For Want of a Word – Stolypin endures

Quite possibly. But as I see it, the southern mountains are of limited value to Italy and can be used as a bargaining chip to get concessions or support elsewhere. What is important is control of the Otranto Strait with Valona and its bay (Sazan included). Now I am pretty sure that the mistress of the seas, a certain Albion, is reluctant to see other naval powers controlling strategic choke points. Fiume and Trieste will control almost all the austrian trade and a significant part of the czech and hungarian trade. By turning the Adriatic into an italian lake, Rome gets valuable economic influence over the former AH states. It makes certain sense for the rest of the Great Powers not to give a big hinterland for Valona to Italy.

In OTL, even without an italian Valona, the Powers were very close to give south Albania/northern Epirus to Greece. Now they just have much more incentive.

It is not what Venizelos wants... It is what the Great Powers allow Venizelos to claim. Moreover, from what I get, is that it would have been difficult for the Italians to simply seize Valona, as it was part of an already established state- a state established as a compromise between the Powers. It is not the same with Fiume, spolia from the rotting corpse of the AH. If a unilateral action in Valona is unlikely, the fate of Albania will have to be the product of negotiations between Italy and the big ones. As always, it has to be the end result of compromises, as Italy doesn't have enough leverage over the other Naval Powers.

While you are generally right that North Epirus is not strictly necessary for Italy due to the control of Vlore (Italy already have military from 1915 control of the city and basically all southern and central Albania, North Epirus included having displaced Greeks troops inb 1916), Sonnino is hardly the one that quietly give up something freely even useless things and on the other side Italy will ask a demilitarization of North Epirus and Corfù and/or Athens giving up any claim over the dodecanese. The OTL agreement was much due to the situation with Jugoslavia and the need to concentrate there all the diplomatic effort, plus many thoughs that by giving up something in an area, Italy will have been compensated in another...here the scenario is different and Sonnino can go for an hard bargain and i don't know if Venizelos is ready to accept that terms.
In the end Italy will be 'convinced' to give up to Greece the zone? Probably, but i expect Sonnino to drag this question as long as possible.
Italy has faced somewhat less carnage in TTL, so they can pacify their chunk. They will face only irregulars after all. So, short term they can certainly keep their colony. Long-term it is difficult without a change in demographics. A potential policy that helps in maintaining the colony is land reclamation in the malarial coastal regions along with expelling the current peasants towards the interior and forming small italian agricultural communities in fertile enclaves along the coast. Or perhaps, have an agreement with Greece to expel the greek minority (in return for e.g. recognizing greek claims in northern Epirus) and settling the former greek villages (most of them on the coast after all) with Italians. A generation later, Italian Anatolia may develop to an algerian-style decolonization conflict that will result in partition of the region. That is the best plausible senario I can see for Italy to keep a small part of Anatolia until this day.

Honestly the italian zone becoming a full fledged colony it's a 50/50 people were a lot undecided over his fate, a group wanted create a colony but another wanted simply getting a treaty that will have given Italy economic dominance of the zone. In OTL the second group won (even if such victory was phyrric) and helped Ataturk against the Greeks so to keep the treaty that they have just signed with the Ottoman govemrment due to the Turkish seemigly too strong to be put down easilyand a permanent occupation being too costly...naturally Ataturk immediately throw such treaty in the dustbin as it was very loopsided, ITTL can go both way
 
This has been excellent so far, but with Russia seemingly getting everything it could ever want from the peace negotiations I worry that it might be straying into the realm of a wank. Of course their gains could turn to ash in their mouths as they are horribly overextended....
 
This has been excellent so far, but with Russia seemingly getting everything it could ever want from the peace negotiations I worry that it might be straying into the realm of a wank. Of course their gains could turn to ash in their mouths as they are horribly overextended....
Also ignoring a rather unhappy and complicated domestic scene, which Nicky is about to go back into with his usual "genius" moves.
 
This has been excellent so far, but with Russia seemingly getting everything it could ever want from the peace negotiations I worry that it might be straying into the realm of a wank. Of course their gains could turn to ash in their mouths as they are horribly overextended....
Considering it reverted into an absolute monarchy for the time being, I think it's safe to say that there's plenty of trouble on the horizon.
 
