I imagine the Entente will aim for some post war agreement with the SU about the border. Neither side wants a conflict at this point and the Soviets will be unwilling to give up large parts of Belarus, they may be willing to return areas with large polish populations seeing them as more trouble than they are worth. Maybe a trade of Memel for Bialystok?
A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
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I imagine the Entente will aim for some post war agreement with the SU about the border. Neither side wants a conflict at this point and the Soviets will be unwilling to give up large parts of Belarus, they may be willing to return areas with large polish populations seeing them as more trouble than they are worth. Maybe a trade of Memel for Bialystok?
By the time the British take Berlin, never mind reach Poland/East Prussia, the current German-Soviet border is liable to be so devoid of forces the Soviets wouldn’t need to fully gear up and they could just walk into places like Memel.
Well, there’s de-facto recognition and de-jure recognition. The former is really most pertinent to your question and Anglo-French made clear their stance on this matter of back in September 1939 when they replied to a Polish request to DoW the Soviets by telling them that their guarantee of Poland’s sovereignty was not a guarantee of their territorial integrity. So as far as the Anglo-French are concerned, they don’t like the fact the Soviets are in control of the Baltic’s and Eastern Poland and won’t give it any more legitimacy with formal recognition, but they do recognize the fact of Soviet control over these territories and will behave accordingly.
Well, there’s de-facto recognition and de-jure recognition. The former is really most pertinent to your question and Anglo-French made clear their stance on this matter of back in September 1939 when they replied to a Polish request to DoW the Soviets by telling them that their guarantee of Poland’s sovereignty was not a guarantee of their territorial integrity. So as far as the Anglo-French are concerned, they don’t like the fact the Soviets are in control of the Baltic’s and Eastern Poland and won’t give it any more legitimacy with formal recognition, but they do recognize the fact of Soviet control over these territories and will behave accordingly.
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Of course this also implies the Soviets will only do things to NOT cause a re-evaluation. Seizing formerly-Lithuanian Memel? Possible. Crossing in force into occupied Poland? Not so possible.
That being the case, we can probably expect the Field Marshal von Kleist to launch one final offensive with whatever he can scrape together to try to seize a bridge across the Rhine before he surrenders Army Group A. It will likely be repulsed with heavy casualties on both sides, but the honor of the German Army would be preserved. This, of course, is contingent on his headquarters not being overrun by the French forces running in his rear before he can issue the orders.
29th December 1941
Shortly after dawn, Jozef Tiso is arrested by the Slovak Army and transferred to the Capuchin monastery in Pezinok, where he is to be held in isolation from the outside world. His arrest is not made public.
With much improved weather in the Wadden Sea, sweeping operations continue apace. HMS Bagshot is the only casualty of the day, with the majority of the crew being rescued successfully. Shortly before midnight the first barges dock at Cuxhaven with a mix of fuel, ammunition and medical supplies, although the sweeping operations will continue until the Steinwerder docks can be opened.
After a few pot-shots were taken at the sweepers by a shore battery on Heligoland, a scratch force of British and Dutch marines is landed and take the island after a short firefight.
Pretelat's and Giraud's forces link up at the village of Niederheimbach, completing the encirclement of Kleist's forces. This was somewhat of a foregone conclusion in any case, with the French First Army under Prioux having advanced up the Moselle valley to within spitting distance of Trier and joining up with Conde's Third Army.
Finally, in the East the Hungarians complete the capture of Vienna and start advancing cautiously up the valley of the Danube.
Shortly after dawn, Jozef Tiso is arrested by the Slovak Army and transferred to the Capuchin monastery in Pezinok, where he is to be held in isolation from the outside world. His arrest is not made public.
With much improved weather in the Wadden Sea, sweeping operations continue apace. HMS Bagshot is the only casualty of the day, with the majority of the crew being rescued successfully. Shortly before midnight the first barges dock at Cuxhaven with a mix of fuel, ammunition and medical supplies, although the sweeping operations will continue until the Steinwerder docks can be opened.
After a few pot-shots were taken at the sweepers by a shore battery on Heligoland, a scratch force of British and Dutch marines is landed and take the island after a short firefight.
Pretelat's and Giraud's forces link up at the village of Niederheimbach, completing the encirclement of Kleist's forces. This was somewhat of a foregone conclusion in any case, with the French First Army under Prioux having advanced up the Moselle valley to within spitting distance of Trier and joining up with Conde's Third Army.
Finally, in the East the Hungarians complete the capture of Vienna and start advancing cautiously up the valley of the Danube.
