What Should Carter Have Done Differently?

[Amadeus]

When he entered office in 1977, Jimmy Carter was a widely popular President. But his hostile relationship with Congress, the faltering economy, the Iran Hostage Crisis, and his poor communication skills caused his support to plummet. In the end he lost the 1980 election in a landslide, leading to twelve years of Republican control of the White House.

So what should Carter have done differently? What could have turned around the poor economy and resolved the hostage crisis? Would this have been enough to re-elect him in 1980?

 

[David T]

"Don't let the Shah into the US until you get the US embassy people out of Iran" would at least be somewhat helpful...

 

[gatordad699]

From Wiki

Electoral vote 297 240[2]
States carried 23 + DC 27
Popular vote 40,831,881 39,148,634
Percentage 50.1% 48.0

Would not call this widely popular. Ford actually carried more states. That aside, he was in a tough position.

 

[NHBL]

He was in a tough spot to start. I know that there's a few threads on Carter somewhere in the backlog of the board; I need to find them.

He let the Shah in on pressure from Kissinger, but no matter what, Iran was going to be hostile, IMVHO. Still, no hostage taking, or a better reaction to them, would result in him doing better.

He needed to inspire confidence; he wasn't great at that.

I am working on a President Carter ASB timeline; it started in June of '76, and 75 chapters later, the '78 midterms have passed, so I'll be watching this section for thoughts.

If anyone's interested in my modest efforts, it's here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/masquerade-how-hard-would-this-be.433844/

 

[Amadeus]

From Wiki

Electoral vote 297 240[2]
States carried 23 + DC 27
Popular vote 40,831,881 39,148,634
Percentage 50.1% 48.0

Would not call this widely popular. Ford actually carried more states. That aside, he was in a tough position.

In the OP I was referring to when he took office in 1977 (not the '76 election), when his approvals were well over 70%. Granted, this was when Presidents usually had a honeymoon period when they were popular at least for the first hundred days. But my point was that Carter went from having widespread public support in 1977 to a landslide defeat three years later. And the central question is what he should have done to avoid this fate.

 

[Anglocalvinist67]

IMO two of his best decisions were hiring Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, and beginning a large military build up. Both decisions were late in his term.

Do them at least one year earlier. Inflation and military weakness were two major concerns from 1975 onward.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Withdrawn from NATO.

 

[DakotaTimeTraveler]

Carter's now infamous malaise speech hurt him more than anything. While the speech was considered favorable in the short run, it doomed him. While "malaise" was never used in Carter's speech, his opponents - Ted Kennedy, who would challenge him in the Democratic primary, and Ronald Reagan, who annihilated Carter in 1980 - used the term against him. Hell, people in his own cabinet and Vice President Mondale warned him about the speech potentially backfiring.

Carter's opposition used the malaise speech to portray him as grouchy and pessimistic while portraying themselves as optimistic and a source of hope.

 

[King Nazar]

Appoint Volcker sooner. Avoid the hostage crisis or react to it better. Better relations with Congress and work with Ted Kennedy to get his healthcare reform plan passed.

 

[Amadeus]

Appoint Volcker sooner. Avoid the hostage crisis or react to it better. Better relations with Congress and work with Ted Kennedy to get his healthcare reform plan passed.

Kennedy later said that if Carter had worked with him to pass healthcare reform, he would never have run in 1980.

 

[NHBL]

Kennedy later said that if Carter had worked with him to pass healthcare reform, he would never have run in 1980.

That is actually something I'm planning on doing in my "Masquerade" timeline--might be too little, too late, but it's in my plans.
I suspect that, if Eagle Claw had been successful, Kennedy might not have run in the primaries.

 

[Wendell]

Carter was faced with numerous challenges, some of which he could have dealt with better, and some over which he had no real control.

 

[marathag]

And the central question is what he should have done to avoid this fate.

It just wasn't bad relationships with Congress, but downright Toxic.
He repeatedly pissed off Tip O'Neil.
Who is dumb enough to do that?

Peanut was.

Also pissed off Bryd in the Senate in '77 for pushing thru Deregulation in Petroleum markets. This needed to be done, but not the way he pushed thru in the Senate. On a scale of being a dealmaker, with LBJ being a 9, Peanut was a 1

 

[Fulton 44]

1. Appoint Volcker to the Fed at the outset and get inflation down in the first two years of his term.
2. Deregulate oil and gas.
3. Let the Shah figure out how to deal with dissidents in Iran rather than pressuring him to implement Carter's version of "human rights".
4. Don't boycott the Olympics or restrict wheat sales to the USSR.
5. Hire a popular former Senator or Congressman to work the Hill rather than using an unsuccessful shoe salesman.

 

[Amadeus]

1. Appoint Volcker to the Fed at the outset and get inflation down in the first two years of his term.
2. Deregulate oil and gas.
3. Let the Shah figure out how to deal with dissidents in Iran rather than pressuring him to implement Carter's version of "human rights".
4. Don't boycott the Olympics or restrict wheat sales to the USSR.
5. Hire a popular former Senator or Congressman to work the Hill rather than using an unsuccessful shoe salesman.

I've never read that before about the shoe salesman. Is that true? Could you talk about this more?

 

[Bosemacher]

He was in a tough spot to start. I know that there's a few threads on Carter somewhere in the backlog of the board; I need to find them.

He let the Shah in on pressure from Kissinger, but no matter what, Iran was going to be hostile, IMVHO. Still, no hostage taking, or a better reaction to them, would result in him doing better.

He needed to inspire confidence; he wasn't great at that.

I am working on a President Carter ASB timeline; it started in June of '76, and 75 chapters later, the '78 midterms have passed, so I'll be watching this section for thoughts.

If anyone's interested in my modest efforts, it's here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/masquerade-how-hard-would-this-be.433844/

There is some evidence that Carter may have initially supported the Ayatollah.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution

 

[NHBL]

There is some evidence that Carter may have initially supported the Ayatollah.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...i-jimmy-carter-administration-iran-revolution

Thanks. I know that he was very unhappy with the idea of having the Shah in the United States, but that would be the case no matter what he felt about Iran. Interesting articles there--thanks!

 

[marathag]

I've never read that before about the shoe salesman. Is that true? Could you talk about this more?

Alonzo 'Al' McDonald, White House Staff Director. Peanut didn't even have a Chief of Staff til Hamilton Jordan took that position.

Al, another one from Georgia but not one of the original 'Georgia Mafia' came in late to try and clean up the mess that Jodan had been doing for two years

 

[Amadeus]

Alonzo 'Al' McDonald, White House Staff Director. Peanut didn't even have a Chief of Staff til Hamilton Jordan took that position.

Al, another one from Georgia but not one of the original 'Georgia Mafia' came in late to try and clean up the mess that Jodan had been doing for two years

I think Carter didn't understand that although you can run and win as a Washington outsider, you can't govern as one. Had Carter embraced the Congressional leadership as allies he could've gotten a lot more done. This would potentially benefit the economy and the chances of passing health care reform, which would brighten his hopes for 1980.

 

[Wendell]

I think Carter didn't understand that although you can run and win as a Washington outsider, you can't govern as one. Had Carter embraced the Congressional leadership as allies he could've gotten a lot more done. This would potentially benefit the economy and the chances of passing health care reform, which would brighten his hopes for 1980.

Carter was a "New South" governor facing an emboldened, progressive Congress with a smattering of bitter Republicans and suspicious old guard Southern Democrats. He could embrace the Congress and lose his base, or he could attempt to forward his own agenda (something for which an insider chief of staff would have been helpful), and attempt to reshape the party in his own mold.