01/09/39: Japan declares war on Germany

[Landshark]

In the thread about how Japan could win in World War 2 someone said the Japanese would have to declare war on Germany in 1939, so what if they did just that?

What sort of world, and more specifically what sort of Japan would be needed for the Japanese Empire to declare war on Nazi Germany in September 1939?

Would a functioning Japanese democracy need to be in place before the end of the 1930's for Japan to be an acceptable ally for Britain and France or would they be happy to co-operate with the nation that perpertrated the Rape of Nanking?

How would the war progress with Japanese forces fighting in Europe?

Would a Japanese Expeditionary Force arrive in France in 1940?

Would France fall as it did in OTL and would IJN ships take part in Operation Dynamo?

Would the IJAAF take part in the Battle of Britain?

Would the IJN operate in the Atlantic?

Would Japanese Army units operate in North Africa equipped with British tanks?

Would the forces that invaded Europe on D-Day be composed of British, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and Japanese troops?

 

[xelas2547]

With PoD around mid 1930s this may work

 

[Landshark]

With PoD around mid 1930s this may work

I'm thinking you'd need a POD before the First World War. By the 1930's Japan is a pretty nasty place, particularly if you're Chinese, and it's well into it's expansionist phase. I'm not sure if Japan had the chance to become a civilian democracy before 1945 but I think it'd be need before this could occur.

 

[Kriegdämmerung]

I'm not sure if Japan had the chance to become a civilian democracy before 1945 but I think it'd be need before this could occur.

Why would Japan have to become a civilian democracy?

What if you use an idiotic excuse for a DoW? The Germans funded the KMT, IIRC. Just have the Japanese play it so that the Chinese are played as being subject to orders from Berlin and going in to "protect the freedom of the Asian peoples".

As a result, the Japanese are given oil and supplies in their "noble task" by the British and the Dutch. The Japanese liberate Indochina from the Vichy French (supposing France falls), send troops into Siam to secure its entry into the Allies, and perhaps the Japanese send troops to aid the Soviets (should a Barbarossa-like attack commence).

Kinda ASB, but this TL might see Japan having a legitamately recognized empire in Eastern Asia, one nearly as, if not more, brutal and repressive as the Soviet one that was just as supported by the Allies...

 

[Caspian]

What if you use an idiotic excuse for a DoW? The Germans funded the KMT, IIRC. Just have the Japanese play it so that the Chinese are played as being subject to orders from Berlin and going in to "protect the freedom of the Asian peoples".

I was thinking something similar - Japan declares war on Germany over their support of the Chinese (probably highly unlikely, but I'm sure stranger things have happened).

Assuming this happened, my immediate impression is that the war does not progress too differently until 1942.

Would the United States still be drawn into the war? I think so - I think by mid-1941, war between the US and Germany was pretty much inevitable, though maybe not until mid-1942 or even a little later.

 

[jmberry]

Sounds pretty ASB to me. Japan had nothing to gain by declaring war on Germany - they had already gained everything they could in the last war. Besides, Germany and Japan had spent the past decade forming a ring around their mutual rival, the Soviet Union. The only way I could see Japan declaring war on the Germans is if Germany won WWI (and thus kept their Pacific territories).

 

[strangeland]

This likely means the War is going to be U.S.-UK-Japan vs Nazi Germany-USSR-China. Japan can get many of the resources it needs by striking north into the Soviet Union. Now, if their performance against the Soviets in Nohmanhon and August Storm is any indication, they won't do very well. But having the American industrial machine at their backs will do much to even the odds.

Now, since Germany and the USSR together are unlikely to totally defeated (we all know what happens when somebody tries to march to Moscow ), we could see World Wars III and IV with different coalitions.

 

[Jukra]

Kinda ASB, but this TL might see Japan having a legitamately recognized empire in Eastern Asia, one nearly as, if not more, brutal and repressive as the Soviet one that was just as supported by the Allies...