You mean the Ottomans offering "come and try to get it"? Unless the Brits are ready to go to war for the Greece' benefit, this can be quite interesting scenario, which is similar to the war of 1919-22 but with the Ottomans being in a better position because Russian Empire can offer considerably more than Bolshevik Russia circa 1921 even if it is not getting directly involved in the fighting: " In 1920 alone, Bolshevik Russia supplied the Kemalists with 6,000 rifles, over 5 million rifle cartridges, and 17,600 shells as well as 200.6 kg (442.2 lb) of gold bullion. In the subsequent two years the amount of aid increased." In OTL there were British, French and Italian troops in the Straits zone but in your TL there are none (anyway, the French and Italian troops left when the Turks advanced and the Brits refuse to take any actions against the Turks). BTW, is there still Ottoman Empire or Kemalist Turkey?
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The Turkish national army, took about 5,000 casualties in 2nd Innonu, ~37.000 in Kutahya-Eski Sehir and another ~38,000 at Sakarya. The only reason they retreated to Sakarya was that they came close to being encircled... and they still lost over a third of their field strength in both battles. Source on casualties the Turkish army staff histories which are available online (in Turkish). Mind you a good chunk of the casualties at Kutahya are deserters. But still losing ~37,000 out of a field strength of ~85,000 (source Edward Erickson in Salvation and Catastrophe) is hardly what you'd call a deliberate operation to lure the enemy.
 
The Turkish national army, took about 5,000 casualties in 2nd Innonu, ~37.000 in Kutahya-Eski Sehir and another ~38,000 at Sakarya. The only reason they retreated to Sakarya was that they came close to being encircled... and they still lost over a third of their field strength in both battles. Source on casualties the Turkish army staff histories which are available online (in Turkish). Mind you a good chunk of the casualties at Kutahya are deserters. But still losing ~37,000 out of a field strength of ~85,000 (source Edward Erickson in Salvation and Catastrophe) is hardly what you'd call a deliberate operation to lure the enemy.
I'm not sure how "being in a better position" due to the better supply situation contradicts to what you wrote. "Better" is not a complete reverse of the situation.
 
This has been excellent so far, but with Russia seemingly getting everything it could ever want from the peace negotiations I worry that it might be straying into the realm of a wank. Of course their gains could turn to ash in their mouths as they are horribly overextended....
And what is there to worry about? It is not a real history after all. Anyway, "Overextended" is meaningful when "extension" is far from your base and can't be easily reached or can be easily contested. In this schema extension of the Russian Empire is big but relatively secure and probably not much bigger or even smaller in size than expansion under CII, all these areas are adjacent to the "main" territory (with the exception of Straits area) and at least some of them are populated by the reasonably loyal people. Compare this with the mandates Britain got after WWI and her other colonies. This was overextension.
 

AlexG

Banned
I disagree with the Turkic Thrace and the situation in the Sea of Marmara.

Why not make it into a Russian lake in exchange for letting Greece or even Bulgaria taking over the unwanted parts of Thrace and even letting them expand further south along the Aegean coast?

That said, it might be more realistic that the deal is kind of screwy just like OTL.
 
I'm not sure how "being in a better position" due to the better supply situation contradicts to what you wrote. "Better" is not a complete reverse of the situation.
I've made a reasonably plausible scenario of the Greeks winning in 1920-21 in some detail here. I wouln't like to derail the discussion in the present thread, after all Greece is strictly peripheral to the main subject, but most of the logic for Lost Monkeys is applicable here, if anything all the more so.
 
I disagree with the Turkic Thrace and the situation in the Sea of Marmara.

Why not make it into a Russian lake in exchange for letting Greece or even Bulgaria taking over the unwanted parts of Thrace and even letting them expand further south along the Aegean coast?

That said, it might be more realistic that the deal is kind of screwy just like OTL.

I think that since Russia consented to West Thrace going to Greece, splitting East Thrace between Greece and Russia makes way more sense. The other alternative would be thanks to Russian backing Bulgaria getting off lightly, retaining West Thrace and having East Thrace split between Bulgaria and Russia. Ironically enough this could even get support from Wilson.
 
