Seven Days to the River Rhine: the Third World War - a TL

I think Australia and New Zealand will likely go for something like COVID restrictions but in steroids. Very heavy rationing, very heavy government oversight, and some hardcore import substitution. I do agree that they could pull it off. They won't be some economic superpower but they will likely be the most functional nations in the world.

However, a country like Argentina is going to go through some hard times. At the time, the economy was in a very fragile state and it was very dependent on US investments. It's uncertain if they can come on top of this event.
My bet would be on Australia and New Zealand surviving but being under martial law for at least the remainder of the 80s. Argentina and Brazil are more difficult to predict, though. Civil war in those two countries (and the rest of Latin America, for that matter) is quite plausible, and even complete state collapse isn't out of the realm of possibility IMO. If they do survive, it'll be under military regimes like in the aforementioned AUS and NZ.
 
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How fitting is that I have The Shape of Things to Come the film in mind since it involved much of the world going post-apocalyptic after what it would be called WWII but not as we know it and had chaos and warlords and whatnot wrecking havoc; there wouldn't be any shortage of some guys larping as "The Boss" in some corner of whatever NATO country that got nuked, and perhaps the surviving air forces of NATO forming a regime of sorts to bring order to the post-apocalyptic environment.

Cartoonishly optimistic sure, some or even most may argue, but I can't help but comment on how...interesting said film brought to the table.
 
Soviet leadership congratulating themselves on saving Socialism from capitalist imperialism. 1983, colorized:

"We did it comrades! We saved the CCCP!"
 
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In the Philippines, the capital of Manila, Cebu and US Naval Base Subic Bay were taken out along with several others.
I won't be born in this TL then. My parents died in the strike in Cebu. They were still 23.

The strike in Cebu would also affect northern Bohol.

Sample below using a Chinese DF-4 for reference:
screen-shot-2021-12-03-at-12-52-50-am-png.699901

Both Australia and New Zealand have very strong democratic traditions, I doubt either would slip into anarchy - no matter how bad the economic cataclysm is. The others though? can't say. We can also feed ourselves, so that isn't an issue. One major issue is medical supplies for preventable disease.
Australia was targeted in 1983: Doomsday (https://althistory.fandom.com/wiki/Doomsday_(1983:_Doomsday)?so=search#Australia) and Protect & Survive (https://www.alternatehistory.com/wi...e_universe_list_of_targeted_locations#oceania).

The Australia P&S Spin-off:

New Zealand on the other hand was spared in 1983: Doomsday but was equally targeted in P&S (https://www.alternatehistory.com/wi...e_universe_list_of_targeted_locations#oceania).
NZ P&S spin-off:
would the Israeli's not invoke the "Samson Option" if they knew they were targeted and attack place in the Middle East and Russia?
Definitely, they will. Volgograd is within striking distance of Israeli Jericho missiles. I'd expect Israel to also start nuking hostile Arab capitals such as Damascus and Baghdad and even it's Shia enemy, Tehran.
I think Australia and New Zealand will likely go for something like COVID restrictions but in steroids. Very heavy rationing, very heavy government oversight, and some hardcore import substitution. I do agree that they could pull it off. They won't be some economic superpower but they will likely be the most functional nations in the world.

However, a country like Argentina is going to go through some hard times. At the time, the economy was in a very fragile state and it was very dependent on US investments. It's uncertain if they can come on top of this event.
My bet would be on Australia and New Zealand surviving but being under martial law for at least the remainder of the 80s. Argentina and Brazil are more difficult to predict, though. Civil war in those two countries (and the rest of Latin America, for that matter) is quite plausible, and even complete state collapse isn't out of the realm of possibility IMO. If they do survive, it'll be under military regimes like in the aforementioned AUS and NZ.
I agree. On top of Australia getting a few strikes from Soviet SSBNs in the South Pacific while New Zealand would be 50/50 if it would be hit.

The scenario in 1983: Doomsday wherein Australia and New Zealand unite to form a commonwealth is too optimistic.
 
