A Blunted Sickle - Thread II

[ObssesedNuker]

I am aware of how far Hanoi is from Vladivostok; Japan and China are kind of in the way. I was suggesting that the Soviets might see advantages to keeping Japan in the way, and serious disadvantages to, say, Japan at any point folding to Entente pressure, or losing a war against the Entente, and giving the Entente influence much closer to Vladivostok. It seems better for the Soviets that Japan not be too weak (though certainly not too strong, either).

I'd imagine the Soviets would be quite willing to drive the Japanese off of mainland Asia[1] if they could also ensure their guy wins out in China (although whether "their guy" would be Mao or Chiang would probably be something-to-be-determined by the subsequent Civil War). China as a modernizing partner would be more then able to counteract a Japan which shifts to a more pro-Entente extent[2]... on the caveat they could be kept loyal (which is why a Sino-Soviet split would be... problematic).

[1]Taking the war to the Japanese home islands is obviously a laughable possibility given even a cursory comparison between the IJN and the Soviet Pacific Fleet.
[2]Although given the lack of OTL's Pacific War, I can't see the Japanese moderating their ambitions that they would be comfortable Entente allies for quite a while.

 

[What if]

I think there are a few reasons for the slow advance.
First, the Hungarians probably don't have the complete information as to just how bad things are for the Germans.
Second, Before the German Civil War, there were units of the German Military perfectly capable of Eviscerating the Hungarian Troops.
Third, The Hungarians *really* don't have to accomplish much. They *know* that the British are heading for Berlin, the French are attemping to encircle the Germans in the Ruhr. . They'll get points for "Trying", and most of those "points" in Austria can be gotten by taking Vienna.
Fourth, they'll save more lives in Poland. An Austrian who keeps his/her head down is highly unlikely to die if the Hungarians don't get there in time. In Poland, they are getting less food and/or revolting against the Germans.

I didn't mean to imply the Hungarians were slow, rather with most of the German military encircled is there anything actually left.

Some people know what's going on, but it isn't being widely shared. I wonder why...

That's interesting to know about.

I'd imagine the Soviets would be quite willing to drive the Japanese off of mainland Asia[1] if they could also ensure their guy wins out in China (although whether "their guy" would be Mao or Chiang would probably be something-to-be-determined by the subsequent Civil War). China as a modernizing partner would be more then able to counteract a Japan which shifts to a more pro-Entente extent[2]... on the caveat they could be kept loyal (which is why a Sino-Soviet split would be... problematic).

[1]Taking the war to the Japanese home islands is obviously a laughable possibility given even a cursory comparison between the IJN and the Soviet Pacific Fleet.
[2]Although given the lack of OTL's Pacific War, I can't see the Japanese moderating their ambitions that they would be comfortable Entente allies for quite a while.

A major social disruption (civil war or something like that) might be needed to either replace the government or shift its attitudes at the current rate.

 

[Legault]

Nah screw peace I want Richelieu & Jean Bart+Royal Navy VS the IJN in South East Asia!

 

[SsgtC]

Nah screw peace I want Richelieu & Jean Bart+Royal Navy VS the IJN in South East Asia!

I want to see the Montana class end up in a gun duel with the Yamato class!

 

[marathag]

Howard Hughes would be dreadfully upset if Lockheed were wasting time on bombers at the expense of him getting his L-049 aircraft on time for TWA. With the US not at war, it isn't happening.

From the wiki
Along with the assembly lines, the Lockheed L-049 Constellation airliner was also requisitioned and redesignated C-69 and was to be used as an equipment and personnel transport by the United States Army Air Forces (USAAF). In February 1942, the 80 L-049/L-149 Constellations ordered by Transcontinental & Western Air and Pan American World Airways were also requisitioned. The 50 L-049s both airlines had on order were to be redesignated C-69 and C-69A, respectively, and used as troop transport aircraft. The 30 L-149 aircraft Pan Am had on order were replaced by the similar model L-349 (difference being the cargo door on the upper left hand side of the aircraft and the ability to carry cargo) and designated C-69B.

So in this TL, Lockheed had made both Howard and Juan happy with Airliners scheduled deliveries for late- '42-early '43 since the USAAC hasn't taken them over, Boeing hasn't glommed onto evry single Wright R-3350, and the company is free to shoot for that Bomber Project once the airline orders are finished

 

[Donald Reaver]

I want to see Japan and the West not going to war and adding millions more dead to end it.

 

[AlanJWhite]

I want to see Japan and the West not going to war and adding millions more dead to end it.

but would you want the Japanese to continue causing the deaths of 1-2 million Chinese each year for the next ten years to maintain the current "peace" in Asia?

