Slow Drift to War Europe 1984

[MountainPuncher]

I wonder if chemical/biological weapons will come into play later down the line?

I’ll bet it’ll be something along the lines of “You bring in the gas, I bring out the nukes” between the NATO/Warsaw Pact forces?

 

[Farmer12]

At sometime the Chemical Weapons would come into use, but it would probably cause an immediate reply in the form of nukes. i believe that the British had made comments to that effect or at least I have read comments to that effect. So it might be advantagous to wait a while before using the chemical weapons. Bioweapons would be much less likely at least on the frontline units. It takes time for the bioweapons to take effect on on troops but using Bioweapons on the civilian population could be possible. But once the Leadership of NATO figured out what had happened the nukes would fly.

 

[sloreck]

It was policy that any WMD use=any WMD use. You did not have to respond in kind, you use gas we feel free to use nukes. Also the reality is that the most effective use of chemicals would be in a first strike, persistent agents against supply depots, rail centers etc. Using chemicals on the front lines against well trained and equipped troops makes as much trouble for your folks who have to fight in that environment - and actually the Soviet/WP chem gear of the 1980s was not as good as the NATO gear, so you actually handicap yourself using on the front lines.

 

[Farmer12]

The use of chemicals would end up in reply with nukes. So it depends on whether the Soviet Union wants to go nuclear quickly or delay it. It all depends on the goals of the Soviet Union but if Europe is a nuclear wasteland you don't get much profit out of it. Especially if your trying to prop up a faltering economy.

 

[sloreck]

IMHO there are two plausible situations where the Soviets might use nukes. One is if they are losing and feel that the physical security of the USSR is at stake. Even a loss that causes some falling away in the WP might not trigger this. The other is where they feel a demonstration with a nuke or two in the right place will cause NATO to throw in the sponge. A decapitation strike that would prevent a significant US/NATO nuclear response is not in the cards in 1984, and even if the technical means were potentially there it stakes everything on one roll of the dice with too great a chance for failure and catastrophe. The Soviet military was under no illusions about the reality that a strategic nuclear exchange would be mutual suicide for NATO and the USSR, and the theorists who felt that tactical nukes would not escalate were fringe in the USSR as they were in the USA.

 

[Farmer12]

slorek-In general i agree with your assessment, there is one other option is a kind of act of desperation. The limited use to gain a tactical advantage on the battlefield that could provide strategic benefits such as a breakthrough. Working on the theory that the other side would not respond in a massive way. But anyway you look at it the use of nuke would be a slippery slope and anyone thinking limited nuclear war would probably be wrong. Its not that a limited nuclear war was not possible its just improbable.

 

[MountainPuncher]

I imagine Yugoslavia and Austria are going to be dragged into the upcoming war due to their strategic locations.

 

[Farmer12]

MountainPuncher- Well Austria is very much on the Soviet radar. Yugoslavia is a bit of a complicated, Tito's gone and they rotate leadership around right now the head of the government is a Croatian. Also the Yugoslavia has good relations with the United States since we help with large loans to help prop up Yugoslavia. But a large portion of the Serbian community view the Soviet Union as their friend and protector. If the Warsaw Pact could get Yugoslavia as an ally all well and good. it would allow for the invasion of Italy. But to invade would only lengthen the battle lines with little profit. The Soviet Union has a lot of enemies and one less drain on resources would be a good thing.

As for the West a neutral Yugoslavia would be ideal but as an ally they could be a drain on NATO's resources. Although the Italian army could move through Yugoslavia and be on the Southern flank of the Soviet forces in Austria and on the border of Hungary. But it is hard to say how much of an advantage that would be.

I believe Yugoslavia's actions will be based on what the local regions believe is in their best interest.

 

[Farmer12]

11am New Delhi
For Indira Ghandi, the assassination of the United States Secretary of Agriculture and the ambassador to West Germany had caught her attention. Seeming lack of reaction from the Soviet Union to the attack had made her concern grow. This broke the lethargic state she had been in. Suddenly she realized she had to do something to prevent to bring the end to the crisis. Then she decided to act, normally she would have taken the time to organized a response. But now there was no time to delay. She had to act after a few words with some of her principal advisors and it was agreed that she should go before the world press and offer to mediate between the United States and the Soviet Union.

She ordered that messages be sent immediately to both the Soviet Union and the United States along with the order to the Washington Embassy to make every effort to speak to Secretary of State Schultz even if it had to get him out of bed. She hoped to have an answer from the Soviet Union today and the United States tomorrow. But getting the American Secretary of State out of bed would let him know that India was serious about its offer.