I've made a reasonably plausible scenario of the Greeks winning in 1920-21 in some detail here. I wouln't like to derail the discussion in the present thread, after all Greece is strictly peripheral to the main subject, but most of the logic for Lost Monkeys is applicable here, if anything all the more so.
There can be any number of scenarios in which any side of a conflict (not only this one) wins or loses depending upon author’s wish and, short of the complete insanities, most of them will be “logical“. The point remains that (in real life), a fighting side has a real chance to perform better if it has more guns, rifles, ammunition, etc. This will not necessarily result in a victory but to have more guns is better then not to have.

In this TL the map is reasonably close to one of OTL, the main practical differences are (a) an absence of the Greece-friendly British troops in Straits zone and (b) presence of the Russian troops around Bosporus and in Gallipoli. If the events start developing along approximately the same lines as in OTL and imperial Russia assumes the same Turkey-friendly position as bolshevik Russia did in OTL, then Turkey can easily get much more weapons than it did in OTL. This, assuming that otherwise Russia remains completely neutral and not trying to apply any diplomatic pressure on Greece. But, taking into an account that Greek victory is going to get the Russian holdings in the Straits completely surrounded, it is probably reasonable to assume that a full neutrality is not going to happen. Which, with a potential domino effect, may be relevant for the future narrative (which is up to @Stenkarazin to figure out).
 
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There can be any number of scenarios in which any side of a conflict (not only this one) wins or loses depending upon author’s wish and, short of the complete insanities, most of them will be “logical“. The point remains that (in real life), a fighting side has a real chance to perform better if it has more guns, rifles, ammunition, etc. This will not necessarily result in a victory but to have more guns is better then not to have.

In this TL the map is reasonably close to one of OTL, the main practical differences are (a) an absence of the Greece-friendly British troops in Straits zone and (b) presence of the Russian troops around Bosporus and in Gallipoli. If the events start developing along approximately the same lines as in OTL and imperial Russia assumes the same Turkey-friendly position as bolshevik Russia did in OTL, then Turkey can easily get much more weapons than it did in OTL. This, assuming that otherwise Russia remains completely neutral and not trying to apply any diplomatic pressure on Greece. But, taking into an account that Greek victory is going to get the Russian holdings in the Straits completely surrounded, it is probably reasonable to assume that a full neutrality is not going to happen. Which, with a potential domino effect, may be relevant for the future narrative (which is up to @Stenkarazin to figure out).
Russia has just annexed the Turkish capital and most of her eastern provinces. The chances it will perceive a Turkish nationalist movement in anything like a favourable light when it is obvious that she is going to be (one of) the prime target of said movement due to the annexation of Constantinople and the eastern vilayets in IMO between zilch and zero. And while Greece was mostly pro-British it still had excellent relations with Russia, come down to it Venizelos had gone as far as publicly supporting a Russian annexation of Constantinople in OTL. Maintaining good relations if Britain and Russia become actively hostile is going to be an interesting balancing act to say the least but this is something for the future if British-Russian relations collapse.

As to the side with the bigger battalions/more guns usually winning this is of course correct. Problem is that as of 1919 the side with the more guns is... Greece not Turkey and actually by a pretty heavy margin, the Greeks had a mobilized strength of over 325,000 men total, of which they committed about two thirds in Anatolia (224,000 men in 1922) when the Turkish nationalist army peaked at 208,000 in August 1922 and stood at 122,000 in the summer of 1921 and far less in 1919 and 1920. One might also note that the core around which the nationalist army was built was Kazim Karabekir's 6 divisions in eastern Anatolia. Too bad the TTL Yudenich has done a job on them thanks to the continued fighting and then they got disarmed and demobilised along with the forces in the other fronts since unlike OTL they were not operating in a vacuum. As long as the Greeks fail to make about every wrong political choice and command arrangement unlike OTL post November 1920 they should be good. (of course TTL with Nicky still around even a return of Constantine is not the political disaster it was in OTL, but that's a different matter that given the... relative dearth of monkeys in Greece is not very likely to arise)
 
Russia has just annexed the Turkish capital and most of her eastern provinces. The chances it will perceive a Turkish nationalist movement in anything like a favourable light when it is obvious that she is going to be (one of) the prime target of said movement due to the annexation of Constantinople and the eastern vilayets in IMO between zilch and zero. And while Greece was mostly pro-British it still had excellent relations with Russia, come down to it Venizelos had gone as far as publicly supporting a Russian annexation of Constantinople in OTL. Maintaining good relations if Britain and Russia become actively hostile is going to be an interesting balancing act to say the least but this is something for the future if British-Russian relations collapse.

