Great War?

The London Times, 17 September 1898
The whole Europe was shocked last week by the news that an Italian citizen, named Luigi Lucheni, brutally murdered the Austrian Emperess, Queen of Hungary, Croatia and Bohemia Elizabeth of Bavaria, spouse of Francis Joseph I.
The Austro-Hungarian Minister for Foreign Affairs issued yesterday to its italian counterpart a document containing 10 requests to be accomplished by the Kingdom of Italy, if the latter does not want to face severe consequences.
The document, to be interpreted as a de-fact Ultimatum, cites the alledgly "existence of a subversive movement in Italy, whose object it is to separate certain portions of its territory from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy. This movement, which came into being under the very eyes of the Italian Government, subsequently found expression outside of the territory of the Kingdom in acts of terrorism, in a number of attempts at assassination, and in murders ".
Apart from the request to the Italian Government to "condemn the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Austro- Hungarian Monarchy territories that belong to it, and it most sincerely regrets the dreadful consequences of these criminal transactions", the document request "to institute a judicial inquiry against every participant in the conspiracy of the 10th of September who may be found in Italian territory; the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government delegated for this purpose will take part in the proceedings held for this purpose", and also "to remove from the military and administrative service in general all officers and officials who have been guilty of carrying on the propaganda against Austria-Hungary, whose names the Imperial and Royal Government reserves the right to make known to the Royal Government when communicating the material evidence now in its possession".

Would Germany back Austria against Italy though. I'm not so sure.

The Ultimatum Text

The Austro-Hungarian Minister for Foreign Affairs, Berchtold, to the Minister at Rome
Your Excellency will present the following note to the Royal Government on the afternoon of September 15th:

The history of the past few years, and particularly the painful events of the 10th of September, have proved the existence of a subversive movement in Italy, whose object it is to separate certain portions of its territory from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy. This movement, which came into being under the very eyes of the Italian Government, subsequently found expression outside of the territory of the Kingdom in acts of terrorism, in a number of attempts at assassination, and in murders.
Far from fulfilling the formal obligations, the Royal Italian Government has done nothing to suppress this movement. It has tolerated the criminal activities of the various unions and associations directed against the Monarchy, the unchecked utterances of the press, the glorification of the authors of assassinations, the participation of officers and officials in subversive intrigues; it has tolerated an unhealthy propaganda in its public instruction; and it has tolerated, finally, every manifestation which could betray the people of Italy into hatred of the Monarchy and contempt for its institutions.
This toleration of which the Royal Italian Government was guilty, was still in evidence at that moment when the events of the twenty-eighth of September exhibited to the whole world the dreadful consequences of such tolerance.
It is clear from the statements and confessions of the criminal authors of the assassination of the 10th of September, that the murder at Geneve was conceived at Rome, that the murderers received the weapons and the bombs with which they were equipped from Italian officers, and, finally, that the dispatch of the criminals and of their weapons to Switzerland was arranged and effected under the conduct of Italian frontier authorities.
The results brought out by the inquiry no longer permit the Imperial and Royal Government to maintain the attitude of patient tolerance which it has observed for years toward those agitations which center at Rome and are spread thence into the territories of the Monarchy. Instead, these results impose upon the Imperial and Royal Government the obligation to put an end to those intrigues, which constitute a standing menace to the peace of the Monarchy.
In order to attain this end, the Imperial and Royal Government finds itself compelled to demand that the Italian Government give official assurance that it will condemn the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Monarchy territories that belong to it; and that it will obligate itself to suppress with all the means at its command this criminal and terroristic propaganda. In order to give these assurances a character of solemnity, the Royal Italian Government will publish on the first page of its official organ of July 26/13, the following declaration:
"The Royal Italian Government condemns the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, that is to say, the whole body of the efforts whose ultimate object it is to separate from the Austro- Hungarian Monarchy territories that belong to it, and it most sincerely regrets the dreadful consequences of these criminal transactions.

"The Royal Italian Government regrets that Italian officers and officials should have taken part in the above-mentioned propaganda and thus have endangered the friendly and neighborly relations, to the cultivation of which the Royal Government had most solemnly pledged itself .