Just wondering how Nordic European nations fared. At best very hard times surely. Denmark, Norway and Iceland probably took some direct hits. Sweden and Finland might had avoided direct exchange but taking how insane Soviets were it is not certain. But for the nation have still really hard times due radiation, nuclear winter and massive refugee waves speciality on Finnish eastern borders and Northern Schleswig in Denmark. Probably them have enact martial act and put lot of rationing speciality for fuels, food and medicines. And this is going continue end of 1980's at best.

For Latin America I would suppose that Cuba was destroyed too. Pinochet probably manage to stay longer in power in Chile. There is going to be hard times in Latin America.

Just wondering what will happen to South Africa.
 
My bet would be on Australia and New Zealand surviving but being under martial law for at least the remainder of the 80s. Argentina and Brazil are more difficult to predict, though. Civil war in those two countries (and the rest of Latin America, for that matter) is quite plausible, and even complete state collapse isn't out of the realm of possibility IMO. If they do survive, it'll be under military regimes like in the aforementioned AUS and NZ.
I think Brazil would have survive because it was already a military dictatorship(cant believe Im saying that but oh well) and more importantly the right wing junta would feel validated in the eyes of the people when the clear "red aggressor" unilaterally attacked the West and brought the nuclear apocalypse

Unlike the 86-90s hyperinflation none of that could be blamed on the dictatorship itself who can claim they warned us precisely against that and WWIII here precedes said hyperinflation by three years, meaning at that point Brazil was still riding it's "economic miracle" brought by the junta's bubble and so the regime was still popular, with WWIII likely wiping out all debts the country contracted(so no one would know how rough things would've get for Brazil without the war) and the Great Depression-tier crisis following that would - again - not be the military's fault but "those darn commies who ruined everything"

So I expect Brazil surviving as a united nation with it's authoritarian government, however it's likely these events not only would have legitimised the regime but pushed the country further into Far-Right territory and at least for a decade or two not be something pleasant place to live in with a horrifying blend of theocracy and positivist totalitarism

Good luck new world that's your superpower now!
 
I was 2 in 83, living in piedmont area of NC at the time so probably no direct hit but have to wonder if I would have survived the fallout. Still had many extended Family that were farming at that point so if we survive the fallout we would have ability to farm atleast.
 
The funny thing is, New Zealand was already faring under a wage and price freeze imposed by our Prime Minister here in 1982 - which remained in effect until 1985. We were already operating under a siege economy, and I imagine these regulations would be expanded as war broke out in Europe. With that said, I imagine chronic shortages, the collapse of international trade, and other associated shocks would devastate the economy.

In regards to whether Australia is targeted, from what I recall it directly contradicts leaked Soviet documents (can't find the old relevant article) which suggested they had little to no interest nuking either Oceanic countries. Both Australia and New Zealand were always going to play a subordinate role in any conflict, which I imagine informed their planning. Any Soviet submarine that sails into range would have to run through a gauntlet of Allied ASW forces. My guess? Pine Gap cops it and another countervalue target like Perth if they're really unlucky.

The fact is, there are far more varied and valuable targets in Europe, North America and Asia.

Another major concern is refugees, Bob Hawke had previously opposed admission of the Boat People as a union leader in the 1970's and Muldoon presided over a viciously xenophobic campaign in 1975 opposed to Polynesian immigration. I can't see either country being humanitarian.
 
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Pangur

Donor
I think Australia and New Zealand will likely go for something like COVID restrictions but in steroids. Very heavy rationing, very heavy government oversight, and some hardcore import substitution. I do agree that they could pull it off. They won't be some economic superpower but they will likely be the most functional nations in the world.

However, a country like Argentina is going to go through some hard times. At the time, the economy was in a very fragile state and it was very dependent on US investments. It's uncertain if they can come on top of this event.
COVID is most likely a good example however it would also be really different in as far as no closures of bars and the like. Curfews, maybe Heavy rationing of fuel would in any by itself impose a lot of restrictions
 
I'd like to see how a ceasefire can be achieved - most communications, including cables, will be destroyed, and any surviving second-strike forces are probably under orders not to accept attempts to stop them without authority from people who are probably now dead or unreachable. Most of those hundreds of millions of survivors will starve within a few months anyway, as the re-start of a society relies on resources that are all tapped now.
 
