Goeben Atlantic breakout

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Goeben may have to adjust its speed in order to pass through the Straits of Gibraltar during the hours of darkness. Looking at today's sunrise & sunset times for Gibraltar, it looks like 8 hours between nautical twilight & nautical dawn.
https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/gibraltar/gibraltar?month=8&year=2021

 

[I want to learn]

Regarding coaling Goeben past Gibraltar, reading wikipedia about German armed merchant cruisers has provided some ideas but there's a lot of holes in the story. Like, Kronprinz Wilhelm took coal from a "SS Walhalla" (Valhalla?) that is otherwise seemingly unmentioned on the internet on August 17th in the Azores. Similarly, Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse was coaling from three unnamed German/Austrian colliers August 26th off the coast of Spanish Morocco when HMS Highflyer sank her...and it's unclear to me what happened to those colliers in the aftermath or if they are the colliers involved in the attempt to establish a base at Trindade Island in September 1914 ("Eleonore Woermann" might have been one of them?)

 

[I want to learn]

Trolling German wikipedia and using google translate suggests “Eleonore Woermann” was from German colonies in Cameroon. Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse was being coaled by a “Magdeburg”, and “Bethania” August 17th at some point prior also had captured a British collier “Arucas” which was present at (but escaped) the battle against HMS Highflyer. A contemporary newspaper article (a dubious source if there ever was one) says Arucas, Magdeburg, and two other unnamed colliers were coaling Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse on August 26th. (Was one Bethania or Eleonore Woermann? Which one was “Austrian”?) I suggest that Goeben would have made for a rendezvous with some of these ships in the week or so after she escaped from Cadiz/Tangiers/Lisbon, if she were lucky enough to do so. I still don’t know much at all about these “Magdeburg” and “Bethania” auxiliaries, but they seem like they were in the general region shortly after the presumed time frame of a Goeben breakout.

 

[YYJ]

This early in the war it would be possible for German colliers to still be running about, as you say. Their situation would be made easier if the Goeben's breakout was pre-arranged, so that they would not have to use wireless so much.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

As to merchant ships, in 1916, when Portugal entered the war there were 36 German and Austro-Hungarian ships in Lisbon, according to Wikipedia at least. However, an inventory by HAPAG earlier in 1916 had identified 10 German ships interned in Portuguese harbours (presumably that means at least 26 A-H ships in Lisbon), and does not mention any in Spanish ports . I am unsure of the point at which such ships were considered to be interred and therefore unavailable to support a German Capital ship, or move between harbours. It does seem like the bulk were focused on the Portuguese ports though.

That's interesting.

If Souchon had broken out of the Mediterranean without being damaged by the British forces at Gibraltar and his intention is to return to Germany then I think he'll make for a Portuguese port to refuel because it's distance from British and French naval bases makes it the hardest to blockade. A port in SW Spain is too close to Gibraltar and French Morocco. Corunna and Ferrol in NW Spain are too close to the French naval bases in the Bay of Biscay.

Except that I don't expect him to break out of the Mediterranean with undamaged ships and the probability his ships being "mission killed" increases the more I think about it.

 

[ArtosStark]

That's interesting.

If Souchon had broken out of the Mediterranean without being damaged by the British forces at Gibraltar and his intention is to return to Germany then I think he'll make for a Portuguese port to refuel because it's distance from British and French naval bases makes it the hardest to blockade. A port in SW Spain is too close to Gibraltar and French Morocco. Corunna and Ferrol in NW Spain are too close to the French naval bases in the Bay of Biscay.

Except that I don't expect him to break out of the Mediterranean with undamaged ships and the probability his ships being "mission killed" increases the more I think about it.

Based on the fuel calculations I was doing earlier, he may just be able to make Lisbon or Setubal if he remains at 17 knots or less. Though even then he is likely to be running on fumes. I also haven't calculated Breslau's range. That could be a limiting factor as well.