An hour later she was in front a group of members of the world press. She informed them that India was offering to mediate between the United States and the Soviet Union. She stated it was time to face that fact that if something was not done World War Three would happen. She stated that the rest of the world had to stand firm against the madness that had possessed the two great alliances, NATO and the WARSAW pact. She called out for the nonaligned nations of the world to support her in this effort to prevent the destruction of the whole world.

6pm 50 nautical miles to the North of Baku Island
Portsmouth put its radio antennas up to receive the message of COMSUBPAC. Within in few minutes the message arrived and minutes later the Portsmouth was headed south and the leadership of the Portsmouth was putting its shopping list together. The orders had been clear have the list ready by midnight so the Australians would have enough time to gather the supplies at the same time Pearl would fly in any spare parts that were needed.

When the transmission of the list of supplies was made, the radio surveillance gear based on Bougainville and the Shortland Island immediately picked up the message and with a few minutes they had the position of the Portsmouth. But within five minutes the message was completed and the Portsmouth dived deep and picking up speed a she headed south.

930PM Washington DC
The phone rang and Secretary Schultz who had been considering going to bed answered the phone and on the phone was official from the State Department. Schultz was momentarily wondered what had gone wrong now. But announcement that the India Ambassador on the phone lifted the cloud.

The Ambassador announced that Indira Ghandi was offering to mediate the crisis. Earlier in the day it looked like they would be at war in days. But now with Indira Ghandi’s deciding to intervention was the kind of good news they needed. India was a good friend to the Soviet Union and with improving relations with the United States she could be counted on to be a fair broker of any deal with the Soviet Union.

As soon as the call was over Secretary Shultz called the Reagan and he informed the President that Indira Ghandi wanted to mediate the crisis. He suggested an early morning meeting to go over her offer before accepting. Reagan considered the suggestion then he replied, **No I will call Indira Ghandi myself and right now I will let her knew that we accept. If we move quick enough we can beat Moscow to the punch by accepting first. The press will be choking on the fact that we accepted Indira Ghandi’s offer before the Soviet Union.

12PM NOON New Delhi/ 1030 pm Washington DC Ronald Reagans called arrived just as Indira Ghandi was starting to eat lunch. She had been totally caught off guard. The different in times had made her believe that the Soviet Union would be the first to respond. Reagan asked just one question, **No preconditions? ** Indira Ghandi replied **No preconditions** Reagan just told her, **Then tell us when and where and we will be there. **Indira Ghandi immediately told her press secretary to inform the press that the United States had unconditionally accepted India’s offer to mediately the current crisis. Reagan went to bed feeling good real good. He had beat the Soviet Union to the punch. Then without hesitation he went to sleep.

10am Moscow The Politburo was first briefed on the attempted attack on the Secretary of Defense and the military commander of NATO. The fact that the American secretary of Agriculture and the American Ambassador to West Germany were the ones actually killed did say something about the competency of the assassins. The word that the Soviet Union was being accused of being behind the attack was reported and the KGB suggested that they deny any involvement but the Chebrikov did admit that the denial would probably not be believed by many in the west. Gromyko supported the idea of denying any involvement, even if some in the west did not believe the Soviet Union denial it would be accepted by many. In the Politburo was uncertain as to how to respond but in the end, they decided that if the situation required it they could deny any involvement at a later date.


Next item on the agenda, a short briefing on what the Commanding General of High Command of Western Direction had said. Field Marshall Ogarkov’s briefing was not as detail and it did mention the schedule of arriving force. He also emphasized the fact that roughly eighty percent of the forces allocated to what the American called the Central Front were in position and ready to attack.

Then Ogarkov went straight to the point of his briefing, **We the officers of the General Staff feel that with the units currently in place we could launch a successful attack at this time. At this time, we are at our most powerful, as compared to the NATO forces. But if we wait for the month or more time to bring the newly mobilized units up to fighting capacity the American will have moved in at least three more division and possible four mechanized or Armored divisions from their National Guard as well as their elite airborne and Air mobile divisions and at least one of their heavy infantry divisions. **

**In the last week two division the 50th armored and their 9th infantry divisions have begun the process of being moved to Europe, not to mention a variety of other brigade sized units. Two more American National Guard divisions the 49th Armored and the 40th Mechanized Division are preparing to move to Europe. But we feel that the longer we wait the more troops will arrive and lesson our chances of success. That is until those additional divisions and brigades arrive and then we could again be able to attack with an excellent expectation of victory. Not only that, but by that time all of the listed divisions could be in Europe along with even more of their independent brigades. While the earliest units shipped across the Atlantic would have time to train and the British Army was also organizing a new Paratroop division to fight in Europe. As well as four new tank battalions and converting some of their territorial infantry battalions to mechanized units. They also have a large number of regular units and territorial units that also could be sent to Europe. The French have not organized any new units or moving any of their reserve units to Germany but sooner or later they will move those units. **