I'd like to see how a ceasefire can be achieved - most communications, including cables, will be destroyed, and any surviving second-strike forces are probably under orders not to accept attempts to stop them without authority from people who are probably now dead or unreachable. Most of those hundreds of millions of survivors will starve within a few months anyway, as the re-start of a society relies on resources that are all tapped now.
Geostationary communication satellites should still be there. No side had anytime that can reach that orbit at the time. And we didn't hear about any ASAT usage in LEO and MEO before the world ended.

Only trick is finding a ground station that isn't nuked and still has power.
 
I'd like to see how a ceasefire can be achieved - most communications, including cables, will be destroyed, and any surviving second-strike forces are probably under orders not to accept attempts to stop them without authority from people who are probably now dead or unreachable. Most of those hundreds of millions of survivors will starve within a few months anyway, as the re-start of a society relies on resources that are all tapped now.
Geostationary communication satellites should still be there. No side had anytime that can reach that orbit at the time. And we didn't hear about any ASAT usage in LEO and MEO before the world ended.

Only trick is finding a ground station that isn't nuked and still has power.
And on that note, diplomats in neutral countries which avoided nuclear attacks probably were another conduit through which negotiations probably occurred.
 
I live in central NJ, in the NYC to Philly ”corridor“. Just off the top of my head, here are some of the potential targets in that area back in 83:

- NYC (of course)
- Grumman plant on Long Island
- JFK airport
- LaGuardia airport
- Newark airport
- Secaucus container/cargo port
- Picatinny Arsenal (slightly north but close enough)
- Naval Weapons Station Earle (actually two locations. One on the shore for ship loading/unloading and another further inland for storing weapons, (which allegedly included nuclear warheads)
- Fort Monmouth
- Lakehurst Naval Air Station
- McGuire AFB
- Fort Dix
- Philadelphia ship yards
- Philadelphia airport
- Philadelphia

So as you can see I would have been deader than dead! Not to mention that this area will looking like the surface of the moon for quite some time.

ric350
 
I think Brazil would have survive because it was already a military dictatorship(cant believe Im saying that but oh well) and more importantly the right wing junta would feel validated in the eyes of the people when the clear "red aggressor" unilaterally attacked the West and brought the nuclear apocalypse

Unlike the 86-90s hyperinflation none of that could be blamed on the dictatorship itself who can claim they warned us precisely against that and WWIII here precedes said hyperinflation by three years, meaning at that point Brazil was still riding it's "economic miracle" brought by the junta's bubble and so the regime was still popular, with WWIII likely wiping out all debts the country contracted(so no one would know how rough things would've get for Brazil without the war) and the Great Depression-tier crisis following that would - again - not be the military's fault but "those darn commies who ruined everything"

So I expect Brazil surviving as a united nation with it's authoritarian government, however it's likely these events not only would have legitimised the regime but pushed the country further into Far-Right territory and at least for a decade or two not be something pleasant place to live in with a horrifying blend of theocracy and positivist totalitarism

Good luck new world that's your superpower now!
well, happy Brazil makes it united, not rlly happy about the junta though :/
 

Nick P

Donor
So what happens to all the ground forces in Europe now? The navies will sail back to a safe port and the air forces will find somewhere to land or bail out to.

But the various armies will be operating out in the open with only tents, barns or their vehicles to shelter in. Those that haven't been shot, bombed or nuked will suffer badly from radiation laden winds once their individual NBC gear starts to wear out.
Would they hold the ceasefire line (assuming both sides got the message) or would they retreat to a safer location like a nearby town?
 
would the Israeli's not invoke the "Samson Option" if they knew they were targeted and attack place in the Middle East and Russia?
Why would they? Israel has probably called the reserve personal and at least tried to dispress the population, so it should be OK more or less. With the distruction of most of the world's atomic powers, Israel now has one of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world.
 
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