Additionally it seems likely, as @Coulsdon Eagle has mentioned, that Souchon would adjust speed to try to take the straits at night. That may extend his range somewhat, and give him the best chance of passing through the straits, but it may also give the British BC's time to get to Gibraltar ahead of him, and coal. That would mean that if Souchon is observed going through the straits (which seems likely), then even if he gets through undamaged he is likely to be pursued.

Plus, Portugal is leaning more towards the Entente, which means he may face more political difficulties even if he makes it to a Portuguese port.

Overall, there is nothing to say that it is impossible but the odds are very much against Goeben making it home, or having a significant impact on the war.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Based on the fuel calculations I was doing earlier, he may just be able to make Lisbon or Setubal if he remains at 17 knots or less. Though even then he is likely to be running on fumes. I also haven't calculated Breslau's range. That could be a limiting factor as well.

Additionally it seems likely, as @Coulsdon Eagle has mentioned, that Souchon would adjust speed to try to take the straits at night. That may extend his range somewhat, and give him the best chance of passing through the straits, but it may also give the British BC's time to get to Gibraltar ahead of him, and coal. That would mean that if Souchon is observed going through the straits (which seems likely), then even if he gets through undamaged he is likely to be pursued.

Souchon won't get through the Strait of Gibraltar if the British battlecruisers have time to get to Gibraltar ahead of him because they will sink him. Their guns can fire further than the 9.2" guns at Gibraltar so they aught to be able to sink the German ships from Gibraltar's harbour if they're still taking on coal when the Germans arrive. However, I doubt that all 3 ships would refuel at the same time. I think they'd coal one or two ships at a time while the other one or two patrolled the strait.

I now think that if the German ships reached Gibraltar before the British battlecruisers it would be very difficult break into the Atlantic without being "mission killed" or sunk outright by the British submarines, torpedo boats and coast artillery and virtually impossible to pass through the straits unobserved.

However, I don't believe that the British battlecruisers pursuing the Germans into the Atlantic is a given. They may be ordered to return to Malta in case the Austrians make a sortie into the Mediterranean. It depends upon how far behind the British ships are or more pertinently how far behind the Admiralty thinks they are.

If the Admiralty believes that the British battlecrusiers are close behind they will order them to pursue the Germans into the Atlantic and mount a close blockade on whatever port Souchon makes for with two ships on station and the other coaling at Gibraltar. Therefore, the German ships would be interned and fall into Entente hands if Portugal declared war on the Central Powers or sunk if they put to sea. I think Souchon would do the latter or scuttle his ships because Portugal was Britain's oldest ally so there was a very good chance that Portugal would declare war on the Central Powers (and IOTL it did in March 1916).

Plus, Portugal is leaning more towards the Entente, which means he may face more political difficulties even if he makes it to a Portuguese port.

I agree. My guess is that the Entente strategy will be to delay Souchon's departure for as long as possible while they assemble a force that can sink him. However, that would give Souchon more time to coal and conduct repairs which will help him a lot in the unlikely event of evading the force that the Entente sends to sink him.

IMHO Portugal is the lesser of evils. Cadiz is too close to the British submarines at Gibraltar (and the British battlecruisers if they aren't ordered to return to Malta). Corunna and Ferrol are too close to the British and French cruisers in the English Channel.

Overall, there is nothing to say that it is impossible but the odds are very much against Goeben making it home, or having a significant impact on the war.

I think it's possible, but making it home becomes more improbable every time I think about it. The Germans have to roll too many sixes. The most important ones are:

1. They reach Gibraltar before the British battlecruisers, which are sent to Malta to mount a distant blockade on the Austrian Fleet in the Adriatic.
2. They break into the Atlantic without being hit by the British coast artillery, torpedo boats and submarines at Gibraltar.
3. It would help if they passed Gibraltar without being observed.
4. They've got enough coal to make Lisbon or Setubal.
5. The German ships at Lisbon or Setubal have 4,250 tons of coal and can transfer it to Souchon's ships pdq. (According to Conway's 1906-21: 3,050 tons of coal, Goeben and 1,200 tons of coal, Breslau. Their ranges were Goeben, 4,120 nautical miles at 17 knots and Breslau, 5,820 nautical miles at 12 knots or 900 nautical miles at 25 knots.)
6. The Portuguese authorities don't make Souchon leave before he's finished coaling.
7. Or they enable the Entente navies assemble a force that can sink or at least "mission kill" Souchon's ships by delaying his departure. Which, I think is more likely.