Then Ogarkov, commented, **If we wait we will have hundred plus divisions as well as some of the new category IV still in training that can be moved to the front as soon as possible. But success would come at a much greater cost. Now is the time to strike when our best units are ready and the Americans and their allies are still putting their second line units together. Also, we have also been receiving some reports about the effect of the mobilization on the economy of the Soviet Union and we admit that the Economists are right. The economy is slowing down under the pressure of the mobilization. This means we must strike and soon. The longer we delay the greater the price to Mother Russian and her people. **



The room that the Politburo was meeting in was deathly quiet, there were no growls of approval just silence. Romanov had known what was going to be proposed by the Army General Staff. But he was going to waiting to see what the response would be. The soft liners were quiet and some looked like they had shocked expressions on their faces. Gorbachev was not saying anything either for the moment. He would keep quiet for a while longer. He wanted to see what Romanov and Griskin said. What Chernenko said, he was less concerned about. Especially since he planned on replacing him at some time in the future.

Chernenko, finally spoke, ** We should consider what Field Marshall Ogarkov has said. I am not certain that it necessary to strike so soon but we should at least discuss the matter. ** The truth was that he was in serious trouble. The decision to force the West to back down on its plans to rebuild its nuclear defenses in Europe was not turning out as he had planned. If he backed down now he would be in trouble. But the briefing that he had just received had emphasized that waiting would be the best approach.

It was obvious that Ogarkov and the commander of the High Command of Western Strategic direction were not in agreement. Chernenko decided to lean toward delaying until mid-august. He knew Romanov, GrisHin and Gorbachev where after his job. If he failed the achieve his goals during this crisis that could be the end of his being the Secretary General. But is he had decided to go along with Ogarkov then Gorbachev would be in opposition. But it would put Romanov and GrisHin on his side for now. But if Gorbachev was taken out of the equation Romanov would be the front runner. That could leave Chernenko vulnerable. The question was who would move against him first. That would leave Grishin as Romanov’s only competition. Grishin was the weakest of the three and it was likely that Romanov could by him off with some position of power. So for now he would support an assault in November. That would keep Gorbachev and Romanov fighting with each other and not looking to replace him. Divide and stay in power was Chernenko’s motto.


He was still worried about Romanov, he had the support of the military and the possibly that of the KGB to. He was in theory the most dangerous. He could in theory use the military and security forces to topple Chernenko. But Ogarkov who was Romanov’s primary supporter was more of a reformer than a power hungry general. He just wanted more money for the military. To gain Ogarkov’s support Romanov was making promises to Ogarkov to give him the money. As for actually engaging in a coup probably not. But a play for power inside the Politburo was very possible. But he could not trust Gorbachev too much, since he was also scheming for the position of General Secretary with Gromyko probably supporting him. Not to mention the fact that the soft liners were gathering around him. But they would not be too interested in moving before he was dead.

Chernenko, suddenly realized that the men who wanted his job were not in a position to seriously challenge him for now. But he would take the position that starting a war right now was not something he could support. But he could be ambiguous enough so the that how decision could be delayed for a few days. Time was what he was buying so that he could see what way the winds were blowing.

It was then at a messenger came in and he handed Gromyko, as he read the note he suppressed the desire to cheer. Indira Ghandi had offered to mediate the crisis between the United States and the Soviet Union. But she had stated that there would be no preconditions for either side and she would be an honest broker. He knew that Chernenko would not be willing to accept her offer as long as she said no preconditions and being an honest broker. That would mean accepting the fact that he had failed to achieved his goals. That would leave him open to attack. Suddenly he realized that the whole room was watching him.

Gromyko stood up and he told the room, ** Indira Ghandi has offered to hold a conference with no preconditions and serve as an honest broker mediate the dispute. We need to consider the offer, Indira Ghandi, will have a lot of support from the Nonaligned nations. To just refuse the offer wouls not be the best approach. ** The announcement brought smiles to some of the members of the Politburo, a face-saving way out of the crisis had just been handed to them.

Chernenko considered what Gromyko had told him and the reaction from the other members of the Politburo. Then he replied, **We cannot allow the West and especially Ronald Reagan to get away with his assassination of our loyal ally Erich Honencker. We need the West to understand that we cannot pull back on our demands. ** Griskin was the first out of the gate, he immediately told the rest of the Politburo. ** We must not back down we must stand firm or we will look weak to our people. We must tell Indira Ghandi that we will not backdown from our demands. Romanov echoed the comments of Griskin reaffirming the Chernenko’s comments.