"The Royal Government, which disapproves and repels every idea and every attempt to interfere in the destinies of the population of whatever portion of Austria-Hungary, regards it as its duty most expressly to call attention of the officers, officials, and the whole population of the kingdom to the fact that for the future it will proceed with the utmost rigor against any persons who shall become guilty of any such activities, activities to prevent and to suppress which, the Government will bend every effort."
This declaration shall be brought to the attention of the Royal army simultaneously by an order of the day from His Majesty the King, and by publication in the official organ of the army.
The Royal Italian Government will furthermore pledge itself:
1. to suppress every publication which shall incite to hatred and contempt of the Monarchy, and the general tendency of which shall be directed against the territorial integrity of the latter;

2. to proceed at once to the dissolution of any irredentist movement, to confiscate all of their means of propaganda, and in the same manner to proceed against the other unions and associations in Italy which occupy themselves with propaganda against Austria-Hungary; the Royal Government will take such measures as are necessary to make sure that the dissolved associations may not continue their activities under other names or in other forms;

3. to eliminate without delay from public instruction in Italy, everything, whether connected with the teaching corps or with the methods of teaching, that serves or may serve to nourish the propaganda against Austria-Hungary;

4. to remove from the military and administrative service in general all officers and officials who have been guilty of carrying on the propaganda against Austria-Hungary, whose names the Imperial and Royal Government reserves the right to make known to the Royal Government when communicating the material evidence now in its possession;

5. to agree to the cooperation in Italy of the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government in the suppression of the subversive movement directed against the integrity of the Monarchy;

6. to institute a judicial inquiry against every participant in the conspiracy of the twenty-eighth of September who may be found in Italian territory; the organs of the Imperial and Royal Government delegated for this purpose will take part in the proceedings held for this purpose;

7. to undertake with all haste the arrest of Italian officials who have been compromised by the results of the inquiry;

8. by efficient measures to prevent the participation of Italian authorities in the smuggling of weapons and explosives across the frontier; to dismiss from the service and to punish severely those members of the Frontier Service who assisted the authors of the crime of Geneve to cross the frontier;

9. to make explanations to the Imperial and Royal Government concerning the unjustifiable utterances of high Italian functionaries in Italy and abroad, who, without regard for their official position, have not hesitated to express themselves in a manner hostile toward Austria-Hungary since the assassination of the twenty-eighth of September;

10. to inform the Imperial and Royal Government without delay of the execution of the measures comprised in the foregoing points.
The Imperial and Royal Government awaits the reply of the Royal Government by Saturday, the 15th instant, at 6 p.m., at the latest.

yourworstnightmare said:

Would Germany back Austria against Italy though. I'm not so sure.

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Vienna, September 11, 1898. Dispatch from the German Ambassador at Vienna.

A series of conditions should be sent to the Italians, and, if they did not accept these, energetic steps should be taken.
His Majesty discussed the situation with the greatest calm, then he expressed his cordial thanks for the attitude of our august Sovereign and of the Imperial Government and declared that he now shared our opinion completely, that he thought as we did that a decision must be reached in order to put an end to the intolerable state of affairs in Italy.

Memorandum from the Frenche Ambassador in Vienna.
(Extract from a Consular Report on the Economic and Political Situation in Austria )

Vienna, September 20,1898.
From information furnished by a person specially well informed as to official news, it appears that the French Government would be wrong to leave confidence in disseminators of optimism; much will be demanded of Italy; she will be required to dissolve several propagandist societies, she will be summoned to repress nationalism, to guard the frontier in co-operation with Austrian officials, to keep strict control over anti-Austrian tendencies in the schools; and it is a very difficult matter for a Government to consent to become in this way a policeman for a foreign Government. They foresee the subterfuges by which Italy will doubtless wish to avoid giving a clear and direct reply; that is why a short interval will perhaps be fixed for her to declare whether she accepts or not. The tenour of the note and its imperious tone almost certainly ensure that Rome will refuse. Then military operations will begin.
There is here, and equally at Berlin, a party which accepts the idea of a conflict of widespread dimensions, in other words a conflagration. The leading idea is probably that it would be necessary to start before any other European Power has brought her military organisation to perfection. But on this point there is no unanimity in high circles; Count Berchtold and the diplomatists desire at the most localised operations against Italy. For the last ten days, the official agency has furnished daily to the Austro-Hungarian press a complete review of the whole Italian press, giving a prominent place to the least known, the smallest and most insignificant papers, which, just on account of their obscurity, employ language freer, bolder, more aggressive, and often insulting. This work of the official agency has obviously for its aim the excitement of public feeling and the creation of opinion favourable to war.

