Goeben Atlantic breakout

[I want to learn]

What if instead of heading east towards Constantinople Admiral Souchon takes the battlecruiser Goeben west towards Gibraltar in an attempt to break out into the Atlantic Ocean at the start of World War One? This was a course of action included as a possibility in Souchon’s initial orders and anticipated by the British Admiralty, so it seems to be a plausible POD.

Would a strong enough French or British fleet be able to intercept Goeben at or before Gibraltar? (The British started out west of Goeben and so are poorly positioned to do so, and the French ships are all too slow unless the catch Goeben coaling...which Goeben does need to do)

Could Goeben expect to coal from neutral Portugal or Spain? (Italy didn’t make things easy, but it was allowed)

Could Goeben make directly for home in Germany? (The ship would have to pass the bulk of the Royal Navy and probably take a circuitous route spending a lot of time steaming at high speed...did Goeben have the fuel reserve for this kind of voyage?)

If Goeben did cross the Atlantic for the Americas, how much damage could she cause? (I know she had the range for this, I believe von der Tan and Moltke did visit the Americas at different points pre-war)

What kind of resources does the Royal Navy need to deploy against the threat? (Multiple battlecruiser hunting groups alone, in pairs, or squadrons?)

How long before Goeben’s engines stop being able to provide useful speed? (The loosely analogous cruiser Dresden was also trapped overseas at the beginning of the war in need of an engine overhaul but was one of the last raiders to be hunted down)

Could she cross into the Pacific to rendezvous with von Spee? (I *think* the Americans would allow passage through the Panama Canal)

Would South American ports be willing and able to sell the Germans affordable coal in sufficient quantities to continue operating? (I *think* the East Asia Squadron was able to fuel from neutrals)

 

[YYJ]

Goeben treats the Royal Navy to a fine panic, for a bit. Turkey is more inclined to stay neutral. Strategic win for the Entente.

Without looking at maps and dates, my guess is that Goeben gets mission killed by Indominable, Inflexible, and Indefatigable, perhaps blowing one of them up in the exchange, then inters in Spain or Portugal.

Keeping that ship in coal would be a big job. Von Spee managed to evade all the pursuing navies because he had a head start, and the Pacific Ocean is a very big place, with lots of remote islands to stop and coal. Plus Von Spee had a fleet of colliers already set up.

Your POD sounds like it starts with an ad hoc dash for Gibraltar, with the Royal Navy hot on Souchon's heels. Goeben would not have the breathing room that Von Spee enjoyed. Also, he would want to be careful passing Gibralar, it was defended by 14 x 9.2 inch guns.

 

[naraic]

The French fleet hasnt moved to malta yet.

Its scattered between North Africa and the French Mediterranean mainly escorting convoys and in base.

I suspect the Goeben would run into something French if it goes for Gibraltar.

Then it probably wants to run the straits at night to reduce risk of being hit by shore based guns. This means circling the Western Med while hoping not to run into the French (and allowing French ships to catch up).

Running the straits there is of course a risk of the torpedo boats catching them.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

What if instead of heading east towards Constantinople Admiral Souchon takes the battlecruiser Goeben west towards Gibraltar in an attempt to break out into the Atlantic Ocean at the start of World War One? This was a course of action included as a possibility in Souchon’s initial orders and anticipated by the British Admiralty, so it seems to be a plausible POD.

Would a strong enough French or British fleet be able to intercept Goeben at or before Gibraltar? (The British started out west of Goeben and so are poorly positioned to do so, and the French ships are all too slow unless the catch Goeben coaling...which Goeben does need to do)

Could Goeben expect to coal from neutral Portugal or Spain? (Italy didn’t make things easy, but it was allowed)

Could Goeben make directly for home in Germany? (The ship would have to pass the bulk of the Royal Navy and probably take a circuitous route spending a lot of time steaming at high speed...did Goeben have the fuel reserve for this kind of voyage?)

If Goeben did cross the Atlantic for the Americas, how much damage could she cause? (I know she had the range for this, I believe von der Tan and Moltke did visit the Americas at different points pre-war)

What kind of resources does the Royal Navy need to deploy against the threat? (Multiple battlecruiser hunting groups alone, in pairs, or squadrons?)

