A Blunted Sickle - Thread II
- Thread starter pdf27
- Start date
A quick summary of the goals of the still neutral powers in the European continent and the world at large:
Italy: Securing the Balkan sphere of influence from Stalin. A seat on the table where the future of Europe will be decided is a nice bonus, if that can be arranged on time. Tiso might soon receive an offer he can't refuse with Il Duce as a "mediator."
Romania: Greater Romania seems less likely by the day, and the prewar relations to the Poles were far from icy. In addition the Romanian military is on high readiness due their unfortunate position. If Il Duce wants to thwart Soviet plans, Romania might be at the very least be willing to listen, as a land border to postwar Entente is very much on their interests.
Hungary: The territories gained from Czechoslovakia must be retained at all costs. Soviet threat must be kept at bay. The best way to do it might be by pressuring Slovaks to the Italian camp.
Sweden: the defeat of Germany is almost certain, and Entente will be the only game in town after that. The trained Norwegian and Danish forces in Swedish soil are too small to fight, but can be quickly dispatched to secure surrender of German occupation garrisons if need be.
Finland: *frantically building new bunkers to the Salpa Line and worrying about the threat of famine* - as Entente is providing large parts of the grain shipments delivered from Germany in OTL, London and Paris could most likely force Finns to stop trading with Germany now if they threatened to stop shipping food if Helsinki refuses to comply.
Spain: the Sun is shining, Spanish workers are sending back money from agricultural work at southern France, and the material damage of civil war is being rebuild.
And for rest of world:
US:
“After all, the chief business of the American people is business. They are profoundly concerned with producing, buying, selling, investing and prospering in the world. I am strongly of the opinion that the great majority of people will always find these the moving impulses of our life.”
Japan: Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Italy: Securing the Balkan sphere of influence from Stalin. A seat on the table where the future of Europe will be decided is a nice bonus, if that can be arranged on time. Tiso might soon receive an offer he can't refuse with Il Duce as a "mediator."
Romania: Greater Romania seems less likely by the day, and the prewar relations to the Poles were far from icy. In addition the Romanian military is on high readiness due their unfortunate position. If Il Duce wants to thwart Soviet plans, Romania might be at the very least be willing to listen, as a land border to postwar Entente is very much on their interests.
Hungary: The territories gained from Czechoslovakia must be retained at all costs. Soviet threat must be kept at bay. The best way to do it might be by pressuring Slovaks to the Italian camp.
Sweden: the defeat of Germany is almost certain, and Entente will be the only game in town after that. The trained Norwegian and Danish forces in Swedish soil are too small to fight, but can be quickly dispatched to secure surrender of German occupation garrisons if need be.
Finland: *frantically building new bunkers to the Salpa Line and worrying about the threat of famine* - as Entente is providing large parts of the grain shipments delivered from Germany in OTL, London and Paris could most likely force Finns to stop trading with Germany now if they threatened to stop shipping food if Helsinki refuses to comply.
Spain: the Sun is shining, Spanish workers are sending back money from agricultural work at southern France, and the material damage of civil war is being rebuild.
And for rest of world:
US:
“After all, the chief business of the American people is business. They are profoundly concerned with producing, buying, selling, investing and prospering in the world. I am strongly of the opinion that the great majority of people will always find these the moving impulses of our life.”
Japan: Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Asian Jumbo
Monthly Donor
@pdf27 “Besides, I manage to kill off Hitler in a new and (I think) original way, and you guys want to talk about bananas?”
Perhaps you forgot where you are? This is AlternateHistory.com. Welcome. We ALWAYS talk about food!
(Thank you for a great timeline, even if it is a little light on comestibles...)
Perhaps you forgot where you are? This is AlternateHistory.com. Welcome. We ALWAYS talk about food!
(Thank you for a great timeline, even if it is a little light on comestibles...)
This will be tough though. Slovaks could be willing enter union with Prague again under different - Federal conditions. And Slovaks had pretty large part in Czechoslovak exile army and with Osusky also in government.
Not just that but Hungary gained not just Hungarian but also strictly Slovak and Ruthenian territories. Best they can hope for is plebiscite.
The Horthy regime knows this, and is most likely rather anxious about the postwar status quo right now. Italy is a fickle ally, and Hungary alone is too weak to resist if Entente comes knocking. So how to promote the status of Hungary in the eyes of the postwar victors?
Supporting strike into Austria would help, wouldn’t it? At least to get into position to be able to negotiate for majority Hungarian territories gained post Munich.
Heck Slovaks may decide to do something similar either to Austria or towards Protectorate. With situation Germany is in Protectorate could be sparely garrisoned. Especially as some Army officers had contacts with government in Exile.
