Thank you Ref, I do enjoy the timeline intensely. I look forward to reading it, no matter what happens
To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
As always, I enjoyed the update! The conflict between Germany and the Ottomans over Azerbaijan was interesting, especially with the realignment of Germany trying to back Russia and the Ottomans considering Britain’s future patronage. Although the UK still expanded its Middle Eastern empire, the partition is less severe than OTL, which will definitely make things interesting down the road.
I would like to see a giant naval battle, but I actually want the HSF to lose quite decisively.
The German leadership was high on their own fumes and casting about for whatever maximalist victories and schemes they could hatch. Them throwing the dice on an outlandish plan that doesn't really make sense, risks their already established victory, and blows up in their face so they need to handle reality is something that would be interesting to see.
Germany deciding they can just conquer everything and do anything, and then being proven right, is not particularly interesting to me. Germany dealing with a frustrated Britain, that also got a pretty little win to soothe its pride, and then having to walk back their dreams of grandeur to a more reasonable victory? Now that I find more interesting.
The German leadership was high on their own fumes and casting about for whatever maximalist victories and schemes they could hatch. Them throwing the dice on an outlandish plan that doesn't really make sense, risks their already established victory, and blows up in their face so they need to handle reality is something that would be interesting to see.
Germany deciding they can just conquer everything and do anything, and then being proven right, is not particularly interesting to me. Germany dealing with a frustrated Britain, that also got a pretty little win to soothe its pride, and then having to walk back their dreams of grandeur to a more reasonable victory? Now that I find more interesting.
A Note on the Timeline and Contributions
Hullo all,
Just wanted to say a few things. First of all, thank you all for your often actually quite heartfelt and positive feedback. Having dabbled over whether to get this going for so long, it was very nice to see so much positivity, support and celebration of my efforts. I really appreciate it, and it has certainly motivated me to deliver more.
I do think I need to address the fact that unfortunately the last few pages of posts have often been quite argumentative and occasionally 'shouty' though. While I genuinely appreciated the advice about the potential for a German Naval sortie, I think the comments that followed led to unneccessary arguments and divisiveness, so I want to iron out why I have the rules in the original post, and why I think being respectful in this timeline is important.
Bu there is no such thing as "unnecessary" arguments! It's simple case of mistaken intention... You can agree with me or you can be wrong, purely your choice of course
(KIDDING! Oh dear Lord-n-Lady I joke!
)No problem it's just that some of us, (me likely in particular) don't 'explain' ourselves well initially and then spend FAR to many posts 'ret-conning' ourselves to where we want to be in the fist place. Your timeline so your rules and while it's great to get deeper into the authors thoughts, (internet validation by disagreement squeee!
) in the end we're hoping to help and ride your coat-tails a bit but in the end it is YOUR story so feel free to ignore us. (We're used to it by now )I sincerely apologize if I've done so, it was not my intent. As for stress... I've been married for over 30 years so at this point being 'wrong' is well understood and comfortable pillow for me
Others, not so much. I again apologize.Again apologies as some of us, (again me specifically I'm sure
) have inflated opinions about our opinions. Never mind us, we'll sort ourselves out eventually. YOU take care of YOU and if we don't listen, it's likely we don't understand how your opinion could possibly differ from ours Called it! Greater Grand Fenwick wank! All Hail the Mighty Mouse! NO not that one...
Which I will admit I finally see after a re-read and I admit that I fell into the usual "Germany wins at any point means KaiserReich TL(tm)" thinking but in context given the POD I don't see that anymore and I can't wait to see where this goes.
Greater Gran Fenwick... I'm telling you it's inevitable
More seriously you had my interest and now you definitely have my attention...
Well there's your problem! You used books and facts when the INTERNET is right there!
Keep going, we'll try and keep ourselves to a dull roar in the background
Randy
An excellent new chapter! Thanks for the rapid pace of the updates!
The Ottomans find peace, but will the empire survive?
The Ottomans find peace, but will the empire survive?
Honestly I think they have a better chance then Germany has at the moment
Well, if Germany wants to mess with the Turks going forward, there's always Bulgaria, or Greece, or the Armenians, or mayhaps even the Kurds or disaffected Azerbaijani Shiites....
That being said, I think they are now a natural British ally -- another front to corral Iran, a possible cudgel against restless Arabs, another front to corral the Russians regardless of who wins their civil war, a source of oil and the keeper of the Hellespont. And they are more likely to be a reliable partner now that they've alienated a Germany which has a friendly Bulgaria (and possibly Greece) in the neighborhood. Maybe Ali Kemal Bey can be the Ambassador to the Court of St. James -- who knows, his great-grandkid might end up the PM!
That being said, I think they are now a natural British ally -- another front to corral Iran, a possible cudgel against restless Arabs, another front to corral the Russians regardless of who wins their civil war, a source of oil and the keeper of the Hellespont. And they are more likely to be a reliable partner now that they've alienated a Germany which has a friendly Bulgaria (and possibly Greece) in the neighborhood. Maybe Ali Kemal Bey can be the Ambassador to the Court of St. James -- who knows, his great-grandkid might end up the PM!
What a preposterous suggestion, am I right?Maybe Ali Kemal Bey can be the Ambassador to the Court of St. James -- who knows, his great-grandkid might end up the PM!
Reformer,
I agree that all you highlighted in your argument is valid thoughts. The disagreements are in degree. How much is the Germans compelled? How much patience would the US have? How much worse is the pressure on Germany (compared to 1917…)? How motivated is Italy to keep help blockading Germany (probably not endearing at the peace talks)?