Gorbachev made a decision, he could see that the soft liners were happy with the offer and Chernenko refusal to drop his demands had not make them happy. He could see that the reactions to both Griskin and Romanov speeches at least with the soft liners had not gone down well. He decided to make his move, **I feel that we must at least consider this offer from the India. They are one of our best friends in the nonaligned nations. What they say will sway many of those nations either toward us or against us. If we do not we will regret it. **


Chernenko was totally caught off guard, he had not expected Gorbachev to openly disagree with him so soon. Now the Politburo was in turmoil the soft liners were agreeing that they need to consider Indira Ghandi’s offer and the hard liners were adamantly opposed and the few in the middle were considering their options. The debate would go on for another hour before an exhausted Chernenko announce that we will not be able to make a decision on either of the two options before us. To accept India’s offer to mediate or not. With that the Politburo ended it debate and Chernenko announced that the discussion would continue on Friday. One thing was certain the idea of launching an immediate attack on NATO had be dropped by the Politburo. Now it was to negotiate or not.

 

[michaelbaneblade]

OMG Shits about to get Real, REAL FAST LIKE.!!!!!!
Farmer12 Once again you have me on tenderhooks, good Sir.

 

[sloreck]

The problem is all the Soviets can do is string things out without looking too ridiculous at the meetings. They have decided they are going to go to war, just not exactly what day. Perhaps, if the Americans were to admit that yes, it was the CIA that did in Honecker, we'll remove our troops from West Germany, and of course turn the killers over to you that might prevent the war. Since that set of events is not going to happen, and it is clear the Soviets are not going to reduce their demands one bit this mediation won't go anywhere. Both sides have to present a reasonable face, as if one side is seen as particularly unreasonable when the fighting starts it will be blamed on them. I do wonder if the Soviets really care about that, as once the fighting starts the unaligned really don't have all that much say.

 

[Farmer12]

michaelbaneblade- Well with out being to informative mid to late August. We have some more maneuvering to do. I still have some fun in mind.

slorek- The Soviets will act like the Soviets and the reason for what happens will have a reason whether in the minds of most people is good well that is up to the reader.

 

[sloreck]

IMHO the generals who want to go now are probably correct. The longer they wait, the better the NATO situation gets, more US troops trained and ready in Europe and supplies arriving safely with no second Battle of the Atlantic going on yet. Everybody always "plans" for a quick war, but rarely get it. What is happening in the USSR is that the economy is slowing down due to the numbers being mobilized and the military priorities for rail transport etc dragging on an already inefficient system. OTOH, the US and NATO economies are accelerating for military support, more shifts at certain factories etc and have a great deal more expanding they can do especially once some civilian sectors are curtailed. While the Soviets are getting a surge in some numbers, like tanks, they are old equipment and getting them going means cannibalizing some to get needed spare parts, and the spare part supply will get worse not better as parts for T-34s and even some newer tanks are not made anymore, and changing production lines to do so will be a real effort for Soviet industry as they work to make spares for current models.

The Soviets will have a lot of numbers early on, but their attrition will be ferocious and their situation, IMHO, quite brittle. Given issues with food production in the USSR, if they win they are going to have to force the USA/Canada/Australia to provide them with massive amounts of food. Were they to steal all the food from any territory they occupy, letting the locals starve, and somehow put the whole WP on rations lower than before that won't make up the deficit. OTL 1984 was a peak year for Soviet wheat imports 28 MILLION metric tons of wheat.(1) It is inevitable that the harvest will be poorer OTL due to manpower shortages and transportation issues and so forth. On top of that, military needs for food for rations will increase.
At his point in time, while all of this wheat may have been ordered, certainly much of it is not yet delivered...

(1) the population of the USSR was approximately 280 million in 1984. This means approximately 100 kilos of wheat imported per person, this is pretty impressive even if we accept that some of the wheat goes to animal feed rather than bread...

 

[Farmer12]

sloreck- Sorry about the slow reply just got back from work. Your right that it would probably be better for the Soviet Union to attack right now. But the Politburo is made up of a bunch of octogenarians, who are still trying to pressure the West into submission by keeping pressure on the Western Powers. War is risky so why not wait until all the troops are mobilized and the tanks are all lined up. With Indira Ghandi offering to hold a conference to bring the crisis to an end. The cost of the crisis if growing and does the Soviet Union have the money on hand to pay for the crisis.

The crisis in food has not truly hit but when it does the Soviet Union will be rocked and the Politburo to one degree or another understands this. But time will tell whether patience and caution wins or would an immediate attack do what it promises to do.

 

[Farmer12]

4pm Moscow
When Gromyko left the meeting, he was handed another message, this one told him that Ronald Reagan had accepted the India offer to mediate the agreement. Not only that but the Indian ambassador wanted to speak to him about the offer to mediate the agreement. Gromyko was not looking forward to talking him. But in the end Gromyko decided that he needed to talk to the Indian ambassador asking him for patience. That India needed to be patient with the Politburo. That it might take time to get the Politburo to come around to the idea of a peace conference.