As to the side with the bigger battalions/more guns usually winning this is of course correct. Problem is that as of 1919 the side with the more guns is... Greece not Turkey and actually by a pretty heavy margin, the Greeks had a mobilized strength of over 325,000 men total, of which they committed about two thirds in Anatolia (224,000 men in 1922) when the Turkish nationalist army peaked at 208,000 in August 1922 and stood at 122,000 in the summer of 1921 and far less in 1919 and 1920. One might also note that the core around which the nationalist army was built was Kazim Karabekir's 6 divisions in eastern Anatolia. Too bad the TTL Yudenich has done a job on them thanks to the continued fighting and then they got disarmed and demobilised along with the forces in the other fronts since unlike OTL they were not operating in a vacuum. As long as the Greeks fail to make about every wrong political choice and command arrangement unlike OTL post November 1920 they should be good. (of course TTL with Nicky still around even a return of Constantine is not the political disaster it was in OTL, but that's a different matter that given the... relative dearth of monkeys in Greece is not very likely to arise)
This is, of course, a legitimate and reasonable way of viewing the situation. However, it is not the only possible way of viewing it.

Look at the map provided by @Stenkarazin. The Greek success against the Turks means that the Russian holdings on the straits are completely surrounded by the Greek territories. This may be OK for a while but not a comfortable situation if relations with Britain are souring and Greece is considered a British client (or at least not Russian client). Explanation that this is a paranoia is irrelevant: a big part of the European policies of the XIX and XX had been driven by various paranoias. To start with, a reasoning for giving Gallipoli to Russia (not to give Greece a complete control over the Dardanelles) becomes not a very funny joke because Greece controls Sea of Marmara and can cut connection to Gallipoli at any moment. Then, if Bosporus is surrounded by Greek territories on both sides, Russian hold on it also becomes problematic. From that point of view, if a weakened Turkey holds part of the coastal area and the piece of land to the West of Bosporus, Russian position is much more secure. Among other reasons, Russian ability to deal with Turkey in the case it becomes excessively ambitious is much greater than with Greece. With the new border in Asiatic Turkey Russia can easily concentrate a considerable force and advance into Anatolia with support of the Black Sea fleet. So, short of a complete suicidal insanity of the Turkish leadership, Russia may feel quite secure from that corner. From the Russian perspective the danger is too close to zero to consider.

OTOH, there is no convenient base for doing something of the kind to Greece: where and how are you going to concentrate 150-200,000 (at least) troops to advance to the Greek territory? The Black Sea fleet becomes almost useless in maintaining the land operations except for the last ditch effort of protecting Bosporus and Greece itself is practically invulnerable. Marching through Bulgaria and Romania requires alliances and a complicated logistics. Is it likely that Greece is going to risk a hostile action? Not likely but if Greece is going to be too successful against the Ottomans (and you yourself brought up such a scenario) then who knows: success may go to their head and, if Russian government busy with some domestic problems, it may worth trying. Today’s friendship is not a complete dependency and can change overnight. From the Russian perspective the danger is small but realistic.

In other words, in TTL Russia is not interested in the excessive Greek success and may try to limit it without getting directly involved and without openly violating the recent agreements. The easiest way is to insist that the Greeks stick to the existing territorial agreement and when they don’t (as in OTL), provide Turkey with a lot of weaponry that is not needed anymore. If this does not help then scenario may develop in more than one way.
 
but my main question is about the Dardanelles
Historically, to control Constantinople you need to keep at least the Gallipoli peninsula. Notice that I mention Constantinople and not the Bosporus. You can control Bosporus without Gallipoli. But the city itself is open to the south and cannot be protected by forts. So if a power wants to simply keep the Bosporus closed, Gallipoli is not needed. However, if a power wants not to see Constantinople turning into rubble and forego its investment in the city, then the peninsula is needed.

Basically, the Gallipoli peninsula is a natural defensive fortress that is very difficult to conquer even with modern equipment. It is not a Port Arthur equivalent, just a huge Gibraltar or Corregidor or something like that.