Very interesting

Sisi was very popular, and i suppose her OTL assassination could have had this sort of effect.

I take it your POD is that Lucheni is an Italian Nationalist as opposed to an anarchist looking to kill any old Royal?

Deckhand said:

Very interesting

Sisi was very popular, and i suppose her OTL assassination could have had this sort of effect.

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Very popular with the Hungarians at least, but distant from her husband. It would be interesting to see if the Triple Alliance tears itself apart on this since I would believe that Berlin would be reigning Vienna in keep the alliance together.

The Italian Response to the Austro-Hungarian Ultimatum

Rome, 16th of September, 1898
The Royal Government has received the communication of the Imperial and Royal Government of the 15th inst. and is convinced that its reply will dissipate any misunderstanding which threatens to destroy the friendly and neighbourly relations between the Austrian monarchy and the kingdom of Italy.
1) The Italian Royal Government cannot be made responsible for expressions of a private character, as for instance newspaper articles and the peaceable work of societies, expressions which are of very common appearance in other countries, and which ordinarily are not under the control of the state. This, all the less, as the Royal Government has shown great courtesy in the solution of a whole series of questions which have arisen between Italy and Austria-Hungary, whereby it has succeeded to solve the greater number thereof, in favour of the progress of both countries.
The Royal Government was therefore painfully surprised by the assertions that citizens of Italy had participated in the preparations of the outrage in Geneve. The Government expected to be invited to cooperate in the investigation of the crime, and it was ready, in order to prove its complete correctness, to proceed against all persons in regard to whom it would receive information.
2) The Royal Government confesses that it is not clear about the sense and the scope of that demand of the I. and R. Government which concerns the obligation on the part of the Royal Italian Government to permit the cooperation of officials of the I. and R. Government on Italian territory, but it declares that it is willing to accept every cooperation which does not run counter to international law and criminal law, as well as to the friendly and neighbourly relations.
3) The Royal Government considers it its duty as a matter of course to begin an investigation against all those persons who have participated in the outrage of September 10th and who are in its territory. As far as the cooperation in this investigation of specially delegated officials of the I. and R. Government is concerned, this cannot be accepted, as this is a violation of the constitution and of criminal procedure. Yet in some cases the result of the investigation might be communicated to the Austro-Hungarian officials.
4) The Royal Government will notify the I. and R. Government, so far as this has not been already done by the present note, of the execution of the measures in question as soon as one of those measures has been ordered and put into execution.
The Royal Italian Government believes it to be to the common interest not to rush the solution of this affair and it is therefore, in case the I. and R. Government should not consider itself satisfied with this answer, ready, as ever, to accept a peaceable solution, be it by referring the decision of this question to the International Court at The Hague or by leaving it to the decision of the a council of all European Great Powers who have participated in the working out of the declaration

La Gazzette de Geneve, 11th September 1898
Crime scene Reconstruction

1898
The interlocking Treaties are not as set in Stone --Yet.
Britain's foreign policy is still splendid isolation.
Fashoda has tainted Anglo-French Relations.
Russia is not as industrialized as it will be in as little as 5 years later, when the serfs are liberated, in order to allow them to work in the Factories.
No Aircraft. thro there have been several Blimps designed and flown.
Very few Motorized vehicles, - no Tanks during war.
Pre Dreadnoughts.
Schillen? plan not yet drawn up.
Everyone has Machine Guns, but their role/use is still being worked out.
No Japanese/British treaty, but it has been talked about since 1895.

I'm wondering how the Sides will play out, but this is going to be 1905 write large, across the fields of Europe.