The Indian ambassador stated that India wanted the conference to happen. Not only that but India could rely on the support of the nonaligned nations who wanted the crisis to end. Now that the Americans were onboard the ball was in the hands of the Soviet Union. He went on to state that the nonaligned nations were fully capable of and were willing to condemn whichever side blocked the path to peace. Up to and including nonbinding resolutions in the UN General Assembly. Which he admitted had no real power but it definitely leaves, the side that refused to negotiate in a bind with the rest of the world.


Gromyko was not happy about being threatened by the Indian ambassador but at the same time they wanted what he wanted and that could be used. Chernenko would put up a fight of that there would be no doubt. But over the period of a week or so of discussions in the Politburo a decision to go to the summit could be agreed to. Gromyko decided to call Chernenko first to let him know what the Indian ambassador had said. Then he would talk to Gorbachev and let him know what the Indian ambassador had said. Then they could arrange meeting with the people most likely to support attending the conference to form a solid front.

When the daily briefing that Romanov and Ogarkov held, questions were asked about India’s offer to mediate and they took the opportunity to make it clear that the offer was while under consideration that many in the Politburo were opposed to accepting the offer. Other comments implied that the Soviet Union had certain demands that needed to be accepted before any negotiation could happen. With that less than enthusiastic reaction and what many in the press rebuff of Indira Ghandi’s offer to mediate between the two power blocks. Made many commented on the intransigence of the Soviet Union. Ronald Reagan who would normally have been in for his share of abuse was actually praised for his willingness to negotiate.

3pm Africa The courier from the Cape Verde Islands had arrived with the message from the operative at Praia. The news that a soviet ship possibly military had arrived in the Cape Verde Islands was rapidly reported to the headquarters in Paris and then to the navy. Included in the message was a photo of the ship. It did not take the SDGE long to realize this had to be one of two ships that had been headed south from Murmansk and its location made them feel that this ship could be supply ship that would support Soviet Naval operations in the South Atlantic. The reaction was swift a French recon plane was dispatched south with the mission of looking over that ship and making sure that it was one of those ship. It was now apparent that the South Atlantic was going to be hotter than anyone had suspected and now the question was where was that second ship.

The second Soviet ship arrived in Lobito Angola and as it arrived a nuclear submarine was following it in. The two captains had agreed that resupplying the sub in open sea would be too difficult so the mission was carried out in port of Lobito. The local UNITA operatives rapidly radioed the information to their superiors who informed South African intelligence. South African intelligence had mixed feeling toward the situation. On one hand it was argued that going straight to the CIA would gain them favor. Another group who were of the opinion that no matter what they did the American would still fuck them over so why let them know what was going on. Still others considered going through the American State Department. But for now, the Americans would not be told what was happening in Lobito.

2pm Brussel NATO HQ
General Rogers was back from Bonne and he had not let the failed assassination slow him down. The offer by Indira Ghandi to mediate the crisis was welcome but he kept on with his planning and meetings. He read a report that did please him greatly. The short fall in NATO munition supplies was not going to be as bad as he had thought. He and his officers here in Brussel had not realized just how much ammunition was being produced in Europe and being sold both Iran and Iraq to fight their war. Europe was producing rifle ammunition for Iran as well as 155mm artillery round as well as 105mm artillery and tank munitions.

There had been a quiet decision to freeze the shipment of the ammunition, military equipment and supplies. But no one at NATO’s headquarters had actually realized the quantities of ammunition that had as of yet not been shipped or the actual levels of production of ammunition. To admit that would be embarrassing to several European governments. But with some diligent research and more than a little arm twisting the amount of ammunition was totaled and it was discovered that the French were selling their GCT 155mm self-propelled gun to Iraqis, There were reports that a shipment of the guns was sitting in a port in southern France. Apparently, the shipment was almost ready to go when the crisis broke out. About twenty-four of the guns were sitting in some warehouses in the Port of Marseille. At the same time more were being built all the time. Also, HOT anti-tank missile where also sitting in warehouse in various French ports.

The quantities of ammunition that was sitting in various warehouse in various port cities was impressive. As for current production of ammunition was much higher than anyone had realized in fact in some companies had no need to ramp up production. A lot of overtime and the people at the factories were making out like bandits. They had maybe another weeks’ worth of on hand and if the levels of production could have increased then NATO could feel better about fighting the possible war.

Then the he was informed that the movement of the 18th Airborne, with the 82nd Airborne being the first unit to be sent to Denmark. He had been tired of making excuses for the nonappearance of American troops in Denmark. He had word sent to the Danish government about the good news.

Then a delegation from France arrived a mixture of civilian representative from Ministries of Defense and Foreign Affairs as well as officers from the various services. After the usual pleasantries they got down to work. The first matter to be talked about was Denmark. The French made it clear that the Danes felt they were not being well treated by the Americans.