Yes, definitely. It's also somewhat indicative of utterly stupid militarism that Japanese leadership did not see this possibility. After all, Japanese involvement in First World War was a total success.

A Japanese involvement in Second World War might also mean that Japan could conduct Destroyers for bases deal with UK in 1940, further expanding Japanese influence.

As for immediate military consequences, German Navy, yes, U-boats too, will be defeated much more quicker. IJN historic performance in Mediterranean during First World War indicated that if truly tasked with ASW, equipped with latest British sonar, they would perform excellently. Additionally IJN was a night-focused force, so they won't have to wait radars before finding ways to kill U-boats at night.

Italy loses fairly quickly too.

 

[Blue Max]

Not hard at all.

OTL: Germany tried to support China but pulled out after Japan demanded they do so in exchange for supporting China.

The problem I have with the date is that the UK DoWed Germany on Sept 4th, 1939, so getting Japan to DoW antedating a Polish "Incident" is going to awkward. Still if we consider German support to China to be ongoing, something like:

Alexander Von Falkenhausen is captured by Japanese Forces outside Guangzhou, along with a large number of German "Volunteers" hoping to use the China Incident as a means to experiment with military tactics, on August 21st, 1939.

Japan and Germany have several spats, finally, on midnight of Sept 1st (and before the German attack), Japan DoWs Germany. It is too late to call off Fall Weiss, and the UK and French response to Japan's DoW against Germany begins with reluctant co-operation and a UK-French overture to Japan to negotiate a peace deal with China; such overtures may fail, but the UK and France have to reluctantly support Japan against China in spite of its bad behavior, since Germany is supporting China.

This is one scenario that may lead to a VERY SCREWED post-war China. The Allies signing off on Japanese aggression against China, agreeing that it belongs to their sphere of influence minus things like Hong Kong and Macau--is everything Japan could possibly want from the Allies and it will mean the end of Chiang and probably Japanese Puppet Regimes in the 1940s.

This whole situation is going to explode in the Cold War. But for WW2, this means that Japan takes on only China and is allowed to buy whatever it wants, and the full force of the Allies is otherwise directed at Germany, which doesn't do as well as OTL. When the Soviets decide to screw with China against Japan in the cold war and Japan tries to pull a Franco to get US support...This is getting nasty...

 

[tormsen]

I wonder how that scenario would effect the nuclear arms race, as it may end up that the US can stay comfortably out of the war while supplying France, England and Japan with Lend-Lease and the initial impetus to develop a nuclear bomb is reduced. Assuming Germany is defeated, the Soviets would be weakened compared to OTL but feeling quite vengeful. They could take a very anti-imperialistic tac, decrying the corruption and exploitation of the British, French and Japanese empires. That could in turn cause more sympathy for the Soviet Union in the United States, particularly as the US feels threatened by Japanese power in Asia.

A late 40's early 50's bomb, probably built by the United States but conceivably by Britain, France, Japan or the USSR, would change the game. A multi polar Cold War would probably be really bad.

 

[Alexius]

If we have Western Allies-plus-Japan against Unholy-Alliance-plus-China, things are going to get interesting- especially considering the question of where the Soviets will be fighting. China will obviously be the main battleground, but East Asia is probably turned into something like Europe IOTL- The Soviets are superior on land, but they have effectively a coastal Navy compared to the might of the IJN, so the Home Islands are safe from invasion (but not aerial bombardment). Japan may not be entirely driven off the mainland, but they will need a lot of help to win there, if they do so at all.
An alt-Winter War will go the other way for the Soviets- British and French assistance results in a conclusive Finnish victory, and possibly even a Finnish (more likely demilitarised) Leningrad (Pietari?).
The post-war map will be very interesting- something has to be done with Eastern Europe instead of its becoming Soviet satellites. We'd get a big Poland, independent Baltics (perhaps Polish/Finnish satellites), and independent Ukraine and Belarus. Soviets lose that, plus a big chunk of Karelia to Finland and possibly some of their Black Sea coast. Not sure what happens to Bulgaria/Romania/Hungary- do they lose territory to Yugoslavia? Greece? Czechoslovakia? Germany will obviously shrink, giving territory to Poland and possibly Czechoslovakia, and also perhaps to France. Belgium and the Netherlands.
Central Asia I have absolutely no idea what will happen to.
In South/Southeast Asia, independence movements are forestalled a bit by the lack of a Japanese invasion.