Howard Hughes would be dreadfully upset if Lockheed were wasting time on bombers at the expense of him getting his L-049 aircraft on time for TWA. With the US not at war, it isn't happening.Besides the Boeing B-29 and Convair B-32, there was a design for the XB-30 from Lockheed
Basically a quick conversion of the C-69 Transport, this never got past scale model stage.
Now in this TL, with no need for big bombers Right Now, this may have a chance for a small production run.
Any TL that has a chance for more Constellations is a good one
It's getting very close to that situation already. The problem is simply that things are changing so fast - and the Soviets probably don't have a clear idea of just how far and fast the Entente forces are advancing. So even if Stalin was happy to take a risk, the chances are he's going to be too late anyway because he thinks he has more time than he really does.
It's a mix of things. All else being the same (i.e. no revolt) they wouldn't have moved until the spring. However, given that the Poles have launched a major uprising they have two choices: attack now which will bring the war to an end with increased casualties on their part, or sit still and leave the Poles to their fate. That has a large number of undesirable impacts on the postwar world - starting with Poland being aligned with someone other than the Entente after the war, and working their way up from there. Launching an all-out attack keeps them in the driving seat and ensures that they get to shape the postwar situation in Europe.
The Entente wouldn't have launched the attack without an uprising, even knowing that the Soviets would walk in otherwise. With an uprising, the potential impacts of leaving them alone postwar are much more serious, at least as viewed by the politicians of the time.
They aren't getting in a shooting war with the USSR, which is what would happen if they actually did anything. Now, unofficially, they aren't going to be too careful about keeping out anybody who wants to flee across the border in their direction - but neither Paris nor London are getting involved in what happens in the Soviet controlled zone. If the Poles want to, they're on their own.
The Timmelsjoch will be closed, but the Brenner and Reschen passes should probably be passable - and the Brenner has an available railway line up it.
The problem the Italians have is that their forces are in the wrong place, and like the Soviets they don't really understand the urgency of the situation. The BBC, etc. aren't going to be giving details of how fast the advances are: at least in part because large fractions of the Heer would only be finding out from the BBC, but also to keep the Soviets in the dark as much as possible. This will also have the same effect on the Italians, who will be thinking that they have more time than they really do.
And him being able to find anybody willing to follow the orders...
He chose Poorly.
Who took Cuxhaven, the British or the Dutch?
So, no British big bang on Heligoland? (and who ends up with it post-war?)
Note Niederheimbach is on the West side of the Rhine, which means the pocket doesn't even reach the Rhine where they met.
I'm *guessing* the French want to capture Kleist, but aren't particularly interested in punishing him for the 25 years the Soviets did iOTL. Depends on how well they've been able to figure out who did the early war massacres.
And additionally, from the answer thread...
So the Eastern Border of Poland will be sort of like the intergerman border iOTL.
the question is whether all of the land taken by the Soviets from Poland iTTL will be added to Belarus (&Ukraine?) or made into a People's Republic of Poland or into a Polish SSR. (or something even wierder)
Also, we'll see whether all of the countries on the immediate west side of effective Soviet control will all be in one defense alliance. (That would be the F/S Union, Poland, (czecho)Slovakia and Romania, right?)
As the BBC goes something like, "Yes, we haven't had much news over the last week, but BTW, the British in Berlin just took the German surrender and British troops should be arriving in Warsaw tomorrow morning supported by ships landing at Gdansk."
Eric S. Raymond
Banned
A rumor that unmentionable pinnipeds were sighted during the Heligoland action could not be confirmed at press time.
Eyewitness accounts claim that they were last seen near the Frisian Islands.
Caught up. Surprised Italy hasn't moved yet; it seems like letting Hungary get involved while continuing to remain aloof themselves is going to undermine their position in postwar negotiations.
In other topics, I got the impression that the reason the USSR was willing to be somewhat cooperative with the Nazis in this timeline (and in OTL) was partly because they wanted their rivals disunited; it was better that there be fascists and capitalists squabbling with one another than that there be only capitalists presenting a united threat against the USSR. As a result, while they certainly would try to get paid as well as possible, I would have actually expected them to try to find more ways to help Germany in this timeline, though by where we've gotten to now, it has of course become pointless and moving on Poland instead makes sense. But I would think that would have big consequences for Asia. Stalin surely doesn't want the Entente encamped on both his eastern and western borders, so I think the chances for the Soviets being willing to find ways to work with the Japanese are a lot higher than some people are suggesting. I know the Soviets want Manchuria, but perhaps they could instead make a deal where they get a free hand in western and central China in exchange for letting the Japanese keep Manchuria and their gains along the coast; not a great deal for the Soviets, except in the actually fairly important sense that it helps keep a counter-balance to the capitalist powers in the Pacific.