General Rogers nodded his head and he replied that the first elements of the 18th airborne corp would soon be on their way to Denmark. That the 82nd Airborne would be the first division to be sent. That bit of news was accepted, then the French officials commented that the 9th light Armored division and as well as the Foreign Legion unit from the Rapid Action Force were already on the way to Denmark. They also confirmed that the 6th Marine division would be going to Norway. Finally, they mention that it might be possible to send reserve units to West Germany possibly to be used to fortify key choke points along the routes of advance. Rogers were impressed by the willingness of the French to support NATO. He had a feeling that things were looking up just a bit and considering the news of the all-out mobilization of the Soviet Military had pulled him down. Then the question of Balkans came up and General Rogers downplayed what he was doing in the Balkans. But he did make it clear that if France wanted to move some troops to reinforce either Turkey or Greece that decision would be welcome. He commented that the 27th Alpine division would be an excellent fit given the mountainous condition of the Balkans. Next were some questions about the quantities of ammunition, weapons and other assorted equipment that was sitting at various warehouses and other storage sites. The French were caught off guard by the question and the response was that they would look into the matter.


4pm Paris France
It had been a very busy day for President Mitterrand, the announcement that Indira Ghandi had offered to mediate the election had been announce. Not all that long after President Reagan had agreed to go to the negotiations. Mitterrand had been quick to congratulate and agree with Reagan decision to accept Indira Gandhi’s offer to mediate.


He had just been briefed by phone by the head of the group that had met with General Rogers. The meeting all things considered had been a success. But there had been a lot of questions about arms shipments to Iraq. The fact that the American had found out about the shipment was somewhat disturbing. There had been a leak somewhere but who? One thing was certain it was not some Soviet Agent or the information would have been leaked to the press. No, it was a loyal officer who was also possibly an ardent anti-communist. The Directorate of Internal Territorial Security would have to investigate but the odds were slim that they would find out who it was.

After that the briefing on the arrival of what looked like a supply ship in the Cape Verde Islands had been reported but where the second ship was as of yet unknown. He ordered that a reconnaissance plane be sent to take a look.

But Mitterrand did have a couple of problems to deal with. The arms shipments that were supposed to go to Iraq had not happened the company that was supposed to have shipped the equipment backed out of the contract. It had decided to send a ship into Mediterranean sea with World War III looking more and more likely. Finding a replacement shipping company with the combination of an ability to do the job, a basic lack of ethics, willingness to break international law as well as being able to keep their mouths shut. That kind of company was a little hard to find. That had forced the French to keep all the shipments inside France. On the plus side the supplies would come in handy of a war broke out.


Next was more of a point of pride, the British had put an airborne division together from various regular army and Territorial Army units and Canadian paratroops. They were current forming four battalions of armor and three battalion of mechanized infantry were being organized. It also sounded like the British might decide to put various Regular Army units and Territorial units together in one or two infantry divisions. Add on that Belgium and the Netherlands were each putting an infantry division into the field. It made France look bad so something had to be done.

Mitterrand pointed out to the assembled Politician, Bureaucrats and officers from the military that it was making France look bad and he was not going to have France look bad. He wanted at least three new divisions made up from the reserves. If the Army could form a fourth division that would be even better. Everyone in the room knew that Mitterrand was completely serious and no one argued back. The Minister of National Defense replied, **That he and the head of the Army would immediately go to work carrying out the President Mitterrand orders. **

 

[Farmer12]

8am Quebec
Train loads of equipment were beginning to arrive at the port, the 1st brigade was now on the move the port of Quebec. Four days were being allocated to the loading of the brigade 10am Washington DC

Secretary of the Navy Lehman brought up the subject of the nuclear cruiser squadron. He informed the president. That the squadron would run short of supplies in the next two weeks. Lehman was diplomatic enough to avoid mentioning that the reason that it was happening was due to a decision made by the President. Secretary Shultz commented that New Zealand was the closest location for the squadron to resupply but it would be best to wait until after the election was over. Reagan nodded his head commenting that the ships would have to wait until after the election. The Secretary of State brought a new bit of information. That members of the Soviet Politburo were moving relative to safe locations so that if world war three happened then they would at least be safe. It did not take President Reagan to understand. He sat back in his chair, it was obvious to him that war was even closer than he had realized.

2 pm Pentagon
The Secretary of the Navy Lehman fresh from his meeting with the president. Had another meeting to attend. He listened to the Royal Navy officers about the plan they had proposed. While he was not entirely sure the idea would work, he did like the imaginative thinking that came up with what he called a bold idea. He agreed to bring the plan to the attention of Cap Weinberger. With that the Royal Navy planners were one step closer to having the plan carried out.

