A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
- Thread starter pdf27
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Well, I sat down and did some math on this... the Soviets sold the Germans a hundred thousand trucks. The Red Army's OTL motor pool on June 22nd 1941 constituted 272,605 vehicles. During the same year, the Soviets manufactured 124,200 vehicles, down from 145,400 in 1940. However, this downturn obviously has a lot to do with the disruption imposed on the Soviets industry by Barbarossa: the number of cars manufactured in the first half of the year was 78,100 as opposed to the 46,100 manufactured between June and December. Accounting for that, the IATL production of Soviet trucks would be around 156,200... a increase over the 1940 figure by about 10,800 vehicles. This estimate is without factoring in any possible potential benefits from basically extorting the Germans out of a whole bunch of automotive manufacturing machine tools, since we don't know for sure how that worked out. However it's worth remembering that not all of this would go to the Red Army: a hefty chunk would be put into the economy so as to support the continued growth of Soviet industry. These vehicles would still be available to be mobilized for the Red Army, and the Soviets did mobilize 221,500 vehicles from the civilian economy OTL as per pre-war mobilization plans so likely all the domestic production for 1941 will be available for that, but the process of mobilizing those vehicles from the civilian economy historically took about two to three months.
So, assuming the Red Army was expecting serious regular resistance, then the state of their motor park is at the moment something of a problem for them. And while the skeleton German forces and the Polish irregulars aren't in much of a state to give any serious impediment to westward Red Army movement, the approaching Anglo-French are and the Soviets can't discount the possibility they might do so. So unless the Soviets decide to throw caution to the wind (which would be quite out of character for Stalin), mobilizing up the truck park is a safer bet then trying to pell-mell it right now.
Fortunately for the 3rd it seems they can't be moved to Berlin in time.
So does that mean members from the Benes government will be forced to join the Osuský government?
Where Himmler tried to 'negotiate' a peace in 45 right? As I remember in Downfall Hitler reading a report shat Himmler was there, or a place that sounds similar.
Anyway I take it that the British army will be moving again soon.
The Royall Engineers to have a good reputation for a reason.
I take it the Yugoslavs are getting more confident with the end of the war in sight?
RIP the messenger.
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Probably not much more then some old men and boys lead by staff officers and training cadre. Probably with the occasional rifle too.
Actually, given where the other armies are those guys need to advance along the Baltic coast. This is really just tidying up their flanks and getting in position for this.
Germany. Most of their available forces have been in Romania, keeping an eye on the Soviets however...
Which is why he didn’t accept the answer...
This is an example of Soviet planning not being very nimble - it isn't accounting for the uprising or the collapse of the Germans in the west.
As for selling the trucks to the Germans, the question asked was “will the Soviet Union be in danger if we sell these”. Self-evidently the Germans are not a danger, and the entente are viewed as an unfriendly neutral for the foreseeable future.
Not a chance. That was someone else’s decision, for which STAVKA can’t be blamed. Classic slopey shoulders syndrome...
Uh... I’m going to have to check that. The intent was the pocketed armies west of the Rhine surrendering, with that being the vast majority of German forces in the field. However I currently have a weaselly three-year-old asleep on me and am leaving for my sister’s wedding shortly, so probably can’t check until Monday...
Stalin wasn’t only a bloodstained thug...
It’s also worth noting that the plan presented was predicated on a number of assumptions no longer true. Liberating the whole of Poland for instance isn’t practical given that other people have done it first...
Not yet - Stalin was never that bad. Things may get worse next time if they don’t come up with a better answer however...
A lot of empty petrol tanks. For the next day or two...
Craggy Island.
The majority ironically enough probably filled using captured german Jerrycans at this point. If the flimsies are still in use... Well then 30% of the fuel is probably gone before even getting in the fuel tanks.
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I think the implication is less that Stalin orders the charge no matter what and more "it's really tragic that you drew the short straw, enjoy Siberia, I'll send your family along in a few days."
You have Hans, Fritz, and Walter with one Mauser, one Potatomasher, and 4 rounds of ammo between them
I guess Osusky will offer some of them
place in new Czechoslovak Government in order to “unite” home and foreign resistance.
So Munich agreement is finally written off, I guess Polish gains from 1938 as well - Polish gains in Slovakia were retaken by “Czechoslovak government in hiding” in September 1939, while Tesin by Osusky’s government in December 1941.
Remains question of Vienna award. Hungary now co belligerent in war against Nazis has strong diplomatic leverage. On other side, Czechoslovakia as 1st victim of Nazis too. I guess Czechoslovakia will request back territory occupied by Hungary in March war 1939. No Hungarian majority or even minority there. Plebiscite will be in order on other territories along the border, very likely followed by population exchanges.
Ruthenia on other side is very likely screwed. Could Hungarians at least be pressed for some form of cultural autonomy for Ruthenians?
Could ask the same question in @. The war clearly being lost did not stop the Germans from fighting right up until the last.
Eric S. Raymond
Banned
It's worth bearing in mind that, given this is 1941 and not '45, that these are not the Volkssturm. With four years' less immersion in Nazi propaganda and less toughening by wartime conditions, I think we can expect less fanaticism, less willingness to die for the Fuhrer and the Fatherland.
While awaiting ngf's excellent maps, here's a map of the wider European area (using some of the other good base maps we have from the site) including Iceland and the Faroes* and all of Hungary (showing the border between Hungary and Romania as pdf27 seemed to describe it). The Moldavian SSR and Ukrainian SSR internal borders are inaccurate in the region of the former Moldavian ASSR:
*occupied by the UK, but as the war is likely to be over long before 1944 they will be returned to the status quo ante bellum most likely as the British during the war were very much against territorial changes and in OTL (they nixed an attempted Faroese move to independence and likely would have disapproved of the Icelandic referendum on ending the personal union with Denmark and becoming a republic if they were still in Iceland in 1944 in OTL). Iceland probably still goes on to become a republic in 1944 ITTL anyway though.
*occupied by the UK, but as the war is likely to be over long before 1944 they will be returned to the status quo ante bellum most likely as the British during the war were very much against territorial changes and in OTL (they nixed an attempted Faroese move to independence and likely would have disapproved of the Icelandic referendum on ending the personal union with Denmark and becoming a republic if they were still in Iceland in 1944 in OTL). Iceland probably still goes on to become a republic in 1944 ITTL anyway though.