The Mediterranean Union

[JamesBond88]

A concept which I've kicked around for awhile was the idea of an Italy that remains active, but ultimately neutral in WWII, and goes on to establish stronger economic ties to the other authoritarian regimes in Southern Europe. Portugal, for example, had issues with securing its interests, both strategic and economic, in the post-WWII era of increasing American hegemony in Europe. Would an Italy friendly to the Estado Novo, and particularly their economic and colonial concerns, have resulted in a more prosperous Portugal, and one in which the Estado Novo limps along for at least awhile longer?

Spain and Greece are the other two major parts of this union of sorts. Spain, from what I can gather, would greatly benefit from having a friendly face at the table when dealing with Europe. Greece, presuming ITTL that Italy decides to avoid invading in exchange for extracting concessions that draw Greece into its sphere, might benefit the least in this situation given that it was the recipient of substantial US aid and interests, but it would also have avoided the highly destructive war.

What do you all think? Could Mussolini or an alternate Duce have established themselves and Italy as the head of a Fascist, or at least authoritarian, bloc of countries in Southern Europe after the Second World War?

 

[Histor32]

no.. Italy had pretty sour relations with most of them. If Italy is not the prime player, no. If Italy is the prime player, then still no, its done at gunpoint.

 

[JamesBond88]

no.. Italy had pretty sour relations with most of them. If Italy is not the prime player, no. If Italy is the prime player, then still no, its done at gunpoint.

As I understand it Italy had amicable relations with Spain given their actions during the Spanish Civil War in support of the nationalists, the regime in Greece was modeled partly on Mussolini's Italy, and while Salazar probably wasn't a huge fan of Mussolini's style, I think he'd appreciate the opportunities that allying with him could bring.

 

[lukedalton]

Well, it can be done, not easy but can be done.
Spain is the easiest part, there were already good relations between the two nation and Spain was heavily indebted with Italy for the support in the civil war, with Franco being in the diplomatic doghouse in OTL (and probably ITTL), Rome seem the only great power willing to support them.
Portugal depend on how is the international situation but in a period of massive decolonization, the Estado novo can found in the italians a willing ally...and they have a shortage of this (so beggar can't choose)
Greece is the most difficult as it's historical a British client/ally, but if the Soviet are at the door and the UK (and France) are unwilling to aid, Italy it's the only option.

Better remember that Italy neutral mean a totally different second world war

 

[JamesBond88]

Well, it can be done, not easy but can be done.
Spain is the easiest part, there were already good relations between the two nation and Spain was heavily indebted with Italy for the support in the civil war, with Franco being in the diplomatic doghouse in OTL (and probably ITTL), Rome seem the only great power willing to support them.
Portugal depend on how is the international situation but in a period of massive decolonization, the Estado novo can found in the italians a willing ally...and they have a shortage of this (so beggar can't choose)
Greece is the most difficult as it's historical a British client/ally, but if the Soviet are at the door and the UK (and France) are unwilling to aid, Italy it's the only option.

Better remember that Italy neutral mean a totally different second world war

I agree with everything you've said here, and obviously a TL such as this depends on WW2 basically proceeding as OTL with an eventual Nazi defeat, division of Europe, and Cold War between the US and SU.

However, the means to reach this situation are of less interest to me than the effects it would have. How could a fascist/authoritarian bloc in Southern Europe affect the development of things like NATO, the Soviet interventions in their satellite states during uprisings, oil prices later on down the line, etc. Of particular interest to me are the colonies, OTL Spain gave up its territories in Western Sahara and Northern Morocco, would they still do so with Italy backing them? How would Arab nationalism be affected by continued European presence in Arab areas like Libya?

 

[lukedalton]

I agree with everything you've said here, and obviously a TL such as this depends on WW2 basically proceeding as OTL with an eventual Nazi defeat, division of Europe, and Cold War between the US and SU.