The French Consul-General at Budapest, to the French President of the Council, Minister for Foreign Affairs.
Budapest, September 20th, 1898.

Questioned in the Chamber on the state of the Austro-Italian question The Hungarian Minister explained that before everything else it was necessary to wait for the result of the judicial inquiry, as to which he refused at the moment to make any disclosure whatsoever. And the Chamber has given its full approval to this. He also showed himself equally discreet as to the decisions taken at the meeting of Ministers at Vienna, and did not give any indication whether the project of a démarche at Rome, with which all the papers of both hemispheres are full, would be followed up. The Chamber assented without hesitation.
With regard to this démarche it seems that the word has been given to minimise its significance; the anger of the Hungarians has, as it were, evaporated through the virulent articles of the press, which is now unanimous in advising against this step, which might be dangerous. The semi-official press especially would desire that for the word "démarche," with its appearance of a threat, there should be substituted the expression "pourparlers," which appears to them more friendly and more courteous. Thus, officially, for the moment all is for peace.
All is for peace, in the press.
But the general public here believe in war and fears it. Moreover, persons in whom I have every reason to have confidence have assured me that they knew that every day cannon and ammunition were being sent in large quantities towards the frontier. Whether true or not this rumour has been brought to me from various quarters with details which agree with one another; at least it indicates what are the thoughts with which people are generally occupied. The Government, whether it is sincerely desirous of peace, or whether it is preparing a coup, is now doing all that it can to allay these anxieties. This is why the tone of the Government newspapers has been lowered, first by one note, then by two, so that it is at the present moment almost optimistic. But they had themselves spread the alarm as it suited them (à plaisir). Their optimism to order is in fact without an echo; the nervousness of the Bourse, a barometer which cannot be neglected, is a sure proof of this; without exception stocks have fallen to an unaccountably low level; the Hungarian 4 per cents. were quoted yesterday at 79.95, a rate which has never been quoted since they were first issued

DuQuense

Good summary but one error. The serfs were freed in 1863.

I suspect that Britain would be happy to sit this one out and make hay while its rivals bled themselves white, at least unless and until someone looks like winning big.

Given some of what's been mentioned on this site about France compared to Germany this could be very bad for the central powers if France, Italy and Russia end up at war with them. Not sure about the relative level of defensive fortifications and techniques at this point however. [Or more accurately I don't have a clue]. Thinking about it however would Japan feel strong enough to have a go at a distracted Russia if the latter got suitably bogged down.

Steve

DuQuense said:

1898
The interlocking Treaties are not as set in Stone --Yet.
Britain's foreign policy is still splendid isolation.
Fashoda has tainted Anglo-French Relations.
Russia is not as industrialized as it will be in as little as 5 years later, when the serfs are liberated, in order to allow them to work in the Factories.
No Aircraft. thro there have been several Blimps designed and flown.
Very few Motorized vehicles, - no Tanks during war.
Pre Dreadnoughts.
Schillen? plan not yet drawn up.
Everyone has Machine Guns, but their role/use is still being worked out.
No Japanese/British treaty, but it has been talked about since 1895.

I'm wondering how the Sides will play out, but this is going to be 1905 write large, across the fields of Europe.

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I smell a war coming. A couple of questions, though. Was the Scramble for Africa pretty much finished by 1898? What was the main German war plan before the Schleiffen Plan? This will probably coincide with the Boer War, so that might be one reason for Britain to stay neutral. Also, could the Spanish-American War tie into this somehow? Maybe Spain, when attacked, offers to join the war on one side or the other in exchange for aid against the Americans.

Overall, I agree with DuQuense on the general shape of the war. The opposing alliances will be interesting. Which side Germany and Britain are on will be the most important. France will definitely be on the opposite side of Germany if it joins the war. Russia may try to take advantage of the Austrian distraction in Italy to expand their influence in the Balkans. I can see these opposing alliances fairly easily, but it could be many things:

Germany-Italy-Russia
vs.
Austria-France-Ottomans
Britain is neutral, but favors Austria/France
or:

Germany-Austria-Ottomans
vs.
France-Italy-Russia
Britain is neutral, but favors Germany

The US will probably join the war only if someone starts sinking their shipping. Otherwise, they'll stay neutral and maybe tackle Spain.