Colon Panama
The convoy carrying the equipment of the 7th sailed through the harbor and it headed north to Honduras. But the reporters in Colon would report what they had seen and it would soon hit the news. Now a new question was where was it headed. At the same time the first transports carrying the troops of the 7th ID to Honduras. In a few hours once the planes began to arrive in Honduras the reporters in Honduras would report the 7th Infantry division was headed to Honduras with the mission to invade Nicaragua. It would not take anyone long to realize that the convoy should be La Ceiba in not more than two days three at most.

13/12 Jul 4am Wellington A ringing phone let the person on duty know that a coded dispatch was on the way to New Zealand. The embassy was informed that someone had to be at the front door of the cable company to pick it up and to have it deciphered immediately.

9 am New Zealand
The announcement that Indira Ghandi had offered to mediate that crisis between NATO and the WARSAW PACT. Had been view as a positive and Reagans positive response had been reported which brought his approval ratings and with the continued Soviet intransigence made him look even better.

9AM Canberra A list of food supplies needed for the Portsmouth had arrived as well as a message from Pearl telling them that the parts for the submarine that had been requested were being pulled and a C-130 would deliver the spare parts directly to Townsville. A ship from HMAS base Cairns had left for the rendezvous point. At the same time the food for the crew of the Portsmouth was being gathered.

NOON 300 nautical miles to the north and west of New Zealand
Admiral Johnston in charge of Task Force 25.5 was informed that resupply would have to wait until after the upcoming election in New Zealand was over. The United States did not want to add to the problems of Prime Minister Muldoons in the current election. The admiral shrugged his shoulders wondering if that prize moron Lang would be elected. The man had no sense of reality as long as there were two power blocks both nuclear armed the chances of keeping the South Pacific free of nuclear weapons did not even have a snowballs chance in hell of success.


The Frunze which had been taking a long loop around the east side of New Zealand received a message from Moscow that a squadron of nuclear powered and armed cruisers were looking for the Frunze. Intelligence reported that the ships were some where in the South Pacific. The Frunze had left Leningrad with enough food to get her to Vladivostok plus a month’s extra supply of food. What had been a good plan to rapidly move the Frunze to Vladivostok was beginning to show the weak spot of the plan but no one had expected a crisis like this to happen.

But the Frunze needed to be resupplied and now he had arranged a rendezvous. Moscow was aware of the problem and they had a plan. He was to rendezvous in the open sea and he where the food transferred by ships boats. It was not an optimum solution but it was a solution.

9am Pusan South Korea
The convoy carrying the equipment for the 5 MAB and the divisional elements of the 1st Mardiv had arrived. At the same time the first plane loads of marines from the United States arrived to marry up with their equipment. In North Korea the Kim il Sung announced that Korea would be the graveyard of the United States Marine Corp.

10 AM New Delhi
Indira Ghandi had hope that the hard liners in the Politburo would be reasonable. It was now quite clear that the hardliners would not be reasonable. Now it was her turn and she was gathering ambassadors from the various nonaligned nations. Her plan was to put diplomatic pressure on the Soviet Union, the pressure would not really start until next week. She was trying to get the various nonaligned nations to tell the Soviet Ambassadors for their respective countries that they were not happy about the Soviet Union’s refusal to accept India offer to hold a conference with no preconditions.

At the same time the Indian Ambassador to the UN would be telling the world that he was going for a nonbinding resolution in the General Assembly and one for the Security Council. Now while she admitted that the resolution would be vetoed by the Soviet Union in the Security Council it would further show their intransigence. While at the same time the General Assembly would have a string of speeches and vote supporting the Indian Talks.

10AM Moscow Gromyko and Gorbachev had a meeting with some of the soft liner of the Politburo, they were furious about Romanov and Ogarkov’s comments. The worlds reaction was quite evident but no one had for one moment thought that the hard liners would not resist accepting. They had not expected Romanov and Ogarkov to comment so brutally on India’s proposals.

Gorbachev had to admit that he had been caught by surprise by the comments but he realized that he should have expected something like this. The other soft-liners admitted that they should have thought about it to. But then the discussion turned to the Friday meeting where the first real fight over whether to accept Ghandi’s offer to mediate the dispute between the two power blocks. Gromyko commented that tomorrow would be the first day and unless we get really lucky the hardliners would hold firm. He commented that only after the displeasure of the non-aligned nations was fully seen and understood. Gromyko told the men at the table, **We need to be prepared to spending the next few weeks getting the hard liners to listen. **

 

[ferdi254]

Hi,

this is my first contribution to this forum after a long time lurking so please be patient as it will be several and long posts. Oh and English is not my mother language. Farmer, your timeline is one of those that I follow for quite some time now and I must say, great work, lots of details and storytelling and interesting characters. There are some minor mistakes here like that Europe in 1984 was surely not worrying about food (it was the time of buttermountains and milklakes) which I will come back later two, the German capital was Bonn and most importantly no FRG government would have been allowed to deploy the Bundeswehr to do policing within Germany. But apart from that great work. But now I wonder how it will continue and I wanted to add a couple of remarks on the situation of both sides here.

