This is both a WI and a proposal for anyone who wants to spice up their 16th century TL with events in Eastern Europe.
It might not be all that well known, but the Union of Lublin, more commonly known as the event during which Poland and Lithuania were "united" into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, was not only a very close call and only achieved after years of intense negotiations, but also was on a knife's edge away from turning into a full-scale war between the Poles and the Lithuanians, even though the latter was also involved in the Livonian War at the time.
This was because, in classic Polish-Lithuanian relationship action, both the Poles and the Lithuanians stubbornly refused to compromise for years - the Polish delegation wanted for nothing less than a full annexation of Lithuania, while the Lithuanians refused anything that wasn't just the status quo with the Poles helping Lithuania in the war. The negotiations had grown so tense that both sides started to prepare for an outright war and the Lithuanian delegation, led by Mikalojus Radvila, left negotiations entirely. In response, Sigismund Augustus simply cut off half of Lithuanian territory and gave it to Poland, which, depending on whether you listen to Polish or Lithuanian historians, was either a peaceful integration of territory or an occupation during which the estates of anyone resisting the Poles were seized. Though it's generally agreed that taking away half of the territory of the state you are trying to coerce into a union is generally considered to be bad negotiation manners, it managed to work out for the Poles - the Lithuanians sent a delegation led by Jonas Chodkevičius, a man more amiable to compromise who almost singlehandedly managed to salvage the relations between the two countries and lead to the confederation we know today.
So obviously, you can already see a number of ways this could go horribly wrong.
The Polish nobility, knowing that Lithuania is deep in an unwinnable war, resolve that just taking half of Lithuania isn't enough and push Sigismund Augustus to allow them to annex Lithuania completely, leading to a war;
The Lithuanians overreact to the news of Polish occupation of the Ukraine and break all ties with the "traitor Sigismund", again, leading to a war;
Or Jonas Chodkevičius is simply not present to salvage the situation. He was a military commander during the Livonian War and a member of Charles V's entourage in his wars earlier, and in either of those situations, he could have died in battle or gotten into an accident before the Lublin Sejm (he actually died during the Livonian War in OTL, albeit later, so there is precedent for his death in war). No Chodkevičius in Lublin - it's likely that the radical pro-independence faction led by the Radziwill family remains in control of the negotiations and likely drags Lithuania to ruin in the form of a two-front war.
So what would happen then?
Well, Lithuania will be no more. The Livonian War already cost Lithuania all of is resources and yet they were still constantly on the defensive. With a fresh, unbattered Poland intervening with plans to annex all of Lithuania, it would get partitioned between Poland and Russia without question.
And second thing is no Commonwealth. Yeah. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as we know it was a compromise between the Poles and the Lithuanians - Polish nobility had plans to directly integrate Lithuania into Poland and, if one were to believe the most radical of the Polish delegates in Lublin, rename it to "New Poland" and begin colonizing it. Well, "colonize" it - more start exploiting the vast territory of Lithuania for their agricultural magnate purposes.
Whether this Poland would be more or less stable than its federated counterpart is the big question. On one hand, Lithuanian particularism was a very heavy setback for the Commonwealth and, in my opinion, was one of the main reasons for the following slow collapse of the Commonwealth. On the other hand, the territory now integrated into a unitary kingdom of Poland would be very hostile and would take a very long time to successfully integrate.
So what do you think?
It might not be all that well known, but the Union of Lublin, more commonly known as the event during which Poland and Lithuania were "united" into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, was not only a very close call and only achieved after years of intense negotiations, but also was on a knife's edge away from turning into a full-scale war between the Poles and the Lithuanians, even though the latter was also involved in the Livonian War at the time.
This was because, in classic Polish-Lithuanian relationship action, both the Poles and the Lithuanians stubbornly refused to compromise for years - the Polish delegation wanted for nothing less than a full annexation of Lithuania, while the Lithuanians refused anything that wasn't just the status quo with the Poles helping Lithuania in the war. The negotiations had grown so tense that both sides started to prepare for an outright war and the Lithuanian delegation, led by Mikalojus Radvila, left negotiations entirely. In response, Sigismund Augustus simply cut off half of Lithuanian territory and gave it to Poland, which, depending on whether you listen to Polish or Lithuanian historians, was either a peaceful integration of territory or an occupation during which the estates of anyone resisting the Poles were seized. Though it's generally agreed that taking away half of the territory of the state you are trying to coerce into a union is generally considered to be bad negotiation manners, it managed to work out for the Poles - the Lithuanians sent a delegation led by Jonas Chodkevičius, a man more amiable to compromise who almost singlehandedly managed to salvage the relations between the two countries and lead to the confederation we know today.
So obviously, you can already see a number of ways this could go horribly wrong.
The Polish nobility, knowing that Lithuania is deep in an unwinnable war, resolve that just taking half of Lithuania isn't enough and push Sigismund Augustus to allow them to annex Lithuania completely, leading to a war;
The Lithuanians overreact to the news of Polish occupation of the Ukraine and break all ties with the "traitor Sigismund", again, leading to a war;
Or Jonas Chodkevičius is simply not present to salvage the situation. He was a military commander during the Livonian War and a member of Charles V's entourage in his wars earlier, and in either of those situations, he could have died in battle or gotten into an accident before the Lublin Sejm (he actually died during the Livonian War in OTL, albeit later, so there is precedent for his death in war). No Chodkevičius in Lublin - it's likely that the radical pro-independence faction led by the Radziwill family remains in control of the negotiations and likely drags Lithuania to ruin in the form of a two-front war.
So what would happen then?
Well, Lithuania will be no more. The Livonian War already cost Lithuania all of is resources and yet they were still constantly on the defensive. With a fresh, unbattered Poland intervening with plans to annex all of Lithuania, it would get partitioned between Poland and Russia without question.
And second thing is no Commonwealth. Yeah. The Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth as we know it was a compromise between the Poles and the Lithuanians - Polish nobility had plans to directly integrate Lithuania into Poland and, if one were to believe the most radical of the Polish delegates in Lublin, rename it to "New Poland" and begin colonizing it. Well, "colonize" it - more start exploiting the vast territory of Lithuania for their agricultural magnate purposes.
Whether this Poland would be more or less stable than its federated counterpart is the big question. On one hand, Lithuanian particularism was a very heavy setback for the Commonwealth and, in my opinion, was one of the main reasons for the following slow collapse of the Commonwealth. On the other hand, the territory now integrated into a unitary kingdom of Poland would be very hostile and would take a very long time to successfully integrate.
So what do you think?
