"Ephemeral States of the Russian Civil War"

[David T]

Question: Which, if any, of these states might have survived?

I have discussed the Gilan Soviet Republic here before: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/kuchak-khan-and-the-gilan-soviet-republic.339145/

I have also indicated why I don't think the Basmachis ever had much of a chance of success: https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ucceeds-in-central-asia.361483/#post-11079251

Of course, referring to the Free Territory as a "state" would have been considered a counterrevolutionary slander by Makhno...

As for the Far Eastern Republic, it was basically a fake. The Bolsheviks allowed the formation of a nominally non-Communist state (with moderate-socialist participation) as a buffer state to get the Japanese out. Once the Red Army entered Vladivostok, in the wake of the evacuating Japanese, the FER was abolished and incorporated into the RSFSR.

And there were some states which proved ephemeral enough, but are not on this map: Litbel, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Litbel

In general, these states just don't seem populous or powerful enough to hold out against whoever won the Russian Civil War, Red or White. Yet few people would have thought that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia could maintain their independence for two decades...

 

[Augenis]

Interesting that they mention the republic of Perloja, when it wasn't even the only pseudo-state in Lithuanian territory at the time. The Republic of Joniškėlis, a state organized by the Joniškėlis partisans, was a state which, at a time from 1918 to 1919, claimed much of Northern Lithuania and controlled at least some of it, even though they never actually organized a civilian government. But hey, if a bunch of Russian sailors declaring a port as theirs counts as a state...

Obviously, if the Germans win WW1, the Baltic Duchy will likely stay. Maybe if the Reds win the Finnish Civil War somehow, the Finnish Socialist Workers Republic could live longer before likely getting incorporated into the USSR. Others don't seem likely to live any longer than OTL.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

In the case of White victory, Russia is going to lose more territory than IOTL, most likely Transcaucasia would be lost.

 

[Whiteshore]

So, what of these "ephermal states" do you think have the best chance of, like the Baltic States, developing into independent nations post-Civil War?

 

[Catsmate]

Thanks for that. Fascinating possibilities.

 

[Ariosto]

Of those listed, the only one I can see as having any real possibilities is the Green Ukraine, and that is only if it is embraced by the Japanese militarily. That said, there are plenty of immediate problems in bringing that about, in that the Allies support for the White forces would have more or less strangled any such nation-state from coming about, and taking Kolchak out of the equation won't be enough. Ideally you'd need something like the Transcaucasian Federation, but one that is unified and has foreign support; I don't see any such possibilities here.​

 

[ETGalaxy]

I've always liked the idea of the FER surviving but I'm not sure how likely that is. Typically I make it survive by allying with some nation that sees the Bolsheviks as a threat. Maybe the FER allies with Japan? The implications of a democracy willingly allying with the Empire of Japan could be interesting. perhaps it leads the Japanese (and eventually the Co-Prosperity Sphere) down a more democratic path?

 

[BigBlueBox]

I've always liked the idea of the FER surviving but I'm not sure how likely that is. Typically I make it survive by allying with some nation that sees the Bolsheviks as a threat. Maybe the FER allies with Japan? The implications of a democracy willingly allying with the Empire of Japan could be interesting. perhaps it leads the Japanese (and eventually the Co-Prosperity Sphere) down a more democratic path?

There's a TL about that.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/八紘一宇-hakkō-ichiu.403839/

 

[Greg Grant]

I think the Caucasus is the prime candidate for survival, because it is hard to reach and there is a glorious mess south of it with competing interests. Siberia and etc. had no natural barriers to defend it and sooner or later the Red Army approach of sending enough motivated people forward will overwhelm. Makhno survived for as long as he did due to competing interests, now imagine folks doing that with a mountain range to prevent Red Army lads from holding down the land.

 

[DrakonFin]

Maybe if the Reds win the Finnish Civil War somehow, the Finnish Socialist Workers Republic could live longer before likely getting incorporated into the USSR.

The Reds winning in Finland is only really plausible with significantly more support from the Bolsheviks, and early in the civil war at that. A lot more Russian revolutionary troops in Finland means a huge leverage held by Lenin et al, and Finland getting incorporated in the *USSR in such a TL would happen sooner rather than later.

 

[herkles]

hmm, I wonder why Ukraine is not up there?

 

[Napoleon IV]

Realistically one way for these states to survive is if the Russian Civil War ends in the balkanization of Russia. That's really difficult to do, because whoever controls the Moscow-Petrograd area controls most of Russia's industry and rail lines, as well as a large chunk of its population. Whoever has this advantage is in a good position to overwhelm the other side and conquer the ephemeral states. The other option is for foreign powers to back one of these states and hold the Bolsheviks back. But as the West's OTL intervention in the Russian Civil War proved the political will to do this isn't there.