However, the means to reach this situation are of less interest to me than the effects it would have. How could a fascist/authoritarian bloc in Southern Europe affect the development of things like NATO, the Soviet interventions in their satellite states during uprisings, oil prices later on down the line, etc. Of particular interest to me are the colonies, OTL Spain gave up its territories in Western Sahara and Northern Morocco, would they still do so with Italy backing them? How would Arab nationalism be affected by continued European presence in Arab areas like Libya?

While this mediterrean Union/Pact will be nominally independent i see in reality working closely with NATO as organization and with UK, France and Netherlands as single entities against the communist and regarding decolonization. Franco with italian support will probably give up less territory to Morocco and Libya will probably devolve in a low level conflict between arab nationalist and italians (and arab collaborators) like North Ireland (frankly i doubt that the arabs will have the possibility to win due to their low numbers).

In general while officially practice fascist autarchy the association will need to evolve quickly in line more similar to the EEC if they want to mantain some semblance of competiviness and independence

 

[JamesBond88]

While this mediterrean Union/Pact will be nominally independent i see in reality working closely with NATO as organization and with UK, France and Netherlands as single entities against the communist and regarding decolonization. Franco with italian support will probably give up less territory to Morocco and Libya will probably devolve in a low level conflict between arab nationalist and italians (and arab collaborators) like North Ireland (frankly i doubt that the arabs will have the possibility to win due to their low numbers).

In general while officially practice fascist autarchy the association will need to evolve quickly in line more similar to the EEC if they want to mantain some semblance of competiviness and independence

That was my thinking as well in regards to what the organization would evolve into. Also of interest to me are how such an agreement would impact the economic futures of the countries involved. Plus, could there be other potential, non-European, member states. Chile comes to mind, as well as some of the Central American dictatorships, although their dependence upon the US for support somewhat nixes the idea of independent foreign policy on that scale. I think if something like this could get off the ground we could see a lengthening in the life span of numerous regimes across the globe, including perhaps Rhodesia, South Africa, maybe Pakistan's military governments? South Korea is a bit far flung, but cooperation between this Mediterranean organization and an outward looking South Korea could produce some butterflies.

 

[BigSteve]

With a potentially shorter WW2 and a less active France (no African front) could it be possible that France would hold onto Algeria with Spanish (morroco) and Italian (Lybia) support?
I know it isn't likely that Spain holds on to Morroco for much longer, but the Italians should have substantial assets in Lybia. Presuming support there, I could see it becoming a more pan-imperialist union with a more assertive Britain and France during the Suez crisis

 

[lukedalton]

That was my thinking as well in regards to what the organization would evolve into. Also of interest to me are how such an agreement would impact the economic futures of the countries involved. Plus, could there be other potential, non-European, member states. Chile comes to mind, as well as some of the Central American dictatorships, although their dependence upon the US for support somewhat nixes the idea of independent foreign policy on that scale. I think if something like this could get off the ground we could see a lengthening in the life span of numerous regimes across the globe, including perhaps Rhodesia, South Africa, maybe Pakistan's military governments? South Korea is a bit far flung, but cooperation between this Mediterranean organization and an outward looking South Korea could produce some butterflies.

Well, South Korea and the american dictatorships are difficult, the USA look them as their turf...maybe some ad hoc agreeement; it's more probable that this Mediterrean Union will become close to the so-called pariah state (Taiwan, Rhodesia and South Africa) and there is a convenience alliance with Israel on the table due to the common situation with the italians in Lybia.

 

[JamesBond88]

With a potentially shorter WW2 and a less active France (no African front) could it be possible that France would hold onto Algeria with Spanish (morroco) and Italian (Lybia) support?
I know it isn't likely that Spain holds on to Morroco for much longer, but the Italians should have substantial assets in Lybia. Presuming support there, I could see it becoming a more pan-imperialist union with a more assertive Britain and France during the Suez crisis

Italian Libya certainly lessens the options for Algerian rebels in terms of basing. I don't know that it would substantially change the French public's perception of Algeria though, and an emboldened France might commit more to Indochina, which would only hurt them. The Suez crisis I think could be substantially altered, if it even happens at all. Would a Nasser concerned with Italy next door be willing to test the wills of the other Imperial powers?