If the Fashoda incident were to devolve into full scale war the dragged the great powers in what would be the most likely alliances?
Sides in a Fachoda war
- Thread starter Imperator Frank
- Start date
Perhaps Russia would try to take advantage of the Franco-British conflict to take the upper hand in the Great Game.
Eurofed
Banned
Anglo-German-Austrian-Italian Quadruple Alliance vs. Franco-Russian Entente.
USA and Spain busy in their little separate fight.
I wonder if somehow the Spanish-American War can sort of merge with a Fashoda War. That would be interesting.
Who would spain most likely side with? What about the Ottomans?
Grey Wolf
Donor
Its likely, since someone will offer them something to join in. The only question would be who would want to end up at war with the USA!
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Then throw in the Ottomans somehow, and voila you have a World War.
Eurofed
Banned
Hard to say. France might do it, in order to gain Spain as a satellite, but the Franco-Russian Entente is already far too outmatched to pick another quarrel with America, short of its leaders picking an Hitler brain transplant. Britain knows that siding wth Spain means putting Canada to dire risk, especially with a major war in Europe raging, the Triple Alliance is busy with France and Russia and has no clear interest to defend Spain.
1)Italy is likely to act Great-War-like (not to enter in the war, and selling his alliance to the higher bidder)
2)Also please note that Quadruple Alliance clauses would not be binding in this scenario, thus Austria is less likely to intervene.
3)Last point is,
-why should germany attack france (germany is already satisfied by its western border)?
-why should france attack germany (war with britain is a big war all by itself)?
Germany might attack France to gain influence elsewhere (nab Morocco for one, they wanted that for a while).
Wasn't Nappy III in some way tied to Italian unification (I know nothing of the subject, so don't yell at me)?
European war on Morocco?
Russian-French Entente was well known in Berlin.
On the other hand, stranger things have happened
He was, but that would mean Italy be less willing to attack france.
Thus Quadruple Alliance should not seen as a monolithic block.
On the other hand, italy had claim on French territories both in Europe (Nice, savoy, Corse) and on Africa (Tunis), and there had been a considerably cooling down of relationship between Rome and Paris (thus, Italy entering the Alliance).
Thus, bids are opened on its atual behaviour
The Germans wanted war with Russia sooner rather than later. If Russia gets involved I can see the Germans getting involved. If not, then they wouldn't bother.
There isn't a way that Fashoda and the Spanish-American War can be combined, because the Spanish-American War has been concluded well before the Fashoda Crisis starts in October 1898.
Germany won't attack France because nothing suits Germany better than watching Britain and France fight each other, with the resulting economic disruptions which will only help Germany. France was putting out reluctant feelers for an agreement during the Fashoda crisis.
Italy won't attack France because they are completely outmatched by France, and in OTL made preparation for armed neutrality so as not to be bullied by either France or Britain into fighting a war it wasn't ready for (see Adowa).
Russia won't fight Britain because it decided in OTL that it wasn't going to get in an industrial-era war over a ruined fort in Sudan.
France is in trouble against Great Britain already, why would it pick a fight with anyone else?
War doesn't suit anybody during Fashoda, including Great Britain and France, and Germany is the real winner of an Anglo-French war...without fighting.
Germany won't attack France because nothing suits Germany better than watching Britain and France fight each other, with the resulting economic disruptions which will only help Germany. France was putting out reluctant feelers for an agreement during the Fashoda crisis.
Italy won't attack France because they are completely outmatched by France, and in OTL made preparation for armed neutrality so as not to be bullied by either France or Britain into fighting a war it wasn't ready for (see Adowa).
Russia won't fight Britain because it decided in OTL that it wasn't going to get in an industrial-era war over a ruined fort in Sudan.
France is in trouble against Great Britain already, why would it pick a fight with anyone else?
War doesn't suit anybody during Fashoda, including Great Britain and France, and Germany is the real winner of an Anglo-French war...without fighting.
Additionally, even in Eurofed's unlikely scenario, France and Russia are not overmatched. Not at all. Instead of France battering against the Germans in ill-advised offensives, it will be the Germans doing the reverse against a French Army oriented in a defensive posture; the Schlieffen Plan hasn't been created yet.
Note also that in 1898 an italian anarchic (Luccheni) murders Franz Josef's wife (Sissi)
a quick look to https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=152003
a quick look to https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=152003
Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
Also, Germany had increased its relative power to France quite a bit between 1898 and 1914.
The Ottomans will not enter, period. Technically Fashoda is in Ottoman territory, but there's no way they would get dragged into a general war with Abdul Hamid on the throne.