DuQuense

Good summary but one error. The serfs were freed in 1863.

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Yes in 1863 the Tzar issued a proclamation freeing the Serfs.
At which point the Serfs** revolted against the proclamation, so in 1864 the Tzar rescinded the proclamation. And the Serfs went happily back to work.
The proclamation was then reissued in 1903, and no one paid any attention to it, as the Serfs had left the land already. [or bought it and become Farmers [rich ?Kopacs?] that would plague Lenin in the 20's.



** Whe Modern people look at it as the Serfs being bound to the Land, But from a Serfs viewpoint, It is a matter of the Land being Bound to Them.
No Scottish style Clearances, as long as the Bond is intact.

imperialaquila said:

I smell a war coming. A couple of questions, though. Was the Scramble for Africa pretty much finished by 1898? What was the main German war plan before the Schleiffen Plan? This will probably coincide with the Boer War, so that might be one reason for Britain to stay neutral. Also, could the Spanish-American War tie into this somehow? Maybe Spain, when attacked, offers to join the war on one side or the other in exchange for aid against the Americans.

Overall, I agree with DuQuense on the general shape of the war. The opposing alliances will be interesting. Which side Germany and Britain are on will be the most important. France will definitely be on the opposite side of Germany if it joins the war. Russia may try to take advantage of the Austrian distraction in Italy to expand their influence in the Balkans. I can see these opposing alliances fairly easily, but it could be many things:

Germany-Italy-Russia
vs.
Austria-France-Ottomans
Britain is neutral, but favors Austria/France
or:

Germany-Austria-Ottomans
vs.
France-Italy-Russia
Britain is neutral, but favors Germany

The US will probably join the war only if someone starts sinking their shipping. Otherwise, they'll stay neutral and maybe tackle Spain.

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the Sp-American War is probably butterflied out...as the Maine probably will not explode in Havana harbour given the circumstances in Europe. Spain will still be experienceing its Cuban problems to which the Americans will be sympathetic, but it is not a CB for War against them.

btw , why are the Ottomans in this fray... this is 1898...no Balkan wars. no annexation of BH. its going to need some meddling from another major power ( Russia me thinks) but that may simp0ly mean a concurrent Russo-Ottoman conflict unless the A-H and Ottomans ally as a show of solidarity to enforce the status quo or eliminate Russian influences....in which case the conflict would expand.

Is the Franco Italian agreement even in effect at this point?



I can see Russia using the opportunity to upset the the Austrian position in the Balkans... but outright intervention in a war betwe3en A-H and Italy...questionable...that means that Russia would likely face the ire of the Ottomans and British depending on how rash their course of action.

Germany may support A-H materially but as long as there is no intervention from another third party ( Russia or France,) its likely they won't intervene militarily. It will depend on whether one of those two is rash enough to to move overtly against A-H.

In a war between A-H and Italy alone...the edge probably goes to A-H simply because they have the numbers and are more of a land power, but it will be a hard slog on a narrow front unless they get lucky at sea and with a landing somewhere, not impossible but the Italian navy probably has the edge at sea.

I guess I am going to have to do some checking... and the political situation on the continent probably changes Britain's reaction to the Boers as well I should think. Its going to be up to them to check the Russians in the Balkans by supporting the Ottoman's given the pre-occupation of both Italy and A-H with each other.

and just some thoughts regarding Japan... they are fresh from victory over China but have had to give up Port Arthur at the insistence of the Triple intervention powers (Germany/France and Russia) and Russia has just gained their lease on Port Arthur from China earlier this year(1898)...so its particularly galling to the Japanese. If they should enter it will probably be against Russia to force the issue of spheres of influence in Korea and Manchuria. Really though it depends on ho it plays out in Europe.

Wikipedia: Elizabeth Murder

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Murder

On 10 September 1898, in Geneva, Switzerland,
Elisabeth, aged 60, was stabbed in the heart
with a sharpened file by a young italian irredendist
named Luigi Lucheni, in an act of
"Propaganda per la Patria".