I'll go into more detail on Asia in a later post. It would be interesting to have a China divided between a Soviet-backed PRC and a Japanese-backed "Empire" (uber-Manchukuo), but I'm not sure how that would work borders-wise, or how you could end the war so that happens.

 

[antisocrates]

It doesn't take more than a few PODs to have Japan declare war on Germany. Nazis, until pretty late in the game, were playing a double game in China. While they were allied with Japan, they still supported the Nationalists with arms and advisors, in fact, Germany was probably Chiang's most reliable military aid of support for a very long time. While there was a faction in Germany that was pro-Japan, there were others who were pro-China anti-Japan. If Japan and the US were more reasonable, an uneasy modus vivendi could have been established between the two, based on Japan's withdrawal from China and de facto US recognition of Manchuko. This requires less Japanophobic US leaders and Tokyo's control of the army in China, which was always on shakey ground, but I would it was a possibility. Then when the war breaks out in Europe, Japan could see an advantage in allying with the Allies, for no one knew at the time how easy France would fall. Most people expected a repeat of WWI. By allying with the Allies, Japan might be able to bargain for de jure recognition of Manchuko by the Allies, a worthy prize if possible.

 

[lothaw]

Yeah, you'd have to have German intervention in China. HEAVY intervention.

Germany refusing to recognize Manchukuo, Faukenhausen's mission being a complete success, and Chiang align's with Germany. Basiclly you'd have to have China in the Axis by 1937. Japan, with their typical mindset, hits China as soon as Germany is busy elsewhere.

And America wouldn't cut off the oil...

 

[Paladin]

One possibility, reaching farther back, would be to extend the Taisho democracy. To be honest, I'm not sure how-that era is not my strong point. Still, it has a lot of potential.

 

[admkenshin]

One possibility, reaching farther back, would be to extend the Taisho democracy. To be honest, I'm not sure how-that era is not my strong point. Still, it has a lot of potential.

You'd most likely have to remove the great depression, and that in itself requires either an earlier war or slower technological development, neither of which is likely. The great depression crashed Japan's export economy and made for an easy take-over by nationalist factions, similar to Germany, although in Japan there was no single dictator of course.

A third way is to instate a Technate (as was being discussed in North America) and completely abandon the price system, but the question is wether Japan could pull this off without Manchurian resources. Even if it was physically possible, there would be much opposition from the establishment so the Emperor himself would have to promote it.

Without a smooth economy, it is difficult for any nation to remain democratic, especially in this time-frame.

 

[The Red]

I would agree that the only way Japan could join the allies would be if Germany kept helping China.

The war against China will keep going on possibly with China getting a lot of German aid (Chinese Panzers?).Japan is going to seem to be more trouble than is worth to alllies but with earlier success in the Battle of the Atlantic as well as the Soviets receiving proper air support from the IJA,of course the Japanese are screwed if the Japanese army ever meets the German army but as long as it stays Ariel and Naval they will be effective allies.

Japan cannot win the war in China and this will eventually dawn on them which will probably lead to a peace treaty against an exhausted China leaving China a rump state.Germany will probably get beaten slightly earlier,provided that America comes in first half of 1942,with the Soviets probably ending up at the Rhine due to a less worse Barbarossa and a later American intervention.

Post war I could see Chiang winning any civil war as Manchuria will be Japanese occupied,but im guessig hell come under the Soviets wing leading to a Soviet supplied China curbstomping the backward Japanese army,retaking the mainland and occupying Korea,unless it goes nuclear which it might considering how advanced the Japanese nuclear program was.