How long before Goeben’s engines stop being able to provide useful speed? (The loosely analogous cruiser Dresden was also trapped overseas at the beginning of the war in need of an engine overhaul but was one of the last raiders to be hunted down)

Could she cross into the Pacific to rendezvous with von Spee? (I *think* the Americans would allow passage through the Panama Canal)

Would South American ports be willing and able to sell the Germans affordable coal in sufficient quantities to continue operating? (I *think* the East Asia Squadron was able to fuel from neutrals)

In order:

• No - the Allies will not catch Goeben in the Med while she is moving. Bad positioning and Archibald Milne will see to that.
• Possibly. Some nifty diplomacy could help.
• Yes. Go through the Channel. Risky but feasible at this stage in the war.
• A fair bit - but she'd be wasted alone and wouldn't last long. The RN would hunt her down. She could chew up the British blockade on German liners and merchantmen before she goes down, however.
• Definitely at least pairs. Goeben is tough and heavily armed. Invincibles and Indefatigables are toast against her. You'll need the Cats - and detaching them from the GF is going to piss off Jellicoe and Beatty.
• Probably not a great deal. She needed an engine overhaul anyway. As it was she could barely make 25 knots when being chased by Indomitable and Indefatigable.
• Basically no. That is too far. Far too far and there's no guarantee she can rendezvous with Spee. If, miraculously, she did, the British have got an ever bigger problem on their hands.
• Yes. Chile was friendly for one.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The British (who were not then at war) where expecting Geoben to head West and possible try to interdict French troop transporters from North Africa - and that's pretty much how she managed to give them the slip - because she went East!

So if she did head West then that's what they were setup for and I suspect that all 3 BCs will catch up with her and while she is individually superior to the 'I' class 3 of them easily over match her.

Also she might as well be on the dark side of the moon as far as getting back to the Jade is concerned, she cannot refuel anywhere in that direction and if at flank speed then consuming coal at a terrific rate and that speed can only be maintained for so long by coal fired ships.

And while her guns are making a mockery of an I class BCs armour - the same is true of the 12" guns on the British ships and any damage is going to rapidly degrade her

And having taken any damage she has no where to go.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

The British (who were not then at war) where expecting Geoben to head West and possible try to interdict French troop transporters from North Africa - and that's pretty much how she managed to give them the slip - because she went East!

So if she did head West then that's what they were setup for and I suspect that all 3 BCs will catch up with her and while she is individually superior to the 'I' class 3 of them easily over match her.

Also she might as well be on the dark side of the moon as far as getting back to the Jade is concerned, she cannot refuel anywhere in that direction and if at flank speed then consuming coal at a terrific rate and that speed can only be maintained for so long by coal fired ships.

And while her guns are making a mockery of an I class BCs armour - the same is true of the 12" guns on the British ships and any damage is going to rapidly degrade her

And having taken any damage she has no where to go.

So in July Souchon changes his plans somewhat - perhaps his flagship has more busted engines and needs to go back to Germany proper for repairs - and leaves Pola a few days early, and Goeben manages to slip through the Channel when Britain is still at peace, not even thinking of fighting the Royal Navy. It is a feasible possibility - and it will help Hipper no end in the North Sea. An extra BC for I Scouting Group at this critical time is like a blessing from the gods.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

So in July Souchon changes his plans somewhat - perhaps his flagship has more busted engines and needs to go back to Germany proper for repairs - and leaves Pola a few days early, and Goeben manages to slip through the Channel when Britain is still at peace, not even thinking of fighting the Royal Navy. It is a feasible possibility - and it will help Hipper no end in the North Sea. An extra BC for I Scouting Group at this critical time is like a blessing from the gods.

That's feasible - but she would have to leave a week or so earlier (I once did Majorca to Gib to Gosport/Portsmouth in a total of about 9 days at 10 knots) and possibly longer as I am sure that no one could predict when 'the balloon' would go up - but it also frees up RN and MN assets from having to watch for her in the Eastern Med breaking out etc - so it works both ways.

Possible allows HMS Defence to reach Craddocks Squadron in time before Coronel?

My understanding is that OTL she was called back to help with Goeben after originally being sent south (and Craddock was still expecting her to turn up)

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The French fleet hasn't moved to Malta yet.

Its scattered between North Africa and the French Mediterranean mainly escorting convoys and in base.