 

[ferdi254]

Summary of the next posts

Attacking the more or less fully mobilized and battle ready NATO will be seen by historians (assuming it stais conventional) as one of the biggest blunders in history in line with Hitler declaring war on the USA. The only excuse they have is that they really believed they could pull it off.

The WP forces will be ripped apart and if any come more than 50 km into NATO territory then only due to extreme luck or utter stupidity of local NATO forces. The rest will be slaughtered. Reasons see following posts

 

[ferdi254]

Order of battle, southern front:

Many people seriously underestimate the strength of the Turkish and the Greek armies. You do have the WP with the Bulgarian army and some division of red army troops pitted against the Turkish army (1 Mio.) and the greek army (250 k) plus one US division. Even taking into account that Turkey might need to move 250k over to the Caucasus, the WP troops are outnumbered 3:1 by better equipped and trained troops who also enjoy air superiority. If NATO goes on the offensive the WP will have to swiftly move troops down there because if Sofia falls, Romania is not unlikely to go neutral or even change sides.



Order of battle southwestern front:

The Hungarian army plus the allocated red army units would outnumber Austria 3:1 but the Austrian army was trained and equipped to Bundeswehr standards and would certainly put up a stiff fight. And an attack into Austrian would have two dire consequences for the WP.

1. It would make every neutral nation in Europe and even around the globe pretty wary about the USSR and their plans after the war and would make most of them go on a path to do everything short of openly fighting to help the NATO
   
   
2. Italy is a very powerful NATO member whose troops could hardly do anything in a war (and maybe even would not be sad about it) because of the geography. If you make Austria a cobelligerent of the NATO then the whole Italian Air Force becomes a valuable asset to NATO as well as at least 250 k soldiers that Italy could then move into the fight in Austria. And they have a good reason to fight to keep WP troops off of their border. Suddenly the WP forces barely enjoy equality in numbers of troops but are behind in equipment and training.
   

So now you have one front with the WP losing and the other with the WP barely being able to hold the ground. But those two don´t matter as long as the fight on the German border can be won by the WP.

 

[ferdi254]

Order of battle German front:

I will go right at it. The middle and late 80´s there still was (especially in NATO General circles and echoed by many conservative groups) the cry of the slawic hordes from the east when it came to the WP (one should better look up how this meme originated and was used) and the strength compared to NATO. But even in the famous mad dash from the barracks scenario it would be WP with red army west 0.4, NVA 0.2 and 0.2 CSSR (Poland too far away) against BW 0.4 BAOR 0.2 Benelux armies 0.2 and USA 0.3 so 0.8 WP against 1.1 NATO troops (all figures in Mio. soldiers). With the NATO already having the newest generation of MBT´s in their divisions which, as we know now. would have wreaked havoc on WP tank divisions.

Here you have both sides fully mobilized. Which would with forces outside the USSR mean 0.3 Polish soldiers (the rest dearly needed to control Poland and the GDR), no NVA soldiers, 0.4 red army west and 0.4 CSSR so barely enough to have parity with the BW (1.1 fully mobilized). The BW defending, having superior equipment and air superiority.

Now you add in the western Russian military districts. Even more or less emptying them you get something like 1.5 additional troops. Against those the NATO will pitch 0.1 Danish (you want to invade DK so they count) 0.4 Benelux, 0.2 French and 0.2 British) so 0.9 NATO, but most of them in quality above Cat A units of the WP and all above CAT B while a large part of the red army will be Cat B and Cat C.

OK, so the red army adds the reserve divisions with 1.5. Cat C and Cat D, equipped with T54 and T34 certainly not the best cadre of officers and noncoms wholly inadequate AA and artillery. What has the NATO against those: All of the US and Canadian army let´s say 0.8 mostly professionals very well equipped and trained.

Added together 2.8 Mio NATO against 4.1 WP (in case you think my estimate for WP is too low, you have 0.8 Mio troops at the other fronts 0.3 Polish doing safeguarding 0.4 NVA out of the picture and 0.5 red army troops in Afghanistan and the Caucasus). And the USSR might want to have at least a couple at the Chinese border and some for internal policing. Or some against Norway. Hardly a winning proposal giving that NATO is defending, enjoys air superiority and has much better trained and equipped troops. Some other important advantages to follow.

And while the WP is at the end of its tether the NATO still has 0.4 Spanish and Portugese troops, 0.25 Italian 0.3 French and all militia units it can bring in from the USA. Oh, plus Norway and Ireland.