 

[pdf27]

I want to see Japan and the West not going to war and adding millions more dead to end it.

Remember, nuclear weapons are still coming fast. Within a few years, any war between Japan and the Entente will turn nuclear straight away...

 

[zhropkick]

but would you want the Japanese to continue causing the deaths of 1-2 million Chinese each year for the next ten years to maintain the current "peace" in Asia?

This is China we're talking about, those are rookie numbers.

 

[AlanJWhite]

This is China we're talking about, those are rookie numbers.

What is often overlooked is that total Japanese deaths 1937-1945 ... including civilians killed by American bombing firestorms and nuclear combined .. were less than Chinese deaths each year at the peak of the Japanese invasion

(and over two-thirds of Japanese deaths were military personnel compared to less than one-fifth of Chinas loss )

Overall, counting those killed in all the territory attacked by the Japanese from 1930 they caused the death of nearly as many as Nazi Germany did in the same period

and yet the Japanese suffered less than half the casualties and were given far more lenient treatment by the victors.

Figures very approximate and rounded

 

[RMcD94]

Thread marks or link to story only thread?

 

[Rufus Shinra]

Thread marks or link to story only thread?

Only if you send a donation to a charity of the author's choice. The author said that here and there. Dunno which charity, though.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

Remember, nuclear weapons are still coming fast. Within a few years, any war between Japan and the Entente will turn nuclear straight away...

Oh yeah... so possibly will any war between the Soviets and the Japanese once the USSR gets the bomb. Guess that's one way the Soviets could take the war to the Japanese home islands. And vice-versa if it takes place after the Japanese develop their own nukes.

Hrm… anyone getting the feeling horizontal proliferation could be even more of a problem IATL? We have a lot more atomic programs that are operating independently of each other which means even more rapid diffusion of information and technology.

 

[Rufus Shinra]

Hrm… anyone getting the feeling horizontal proliferation could be even more of a problem IATL? We have a lot more atomic programs that are operating independently of each other which means even more rapid diffusion of information and technology.

There will be a lot less countries overall as the empires are still there.

 

[MarshalofMontival]

Also rocketry hasn't gotten it's OTL boost from the V1 and V2 programs, so for the foreseeable future the only real way to deliver a nuclear warhead will be by heavy bomber. Those things are expensive, both upfront and in continuous expenses. And I doubt that England and France will allow nuclear-capable bombers to be sold or license-built by countries that aren't beholden to them in some way. Admittedly they can't do much if America or Soviet Russia start proliferating nuclear-capable bombers, but that's a different question entirely.

 

[naraht]

Also rocketry hasn't gotten it's OTL boost from the V1 and V2 programs, so for the foreseeable future the only real way to deliver a nuclear warhead will be by heavy bomber. Those things are expensive, both upfront and in continuous expenses. And I doubt that England and France will allow nuclear-capable bombers to be sold or license-built by countries that aren't beholden to them in some way. Admittedly they can't do much if America or Soviet Russia start proliferating nuclear-capable bombers, but that's a different question entirely.

iOTL, by 1950, how widespread were bombers capable of dropping "Little Boy"? And how common were bombers that could drop an H-bomb?

And without rockets, nukes are a lot easier to shoot down for a nation with an active Anti-air setup.

 

[marathag]

Also rocketry hasn't gotten it's OTL boost from the V1 and V2 programs

OTL the USA was testing solid fuel for RATO
Units for aircraft in 1941, from prewar Greenlighting for research from Hap Arnold for the Guggenheim Aeronautical Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, commonly known as GALCIT, while Goddard was getting funding from the Navy for his hypergolic RFNA and Gasoline and then Aniline designs

It's best to recall that Army and Navy didn't play well with each other, though not to the level of the amazing disfunctional relationship of the IJN and IJA.

With the War, that was toned down. No War, poor relations will continue, with each doing their own Rocketplane research.

 

[Eric S. Raymond]

I want to see the Montana class end up in a gun duel with the Yamato class!

That can be arranged. In simulation, anyway.

There's an online game called "World Of Warships" that is pretty painstaking and detailed. The Yamato and Montana classes are available as player ships.

I have not yet played it myself, but I've watched a lot of replay videos with commentary by a very entertaining YouTuber who styles himself "The Mighty Jingles". They are worth your time.

 

[dunHozzie]

Jingles is a Great guy. Happily recommended him too

 

[aldonius]

I doubt that England and France will allow nuclear-capable bombers to be sold or license-built by countries that aren't beholden to them in some way

Seems to me that if a country can run an atomics programme, they can probably also run an bomber programme. And the Jet Age is surely about to arrive...