

Someone has suggested High speed trains, but this economy could well see a revival of train travel (harking back to the thirties and forties) as an alternative to airline travel - if the costs are right - leading airlines to compete directly with rail companies and not necessarily each other.

Amtrak might indeed become profitable TTL.

Something else to consider as well, the electrification of freight networks. The Milwaukee Road was close from electrifying a good portion of their network OTL, but chose not do so. Reverse that decision and I can easily see other networks going for electrification.
Said electrification would be expensive, but that's where the government might kicks in and say "alright we will give out loans and grants in order to reduce fuel imports". Scrap the regulation of freight rates and you can end up with an ultra efficient diesel free railway network effectively competing with the truck companies.
 
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...can they do that? Looking at his Wiki Le Bon doesn't appear to be an Israeli citizen -- surely even Israel can't just up and draft foreign nationals? (Of course, I know nothing about the man, so I could be wrong.)

I'll second that, with a caveat. Friends of mine have visited Israel for a semester or more without (to my knowledge) being eligible to be drafted. Some Jewish Americans have returned to Israel to serve in that country's military (the columnist Caroline Glick comes to mind), but I believe it is strictly on a voluntary basis, unless they are planning to settle there, or become citizens.

Perhaps ITTL the Israeli state is operating under such a siege mentality that even visiting Jews are eligible for the draft. However, since Le Bon was not Jewish, I think it would be unlikely that he would be drafted.

Alternatively, he could be mistakenly taken in for the draft, but decide to serve his term with his fellow Kibutz laborers; I believe the Israelis don't separate draftees, and allow them to serve together during their term of service.

By the way, fantastic last update. The "Kremlin" source is unintentionally hilarious for me, reads like a 70's update of "The Court of the Red Tsar." All you need is another strongman to fill the role of Stalin, not some wannabe or intellectual admirer like Suslov.
 
Also Drew I know I asked this before but I was wondering if the Forever war got published in this timeline?

No reason why it wouldn't, since the author's Vietnam experiences are from before the POD. I would say that it resonates even more in this TL with a re-commitment of forces to Vietnam and the U.S. involvement in Syria.
 
Perhaps ITTL the Israeli state is operating under such a siege mentality

Not really - at least not yet, but it is pressing for a permanent end to the Syrian state and is very suspicious of what the U.S. is doing there, especially by allowing Egyptian personnel to operate as advisers in the country. It is also concerned about PJO militancy and the fact that the PLO is becoming more "acceptable" as a result of its struggles with the PJO.


Alternatively, he could be mistakenly taken in for the draft, but decide to serve his term with his fellow Kibutz laborers; I believe the Israelis don't separate draftees, and allow them to serve together during their term of service.

Corrected for official mistakes and group solidarity.

By the way, fantastic last update. The "Kremlin" source is unintentionally hilarious for me, reads like a 70's update of "The Court of the Red Tsar." All you need is another strongman to fill the role of Stalin, not some wannabe or intellectual admirer like Suslov.

Beware the wannabe imitator - that's where the real trouble begins.
 
No Osama is good for the world.

Don't bet the farm on that.

China looks more and more like it risks causing a major conflict.

Safer to bet on that.

Regarding the Portuguese naming system, I cannot avoid sharing an interesting essay in Portuguese about naming customs in the XIX and early XX century,
as well as the list of all versions of the Civil Code (in Portuguese), in case anyone finds it interesting or useful as research material for any TL.:)


Thanks for the resource
 
...can they do that? Looking at his Wiki Le Bon doesn't appear to be an Israeli citizen -- surely even Israel can't just up and draft foreign nationals? (Of course, I know nothing about the man, so I could be wrong.)

He's not (an Israeli citizen or Jewish) but he's about to have a life altering experience - as a consequence of a mistake and a little peer pressure - thanks to the suggestion from Antipater.
 
ABC News Close-up: America: A Nation on the Rails Once More (1978)

Narrator (Al Gore-ABC News): In 1976 the ICC, spurred by Secretary of Transportation William Coleman and the Senator Kennedy, enacted railroad price deregulation for common freight and agricultural freight mandated by the Rail De-regulation Act of 1976, also known as the Kennedy-Long Act. Senator Russell Long had crafted a series of further incentives into the Act for the railroads and their unions for meeting on-time delivery schedules.

Robert Sobel (Author – The Revival of Railroads During the Depression of the Seventies): What you had was a conflux of events; Ted Kennedy and Russell Long pushed for price deregulation on the railroads, bringing both freight and passenger rates down, right at the same time as oil prices were shooting through the roof. Suddenly rail transportation became affordable, in fact compared to what truckers had to charge it became downright cheap. By 1978 rail companies like Union Pacific and Penn Central, which only a few years before had looked like sure bets to collapse in bankruptcy, were viable concerns again, while it was the trucking sector that was facing large scale bankruptcies.

That was important, because it attracted to these resurgent rail companies a whole new group of managers who set about shaking out the bad management practices which had hindered their success and make them into efficient business concerns.

Commercial shippers began to see rail as a more reliable, as well as cost effective, given the turmoil in the trucking sector and that, along with increased passenger service, breathed new life into the aging railway networks.

N: Along with freight, the rail companies found a new competitive edge in the passenger market as rising fuel prices, and the resulting sharp reduction in flights and airlines, placed airline travel increasingly out of reach for the ordinary traveler.

As the 1970’s progressed, passenger rail services which had long gone dormant came back to life, feeding a market for people who still needed to travel large distances, but could not afford the cost of an airline ticket. With passenger rates sharply deregulated by the Kennedy-Long Act, railroads were free to compete on price and service lines with the airlines, and they offered a more economic product.

This benefited the North-eastern corridor in particular, which saw a blossoming of commuter rail lines which were often subsidiaries of the main passenger lines. It was far more economical to commute to work in the big cities by rail, than to burn gas doing so. The idea soon took hold in communities across the country.
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John Farson

Banned
Sorry, I don't get the reference.

See Hurricane Katrina, though I seriously doubt that weather patterns would be tremendously affected by the POD.

It was inevitable that the KKK and other white supremacists would see Wallace as a betrayer. This was already reflected a bit by Mississippi being the only Southern state to go for Reagan. But the kind of rhetoric that we're seeing here... It might not lead to anything, but then again...

Wallace's attempted shakedown of the oil industry was quite riveting reading. When a guy like Paul Volcker disagrees with that, you know it's very, very risky. Wallace looks like he's spoiling for a fight, though. Even possible impeachment doesn't seem to faze him. Though surely a conviction would be impossible with the Dems holding the Senate, and it could be argued that Wallace's actions, while controversial, do not meet the criteria for high crimes and misdemeanours.

China is acting scary as usual, and it's quite the contrast with Deng's OTL economic reforms. When even the Soviets are scared shitless about Mao the Lesser's intentions, you know things are bad!

The bit about Taiwan, S. Korea and especially Japan seeking the Bomb was a worrying development. No wonder the Japanese government is trying to keep it a secret. Should it ever be leaked, the domestic response alone would be bad enough.

While it looks like Iran might, just might, end up better than OTL, Saudi Arabia looks to be heading to hell in a handbasket. And with the fanatics calling oil "Satan's alcohol" and openly expressing their desire to destroy the nation's oil industry... well, the price of oil would certainly go up a bit.

I presume the US and other western powers have contingency plans about a military intervention should things get out of hand in Saudi. The oil fields are too important for the global economy to just be left in the hands of the islamists (especially if they want to blow them up!).
 
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