I suspect the Goeben would run into something French if it goes for Gibraltar.

Then it probably wants to run the straits at night to reduce risk of being hit by shore based guns. This means circling the Western Med while hoping not to run into the French (and allowing French ships to catch up).

Running the straits there is of course a risk of the torpedo boats catching them.

I've had a look at my Conway's 1860-1905 & 1906-21 and after making allowance for what @Kantai Kessen wrote about Goeben being barely able to make 25 knots it looks like she could outrun every French capital ship (including the Courbets), every French armoured cruiser and every French protected cruiser.

Therefore, unless the French (by accident or design) encounter the Germans in a position where Souchon can't use his speed advantage or Goeben has machinery problems the Germans will be able to avoid most of the obstacles the French can put in their way. That is everything except a strong force of destroyers. I think the best tactic that the French could employ is to make Souchon steam as fast as possible to make his coal run out sooner or force a machinery breakdown.

Does anyone know if Goeben and Breslau's higher maximum speeds would be matched by higher economical cruising speeds?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

On the subject of destroyers the best French vessels were the 18 boats of the Bouclier and Bisson classes. Their normal displacement was between 720 and 791 tons. Both classes had a maximum speed of 30 knots and carried four 17.7" torpedoes.

The British Mediterranean Fleet's destroyers were the 5th Destroyer Flotilla's 16 Beagle or "G" class boats. Their average normal displacement was 945 tons. Their maximum speed was only 27 knots, but I suspect that they had a higher maximum speed in realistic sea conditions than the French destroyers and they could steam further. They carried two 21" torpedoes.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Goeben's small tube boilers were notoriously finicky. The Austro-Hungarians thought they were ridiculously complex when he was in Pola in July 1914. IIRC her engines nearly gave out on the last run into the Dardanelles. A fast run from Messina through the Straits of Gibraltar and across the Bay of Bicay, perhaps even having to loop north of Scotland, at persistent fast pace could well break his engines. And does Breslau have the coal to make a similar fast-paced run?

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

Also, he would want to be careful passing Gibraltar, it was defended by 14 x 9.2 inch guns.

I've been trying to find out what naval forces the RN had in the area and so far all I've found are 3 submarines at Gibraltar. They'd be A, B or C class boats that were armed with two 18" torpedo tubes and four torpedoes. According to Britannica.com the Strait of Gibraltar is 36 miles long and narrows to 8 miles.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

I've been trying to find out what naval forces the RN had in the area and so far all I've found are 3 submarines at Gibraltar. They'd be A, B or C class boats that were armed with two 18" torpedo tubes and four torpedoes. According to Britannica.com the Strait of Gibraltar is 36 miles long and narrows to 8 miles.

There were 11 gunboats too. The full disposition of the Royal Navy can be found here. Note that 2nd BCS, 1st CS, 3 LCs & 16 DDs are purely listed under Mediterranean
https://www.naval-history.net/WW1NavyBritishShips-Locations6Dist.htm

 

[I want to learn]

I've been trying to find out what naval forces the RN had in the area and so far all I've found are 3 submarines at Gibraltar. They'd be A, B or C class boats that were armed with two 18" torpedo tubes and four torpedoes. According to Britannica.com the Strait of Gibraltar is 36 miles long and narrows to 8 miles.

Were the straights mined to any significant extent? I believe they were later in the war, but it posed some technical challenges because of currents and it’s a major international waterway.

 

[weasel_airlift]

I've been trying to find out what naval forces the RN had in the area and so far all I've found are 3 submarines at Gibraltar. They'd be A, B or C class boats that were armed with two 18" torpedo tubes and four torpedoes. According to Britannica.com the Strait of Gibraltar is 36 miles long and narrows to 8 miles.

I can't say as I'd care to try to make an attack run on one of those in the currents of the strait.

 

[naraic]

I've been trying to find out what naval forces the RN had in the area and so far all I've found are 3 submarines at Gibraltar. They'd be A, B or C class boats that were armed with two 18" torpedo tubes and four torpedoes. According to Britannica.com the Strait of Gibraltar is 36 miles long and narrows to 8 miles.

3 B class submarines and 10 torpedo boats at Gibraltar

The torpedo boats date from the 1892 program but I can't find many details. I assume they would be useful in the straits.