Ottomans being in a better position because Russian Empire can offer considerably more than Bolshevik Russia circa 1921 even if it is not getting directly involved in the fighting
I am afraid you underestimate what Constantinople means to Turks, especially their elite. It is not what St Petersburg meant to Russians, but what Paris meant to French. In OTL they may had to move the administration to Ankara to be more secure against a foreign invasion, but Istanbul remained the cultural, economic and even political heart of the country. It is not like the Bolsheviks moved the capital to Moscow. Istanbul was always the center of turkish public life.

Imagine a power occupying Paris and another one Occitania. Would the Paris occupier make an alliance with the French and give them guns to fight the Occitania occupiers?

Therefore, the first and foremost target of turkish nationalism will be the country that controls Constantinople. So while I get why pragmatic russian diplomats will prefer a weak Turkey as a neighbour, I sincerely doubt they would give a single rifle or a kopek to turkish nationalists. They simply cannot focus turkish nationalism towards the Greeks or the Italians. The rifle will be used against Russia first. I think the lesson of what the city meant to contemporary Turks was well understood back then.

OTOH, there is no convenient base for doing something of the kind to Greece: where and how are you going to concentrate 150-200,000 (at least) troops to advance to the Greek territory? The Black Sea fleet becomes almost useless in maintaining the land operations except for the last ditch effort of protecting Bosporus and Greece itself is practically invulnerable
Well, we know it is easier to supply an army via sea rather than a land route with railroads and roads. The Black Sea is a russian economic zone and a russian lake. It is the equivalent of complaining about how to maintain operations in the Persian border and not use the Caspian Sea. If anything, it is very easy to supply Constantinople. A common border with Greece (the Greeks border only in Europe in the revised author's plans) gives more leverage to Russia and diplomatic weight vis-a-vis Greece. Greece that has a land border to Russia is a rather compliant one- at least in most cases.

We should also take into account the nature of the states in question: Russia is the worlds biggest land power. Greece due to geography will always have to be a weak land power. Big landpower next to weak land power: easier sleep to russian decision-takers.
 
October 1918 to March 1919 – The Paris Conference (III) – Constantinople and the Straits - The League of Nations
October 1918 to March 1919 – The Paris Conference (III) – Constantinople and the Straits - The League of Nations

“...the city of Constantinople, the western bank of the Bosphorus, of the Sea of Marmara and of the Dardanelles, as well as southern Thrace to the Enez-Midye line... and... that part of the Asiatic shore that lies between the Bosphorus, the Sakarya River and a point to be determined on the Gulf of Izmit, and the islands of the Sea of Marmara, the Imbros Islands and the Tenedos Islands.”

Constantinople Agreement of 1915.


The most problematic question regarding Turkey was of course the fate of Constantinople and the Straits. Russia wanted what has been promised, ie. the full implementation of the agreement of 1915, all the way from Constantinople to Gallipoli to Imbros and Tenedos to the Asiatic shore.

But in 1917, Britain and France had also promised the Greeks that they would get a sizeable part of Eastern Thrace and the Straits. Venizelos arrived to the Paris Conference determined to get as much as he could, both in Thrace and Asia minor. If Russia was to receive Constantinople, then Greece would demand Imbros and Tenedos, as well as Gallipoli and most of Eastern Thrace.

Wilson, who did not consider himself bound to the Constantinople Agreement of 1915, pleaded for the Straits to be fully demilitarized, and Constantinople to become a “free city” overseen by a Quadrilateral Commission made of France, Britain, Russia and Greece. Furthermore, he held firm that “the Turkish portion of the Ottoman empire should be assured a secure sovereignty”, which severely impaired French efforts to redirect Greece’s claims (and to a lesser extent Italy’s) to extended annexations in Asia Minor.

A pragmatic man, Kudashev was willing to accept Wilson’s proposal regarding Constantinople in exchange for extensive occupation rights in the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus, which would, in effect, make the Straits a Russian lake. He also wanted to limit Greek gains in Thrace as much as possible and let the Sultan keep most of Eastern Thrace and the Eastern shores of Marmara: Kudashev reckoned that a weakened Ottoman State spread between Europe and Asia would be entirely dependent on Russian goodwill. This was better, in any case, that to see Gallipoli and Constantinople become enclaves within a great Greek kingdom.