These kinds of disagreements will always be there to one degree or another and in my opinion you are fully justified to move on having explained your opinion.
I agree that all you highlighted in your argument is valid thoughts. The disagreements are in degree. How much is the Germans compelled? How much patience would the US have? How much worse is the pressure on Germany (compared to 1917…)? How motivated is Italy to keep help blockading Germany (probably not endearing at the peace talks)?
These kinds of disagreements will always be there to one degree or another and in my opinion you are fully justified to move on having explained your opinion.
Here is an example from Denmark on how the food balance could change ittl. According to this Denmark maintained food exports to Great Britain because the were dependent on animal feed imports after russian exports diminished.
I would Think that just the perceived German win and prospects of renewed Russian exports might shift this balance towards Germany. Not an example refuting any general arguments you have made, but an example of a quantitative shift in Germany favor. No need to respond to this, its only a small added weight on the scale.
I would Think that just the perceived German win and prospects of renewed Russian exports might shift this balance towards Germany. Not an example refuting any general arguments you have made, but an example of a quantitative shift in Germany favor. No need to respond to this, its only a small added weight on the scale.
I as someone who also sufferers from anxiety I can understand how difficult it can be. Ultimately, you won't be able to satisfy everyone no matter how much research or evidence you get as personal opinion dominates and people can get very unpleasent when their beliefs, even relativelly irrelevant ones, are challenged. Just write things the way you want and don't let yourself get dragged down, ignore the comment section entirely if you have to.
If I wanted a German wank, theirs several other stories here and on ASB that I could read, I started reading this one precisely because it's going for a more realistic presentation and even I f I disagree on minor things, I'm still very much enjoying the timeline and hope you keep going.
If I wanted a German wank, theirs several other stories here and on ASB that I could read, I started reading this one precisely because it's going for a more realistic presentation and even I f I disagree on minor things, I'm still very much enjoying the timeline and hope you keep going.
Cheers for the supportive messages all - and fear not, I very much intend to continue.
Today's update will cover what ends up happening to the German fleet!
Today's update will cover what ends up happening to the German fleet!
Ahhh nothing like a bit of High Seas Fleet to go with my morning coffee!
Great to hear, I've been deeply interested in the timeline since the first edition (even before I joined the site last year).
Just a few questions, now the Ottomans are out of the war, how do they negotiate peace treaties with the Allies. This is how I see the peace negotiations and their participants, minus the Ottomans (please correct me if wrong):
Laeken (Brussels)
- Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria)
- France
- Belgium
- Luxembourg
- United States (observer)
Vienna
- Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, Bulgaria)
- Serbia
- Albania
- Montenegro
- Greece
- Italy
- United States (observer)
With the Ottomans out of the negotiations, will they be negotiating separate peace treaties with the states they were at war with? Additionally, are the Americans solely attending the Vienna and Brussels conferences as observers, or are they negotiating their own peace terms as well?
Other than that, loving this new edition and I keenly await your latest update.
I enjoy this immensely. Watched.
I'd say that something not yet touched upon is that I think Wilson is utterly screwed. The US got nothing out of this except a casualty list, and the average man on the street wasn't keen on the war anyhow.
I'd say that something not yet touched upon is that I think Wilson is utterly screwed. The US got nothing out of this except a casualty list, and the average man on the street wasn't keen on the war anyhow.
categorically disagree.
Wilson in OTL had a stroke, almost died, had his wife basically take over from 1919-1920 got taken to the cleaners regarding his peace agreement and 14 points, his party got shellacked, and america suffered over 300,000+ casualties.
What happens here? America fights one battle with around 12,000 casualties that's a *very minor* success. Wilson, rather than having the pressure of trying to force together the 14 points through a bloodthirsty Clemenceau and Lloyd George and give up on nearly everything in the hopes of ensuring an organization built on International Cooperation, which doesn't even get ratified in his own country (partly due to his own intransigeance) stroking out because of it, instead he gets to play the part of "Tribune of the Balkan plebs" which always plays well.
While this would be stressful, it's not what would think enough to give him a debilitating stroke, meaning he remains lucid for far longer. This has consequences far beyond the league of nations. The American Intervention in the Far East of Russia was headless and deeply confused BECAUSE Wilson was basically off his rocker. Given he most likely doesn't have this stroke, he's more apt to get involved which would be a good thing.
I'm not saying the Democrats would be going into the midterms expecting a confident victory nor am I saying that Wilson, who wanted to go for a third term, would win a landslide or even win at all. But it seems really clear to me that the ceiling for Wilson and the Democratic Party is already low enough in OTL that it really seems they'll clear the bar here purely by virtue of some issues not even coming up at all.
Be honest here, do you seriously think the Democrats do worse than THIS?
This is correct, however the United States is not an observer at Vienna (Schönbrunn Palace), that is where it is negotiating it's own treaty officially. It is however an observer at Laeken yes.
I'm not gunna touch on the Ottoman peace after this besides with Britain really, but basically as I briefly touched on in the update, the Ottomans will sort of just agree to the return of bodies, prisoners and ships, mutual guarantees of no indemnities, status quo with all the other parties, etc. They'll sign individual peace's where relevant, with some being sorted out sooner and some later. Probably will 'technically' be at war with Brazil and China for example for a while largely out of laziness/apathy.
While the resolution of the Ottoman situation was excellent overall I do feel something significant was overlooked. Eliminating the Capitulations was a surprisingly big goal of the Three Pashas in the Great War. So I feel it would surely come up in their negotiations with the British. I will note that in OTL the Treaty of Lausanne abolished the Capitulations for all signatories so it is not an outrageous demand.