I guess French and Brits should as soon as offensive starts sent some envoys to Budapest and Bratislava for secret negotiation. However especially for negotiation with Bratislava they need to reach also to Czechoslovak government in Exile as to what future plans are/ will be.
Decius00009
Banned
Actually, one fate for Hitler I haven't seen is him actually standing trial. I thought that's where this was going. His fate here is certainly poetic, but I would have liked to see him rant at Nuremberg. Though I don't see those kinds of trials here
One thing nobody (including the Entente) has really understood yet ITTL is how much the relative balance of power has shifted: the BEF alone can probably apply more combat power than the whole Wehrmacht put together, and can move faster in an advance than the Germans can retreat. Because of the German catastrophe at Paris, nobody has been brave enough to risk a "Plan 1919" style deep operation again - here, the British in particular are being forced into one. This is why the casualty estimates are so high, but the reality is that they are very likely to tiny by comparison - this is really an out-of-context problem for everybody, and no doubt the wrong lessons will be drawn from it too.
Even if they did, they would rapidly be rounded up by the occupying forces.
Thank you.
- Italy will also probably have been looking southwards, rather than to the north, so IMHO are likely to get a little bit behind the curve compared to everyone else. Mussolini could sometimes make himself look like an idiot while standing still.
- Finland will be fine for food - the Union with Sweden makes a big difference here, and the Narvik line is now fully double-tracked so the available tonnage is rather large.
- US is going to be having some local pain with cancelled contracts from the Entente though -
True. I should be glad they're talking about fruit rather than rotten fish.
Yeah, that's a can of worms to be opened after the war.
That'll be something that Horthy et al will have been trying to figure out for quite a while now.
The whole Nuremberg concept was a very American one, so not really an option ITTL. In any case, people write about what they know, and there don't seem to be many lawyers on here.
Don't get me wrong, even if everything goes right Poland will have a pretty awful time during the war ITTL. Things are a little better for everyone because the war is so much shorter, but that doesn't make it a nice place to life - and Poland in particular will suffer disproportionately.
I doubt it. in OTL Stalin tried to purge the proponents of deep operations, and only really changed his mind after the German's success with blitzkrieg tactics. Here, with the Sickle Cut blowing up in Germany's face spectacularly, Stalin isn't going to be so confident in that sort of warfare.
Speaking of which, I wonder if the German's 1940 TTL decision to advance directly towards Paris on a narrow front like it's 1814 is going to end up being seem as one of the greatest military mistakes in history?
Note I said the BRITISH might stumble onto it. Because what is being planned looks pretty close to it, the only question will be if anyone considers it for general applicability (rather than on a defeated enemy that has lost its key industrial region and just went through an almost-civil-war). Initial attack destroys frontline and immediate rear areas, followup forces advance rapidly over a broad front thereby annihilating newly forming defences before they can be established, while (by necessity) ignoring the flanks to a limited extent.
It will be interesting to see what happens when the German lines completely rupture. With the Rhine already bypassed, this leaves only two major rivers that need to be crossed, the Weser and the Elbe. (And when the Allies reach the Elbe, the Berlin city defenses may be within artillery range.)
As for where to cross the Weser, just hope no one is stupid enough to call it Operation Pied Piper.
Even without the double tracking my guess is that neither the Germans or the Soviets can interfere with shipping in the Gulf of Bothnia, but defense of the Gulf might lead to the re-militarization of Åland.
overninethousands
Banned
and nobody in the future will, too. Hitler just vanished into a black hole.
Driftless
Donor
Perhaps the most famous unsolved mystery of this universe. You can bet the farm there would be imposters having a go at resurrecting Der Fuhrer, but with dubious success, I'd think. (by comparison, how many Romanov imposters popped up in the 20's and 30's?)
*later edit* I think under the circumstances, any Hitler imposters are likely to be very brazen con men, hoping for some type of a quick score by deluding the post-war Nazi faithful. No easier mark than the True Believers. To try to pull off a scam like that in the open is a sure invitation to either immediate arrest or quick assassination - very high risk/low reward.
Last edited:
I do suppose that German Army high command has been wee bit distracted as of late to make any large strategic shifts in units.
Late-March/Early-April. So the Soviets’ll have about a month assuming they don’t get pre-empted (which looks like it’ll be the case). One interesting consequence is that preparations for this attack means cutting the winter exercises short, although combat experience will make up for that if their able to carry the assault off.
Hitler's dissapearence is going to be one of the great mysteries of TTL. The theories of what may have happened to him will be interesting. I'm sure the conspiracy theories will be amazingly bonkers!
overninethousands
Banned
the trail stops at the first hospital after what himmler and all the others are dead so nobody knows... and since hitler body was cremated, no chance to ever find it like the romanovs...