In other topics, I got the impression that the reason the USSR was willing to be somewhat cooperative with the Nazis in this timeline (and in OTL) was partly because they wanted their rivals disunited; it was better that there be fascists and capitalists squabbling with one another than that there be only capitalists presenting a united threat against the USSR. As a result, while they certainly would try to get paid as well as possible, I would have actually expected them to try to find more ways to help Germany in this timeline, though by where we've gotten to now, it has of course become pointless and moving on Poland instead makes sense. But I would think that would have big consequences for Asia. Stalin surely doesn't want the Entente encamped on both his eastern and western borders, so I think the chances for the Soviets being willing to find ways to work with the Japanese are a lot higher than some people are suggesting. I know the Soviets want Manchuria, but perhaps they could instead make a deal where they get a free hand in western and central China in exchange for letting the Japanese keep Manchuria and their gains along the coast; not a great deal for the Soviets, except in the actually fairly important sense that it helps keep a counter-balance to the capitalist powers in the Pacific.
Now it's time to take the Frisian Islands and really put the noose around Germany's neck.
Given that negotiations seems to have been successful I wonder what the Slovakian s next move will be.
The British advance will restart shortly I take it given these developments.
I wonder if this is the first thing Berlin will be able to figure out has happened (other than the Hungarian war declaration)?
Is there anything left that could offer resistance?
Deleted member 94708
Which would of course have made a wonderful staging area for invading in the opposite direction...
I think there are a few reasons for the slow advance.
First, the Hungarians probably don't have the complete information as to just how bad things are for the Germans.
Second, Before the German Civil War, there were units of the German Military perfectly capable of Eviscerating the Hungarian Troops.
Third, The Hungarians *really* don't have to accomplish much. They *know* that the British are heading for Berlin, the French are attemping to encircle the Germans in the Ruhr. . They'll get points for "Trying", and most of those "points" in Austria can be gotten by taking Vienna.
Fourth, they'll save more lives in Poland. An Austrian who keeps his/her head down is highly unlikely to die if the Hungarians don't get there in time. In Poland, they are getting less food and/or revolting against the Germans.
British
No reason for it - they've got a couple of elderly coastal artillery guns and some fishing boats. Remember the OTL fortifications were destroyed under the Treaty of Versailles and they only re-militarised it shortly before the start of the war. Here, the Germans simply haven't had the resources they had to put into fortifying it in OTL.
Not exactly - over Christmas they've got plenty of non-news programmes to broadcast, and nobody really expects any serious news...
Place is full of seals, apparently...
Remember what time of year it is. The Hungarians moved because they'd been talking to the Poles (possibly even before the Poles talked to the British and French!). Nobody has been telling the Italians what's going on, so all they know is what the Embassy in Berlin can tell them, which isn't very useful.
It's worth remembering just how great the distances are in Asia. Vladivostok is almost 2,000 miles from Hanoi, the nearest major city under Entente control. The closest they come to each other is either side of Afghanistan - and the British are clearly on their way out of India. The Japanese on the other hand have fought the Soviets very recently at Khalkin Gol, and clearly have an interest in moving north if they can.
Yep - they really need the Hamburg docks so it'll be another day or two though. Cuxhaven is just too small.
Some people know what's going on, but it isn't being widely shared. I wonder why...
The weather, and the Entente logistics!
It's also worth remembering that the French and - particularly - the British are vastly more mechanised than everybody else. That means they can move faster, and critically can sustain that advance: everybody else is moving like slugs by comparison.[/QUOTE]
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So the British reached the North Sea, and thus the Dutch are no longer advancing on their flank, I guess. Still going to be of use if the Gasoline shortages have reduced the British to bicycles as well.
Going to be a heck of a shock in the "year in review" programme then.
I'd consider Hong Kong to be the nearest major city under Entente Control. Shanghai with the International Settlement and the French Concession wouldn't appear to me to count, nor Macao. However the Entente seems aligned with CKS, so pick your most northern city "controlled" by the Nationalists.
Hamburg, OTOH, should be large enough for just about everything in Germany (for Poland, something in the Baltic)
Though with the lack of Fuel, the British aren't moving *that* much faster...
I am aware of how far Hanoi is from Vladivostok; Japan and China are kind of in the way. I was suggesting that the Soviets might see advantages to keeping Japan in the way, and serious disadvantages to, say, Japan at any point folding to Entente pressure, or losing a war against the Entente, and giving the Entente influence much closer to Vladivostok. It seems better for the Soviets that Japan not be too weak (though certainly not too strong, either).
Then again their viewpoint to the matter might be rather different: https://www.davidrumsey.com/luna/se..._List_No,Series_No;lc:RUMSEY~8~1&mi=6&trs=127