 

[Remitonov]

Realistically one way for these states to survive is if the Russian Civil War ends in the balkanization of Russia. That's really difficult to do, because whoever controls the Moscow-Petrograd area controls most of Russia's industry and rail lines, as well as a large chunk of its population. Whoever has this advantage is in a good position to overwhelm the other side and conquer the ephemeral states. The other option is for foreign powers to back one of these states and hold the Bolsheviks back. But as the West's OTL intervention in the Russian Civil War proved the political will to do this isn't there.

Would Warlord Era-style dysfunction work? In the event of a White victory, there is a possibility of the Whites fracturing into the various monarchist and republican factions again.

 

[Corjomc]

Nestor Makhno
1st President of Green Ukraine

1888 Makhno born

1906 Makhno joins anarchists

1908 Arrested by the Ochrana

1910 Makhno sent to the Far East

1917 Freed by February Revolution

1918 Joins Ukrainian militias

1920 Joins the Independent Green Ukraine Movement

1921 Fights the Reds

1922 Miracle on the Amur leads to Independence

1923 Outmaneuvers political rival Yuri Hlushko-Mova, Mova executed

1924 Makhno becomes President of the Green Ukraine (Claims all Ukraine)

1929 Deposed and sent into exile as Depression strikes

1930 Arrives in Paris to organize Free Ukraine Movement

1940 Flees Germans, moves to New York City til 1947

1952 Makhno in Paris dies in Exile


Legacy


After his death, his remains were first buried in Paris, before being repatriated to Green Ukraine in 1981. Makhno had wished to be buried in the city of Vladivostok, but this was never to be. For a long time they remained in a marble coffin in the Amur river Battle Site Museum in Khabarovsk, and in 2010 his remains were transferred by Anton Proskov to the Alter of the Motherland, in front of the Mova Building. In 2014, his body was temporarily stored at the Green Ukrainian Military School during the building of the Plaza of the Revolution, before being finally laid to rest in the new underground Crypt of the Liberator.


Makhno is widely commemorated today, both in Green Ukraine and beyond. One of the administrative regions of Green Ukraine was named General Nestor Makhno Region in his honour, as were other placenames such as the village of the Makhno Oblast. The main thoroughfare of the Green Ukrainian capital, Vladivostok, is General Nestor Makhno. There is also the Nestor Makhno National Park. In the town of Sofyisk, situated in the Northern Region, in Paris, there's a park and street named after him.

There is a bust of Makhno in the East Village in Manhattan. Each year the borough's mayor is joined by members of the Green Ukrainian Embassy for a ceremony, and a wreath is placed there. A blue-yellow-green plaque was erected in his honor where he lived while in exile in St.-Denis in Paris.


There is also a plaque in his honor in Freedom Square in Kiev, and a sculpture near Central Railway Station in the Ukrainian capitol. In 2005, a bust was erected "To the Liberator of Green Ukraine" by the Green Ukrainian Embassy in the Huliaipole, Zaporizhia Oblast where Makhno was born. A statue of Nestor Makhno in the city of Sevastapool was destroyed during the 2010 Crimean Uprising.


In 1978, American composer Andrew Lloyd Weber composed a musical on the life of Makhno titled Makhno of Green Ukraine.


In 1984, the football team Makhno F.C. was founded, named after him.


Green Ukraine's highest award for a foreign citizen is named in honor of Makhno, whilst the Green Ukrainian Navy has named several ships in his honor, including an armored cruiser (1926–1975), a World War II–era light cruiser (the former USS Brooklyn, CL-40) (1951–1992), and a French-built Scorpene class submarine (2003–present). The Green Ukrainian Base General Nestor Makhno research station in Antarctica is named in his honor.


On 28 January 2018, the Ukrainian Post Office and the Green Ukrainian Post Office issued stamps to commemorate the centenary of the beginning of the struggle for all Ukrainian Independence. The stamps honor men with backgrounds, who played a crucial role in the quest for Green Ukraine's liberation, Nestor Makhno and Yuri Hlushko-Mova.

 

[Augenis]

View attachment 378585
Nestor Makhno
1st President of Green Ukraine

1888 Makhno born

1906 Makhno joins anarchists

1908 Arrested by the Ochrana

1910 Makhno sent to the Far East

1917 Freed by February Revolution

1918 Joins Ukrainian militias

1920 Joins the Independent Green Ukraine Movement

1921 Fights the Reds

1922 Miracle on the Amur leads to Independence

1923 Outmaneuvers political rival Yuri Hlushko-Mova, Mova executed

1924 Makhno becomes President of the Green Ukraine (Claims all Ukraine)

1929 Deposed and sent into exile as Depression strikes

1930 Arrives in Paris to organize Free Ukraine Movement

1940 Flees Germans, moves to New York City til 1947

1952 Makhno in Paris dies in Exile


Legacy


After his death, his remains were first buried in Paris, before being repatriated to Green Ukraine in 1981. Makhno had wished to be buried in the city of Vladivostok, but this was never to be. For a long time they remained in a marble coffin in the Amur river Battle Site Museum in Khabarovsk, and in 2010 his remains were transferred by Anton Proskov to the Alter of the Motherland, in front of the Mova Building. In 2014, his body was temporarily stored at the Green Ukrainian Military School during the building of the Plaza of the Revolution, before being finally laid to rest in the new underground Crypt of the Liberator.