Evading the Northern Patrol and Grand Fleet is easy by comparison.

Edit 12:05 GMT 26/03/21
Point 5 is wrong: Goeben's endurance is 4,120 nautical miles at 14 knots.

 

[I want to learn]

However, I doubt that all 3 ships would refuel at the same time

If we’re going with a August 2nd or 3rd POD for Souchon, one that only begins to change British action on the 4th, there would only really be two battlecruisers in position to interfere with Goeben. It was Indefatigable and Indomitable that chased Goeben when it was headed back to Messina, but only because they essentially coincidentally crossed paths on the 4th. If Goeben had gone west, these two ships probably would have continued on their course, which indeed was to attempt interception of Goeben before she passed through Gibraltar - what the Admiralty expected. Milne himself was in Inflexible back around Malta, and not well positioned to interfere with a westward breakout. And if you look at my rough math in post 36, it’s kind of unclear who would get where first. I’m actually thinking the most likely scenario is that sometime in the western Mediterranean on the 5th the two forces encounter each other and it becomes a flat out chase. Perhaps with Goeben attempting to barrel past a fully warned Gibraltar in broad daylight with the British battlecruisers right behind - or Souchon turns to have a square fight outside the range of coastal batteries. Either way it would be a very dramatic conclusion to the initial (and last if the British prevail) phase of the chase.

he German ships at Lisbon or Setubal have 4,250 tons of coal and can transfer it to Souchon's ships pdq. (According to Conway's 1906-21: 3,050 tons of coal, Goeben and 1,200 tons of coal, Breslau. Their ranges were Goeben, 4,120 nautical miles at 17 knots and Breslau, 5,820 nautical miles at 12 knots or 900 nautical miles at 25 knots.)

the German cruisers don’t need full loads of coal, just enough to make it to the Azores or where ever . Examination of the history of German auxiliary cruisers suggests there were lots of German colliers off Spanish Morocco or the Azores. IOTL they sent HMS Highflyer to disrupt the Germans. Tangent, I think it’s interesting they sent an obsolescent 5,000 ton protected cruisers to do this job when there was concern during the era that a large well armed auxiliary cruiser might be able to overpower or outrun such old cruisers (which was part of the reason for the I class battlecruisers) even though this was exactly the kind of opponent HMS Highflyer found and destroyed. If she had instead found Goeben...the battle of Rio de Oro would have had a dramatically different outcome.

They break into the Atlantic without being hit by the British coast artillery, torpedo boats and submarines at Gibraltar

I think WW1 submarines had a very hard time sinking a maneuvering warship at speed. Goeben should have been armored against 9.2 inch guns and it would have taken luck on the British part for it to cause killing damage. And yes a successful torpedo boat attack would have been the end, although that too requires luck, skill and verve from the Royal Navy, and I think successful torpedo boat attacks in WW1 were also rare. Perhaps instead of arguing about armored cruiser doctrine in a court martial, there’d be an argument in a court martial over an officer at Gibraltar declining to attack with torpedo boats in daylight (I think torpedo boats were commonly thought of as being night fighting vessels especially against capital ships)

 

[naraic]

I think WW1 submarines had a very hard time sinking a maneuvering warship at speed. Goeben should have been armored against 9.2 inch guns and it would have taken luck on the British part for it to cause killing damage. And yes a successful torpedo boat attack would have been the end, although that too requires luck, skill and verve from the Royal Navy, and I think successful torpedo boat attacks in WW1 were also rare.

Goeben's belt ranges from 3 to 11 inches. If hit on a part of the belt with 11 inches of armour Goeben would have a very reasonable zone of immunity. If hit on part with 3 inches armour well there's probably nothing vital there but the shell is probably going through at almost all ranges. When you are weeks from harbour minor damage because major pretty quickly.