But Prime Minister Trepov, who reasoned mainly in terms of internal politics, was not ready to let go of Constantinople. He could not face the thought of coming back to his Emperor without Tsargrad in his bag (“Sazonov and his friends would eat us alive!”). Obsessed by the thought of coming back to Petrograd and “offer Tsagrard at the feet of His Majesty”, he was willing to let Greece and Britain have their ways in the Dardanelles. Thus, the Russian party became divided at the worst possible moment.

The negotiations became fraught with tension: the Greek delegation, who frantically lobbied the British and the American, spared no effort to stall the discussions. The mood of French public opinion was also evolving. French diplomats, afraid of antagonizing Russia, were still committed to the Constantinople Agreement of 1915, but in the press, the idea of letting Russia annex Constantinople was less and less popular: it was partly due to the influence of the Turcophile lobby, which had always been an active group of influence in French culture and politics. The war, and then news of the massacres enacted by the Turks in Armenia and Assyria had for a time silenced the outspoken Turcophiles, but with the end of the war they had resumed their action. As the writer and outspoken Mishellene Pierre Loti[1] wrote in Le Matin: “Are we really to grant the jewel of the Bosphore to the degenerate Greek mongrels or the fanatic barbarians of the North? This would be a spat on four centuries of French-Turkish friendship”. Their lobbying didn’t really alter France’s commitment to the Constantinople Agreement, but it somewhat weakened the French diplomats’ resolve in the discussions.

In many ways, the negotiations on the Straits stalled not much because the entanglement of so many claims, but because the Russian handling of Western Poland had opened a rift between Russia and her Western Allies. Sure, no one was willing to go to war to prevent Russia from having its way, but British, American and Italian diplomats were decided to make common cause in order to thwart Russia's ambitions as much as possible. The French, having to compose with an increasingly anti-Russian press, exhausted themselves trying to mediate between the two factions.

Tensions were only heightened by the situation on the ground: Russian ships moored in the Golden Horn, Russian troops in Pera and Galata, British in Scutari and Kadikoy, Greek troops in Imbros, Tenedos, and soon in Gallipoli, encouraged by the British who wanted to put Russia before a “fait accompli”, not unlike Russia had done in Western Poland. When the Russians learned of the Greek landing in the Dardanelles, they became incensed: plans were made to prepare a military operation that would seize "a number of points on the European and Asiatic shores". Increasingly, people like Trepov or Stavka Chief-of-Staff Gurko persuaded themselves that only a show of strength would allow Russia to obtain what was her's.

But, as the Russian negotiators battled it out, disquieting news started to arrive from Russia, which required Trepov to prepare his return post-haste. This led him to quickly mollify his position so as to reach an agreement as soon as possible. Finally, after long negotiations late into the nights of March, the Allies managed to reach a solution: Russia would receive Constantinople and its defensive hinterland in full property, provided that real autonomy be granted to the citizens of Constantinople (“yes, yes, of course” nodded Trepov). In return, adding to her gains in Asia Minor, Greece would receive not only Imbros and Tenedos, but also Gallipoli and all of Eastern Thracia, from where the Sultan was to be expelled. Thus, the Ottoman Court would relocate to Bursa, the antique capital of the sons of Osman, from whence they had in illo tempore spread their wings to conquer half the world up to the gates of Vienna. Sic transit gloria mundi.

Italy, who didn’t look with unmitigated joy on Greece’s gains, was given a larger “sphere of influence” that originally envisioned, extended eastwards to the detriment of French Cilicia (the French were willing to make the necessary sacrifices in their eagerness to put these tense negotiations behind them). The nature of the Italian “sphere of influence” in Southern Anatolia was left deliberately vague. In private talks, Kudashev assured Sonnino that Russia would not object if Italy were to turn this zone into a full-fledged colonial possession.

Thus was resolved the last, and most sticking issue of the Peace Conference. The last month of the Conference (March 1919) was spent in working out the details of President Wilson’s grand scheme of a “League of Nations” that would maintain world peace forever or something like that. Nicholas II, who before the war had thrown his weight behind the Hague Conventions on disarmament, was all too eager to get on board. Despite the Peace Conference ending with soothing unanimity and grand declarations in favour of world peace, the tensions on Poland and the Straits had left their mark: many British, French and Italian diplomats returned home to face a critical public opinion, persuaded that Russia and her Serbian ally had been granted way too much leeway during the negotiations.