Makhno is widely commemorated today, both in Green Ukraine and beyond. One of the administrative regions of Green Ukraine was named General Nestor Makhno Region in his honour, as were other placenames such as the village of the Makhno Oblast. The main thoroughfare of the Green Ukrainian capital, Vladivostok, is General Nestor Makhno. There is also the Nestor Makhno National Park. In the town of Sofyisk, situated in the Northern Region, in Paris, there's a park and street named after him.

There is a bust of Makhno in the East Village in Manhattan. Each year the borough's mayor is joined by members of the Green Ukrainian Embassy for a ceremony, and a wreath is placed there. A blue-yellow-green plaque was erected in his honor where he lived while in exile in St.-Denis in Paris.


There is also a plaque in his honor in Freedom Square in Kiev, and a sculpture near Central Railway Station in the Ukrainian capitol. In 2005, a bust was erected "To the Liberator of Green Ukraine" by the Green Ukrainian Embassy in the Huliaipole, Zaporizhia Oblast where Makhno was born. A statue of Nestor Makhno in the city of Sevastapool was destroyed during the 2010 Crimean Uprising.


In 1978, American composer Andrew Lloyd Weber composed a musical on the life of Makhno titled Makhno of Green Ukraine.


In 1984, the football team Makhno F.C. was founded, named after him.


Green Ukraine's highest award for a foreign citizen is named in honor of Makhno, whilst the Green Ukrainian Navy has named several ships in his honor, including an armored cruiser (1926–1975), a World War II–era light cruiser (the former USS Brooklyn, CL-40) (1951–1992), and a French-built Scorpene class submarine (2003–present). The Green Ukrainian Base General Nestor Makhno research station in Antarctica is named in his honor.


On 28 January 2018, the Ukrainian Post Office and the Green Ukrainian Post Office issued stamps to commemorate the centenary of the beginning of the struggle for all Ukrainian Independence. The stamps honor men with backgrounds, who played a crucial role in the quest for Green Ukraine's liberation, Nestor Makhno and Yuri Hlushko-Mova.

I don't believe Green Ukraine, even with a miracle to defeat the Reds, would have been able to stay independent for long, especially not until 2018. Either it becomes a Japanese-aligned state and thus is occupied during the Soviet-Japanese War; or it becomes a victim of Japanese imperial ambitions roughly at the same time as Manchuria.

Though it's possible that if and when the USSR collapses, Green Ukraine could break away as a 16th republic.

 

[Corjomc]

Yeah it's highly unlikely, although history is full of weird things

They lose a lot of their Northern territory until the stop the Reds at the Amur with International help

Makhno's use of guerilla warfare in the lost territory helps wear down Bolshevik resolve

The West/Japan do not love the GU but they like Vladivostok and hate the communists

it could become another Manchukuo-like state

After the war its occupied by the U.S.

Falls under despotic "Democratic" One party Rule

Economic boom in Asia

Democratic Reforms

Unification Talks between Ukraine and Green Ukraine collapse

Present Day

 

[Wendell]

I don't know that most of these could, especially without foreign backing.

 

[GreggJulian]

Far Eastern Republic was probably the only viable state, and probably came closest to reality. The original pseudo Communist FER was overthrown by the Whites in its last year of existence. It only fell to the Reds when the Japanese finally pulled out. I'm not privy to the internal Japanese political machinations behind that decision, or what external pressure was exerted by the West, but this is as close to a genuine "Russian Taiwan" as OTL got.

The question is whether it would have been viable long term. It would have undoubtedly been dependent on Japanese arms, but you could make an argument for a strong White military presence being cultivated under Japanese protection. In OTL, Vladivostok grew exponentially after the White takeover. Over time, a relatively large native Russian population base could have been built up; nothing compared to Soviet Russia, but perhaps large enough, with a Japanese military alliance, to have become viable. The dog in the Japanese fight would have been potential Siberian resources at their disposal.

In the end it appears that the Japanese made all of these hypothetical calculations and decided that the project wasn't viable, we'll never know if they were correct.

 

[Wendell]

Lots of interesting butterflies from a Japanese vassal state in the Russian far East during/in the decades after the Russian Civil War.

 

[Christopher Marcus]

My money would be on the FER, too - under Japanese 'protection'. And then some of the Caucasian republics.

The difficulty with the others is in general that they are either too isolated (and easy pickings for the Reds in time) or sandwiched in between greater powers, like those two Lemko republics (which I had no idea had existed until today!)

Wonderful map by the way. But yes, odd that Ukraine is not on it.