The other benefit of coastal forts is that it controls the area. You know Goeben won't be coming through the third of the strait nearest you so you can concentrate torpedo boats and submarines. The remaining space. Is much easier to cover with torpedo boats rather than covering the entire Strait.

Regarding hitting a maneuvering warship at speed. That depends on if the warship is coming at you at a known course. If the submarines are out there in advance of the Germans they have a good chance of firing a salvo of torpedoes and from there its in the lap of the gunnery officer.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

I think WW1 submarines had a very hard time sinking a maneuvering warship at speed. Goeben should have been armored against 9.2 inch guns and it would have taken luck on the British part for it to cause killing damage. And yes a successful torpedo boat attack would have been the end, although that too requires luck, skill and verve from the Royal Navy, and I think successful torpedo boat attacks in WW1 were also rare. Perhaps instead of arguing about armored cruiser doctrine in a court martial, there’d be an argument in a court martial over an officer at Gibraltar declining to attack with torpedo boats in daylight (I think torpedo boats were commonly thought of as being night fighting vessels especially against capital ships)

I think there's a good chance that the Germans would be "mission killed". That is they aren't sunk outright but the damage they receive from the British forces at Gibraltar will render them unfit for further service. @naraic put it better than I could in Post 219. Especially the part about minor damage when you are weeks from harbour.

 

[ArtosStark]

Perhaps with Goeben attempting to barrel past a fully warned Gibraltar in broad daylight with the British battlecruisers right behind - or Souchon turns to have a square fight outside the range of coastal batteries. Either way it would be a very dramatic conclusion to the initial (and last if the British prevail) phase of the chase.

If it comes down to a fight, the I class are actually in a bit of trouble. They were never designed to fight capital ships. Their job was to run down and destroy cruisers. And they were good at that. But there were no equivalents to them when they were designed. Their armour is not designed for the size of gun that Goeben brings to the fight. And the 12"/45 was actually not a great gun. Within 10,000 yards, it was fairly accurate but beyond that its accuracy degraded significantly. That was part of the reason that the 12"/50 was designed, though it would end up having similar issues. British shells are also not in a great state at this point, with Jellicoe's proposed improvements having stalled when he left the Admiralty.

It is a much more even fight than I would prefer, were I the British Admiralty.

I think WW1 submarines had a very hard time sinking a maneuvering warship at speed

True, but the relatively enclosed waters of the strait do improve their odds somewhat, if they are well deployed.

Goeben should have been armored against 9.2 inch guns and it would have taken luck on the British part for it to cause killing damage

They don't need killing damage. A mission kill would be just as critical this far from home. Even minor hits can end up causing major problems.

the German cruisers don’t need full loads of coal, just enough to make it to the Azores or where ever .

It is 805 nm from Setubal to Ponta Delgada, which is about the shortest trip they would be able to make. For Breslau, that is no problem. According to the range numbers @NOMISYRRUC posted above (assuming a linear slope again) Beslau would have a fuel economy of 3.27 nm/ton at 17 knots. That means it only needs 246 tons of coal to make the trip. Goeben, on the other hand, with her 0.7 nm/ton at 17 knots will need 1,150 tons.

This kind of highlights the long term problem with Goeben in the Azores. She is not a raider. She is too thirsty for fuel to be easily sustained in such a role. The amounts of coal that she is likely to get from her victims are not going to be enough to make up for what she had to burn to get it over the long term. And her doing so is probably going to negatively affect the efforts of the other raiders in the area. More importantly, she is going to force a response from the British. I think it is likely that even if she escaped to the Azores she would be pursued. Possibly by a heavier force than just the two I's.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

They don't need killing damage. A mission kill would be just as critical this far from home. Even minor hits can end up causing major problems.

They also had the assistance of 11 x 6 inch and 7 x 4" guns. They couldn't sink the Goeben, but they could do a lot of damage to Breslau.