***

For the Russian delegation, the last weeks of the Paris Peace Conference looked, in retrospect, like a dinner party in a wagon-restaurant about to derail. The setting is nice, the food is rich, there seems to be no bound to one’s appetite (even if other guests may mutter about the reach of your fork)… but gradually, imperceptibly, the rumbling of the train from an innocuous background noise grows deafening, the table shakes and rattles, cutlery is flying, red wine is all over the heretofore immaculate tablecloth, the rich and delicate foods that you were about to savour are now spread all over your shirt, and, as you look outside the window in the dark wide night, you realize that the train in is actually leaping into the abyss, and if you manage to see anything before crashing to your death, it is probably a red cockerel, blazing a frightful bright in the unforgiving vastness of the Russian plain.


[1] OTL as well, Pierre Loti was fanatically pro-Turk and anti-Greek. Here, he extends his disdain to the Russians.
[2] Probably with the same provision as OTL about a referendum within 5 years. Population exchange seems unavoidable.

* So, I have edited the previous installment, which now concerns only Austria-Hungary and the fate of Turkey sans the Straits. This new installment retcons the previous one regarding the fate of the Straits. It was necessary for two reasons: 1/ I didn't take into account that Greece would much favour gains in Eastern Thracia rather than Bithynia - 2/ I didn't take into account my own narrative about the Western Poland Crisis opening a rift between most of the Western Allies and Russia. Negotiations needed to be less in Russia's advantage. So basically now Russia gets Constantinople but has to sacrifice Gallipoli and Eastern Thracia to achieve that. The Russian final position is explained by the crisis which is started to develop at home and which will be the topic of the next installment. Too bad for the "Russian Corregidor" of Gallipoli, which I looked forward to turn into a new Sebastopol. Well, Constantinople will have to play the part.

Yes, this is extremely fragile, even more that the previous solution. Tensions and crisis' between Russia, Greece and Turkey are to be expected.​
 
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A Map of Europe & the Middle-East after the Paris Conference - March 1919
A Map of Europe & the Middle-East after the Paris Conference - March 1919

Paris Peace Conference - 1919.png


Notes:

- This map retcons the previous one;
- Caveat about the accuracy of the drawing of the borders still apply;
- Russia gets only Constantinople, but extended to the defensive line (the previous map wasn't clear on that point);
- Thanks to British support and the growing antagonism between Russia vs. Britain-USA-Italy (with France desperately trying to square the circle), Greece receives all of Eastern Thracia and the Gallipoli Peninsula - Yes, from a strategic view point it's not ideal for Russia, but by that stage of the Paris Conference, with trouble brewing at home, Trepov is mainly interested in the symbolic, propaganda victory of achieving the age-old "historic ambition" of Russia.
- Accordingly, Greece's newly acquired territories in Asia Minor are reduced more or less to OTL (a portion of Ionia centered around Smyrna);
- Italy gets a large, ill-defined "zone of influence" stretching from the ancien Rhodiôn Peraia to Cilicia. As noted by @lukedalton and others, the question for the Italian government will be: what to do with it?
- As debated by @Lascaris, @alexmilman, @Hertog Jann and others, this solution, as much as the previous one, provides for interesting choices regarding the triangle Russia-Greece-Turkish National movement.
 
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Yep, Sazonov was also against forming of Yugoslavia.
Sazonov isn't there anymore, but it does not really matter. Like OTL, the Croats have voted to join Belgrade, and, like OTL, the Allies support Serbian annexations in Vojvodina, Bosnia, Dalmatia etc. It would be quite unlikely for Russia to oppose Serbia annexing these areas. The only area where Russia opposes Serbian irredentism is Montenegro, because the Romanov family is closely linked with the Montenegrine royal family.
 
Sazonov isn't there anymore, but it does not really matter. Like OTL, the Croats have voted to join Belgrade, and, like OTL, the Allies support Serbian annexations in Vojvodina, Bosnia, Dalmatia etc. It would be quite unlikely for Russia to oppose Serbia annexing these areas. The only area where Russia opposes Serbian irredentism is Montenegro, because the Romanov family is closely linked with the Montenegrine royal family.
Oh I agree, I even think that Russia would let Serbia take even Montenegro. I just wanted to point that out.
 
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