When attacked, she had been walking
along the promenade of Lake Geneva
about to board the steamship Genève
for Montreux with her lady-of-courtesy,
Countess Sztaray.

She boarded the ship,
unaware of the severity of her condition.
Bleeding to death from a puncture wound
to the heart, Elisabeth said,
"What happened to me?"

The strong pressure from her corset
had contained the bleeding back until
the garment was removed.

Reportedly, her assassin had hoped to kill
a prince from the House of Haupsburgh and,
failing to find him, turned on Elisabeth instead.
Lucheni afterwards said,
"I wanted to kill an Austrian royal.
It did not matter which one."

i really like the idea of this thread. keep going!

From: Luigi Pelloux, Italian Prime Minister
To: All the Italian legations abroad.
Rome, Farnesina Palace, September 17, 1898.
(Telegraphic.)

During the past few days the Austro-Hungarian newspapers have been spreading reports to the effect that there have been demonstrations at Rome against the Austro-Hungarian Legation, that some Austrian journalists were killed; that Austro-Hungarian subjects in Rome were maltreated and are now panic-stricken; that Italian students made a demonstration against the Austro-Hungarian Prime Minister Count Franz von Thun und Hohenstein and against the Austrian Emperor Franz Joseph I; that offensive mottos were yelled against the name of the late Emperess Elizabeth of Bavaria.

All these reports are absolutely untrue and imaginary.

Complete calm prevails in Rome and there were no demonstrations of any kind this year, nor has there been any question of disorder. Not only do the Austro-Hungarian Minister and his staff walk about the town without being molested in any way, but no Austro-Hungarian subject has been in any way insulted, either by word or deed, as is reported by the Viennese papers; still less was any attack made upon the house of any Austro-Hungarian subject or were any of their windows broken.

Not a single Austro-Hungarian subject has had the slightest cause for any complaint. All these false reports are being purposely spread in order to arouse and excite Austro-Hungarian public opinion against Italy.

The entire diplomatic body were present to-day at a commemoration of the late Emperess Elizabeth of Bavaria; there was not the slightest sign of resentment shown by anybody. During the whole ceremony exemplary order was maintained; so much so that foreigners were impressed with the good behaviour of the crowd, which was such as does not always prevail on similar occasions even in their own countries.

Be good enough to communicate the above to the Government to which you are accredited and to the press.

Be good enough to communicate the above to the Government to which you are accredited and to the press.

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A Lot here will depend on how the Government views the two sides.
During WW2 Germany tried to run a Advertisement in the NY Papers warning people of the fact that Germany considered the Lusitania as a War ship due to the Ammo it was carrying.
The US State department got the NY papers to pull the ad.

I can see something like this happening in the pro AH countries.

Berlin, September 20, 1898
Confidential. For Your Excellency's personal information and guidance

The Austro-Hungarian Ambassador yesterday delivered to the Emperor a confidential personal letter from the Emperor Francis Joseph, which depicts the present situation from the Austro-Hungarian point of view, and describes the measures which Vienna has in view. A copy is now being forwarded to Your Excellency.

I replied today on behalf of His Majesty that His Majesty sends his thanks to the Emperor Francis Joseph for his letter and would soon answer it personally. In the meantime His Majesty desires to say that he is not blind to the danger which threatens Austria-Hungary as a result of the Italian irredentistic agitation.

His Majesty will make an effort at Rome, according to the wishes of the Emperor Francis Joseph, to influence King Umberto I to the fulfilment of the demaché, to the public renunciation of any claim on Tirol and Friuli, and to the suppression of the irredentistic agitations directed against Austria-Hungary.

In case such a mediation attempt is refused by the italian government, however, His Majesty cannot interfere in the dispute between Austria-Hungary and that country, as it is a matter not within his competence. The Emperor Francis Joseph may, however, rest assured that His Majesty will faithfully stand by Austria-Hungary, as is required by the obligations of his alliance and of his ancient friendship.

Prince Chlodwig zu Hohenlohe-Schillingsfürst, Canchellor of the German Reich