British shells are also not in a great state at this point, with Jellicoe's proposed improvements having stalled when he left the Admiralty.

Is there any information on the quality of British 9.2", 6" and 4" shells at this stage of the war? It will improve Souchon's chances of breaking into the Atlantic without being "mission killed" if they were as bad as the heavier shells.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

I think WW1 submarines had a very hard time sinking a maneuvering warship at speed. Goeben should have been armored against 9.2 inch guns and it would have taken luck on the British part for it to cause killing damage. And yes a successful torpedo boat attack would have been the end, although that too requires luck, skill and verve from the Royal Navy, and I think successful torpedo boat attacks in WW1 were also rare. Perhaps instead of arguing about armored cruiser doctrine in a court martial, there’d be an argument in a court martial over an officer at Gibraltar declining to attack with torpedo boats in daylight (I think torpedo boats were commonly thought of as being night fighting vessels especially against capital ships)

It is true that Goeben did have armour that was proof against 9.2" shells - principally the main belt and the turret faces - at the ranges they were likely to have been engaged

But lots of it is not proof aginst such weapons - at 9,000 yards (8,230 m) the 9.2" is penetrating 5.3 in (135 mm) so anywhere outside of her main belt / turret face is going to be savaged and lots of soft equipment destroyed or degraded.

And penetrating or not she is better off not being hit by 380 pound shells

Another reason why he went East and not West

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The German cruisers don’t need full loads of coal, just enough to make it to the Azores or where ever . Examination of the history of German auxiliary cruisers suggests there were lots of German colliers off Spanish Morocco or the Azores. IOTL they sent HMS Highflyer to disrupt the Germans.

Yes they do because the wherever is Wilhelmshaven via the Denmark Strait.

Coaling off the coast of Spanish Morocco or a port in SW Spain isn't an option IMHO. The Germans might have colliers in the vicinity, but it's too close to Gibraltar.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

What if instead of heading east towards Constantinople Admiral Souchon takes the battlecruiser Goeben west towards Gibraltar in an attempt to break out into the Atlantic Ocean at the start of World War One? This was a course of action included as a possibility in Souchon’s initial orders and anticipated by the British Admiralty, so it seems to be a plausible POD.

So in July Souchon changes his plans somewhat - perhaps his flagship has more busted engines and needs to go back to Germany proper for repairs - and leaves Pola a few days early, and Goeben manages to slip through the Channel when Britain is still at peace, not even thinking of fighting the Royal Navy. It is a feasible possibility...

According to Conway's 1906-21 the ranges of Goeben and Breslau (with full coal bunkers) were:

Goeben 4,120 nautical miles at 17 knots​

Breslau 5,820 nautical miles at 12 knots or 900 nautical miles at 25 knots.​

Port of Lisboa (Lisbon), Portugal to Port of Ponta Delgada, Portugal sea route and distance

Port of Lisboa (Lisbon), Portugal to Port of Ponta Delgada, Portugal sea route and distance.

ports.com

According to the above website it's 3,684 nautical miles from Pola to Wilhelmshaven via the English Channel. The journey would take 9.0 days at 17 knots including 8.1 days for the 3,301 nautical miles between Pola and Dover.

So I think Souchon has to leave Pola before Midnight on Sunday 26th July if he's to reach Wilhelmshaven before the British declaration of war. Except, the Germans didn't know that the British Government would declare war on 4th August 1914.

...and it will help Hipper no end in the North Sea. An extra BC for I Scouting Group at this critical time is like a blessing from the gods.

An extra light cruiser wouldn't go amiss either.

Edit 12:10 GMT 26/03/21
Correction: Goeben's range was 4,120 nautical miles at 14 knots.
Edit 12:45 GMT 26/03/21
That means it would take 9.8 days to reach Dover and 11.0 days to reach Wilhelmshaven, which means Souchon has to leave Pola before Midnight on Friday 24th July 1914.

 

[ArtosStark]

Is there any information on the quality of British 9.2", 6" and 4" shells at this stage of the war? It will improve Souchon's chances of breaking into the Atlantic without being "mission killed" if they were as bad as the heavier shells.