I've had a look at my Conway's 1860-1905 & 1906-21 and after making allowance for what @Kantai Kessen wrote about Goeben being barely able to make 25 knots it looks like she could outrun every French capital ship (including the Courbets), every French armoured cruiser and every French protected cruiser.

Therefore, unless the French (by accident or design) encounter the Germans in a position where Souchon can't use his speed advantage or Goeben has machinery problems the Germans will be able to avoid most of the obstacles the French can put in their way. That is everything except a strong force of destroyers. I think the best tactic that the French could employ is to make Souchon steam as fast as possible to make his coal run out sooner or force a machinery breakdown.

Does anyone know if Goeben and Breslau's higher maximum speeds would be matched by higher economical cruising speeds?

Historically Goeben had to be coaled twice on route to Constantinople. Once in Messina and once by a collier off the Greek coast.

The Germans can steam away from the French but an encounter at night at close range or a prolonged period of steaming will cause trouble due to coal.

The French Admiral sent "Group A" of their Mediterranean Fleet to Gibraltar after the bombardment of Phillipeville and Bone by Goeben and Breslau. Not sure what ships this was but I'm presuming it would beat Goeben to the straits as they were sending them.

If Goeben is kept steaming in excess of 20 knots I believe they would be desperate for coal by the time they got to the Straits.

Goeben and Breslau would probably have a sustained cruising speed faster than the French but there was enough Entente ships in the Western Mediterranean that Goeben and Breslau would have to go pretty fast all the time.

 

[I want to learn]

I can't say as I'd care to try to make an attack run on one of those in the currents of the strait.

I feel like I can think of very few examples of submarines making successful torpedo attacks on maneuvering warships at speed (which Goeben almost certainly would be) during World War One. (And they were rare enough in WW2 ) Gibraltar is a decent choke point so they have that going for them, but otherwise the odds seem slim for a successful submarine interception.

 

[I want to learn]

The French Admiral sent "Group A" of their Mediterranean Fleet to Gibraltar after the bombardment of Phillipeville and Bone by Goeben and Breslau. Not sure what ships this was but I'm presuming it would beat Goeben to the straits as they were sending them.

I think Group A was the Danton class semidreadnoughts which assembled could probably tackle Goeben in a pitched battle but have uninspiring odds of forcing such an encounter due to their speed. It also looks like they were indeed dispatched west, but more for the sake of Algiers than Gibralter. (The French probably would have been relieved if Goeben left the Mediterranean because the threat to their troop convoys)

http://www.manorhouse.clara.net/book1/chapter3.htm

 

[Kantai Kessen]

That's feasible - but she would have to leave a week or so earlier (I once did Majorca to Gib to Gosport/Portsmouth in a total of about 9 days at 10 knots) and possibly longer as I am sure that no one could predict when 'the balloon' would go up - but it also frees up RN and MN assets from having to watch for her in the Eastern Med breaking out etc - so it works both ways.

Possible allows HMS Defence to reach Craddocks Squadron in time before Coronel?

My understanding is that OTL she was called back to help with Goeben after originally being sent south (and Craddock was still expecting her to turn up)

Even more importantly - would the Ottoman Empire still enter WW1?

Defence's reasons, meanwhile, for moving back and forth are partly due to Churchill, who wanted her back as part of the Dardanelles blockading squadron after it appeared that Spee had gone somewhere (when in fact he had gone somewhere else and bamboozled the Admiralty). Churchill forgot to tell Craddock this - and so everything went down the drainhole at Coronel.

 

[sonofpegasus]

Please note, Churchill did not fail to tell Craddock that the Defence was being re-tasked and would not sail to the Falklands. The failure was with the the RN operational staff failing to send a signal to Craddock informing him of the Admiralties change in instructions for HMS Defence. As the Political Chief of the Navy the buck stopped at Churchill but it was not his fault.

 

[ArtosStark]

Please note, Churchill did not fail to tell Craddock that the Defence was being re-tasked and would not sail to the Falklands. The failure was with the the RN operational staff failing to send a signal to Craddock informing him of the Admiralties change in instructions for HMS Defence. As the Political Chief of the Navy the buck stopped at Churchill but it was not his fault.

Sturdee in particular, AIUI. Supposedly Fisher never forgave Sturdee for that. Made it even worse when Sturdee got the credit for avenging Craddock at the Falklands.