The modifications later made were to the nose, basically adding a second cap. This, plus changes in the propellant, created the Greenboy shell. The 9.2 went through the same evolution. The shells at the beginning of WW1 had 2 crh nose profile, like their larger cousins. However, on looking through NavWeapons I found this:

"I would have thought that with this large cavity, which was exactly the same as in World War I, the 9.2" Mark XIIA APC would have had problems with projectile breakup against thick armor at moderate obliquity (circa 1-caliber-thick plate at around 30 degrees obliquity). However, this was not the case. In fact, these projectiles -- both the US and British designs -- are, from the tests I have seen, THE BEST BRITISH APC PROJECTILES EVER MADE!! They penetrate armor better and remain in one piece under more extreme impact conditions (I even gave them a separate entry in FACEHARD's British projectile table). I have no idea why they were so good. Obviously there are "sweet spots" for every kind of mechanical design and this shell happens to be right on top of one."

Nathan Okun

So they did apparently have some bight to them. That said, I beleive he was testing the WW2 era "Greenboy" version, not the early WW1 2 crh version.

 

[ArtosStark]

Goeben 4,120 nautical miles at 17 knots

Are you sure on this? Everything I have seen so far gave this range at 14 knots. If it is 17 most of my calculations are off.

 

[I want to learn]

Yes they do because the wherever is Wilhelmshaven via the Denmark Strait.

Coaling off the coast of Spanish Morocco or a port in SW Spain isn't an option IMHO. The Germans might have colliers in the vicinity, but it's too close to Gibraltar.

But that is *exactly* what the AMC Kaiser Wilhelm der Grosse did in roughly the same place and time (Azores and Morocco August 17th through 26th). It was another coal-guzzling ~20,000ton ~23 knot cruiser which broke out into the Atlantic at the start of the war with orders to raid commerce. It’s as close to a historical parallel as could ever exist.

More importantly, she is going to force a response from the British. I think it is likely that even if she escaped to the Azores she would be pursued. Possibly by a heavier force than just the two I's.

Which I think would be the point and the main strategic implication. Pulling 13.5 inch gunned BCs from the North Sea potentially butterflies things like Royal Navy victory at the first battle of Heligoland Bight. Goeben acts as a “fleet in being” hiding out in remote parts of the Atlantic and causes the Royal Navy loss of concentration of force against the HSF.

 

[ArtosStark]

Which I think would be the point and the main strategic implication. Pulling 13.5 inch gunned BCs from the North Sea potentially butterflies things like Royal Navy victory at the first battle of Heligoland Bight. Goeben acts as a “fleet in being” hiding out in remote parts of the Atlantic and causes the Royal Navy loss of concentration of force against the HSF.

Maybe, if they are lucky and/or good enough. Though to compare the possible benefits and risks of going West verses East, East does seem like the better bet.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Which I think would be the point and the main strategic implication. Pulling 13.5 inch gunned BCs from the North Sea potentially butterflies things like Royal Navy victory at the first battle of Heligoland Bight.

The relative strengths at Heligoland were 5 battlecruisers, 8 light cruisers, 33 destroyers and 8 submarines for the RN versus 6 light cruisers, 19 torpedo boats and 12 minesweepers for the IGN. Cutting a couple of BCs or even all of them still doesn't tilt the balance in the German's favour. Anyway, Heligoland was a planned attack by the British, not an encounter battle. If they lose the BCs they either cancel it altogether or adjust the plan.

Goeben acts as a “fleet in being” hiding out in remote parts of the Atlantic and causes the Royal Navy loss of concentration of force against the HSF.

She can only hide as long as the coal lasts. At the absolute best, we could see some kind of "Goeben scare" until she's run down, interred or manages to get back to Germany (which surely must be Souchon's ultimate goal) but it won't last for ever. The advantage in British numbers (and hesitancy of the Kaiser to commit the HSF to battle) won't be overcome by a single battlecruiser rampaging around the Atlantic.